beasley vs. demint, sc runoff

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I agree. Inez Tenenbaum (the Democrat running) is being praised by the D's. They really think she's going to keep the seat. The Republican (whether its Beasley or DeMint) won't "crush" her but I think it'll be a pretty comfortable win for the GOP. SC - GOP pickup!

*cough* textiles *cough* have made the Carolina's *very* hard to predict this year.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I go to school in South Carolina, and do some political work there. It is not hard to predict. Easy GOP win.

Inez has a 2-4% chance at most.

Where in SC?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Furman, in Greenville (DeMint's area).

Results of 2000 Presidential election in Furman:

Bush: 71%
Gore: 26%

Not exactly representative of SC as a whole is it?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Huh? Where'd you get that? Have it for other schools?

I didn't say Furman was representative- actually, most students can't vote in SC because were from other states- but that I am involved with the political scene. Look at all the recent statewide elections: Sanford beats Hodges, Graham beats whoever (I forgot already)...

Tenenbaum has no chance. Trust me, this is not going to be close. Bowles has better odds in NC.

They were the results for Furman precinct.
And seeing as you're the poster that thinks that VA is swinging *towards* the GOP, I don't think I'll be a trusting your judgement.

Oh yeah... remind me again... who was it that Hodges beat in 1998?
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Yes, Bowles does have a better chance in NC than Tenenbaum in SC. SC is a tossup, NC leans towards Bowles.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Hodges won because Beasley took the Confederate flag off the statehouse. That is the only reason.

As far as Virginia leaning more GOP, I don't even see how it is arguable. I believe that is the position of the US' top political scientist, Larry Sabato of UVA, and the top political scientist with regards to the South, Merle Black of Emory. Perhaps if you lived here you might understand the political situation better.

In the meantime, examine Virginia's Congressional delegation and compare it to that of ten years ago.

Tenenbaum odds: 20:1
Bowles odds: 18:5

I trust Sabato less than you

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That's fine, just so you realize your view is a minority one- so who you "trust" appears based on who says what you want to hear...

An idiot like Sabato does not=a majority

[Filuwaúrdjan]

"Oh yeah... remind me again... who was it that Hodges beat in 1998?"

how are governor hodges and governor barnes doing these days?  id imagine they have a lot of spare time on their hands.

Doing what all ex-governers do: plot

[Filuwaúrdjan]

in the case of barnes, he believed too much of his own hype.  he honestly believed he was a rising national star and had little to worry about in the election.

hodges was a weak governor from the begining, who won the election by beating another weak governor.  hodges is a pretty decent guy.  why didnt he run for the senate this year?

Barnes lost when he should have won, Hodges did better in 2002 than I thought he would.
Dunno why he didn't run for Senate though... maybe the SC Dems wanted to present a united image as opposed to the warring state GOP?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Hodges did better in 2002 than I thought he would.
Dunno why he didn't run for Senate though... maybe the SC Dems wanted to present a united image as opposed to the warring state GOP?

We've only had two years to forget what was so bad about Hodges, but six years to forget about Beasley.  The way DeMint and Beasley are tearing into each other  (the campaign has gone almost entirely negative) I'd say that if we had four weeks between the primary and the run off instead of only two that Tannenbaum would be almost certain of victory in November.  As it is, it looks like Bush will have to decide whether to spend some valuable campaign time in SC in order to shore up what should have been a secure GOP pickup in the Senate.

What is it with the NC and SC GOP ripping themselves into little pieces this year?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

if i were a south carolinian, id seriously think about voting for inez over beasley (should he win the nomination)

al, the nc gop isnt ripping tself to shreds.  the party is united over richard burr.  i love burr, he was my congressman for awhile.  he is a tad too protectionist for me, but i believe that is just 'talk'.

there is large field of republicans running for governor.  it's a pretty sorry lot.  im not sure who im going to vote for in the primary, probably ballantine.  im most likely voting for easley in the general election.

I know that the NC GOP is united behind Burr...
Wasn't there that messy business involving the GOP's Co-Speaker a few weeks back?
Or was that SC as well?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I dont' think Beasley is going to win the nomination. Condon and Ravenel both made public endorsements for DeMint so I'm guessing that most of their supporters with vote for him.

In NC, I'm glad to see that the GOP is united for Burr. All these people saying that Bowles will hold the seat for the Dems is wishful thinking on their part. NC is going GOP.

As for the NC Governor's race, there are 6 Republicans running.  It seems like Ballantine is the most conservative and has the best shot at winning. Unfortunatley, though, for us Republicans, I think the Dems hold this seat.

WalterMitty, why are you going to vote for Easley?

IMO Bowles is a slight favourite over Burr (and no, this isn't wishful thinking) Had Burr been involved in a nasty primary fight, Bowles would walk it.
And Easley will be re-elected Easley (Groans...)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I agree with all the GOP pickups you have listed there but I'm not so sure about Lousiana. Three Democrats running will split that vote up nicely (mainly between Kennedy and John) but I don't know if Vitter (R) will get enough to prevent the run-off.  I also agree with you about Tenenbaum.

Most of this is just wishful thinking on the part of the Dems. They know we have some great chances at pickups down south and have a hard time admitting it. I remember hearing someone say that the Dems still have a chance in Georgia. How can someone keep a straight face saying that?

There is no way that Vitter will get even close to winning 50% +1 in the first round. In fact I'd be willing to bet real money on it
LA is first and foremost a Democrat state. Sure it doesn't always vote that way, and it's Democrats run the whole gamut from Dixiecrat conservatives to near-Socialist Longesque populists, but you should never, ever forget it.
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Re: Wishful thinking, whether you wanna admit this or not (I guess not) "Neo-Populism" is rising in rural areas of the South... I dunno whether or not it will be enough to help the Dems hold NC, SC and LA (oh and GA. Technically hold at least) as it's very much a new thing... and is one of the most interesting political trends in the U.S at the moment (who'd have seen it coming 10 years ago?) and I'm still trying to work out when and where it started.

As far as GA goes, the Dems *do* have a strong candidate, and although I personally don't see her winning, the GOP ain't waltzing it *at all*...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

yes al, there was a nasty fight over richard morgan a few eeks ago.  that fight was started by a bunch of right wingers.  they are mad about morgan entering into a power sharing agreenment in the state house with jim black.

the republicans in raleigh are completely inept, and so are the democrats , for that matter.  every freakin year, the republicans (who believe in the right of the individual, mind you) block a public referendum on the lottery.  it's really quite sad that they are so backwards/

anyway, richard morgan is involved in a *nasty* primary fight in moore county.  he will be lucky to survive.  im rooting for him, though.

My memory works!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

AuH2O... are you stoned or something?
Your logic is so woolly I'm not going to bother wasting time on it...
I'll tell you this though: there is no way that Bush will win NC by 14 points.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Look, arrogant prick- you haven't proven ANYTHING. You make predictions, without reasons, and without historical precedent, while I make predictions based on such things. We'll see who is right.

I actually put money on stuff like this- and win a lot of money on stuff like this. I don't care if you like reality or not... you can stay in your dream world for all I care. But, if you don't have something even remotely constructive to say, don't say it.

In the past two years something happend to the economy of the Carolina's which has destabalised politics in them.
You *ought* to know what it is...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And, if you were 1/10th as smart as you think you are, you would understand the complexities of voting behavior. Job losses from reductions in certain types of manufacturing (mostly to machines, by the way, very few jobs are truly 'exported') are a relatively minor issue.

Greenville, SC, for instance, benefits tremendously from free trade. BMW North America is HQed in Spartanburg (next door) and Michelin NA is HQed in Greenville. There are literally hundreds of foreign corporations employing thousands of people. Raleigh, Charlotte, and Greensboro likewise benefit.

So, please endeavor to know something about the issues you claim mastery of. You better be around after the election to eat your crow. That's all I ask.

Not how the poor bastards who lost their jobs see it though is it? There had been a growing (but low key) resentment in rural areas of the whole sunbelt thing *anyway*... but the collapse of the textile industry appears to have been the last straw for many people (rightly or wrongly that isn't the point).
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Job losses are *never* a minor issue.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

"Most Southerners- whites at least"

Wow. And here's me thinking that Blacks were people and voters too.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Are you saying most Southerners are non-white?

Maybe you're even stupider than I thought.

I am well aware that a majority of people in every state south of the Mason-Dixon line and East of the Sabine are white. I have spent a lot of time looking into Racial and Sectional patterns in said area.
I happen to find this statement disturbing:

"Most Southerners- whites at least"

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Most= "majority."

Let me rephrase for your politically correct needs, Mr. Thought Policeman

"A plurality of Southerners, primarily whites, will not consider voting for a Democrat."

Dude, you seriously need a life.

Well I'd dispute that a plurality of Southerners would "not consider voting for a Democrat".
The main problem the Dems have in the South is the fact that a lot of poor rural whites stopped voting 30 odd years ago. This is the DNC's own fault.
IF the rise of Neo-Populism can get these people voting again and if at the same time the suburbs do a NOVA, the South might swing back our way.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Rural whites voted for Sonny Perdue. Ask Roy Barnes.

It was the fault of Barnes and Barnes alone. And he was no Neo-Populist.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

give southerners credit.  they know a stupid idea when they see one.

neo-populism=stupid idea.

why cant you just call it populism?  i reckon george wallace and that crowd tainted that word.

Neo means new

[Filuwaúrdjan]

yeah but im just as wary of the neo-populists as i am the old populists.  the neo-populists arent racists, but they play on fear just like the old populists did.

I'm not sure whether it's fear or resentment... I'm guessing a mix of the two... likewhys I'm not sure when it started and where it started... if it's deep rooted it could be around for a while.

Logically it *should* be a direct result of sunbelt development (every action has an equal and opposite reaction) but I've not looked at it in enough detail to be sure. It might be a result of other factors though... time to look at it in detail I guess...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well Boss Tweed called for a 6-8% win for Beasley. I didn't think Beasely would win but I didn't expect DeMint to do that well! SC - GOP pickup!

Possible GOP pickup. It's too close for me to call... even a slight favourite...