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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  beasley vs. demint, sc runoff
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Author Topic: beasley vs. demint, sc runoff  (Read 9665 times)
AuH2O
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« Reply #25 on: June 17, 2004, 09:58:05 pm »

I think this race is about image, not real differences at this point. I support DeMint because of Beasley's handling of the Confederate flag issue when he was Governor, but DeMint might well have done the same thing.

Without knowing either guy, I'm not real qualified to say, but it seems to me like DeMint might be the sharper of the two. But Beasley is politically astute and principled. Either one will crush the Democrat.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #26 on: June 17, 2004, 10:07:14 pm »

I agree. Inez Tenenbaum (the Democrat running) is being praised by the D's. They really think she's going to keep the seat. The Republican (whether its Beasley or DeMint) won't "crush" her but I think it'll be a pretty comfortable win for the GOP. SC - GOP pickup!
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #27 on: June 18, 2004, 03:11:50 am »

I agree. Inez Tenenbaum (the Democrat running) is being praised by the D's. They really think she's going to keep the seat. The Republican (whether its Beasley or DeMint) won't "crush" her but I think it'll be a pretty comfortable win for the GOP. SC - GOP pickup!

*cough* textiles *cough* have made the Carolina's *very* hard to predict this year.
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AuH2O
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« Reply #28 on: June 18, 2004, 06:50:56 am »

I go to school in South Carolina, and do some political work there. It is not hard to predict. Easy GOP win.

Inez has a 2-4% chance at most.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #29 on: June 18, 2004, 06:52:14 am »

I go to school in South Carolina, and do some political work there. It is not hard to predict. Easy GOP win.

Inez has a 2-4% chance at most.

Where in SC?
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AuH2O
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« Reply #30 on: June 18, 2004, 06:55:01 am »

Furman, in Greenville (DeMint's area).
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #31 on: June 18, 2004, 07:05:36 am »

Furman, in Greenville (DeMint's area).

Results of 2000 Presidential election in Furman:

Bush: 71%
Gore: 26%

Not exactly representative of SC as a whole is it?
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AuH2O
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« Reply #32 on: June 18, 2004, 07:14:50 am »

Huh? Where'd you get that? Have it for other schools?

I didn't say Furman was representative- actually, most students can't vote in SC because were from other states- but that I am involved with the political scene. Look at all the recent statewide elections: Sanford beats Hodges, Graham beats whoever (I forgot already)...

Tenenbaum has no chance. Trust me, this is not going to be close. Bowles has better odds in NC.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #33 on: June 18, 2004, 07:20:21 am »

Huh? Where'd you get that? Have it for other schools?

I didn't say Furman was representative- actually, most students can't vote in SC because were from other states- but that I am involved with the political scene. Look at all the recent statewide elections: Sanford beats Hodges, Graham beats whoever (I forgot already)...

Tenenbaum has no chance. Trust me, this is not going to be close. Bowles has better odds in NC.

They were the results for Furman precinct.
And seeing as you're the poster that thinks that VA is swinging *towards* the GOP, I don't think I'll be a trusting your judgement.

Oh yeah... remind me again... who was it that Hodges beat in 1998?
---
Yes, Bowles does have a better chance in NC than Tenenbaum in SC. SC is a tossup, NC leans towards Bowles.
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AuH2O
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« Reply #34 on: June 18, 2004, 07:37:03 am »

Hodges won because Beasley took the Confederate flag off the statehouse. That is the only reason.

As far as Virginia leaning more GOP, I don't even see how it is arguable. I believe that is the position of the US' top political scientist, Larry Sabato of UVA, and the top political scientist with regards to the South, Merle Black of Emory. Perhaps if you lived here you might understand the political situation better.

In the meantime, examine Virginia's Congressional delegation and compare it to that of ten years ago.

Tenenbaum odds: 20:1
Bowles odds: 18:5
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #35 on: June 18, 2004, 07:43:43 am »

Hodges won because Beasley took the Confederate flag off the statehouse. That is the only reason.

As far as Virginia leaning more GOP, I don't even see how it is arguable. I believe that is the position of the US' top political scientist, Larry Sabato of UVA, and the top political scientist with regards to the South, Merle Black of Emory. Perhaps if you lived here you might understand the political situation better.

In the meantime, examine Virginia's Congressional delegation and compare it to that of ten years ago.

Tenenbaum odds: 20:1
Bowles odds: 18:5

I trust Sabato less than you
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AuH2O
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« Reply #36 on: June 18, 2004, 07:50:02 am »

That's fine, just so you realize your view is a minority one- so who you "trust" appears based on who says what you want to hear...
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #37 on: June 18, 2004, 07:55:35 am »

That's fine, just so you realize your view is a minority one- so who you "trust" appears based on who says what you want to hear...

An idiot like Sabato does not=a majority
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #38 on: June 18, 2004, 08:33:24 am »

"Oh yeah... remind me again... who was it that Hodges beat in 1998?"

how are governor hodges and governor barnes doing these days?  id imagine they have a lot of spare time on their hands.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #39 on: June 18, 2004, 12:58:09 pm »

"Oh yeah... remind me again... who was it that Hodges beat in 1998?"

how are governor hodges and governor barnes doing these days?  id imagine they have a lot of spare time on their hands.

Doing what all ex-governers do: plot
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #40 on: June 18, 2004, 01:54:42 pm »

in the case of barnes, he believed too much of his own hype.  he honestly believed he was a rising national star and had little to worry about in the election.

hodges was a weak governor from the begining, who won the election by beating another weak governor.  hodges is a pretty decent guy.  why didnt he run for the senate this year?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #41 on: June 18, 2004, 01:58:25 pm »

in the case of barnes, he believed too much of his own hype.  he honestly believed he was a rising national star and had little to worry about in the election.

hodges was a weak governor from the begining, who won the election by beating another weak governor.  hodges is a pretty decent guy.  why didnt he run for the senate this year?

Barnes lost when he should have won, Hodges did better in 2002 than I thought he would.
Dunno why he didn't run for Senate though... maybe the SC Dems wanted to present a united image as opposed to the warring state GOP?
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True Federalist
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« Reply #42 on: June 19, 2004, 12:48:31 am »

Which candidate is more moderate?
Except for trade, the two are indistinguishable on the issues, but Beasley spent more time courting the social conservatives than DeMint did while DeMint spent more time courting the fiscal conservatives than Beasley did.  DeMint would be the stronger candidate, but the runoff is a tossup right now, but as The State said of the debate on WIS-TV on Tuesday, the winner of the debate was Tannenbaum.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #43 on: June 19, 2004, 06:28:09 am »

Hodges did better in 2002 than I thought he would.
Dunno why he didn't run for Senate though... maybe the SC Dems wanted to present a united image as opposed to the warring state GOP?
We've only had two years to forget what was so bad about Hodges, but six years to forget about Beasley.  The way DeMint and Beasley are tearing into each other  (the campaign has gone almost entirely negative) I'd say that if we had four weeks between the primary and the run off instead of only two that Tannenbaum would be almost certain of victory in November.  As it is, it looks like Bush will have to decide whether to spend some valuable campaign time in SC in order to shore up what should have been a secure GOP pickup in the Senate.

What is it with the NC and SC GOP ripping themselves into little pieces this year?
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #44 on: June 19, 2004, 09:41:50 am »

if i were a south carolinian, id seriously think about voting for inez over beasley (should he win the nomination)

al, the nc gop isnt ripping tself to shreds.  the party is united over richard burr.  i love burr, he was my congressman for awhile.  he is a tad too protectionist for me, but i believe that is just 'talk'.

there is large field of republicans running for governor.  it's a pretty sorry lot.  im not sure who im going to vote for in the primary, probably ballantine.  im most likely voting for easley in the general election.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #45 on: June 19, 2004, 09:54:09 am »

I dont' think Beasley is going to win the nomination. Condon and Ravenel both made public endorsements for DeMint so I'm guessing that most of their supporters with vote for him.

In NC, I'm glad to see that the GOP is united for Burr. All these people saying that Bowles will hold the seat for the Dems is wishful thinking on their part. NC is going GOP.

As for the NC Governor's race, there are 6 Republicans running.  It seems like Ballantine is the most conservative and has the best shot at winning. Unfortunatley, though, for us Republicans, I think the Dems hold this seat.

WalterMitty, why are you going to vote for Easley?
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AuH2O
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« Reply #46 on: June 19, 2004, 10:05:19 am »

It amazes me that people think Inez is a good candidate. Do any of you know who she beat to become whatever low-level official she is? A guy with a serious speech impediment. The GOP didn't care enough about the post to run someone stronger... and she still didn't run away with it.

Democrats will lose in NC, SC, GA, FL, and probably LA. They can only hope to pull upsets out west to prevent a complete rout.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #47 on: June 19, 2004, 10:13:03 am »

I agree with all the GOP pickups you have listed there but I'm not so sure about Lousiana. Three Democrats running will split that vote up nicely (mainly between Kennedy and John) but I don't know if Vitter (R) will get enough to prevent the run-off.  I also agree with you about Tenenbaum.

Most of this is just wishful thinking on the part of the Dems. They know we have some great chances at pickups down south and have a hard time admitting it. I remember hearing someone say that the Dems still have a chance in Georgia. How can someone keep a straight face saying that?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #48 on: June 19, 2004, 11:02:31 am »

if i were a south carolinian, id seriously think about voting for inez over beasley (should he win the nomination)

al, the nc gop isnt ripping tself to shreds.  the party is united over richard burr.  i love burr, he was my congressman for awhile.  he is a tad too protectionist for me, but i believe that is just 'talk'.

there is large field of republicans running for governor.  it's a pretty sorry lot.  im not sure who im going to vote for in the primary, probably ballantine.  im most likely voting for easley in the general election.

I know that the NC GOP is united behind Burr...
Wasn't there that messy business involving the GOP's Co-Speaker a few weeks back?
Or was that SC as well?
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giving birth to thunder
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« Reply #49 on: June 19, 2004, 11:04:24 am »

Furman, in Greenville (DeMint's area).

do you go to Bob Jones "University"?
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