Which county result stunned you the most in 2020?

[EJ24]

?

[Calthrina950]

Miami-Dade County, Florida. The extent of the swing towards Trump was shocking, and it was against a Democratic nominee who was not Bernie Sanders.

[iceman]

I think there was already a thread about this.

Nonetheless, these are the top 5 most amazing:

1. Miami-Dade, FL
2. Zapata, TX
3. Arapahoe, CO
4. Hennepin, MN
5. Henry, GA


One amazing thing to note, Hennepin county voted to the left of Wayne county, MI? I don't think this has happened in over a hundred years.

[seeking mystical annihilation]

Mahoning. The other Ohio R flip, Lorain, was won by Clinton by only 0.1%, more than enough for Oberlin students being at home to flip it, but I fully expected Mahoning to pivot back a bit like Lackawanna. Instead, the last redoubt of the Dems' former firewall along the Eastern Ohio border fell, and with it any real hope of the state remaining competitive in the future. As Youngstown has been hemorrhaging population for ages, I wondered aloud in another thread how much of the shift in margin could be explained by Democratic-leaning voters emigrating in the interim--who knows, maybe they moved to PHX or ATL.

[Sailor Haumea]

Oklahoma County and Monongalia County not flipping.

[Interlocutor]

Like every other "Biggest surprise of the 2020 election" thread, I feel I'll get ridiculed for any answer that isn't Miami-Dade or Zapata

[Trump v. Wong Kim Ark]

Aside from Zapata and Miami-Dade, I’ll add Inyo, CA to the list. That was way out of left field.

[It's Time.]

How many of these threads do we need?

[Chips]

Mahoning.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Aside from Zapata and Miami-Dade, I’ll add Inyo, CA to the list. That was way out of left field.

It's also super easy to describe to people.

"Where's Inyo?"

"Death Valley Country."

"Ohhhhh.  Okay."

[BaldEagle1991]

Zapata County, TX & Miami-Dade County, FL

[Sir Mohamed]

Miami-Dade, and it isn't even close. I thought Biden will somewhat underperform HRC, but by no stretch of imagination did I expect him just winning by a mere 7 pts.

[texas_progressive]

I was really surprised by Biden's underperformance in the Mississippi Delta area of Eastern Arkansas. Lee County AR swung a whole 12% to Trump.

[mileslunn]

Aside from Zapata and Miami-Dade, I’ll add Inyo, CA to the list. That was way out of left field.

I would add Talbot County, Maryland.  I earlier did a thread on counties that hadn't voted Democrat since 1964 that Biden would win pre-election and neither Inyo or Talbot were mentioned by anyone.  All the others that flipped were and you could see them trending that way.

[Interlocutor]

How many of these threads do we need?

Apparently as many as it takes for people to remember the names Miami & Zapata

[SingingAnalyst]

I think there was already a thread about this.

Nonetheless, these are the top 5 most amazing:

1. Miami-Dade, FL
2. Zapata, TX
3. Arapahoe, CO
4. Hennepin, MN
5. Henry, GA


One amazing thing to note, Hennepin county voted to the left of Wayne county, MI? I don't think this has happened in over a hundred years.

I agree, that is noteworthy.

Wayne County, MI outside Detroit has many areas, such as Downriver, that have their own political subculture, as does Macomb County. Working-class Garden City, in which only about 7-8% of adults 25+ had college degrees as of 1990, voted Trump. Downscale Taylor ("Taylortucky") voted Biden, but barely, and even in racially mixed Romulus, home of Detroit's Metro Airport, Biden's margin was somewhat underwhelming.

[Alcibiades]

I was really surprised by Biden's underperformance in the Mississippi Delta area of Eastern Arkansas. Lee County AR swung a whole 12% to Trump.

I think there are three different factors at play here which combined to create this pretty big swing:
1. Biden doing worse than Hillary among Arkansas whites, due to lingering home state affection for the Clintons.
2. Trump improving among African Americans.
3. A slight reduction in the black percentage of the county’s population.

[W]

Miami-Dade and literally all of South Texas are the obvious answers here. I was a doomer on Biden's Hispanic support but SHEESH!

[MRS. MEE SUM CHU]

Miami-Dade and literally all of South Texas are the obvious answers here. I was a doomer on Biden's Hispanic support but SHEESH!

It was unusually hot in Miami last year; I wonder if that had any impact on people’s lockdown attitudes or the election results.

https://weather.com/news/weather/news/2020-04-14-miami-april-record-warm-low-80-degrees-hottest-year-to-date

https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1250382143479369729?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/06/29/miami-hottest-week/

[texas_progressive]

I was really surprised by Biden's underperformance in the Mississippi Delta area of Eastern Arkansas. Lee County AR swung a whole 12% to Trump.

I think there are three different factors at play here which combined to create this pretty big swing:
1. Biden doing worse than Hillary among Arkansas whites, due to lingering home state affection for the Clintons.
2. Trump improving among African Americans.
3. A slight reduction in the black percentage of the county’s population.

Many of the places that Biden did well in minority communities are experiencing big population declines and an increase in the White population.

[texas_progressive]

I think there was already a thread about this.

Nonetheless, these are the top 5 most amazing:

1. Miami-Dade, FL
2. Zapata, TX
3. Arapahoe, CO
4. Hennepin, MN
5. Henry, GA


One amazing thing to note, Hennepin county voted to the left of Wayne county, MI? I don't think this has happened in over a hundred years.

I agree, that is noteworthy.

Wayne County, MI outside Detroit has many areas, such as Downriver, that have their own political subculture, as does Macomb County. Working-class Garden City, in which only about 7-8% of adults 25+ had college degrees as of 1990, voted Trump. Downscale Taylor ("Taylortucky") voted Biden, but barely, and even in racially mixed Romulus, home of Detroit's Metro Airport, Biden's margin was somewhat underwhelming.

Detroit is getting whiter and Biden really didn't do all that bad in the city of Detroit. He got 94% vs. 95% for Clinton. You also have to remember the Flint Water Crisis may have caused some people to vote for Clinton, that would have otherwise voted for Trump.