Why the Doomers were not "almost right", (a thread to say my piece on this)

[Former President tack50]

My final prediction was more accurate than 90% of this forum and many of my calls that few would make.

That literally isn't true. Most people were 290ers-351ers. Those were all more reasonable and frankly more accurate predictions than expecting Trump to win the election outright. Only the blue IA/OH/TX predictions were similarly off the mark.

I was literally one state off and had NC/GA closer than FL.

Also, 290 is a lot closer to 306 than 351.

I was under the impression that you were expecting a Trump win. Perhaps you aren't the archetype of a doomer that BRTD refers to--the people who thought PA and MI would go to Trump, for example.

Even so, given the actual results predicting PA and MI to go to Trump would not be a doomer prediction. A real doomer prediction would be sonething stupid like idk; predicting New Mexico or Virginia would go to Trump

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

However the Doomers were not merely people who were pessimistic or believed the polls were off again (I'll point out many optimists believed this was a possibility but also believed, correctly, that the polling error would have to be more massive than 2016 for Trump to win), but insisted Trump's victory was inevitable. If you insist Trump has a 100% chance of victory even if you believe that might be a narrow one, and that doesn't occur, you weren't "almost right".

The problem here is that literally nobody I know of was saying this. Maybe one or two people on the 2020 Election board, but aside from them and a few other extremely online people, almost nobody would have said that Trump was guaranteed a second term. And if you really wrote all this as a rebuttal to that small sliver of predictions, then I'd just say this wasn't worth your time.

I think he's specifically referring to the likes of Beet, Forumlurker, Horus, MillienialModerate - so yes, that small sliver of predictions.

I never insisted Trump's victory was inevitable and my final prediction was only one state off.

And the bloomers, like Monstro etc. were just as unbearable.

Does anyone Really think Biden has a realistic shot at the presidency RN?

He never had much of a chance, but after today he's basically done.

As I have told you numerous times, my prediction re kanye was under the assumption he would run a serious campaign. After it became clear a few weeks later that he would not be, I rescinded said prediction and from August onward was expecting a narrow race with Biden having a decent shot.

My final prediction was more accurate than 90% of this forum and many of my calls that few would make, like minorities swinging hard Trump, came to be.

"He never had much of a chance"

Also the notion that Kanye was even capable of running a "serious campaign", especially considering how late he announced and that was well past the filing deadlines of many states and far too late to have a chance at ballot access for many others, was laughably absurd even at that time.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

IT'S HAPPENING AGAIN: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=426732.0

See, this is what knee-jerk Doomerism is. It's not just being somewhat pessimistic.