latest Betfair odds

[Mr. Morden]

Betfair’s % probability of each of the following getting their party’s nomination:

Democratic nomination
Harris 34.5
Biden 31.8
Buttigieg 6.8
Ocasio-Cortez 5.8

Republican nomination
Haley 12.2
Trump 10.9
Pence 10.0
Cruz 7.5
Carlson 6.4
Noem 5.3
Ivanka Trump 4.5
Rubio 4.3
Cotton 3.6
Pompeo 3.4
Ryan 3.4
Crenshaw 2.6
Hawley 2.6
Romney 2.4
Kanye West 2.4

Haley’s also leading in $markets, the other active peer-to-peer betting site.  It’s more mixed in the markets with prices set by bookies, with many of them still having Trump leading.  Though even in most of those that have Trump leading, Haley’s in second place.

Anywhere, here is Betfair: https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.178163685 , but the odds are more digestible in the aggregator Oddschecker: https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2024/republican-candidate

[Mr. Morden]

Haley's stint at the top didn't last very long, as Trump is back in the #1 spot for the GOP nomination (albeit only with a ~15% chance of winning given the big field):

Democratic nomination
Harris 33.5
Biden 26.6
Buttigieg 5.8
Ocasio-Cortez 3.6
Yang 3.3
Warren 3.1

Republican nomination
Trump 14.9
Haley 11.4
Pence 8.1
Cruz 7.0
Rubio 4.2
Hawley 3.4
Pompeo 3.4
Ivanka Trump 3.4
Cotton 3.3
Ryan 3.1
Crenshaw 2.6
Romney 2.4
Kanye West 2.4
Carlson 2.1
Noem 1.9

[Mr. Morden]

No DeSantis?

Yeah, it looks like none of the betting sites have DeSantis contracts yet, though I'd imagine he'd be added at some point.

[Mr. Morden]

Trump's gained a bigger lead for the GOP nom., and they've also added contracts for DeSantis and Gaetz, who're tied for 5th place for the nomination:

Democratic nomination
Harris 32.9
Biden 24.7
Buttigieg 5.8
Warren 5.3
Ocasio-Cortez 3.7
Yang 3.1

Republican nomination
Trump 19.3
Haley 11.9
Pence 8.4
Cruz 7.0
DeSantis 5.0
Gaetz 5.0
Rubio 3.7
Hawley 3.4
Ivanka Trump 3.4
Cotton 3.3
Pompeo 3.1
Ryan 3.1
Crenshaw 2.5
Romney 2.4
Kanye West 2.4
Carlson 2.1
Noem 1.9

(I'm not going to be updating twice within the same week very often for quite some time, but since there was the question about DeSantis earlier, I thought I'd update because of that.)

[Mr. Morden]

Biden creeping up on Harris in the Dem. market....

Democratic nomination
Harris 36.1
Biden 34.5
Warren 7.5
Ocasio-Cortez 6.2
Buttigieg 3.7
Yang 2.6

Republican nomination
Trump 17.4
Haley 12.8
DeSantis 8.8
Pence 6.5
Pompeo 5.0
Carlson 4.5
Cruz 4.3
Hawley 3.4
Romney 3.4
Rubio 3.4
Ivanka Trump 3.4
Crenshaw 2.6
Noem 2.6
Paul 2.2
Cotton 2.1
Jordan 1.8
Ryan 1.8
Kanye West 1.5

[Mr. Morden]

Pre-straw poll (and pre-Trump speech) #s:

Democratic nomination
Harris 36.1
Biden 31.8
Warren 7.5
Buttigieg 5.4
Ocasio-Cortez 4.8
Yang 2.6

Republican nomination
Trump 26.9
Haley 13.1
DeSantis 8.8
Pence 5.8
Noem 4.8
Cruz 4.3
Rubio 4.0
Carlson 3.4
Pompeo 3.4
Hawley 3.3
Ivanka Trump 3.2
Romney 2.6
Rick Scott 2.5
Cotton 2.1
Crenshaw 2.1
Paul 1.8
Ryan 1.8
Kanye West 1.5

[Mr. Morden]

The market remains unconvinced that Biden will actually run again:

Democratic nomination
Harris 36.7
Biden 31.8
Warren 6.5
Buttigieg 4.3
Ocasio-Cortez 4.3
Bloomberg 3.1

Republican nomination
Trump 21.7
Haley 12.8
DeSantis 11.6
Pompeo 6.4
Pence 6.2
Noem 5.3
Ivanka Trump 4.8
Cruz 4.3
Hawley 4.3
Carlson 4.2
Rubio 3.4
Romney 2.1
Rick Scott 2.1
Cotton 1.9
Crenshaw 1.9
Jim Jordan 1.6
Ryan 1.6
Paul 1.3

[Mr. Morden]

Update...

Democratic nomination
Harris 35.9
Biden 32.2
Warren 6.4
Buttigieg 5.3
Ocasio-Cortez 3.4
Bloomberg 3.1
Gabbard 2.9
Yang 2.5

Republican nomination
Trump 21.7
DeSantis 14.9
Haley 12.4
Pence 6.4
Noem 5.5
Cruz 5.3
Pompeo 4.8
Hawley 3.8
Carlson 3.6
Rubio 3.4
Ivanka Trump 3.3
Cotton 2.6
Romney 2.1
Rick Scott 2.1
Crenshaw 1.9
Jim Jordan 1.8

[Mr. Morden]

Update...

Democratic nomination
Harris 35.8
Biden 30.5
Warren 6.8
Buttigieg 6.5
Duckworth 3.3
Ocasio-Cortez 3.1

Republican nomination
Trump 18.9
DeSantis 15.8
Haley 12.2
Pence 7.5
Noem 5.5
Cruz 5.3
Pompeo 4.8
Ivanka Trump 4.2
Hawley 3.6
Carlson 2.9
Rubio 2.9
Cotton 2.6
Rick Scott 2.1
Crenshaw 1.9
Jim Jordan 1.8
Romney 1.8
Ryan 1.8

[Mr. Morden]

Update...

Democratic nomination
Harris 35.6
Biden 31.4
Buttigieg 6.5
Warren 3.4
Ocasio-Cortez 3.3
Gabbard 3.1
Bloomberg 2.9

Republican nomination
Trump 21.7
DeSantis 14.9
Haley 11.9
Pence 5.7
Cruz 4.8
Pompeo 4.5
Carlson 4.2
Noem 4.0
Hawley 3.1
Ivanka Trump 2.8
Tim Scott 2.6
Cotton 2.5
Rubio 2.3
Crenshaw 1.9
Rick Scott 1.9
Jim Jordan 1.8
Ryan 1.8

[Mr. Morden]

Anyone offering Lindell yet?

I don't see him listed on any of the sites linked from Oddschecker.

Anyway, update:

Democratic nomination
Harris 35.6
Biden 31.4
Buttigieg 6.5
Warren 6.4
Ocasio-Cortez 3.3
Bloomberg 2.6

Republican nomination
Trump 24.1
DeSantis 14.9
Haley 11.9
Pence 6.5
Cruz 5.0
Pompeo 3.8
Carlson 3.7
Noem 3.4
Hawley 3.1
Cotton 2.5
Tim Scott 2.4
Ivanka Trump 2.1
Crenshaw 1.9
Rick Scott 1.9
Jim Jordan 1.8
Rubio 1.8
Ryan 1.3

[Mr. Morden]

Update...

Democratic nomination
Harris 32.9
Biden 30.0
Buttigieg 6.5
Ocasio-Cortez 4.2
Booker 3.1

Republican nomination
Trump 28.0
DeSantis 15.8
Haley 11.6
Pence 6.0
Cruz 4.2
Carlson 3.7
Pompeo 3.7
Hawley 3.1
Noem 2.9
Cotton 2.1
Jim Jordan 2.1
Tim Scott 2.1
Ivanka Trump 2.1
Crenshaw 1.9
Rubio 1.9
Kanye West 1.9

[Mr. Morden]

Biden takes the lead in the Dem. market, and Trump hits 30 in the GOP market:

Democratic nomination
Biden 32.9
Harris 31.0
Buttigieg 6.5
Ocasio-Cortez 3.1
Booker 2.9

Republican nomination
Trump 30.0
DeSantis 16.8
Haley 12.2
Pence 6.0
Cruz 4.3
Pompeo 3.8
Noem 3.4
Hawley 3.3
Rubio 3.1
Carlson 2.8
Cotton 2.3
Tim Scott 2.3

Ironically, Harris losing her lead in the 2024 Dem. market comes about 4 years after she briefly gained the lead in the 2020 Dem. market.  Here's what Betfair had 4 years ago or so:

Dem. nomination
Harris 20.0
Warren 19.2
Biden 12.5
Sanders 10.6
M. Obama 8.3
Clinton 8.0

GOP nomination
Trump 49.5
Pence 24.4

[Mr. Morden]

Update...

Democratic nomination
Biden 33.5
Harris 31.0
Buttigieg 5.5
Warren 4.5
Duckworth 3.4
Booker 3.1
Bloomberg 2.6
Ocasio-Cortez 2.6
M. Obama 2.4

Republican nomination
Trump 31.0
DeSantis 16.8
Haley 12.2
Pence 6.0
Cruz 4.3
Carlson 3.8
Pompeo 3.7
Noem 3.4
Hawley 3.3
Cotton 2.3
Rubio 2.2
Tim Scott 2.2

[Mr. Morden]

I guess Biden seeming to be ignorant of the fact that we have troops in Syria has convinced more people that that his mental acuity is slipping, and he’s not going to run again.  

In any case, Biden has slipped into a tie with Harris for the lead for the Dem. nomination:

Democratic nomination
Biden 31.0
Harris 31.0
Buttigieg 6.4
Warren 4.8
Duckworth 3.4
Ocasio-Cortez 3.3
Bloomberg 2.6
M. Obama 2.4

Republican nomination
Trump 30.0
DeSantis 16.8
Haley 11.4
Pence 6.0
Carlson 4.2
Cruz 4.0
Pompeo 3.6
Noem 3.4
Hawley 3.3
Cotton 2.6
Tim Scott 2.4
Rubio 2.2
I. Trump 2.1
Romney 1.5
Rick Scott 1.4
Crenshaw 1.3

[Mr. Morden]

Biden's again alone in the top spot for the Dem. nomination, though still not *that* far ahead of Harris:

Democratic nomination
Biden 32.4
Harris 30.5
Buttigieg 5.8
Warren 4.2
Duckworth 3.4
Ocasio-Cortez 3.3
M. Obama 2.6

Republican nomination
Trump 31.8
DeSantis 17.4
Haley 11.6
Pence 7.2
Cruz 4.2
Carlson 4.0
Pompeo 3.8
Noem 3.4
Hawley 3.3
Cotton 3.1
Tim Scott 2.4
Rubio 2.2
I. Trump 1.9
Sasse 1.8
Romney 1.5

[Mr. Morden]

Biden and Harris are once again tied for the lead for the Dem. nomination.  And Trump has been making notable gains in the GOP market in the last couple of weeks:

Democratic nomination
Biden 31.8
Harris 31.8
Buttigieg 5.8
Duckworth 3.4
Warren 3.3
Newsom 2.8
M. Obama 2.5
Ocasio-Cortez 2.5
Booker 2.4

Republican nomination
Trump 37.5
DeSantis 15.4
Haley 11.4
Pence 9.5
Cruz 4.0
Carlson 3.8
Pompeo 3.7
Hawley 3.1
Noem 3.1
Cotton 2.9
Rubio 2.1
I. Trump 2.1

[Mr. Morden]

Biden again takes a (very slim) lead over Harris for the Dem. nomination, while Trump surges all the way to 45 to win the GOP nomination….

Democratic nomination
Biden 31.8
Harris 31.0
Buttigieg 5.4
Duckworth 3.4
Ocasio-Cortez 3.1
Warren 2.9
Newsom 2.8
Booker 2.4
M. Obama 2.4

Republican nomination
Trump 45.0
DeSantis 12.4
Haley 10.5
Pence 7.8
Carlson 3.4
Pompeo 3.4
Cruz 3.1
Hawley 2.6
Cotton 2.5
Noem 2.2
T. Scott 2.2
I. Trump 1.9

Since the market rates Trump as notably more likely to win his party’s nomination than Biden does to win his, does that mean it now thinks Trump is the most likely individual to win in 2024?  No, it still thinks Biden would be quite likely to win the GE, conditional on him being the nominee:

Winning Individual
Biden 21.7
Trump 19.6
Harris 13.8
DeSantis 7.8
Haley 5.0
Pence 4.8
Buttigieg 2.8
Warren 2.1
Pompeo 1.8
Carlson 1.5
L. Cheney 1.5
Noem 1.5

And here’s the market for winning individual in 2020, roughly 4 years ago at this point:

Trump 28.0
Harris 11.4
Pence 8.4
Warren 7.5
M. Obama 5.3
Sanders 5.0
Zuckerberg 4.8
Biden 3.8
The Rock 3.8
Oprah Winfrey 3.4
Booker 2.6
Gillibrand 2.5
Clinton 2.4
Castro 2.1
Franken 2.1
P. Ryan 2.1

[Mr. Morden]

Trump now narrowly ahead of Biden in the winning individual market (both here and on most of the other betting sites):

Democratic nomination
Biden 31.4
Harris 31.0
Buttigieg 5.0
Duckworth 3.4
Ocasio-Cortez 3.1
Newsom 2.8
M. Obama 2.4
Warren 2.4

Republican nomination
Trump 44.8
DeSantis 13.8
Haley 11.4
Pence 6.8
Cruz 3.7
Carlson 3.4
Pompeo 3.4
Cotton 2.9

Winning Individual
Trump 22.6
Biden 20.1
Harris 13.1
DeSantis 7.5
Haley 4.8
Pence 3.6
Buttigieg 3.3
Warren 2.1
Pompeo 1.9
Dwayne Johnson 1.8

[Mr. Morden]

Update....

Democratic nomination
Biden 31.8
Harris 29.2
Buttigieg 6.8
Warren 4.2
Duckworth 3.4
Klobuchar 2.9
Ocasio-Cortez 2.6
Newsom 2.1
Bloomberg 1.9
Booker 1.9

Republican nomination
Trump 43.3
DeSantis 15.8
Haley 11.1
Pence 7.2
Carlson 4.0
Pompeo 3.8
Cruz 3.4
Tim Scott 2.8
Cotton 2.6
Noem 2.6

Winning Individual
Trump 23.2
Biden 16.3
Harris 12.2
DeSantis 8.8
Haley 4.5
Pence 3.4
Buttigieg 3.3
Dwayne Johnson 2.3
Warren 2.2
Carlson 2.1
Pompeo 2.1

[Mr. Morden]

New low for Harris, and new highs for both Buttigieg and DeSantis:

Democratic nomination
Biden 32.9
Harris 25.4
Buttigieg 9.1
Warren 6.2
Duckworth 3.4
Booker 2.4
Ocasio-Cortez 2.4
S. Rice 2.3
Bloomberg 1.9
Newsom 1.8
M. Obama 1.8

Republican nomination
Trump 43.3
DeSantis 17.7
Haley 10.7
Pence 7.8
Carlson 3.8
Pompeo 3.8
Cruz 2.9
Noem 2.9
Tim Scott 2.8
Cotton 2.6

[Mr. Morden]

Another new low for Harris, as Michelle Obama and Hillary Clinton make gains.  Meanwhile, DeSantis hits another new high, though is still way behind Trump.  And DeSantis has passed Harris for 3rd place in winning individual:

Democratic nomination
Biden 31.0
Harris 23.1
Buttigieg 7.8
M. Obama 5.0
Clinton 4.5
Duckworth 3.4
Warren 3.4
S. Rice 2.3
Newsom 1.9
Ocasio-Cortez 1.8
Klobuchar 1.6
Ossoff 1.6

Republican nomination
Trump 41.8
DeSantis 18.6
Haley 10.0
Pence 7.0
Pompeo 3.8
Carlson 3.7
Cruz 2.6
Noem 2.6
Cotton 2.4
Hawley 2.1

Winning Individual
Trump 23.1
Biden 16.3
DeSantis 11.6
Harris 9.5
Buttigieg 4.2
Haley 4.2
Pence 3.7
M. Obama 3.1
Clinton 2.2
Warren 2.2

[Mr. Morden]

DeSantis is now in the 20s:

Democratic nomination
Biden 29.3
Harris 21.3
Buttigieg 7.8
Clinton 4.3
M. Obama 4.0
Warren 3.6
Duckworth 3.4
S. Rice 2.3
Newsom 1.9
Klobuchar 1.6
Ossoff 1.6
Ocasio-Cortez 1.5

Republican nomination
Trump 38.7
DeSantis 24.1
Haley 9.1
Pence 7.8
Pompeo 3.8
Carlson 2.9
Cruz 2.6
Noem 2.6
Cotton 2.4
R. Scott 1.8
I. Trump 1.6

Here's what the 2020 Dem. nomination market looked like about 4 years ago at this time:

Harris 16.1
Sanders 15.4
Warren 13.2
Biden 11.6
Winfrey 7.5
Gillibrand 6.2
Booker 5.9
M. Obama 5.9
Kaine 4.3
Klobuchar 4.0
Zuckerberg 4.0

[Mr. Morden]

Democratic nomination
Biden 28.4
Harris 22.2
Buttigieg 7.8
Clinton 3.8
M. Obama 3.8
Warren 3.7
Duckworth 3.4
S. Rice 2.3
Newsom 1.9
Klobuchar 1.6
Ossoff 1.6
Ocasio-Cortez 1.5

Republican nomination
Trump 42.2
DeSantis 21.7
Haley 9.5
Pence 8.8
Pompeo 3.8
Noem 2.6
Carlson 2.5
Cotton 2.4
Cruz 2.4
Sasse 1.8
R. Scott 1.8

Four years ago today:

Democratic nomination
Sanders 16.7
Harris 15.4
Biden 15.2
Warren 13.9
Gillibrand 7.8
Booker 5.7
M. Obama 5.7
Winfrey 4.8
Kaine 4.3
Klobuchar 4.0
Zuckerberg 4.0

Republican nomination
Trump 69.2
Pence 16.1
Kasich 6.6

[Mr. Morden]

Democratic nomination
Biden 28.4
Harris 22.2
Buttigieg 7.8
Clinton 3.8
M. Obama 3.8
Warren 3.7
Duckworth 3.4
S. Rice 2.3
Newsom 1.9
Klobuchar 1.6
Ossoff 1.6
Ocasio-Cortez 1.5

Republican nomination
Trump 42.2
DeSantis 21.7
Haley 9.5
Pence 8.8
Pompeo 3.8
Noem 2.6
Carlson 2.5
Cotton 2.4
Cruz 2.4
Sasse 1.8
R. Scott 1.8

Four years ago today:

Democratic nomination
Sanders 16.7
Harris 15.4
Biden 15.2
Warren 13.9
Gillibrand 7.8
Booker 5.7
M. Obama 5.7
Winfrey 4.8
Kaine 4.3
Klobuchar 4.0
Zuckerberg 4.0

Republican nomination
Trump 69.2
Pence 16.1
Kasich 6.6

Why did DeSantis slip?

Presumably because Trump rose.