latest Betfair odds

[GeorgiaModerate]

It will be interesting to see if today's J6 committee hearing moves the needle on the R side.

[Medal506]

Nikki Haley is still polling at 2% and everyone knows who she is. She’s not getting the nomination.

[Mr. Morden]

Buttigieg re-takes 3rd place in the Dem. primary market, while Trump has a bit of a rebound on the GOP side.

Democratic nomination
Biden 35.9
Harris 16.3
Buttigieg 6.5
Warren 6.2
Newsom 5.7
M. Obama 4.5
Adams 4.2
Clinton 3.4
Duckworth 3.4
Bloomberg 2.4

Republican nomination
Trump 44.0
DeSantis 32.9
Pence 8.1
Haley 5.4
Pompeo 3.8
Noem 2.6
Cotton 2.3

Four years ago at this point:

Democratic nomination
Harris 15.2
Sanders 11.9
Biden 11.6
Warren 10.5
Gillibrand 6.8
Gabbard 6.2
M. Obama 5.3
Booker 4.8
Winfrey 4.5

Republican nomination
Trump 80.0
Pence 11.9
Kasich 4.5

Eight years ago at this point:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=186821.msg4211736#msg4211736

Bush 19.0
Rubio 15.4
Paul 11.6
Christie 11.1
Walker 6.5
Cruz 6.2
Ryan 5.0
Huckabee 4.3

Twelve years ago at this point:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg2552521#msg2552521

Romney 27.8
Palin 17.5
Thune 13.6
Gingrich 11.1
Pawlenty 7.3
Daniels 6.5
Huckabee 5.7
Paul 4.9

[President Johnson]

Wow, what caused Kamala to collapse?

[Mr. Morden]

Trump now over 50, as DeSantis and Pence drop.  On the Dem. side, Newsom surges into 3rd place (and double digits), and Biden has dropped.

Democratic nomination
Biden 30.5
Harris 17.4
Newsom 10.7
Buttigieg 6.2
M. Obama 5.0
Warren 5.0
Clinton 4.0
Adams 3.7
Duckworth 3.4
Rice 2.2

Republican nomination
Trump 52.4
DeSantis 28.4
Pence 5.8
Haley 3.8
Pompeo 3.8
Noem 2.6
Cotton 2.4

[Tekken_Guy]

Trump now over 50, as DeSantis and Pence drop.  On the Dem. side, Newsom surges into 3rd place (and double digits), and Biden has dropped.

Democratic nomination
Biden 30.5
Harris 17.4
Newsom 10.7
Buttigieg 6.2
M. Obama 5.0
Warren 5.0
Clinton 4.0
Adams 3.7
Duckworth 3.4
Rice 2.2

Republican nomination
Trump 52.4
DeSantis 28.4
Pence 5.8
Haley 3.8
Pompeo 3.8
Noem 2.6
Cotton 2.4

What caused Trump to go up so much?

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Being a successful trader on this (and most political markets) is really about being good at trading news flows. For example, DeSantis making some kind of gaffe would probably be a good time to 'buy' him as his price would have probably dropped but would go up again once the gaffe has filtered out of the news cycle.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump now over 50, as DeSantis and Pence drop.  On the Dem. side, Newsom surges into 3rd place (and double digits), and Biden has dropped.

Democratic nomination
Biden 30.5
Harris 17.4
Newsom 10.7
Buttigieg 6.2
M. Obama 5.0
Warren 5.0
Clinton 4.0
Adams 3.7
Duckworth 3.4
Rice 2.2

Republican nomination
Trump 52.4
DeSantis 28.4
Pence 5.8
Haley 3.8
Pompeo 3.8
Noem 2.6
Cotton 2.4

What caused Trump to go up so much?

I'm guessing that it's because Trump has essentially confirmed he's running, without officially announcing it yet.  If he runs, he's the clear frontrunner for the nomination.  His lower odds earlier reflected more uncertainty about whether he'd run.

[Mr. Morden]

Biden drops even further, down to 26.9, as Newsom surges up to 15.8.  On the GOP side, Trump drops below 50 again as DeSantis rises above 30 again:

Democratic nomination
Biden 26.9
Harris 18.3
Newsom 15.8
Buttigieg 8.1
M. Obama 6.5
Clinton 4.0
Warren 4.0
Duckworth 3.4
Ocasio-Cortez 2.3
Rice 2.2

Republican nomination
Trump 49.6
DeSantis 32.4
Pence 6.0
Pompeo 3.8
Haley 3.4
Noem 2.6

[Schiff for Senate]

Biden drops even further, down to 26.9, as Newsom surges up to 15.8.  On the GOP side, Trump drops below 50 again as DeSantis rises above 30 again:

Democratic nomination
Biden 26.9
Harris 18.3
Newsom 15.8
Buttigieg 8.1
M. Obama 6.5
Clinton 4.0
Warren 4.0
Duckworth 3.4
Ocasio-Cortez 2.3
Rice 2.2

LOL at AOC, Michelle Obama and Clinton even being included. ESPECIALLY Michelle Obama. I really don't get why so many people think she'll just run and win. People thought that about Hilly Clinton back in '04 and '08 too (and remember she legitimately held political office in her own right in that case, serving as a US Senator from NY)...do Democrats just like the idea of Democratic former first ladies as president or something? Because Clinton is DONE and I don't think there's any reason to think Michelle Obama will run.

Also, who is Rice? Please tell me it's not Condoleezza Rice. That will be beyond pathetic.

[Mr. Morden]

Also, who is Rice?

Susan Rice.

[Schiff for Senate]

Also, who is Rice?

Susan Rice.

Thought that might be the case, but honestly for some reason I couldn't remember her (I tried to and could only think of Karen Bass) and thought of Condi Rice instead. A 2.2% chance for Rice is still much less ludicrous than a 6.5% chance for Michelle Obama in any case.

[NewYorkExpress]

Biden drops even further, down to 26.9, as Newsom surges up to 15.8.  On the GOP side, Trump drops below 50 again as DeSantis rises above 30 again:

Democratic nomination
Biden 26.9
Harris 18.3
Newsom 15.8
Buttigieg 8.1
M. Obama 6.5
Clinton 4.0
Warren 4.0
Duckworth 3.4
Ocasio-Cortez 2.3
Rice 2.2

LOL at AOC, Michelle Obama and Clinton even being included. ESPECIALLY Michelle Obama. I really don't get why so many people think she'll just run and win. People thought that about Hilly Clinton back in '04 and '08 too (and remember she legitimately held political office in her own right in that case, serving as a US Senator from NY)...do Democrats just like the idea of Democratic former first ladies as president or something? Because Clinton is DONE and I don't think there's any reason to think Michelle Obama will run.

Also, who is Rice? Please tell me it's not Condoleezza Rice. That will be beyond pathetic.

At least Hillary Clinton's semi-plausible in that she still has ambition for being President and is exactly the kind of person who would knife Biden in the back.

Michelle Obama has expressed no interest in running for office, and I'm pretty sure she hated being First Lady, too, so she's not running.

[Mr. Morden]

Some big movement on the GOP side, with DeSantis now just narrowly behind Trump:

Republican nomination
Trump 39.4
DeSantis 37.1
Pence 5.8
Pompeo 3.8
Haley 3.7
Noem 2.6
Cotton 2.3
T. Scott 1.6
Cruz 1.3
I. Trump 1.1
Carlson 1.0

[Mr. Morden]

Trump's regained much of the ground he lost on the day the FBI search warrant was revealed, and now has a decent lead over DeSantis again:

Democratic nomination
Biden 28.8
Harris 17.7
Newsom 12.8
Buttigieg 8.4
M. Obama 4.8
Clinton 3.8
Warren 3.8
Duckworth 3.4
Ocasio-Cortez 2.2
Rice 2.2

Republican nomination
Trump 45.5
DeSantis 31.8
Pence 6.4
Haley 3.8
Pompeo 3.8
Noem 2.6
Cotton 2.3
Cheney 1.6
T. Scott 1.6

Four years ago today:

Democratic nomination
Harris 15.4
Warren 15.4
Sanders 12.2
Biden 11.9
Patrick 8.1
Newsom 7.5
Gabbard 6.6
Gillibrand 6.2
Booker 5.9
M. Obama 5.3

Republican nomination
Trump 73.3
Pence 11.6
Kasich 6.6
Haley 4.2
Romney 3.4

Republican #s eight years ago:

Rubio 15.8
Bush 11.9
Paul 11.9
Christie 10.5
Cruz 6.4
Romney 6.4
Walker 5.4
Ryan 4.8
Huckabee 3.3
Jindal 3.1
Perry 2.9

Twelve years ago on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg2628582#msg2628582

Romney 27.9
Palin 18.8
Thune 18.0
Pawlenty 12.5
Gingrich 10.4
Barbour 7.9
Huckabee 6.1
Daniels 5.7
Paul 5.5

Sixteen years ago on Tradesports:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=40420.msg966748#msg966748

Democrats
Clinton 40.5 (-1.9)
Warner 18.5 (-0.5)
Gore 15.0 (+0.2)
Edwards 9.0 (0)
Feingold 3.6 (+1.3)
Kerry 3.3 (0)
Obama 2.2 (+0.2)
Bayh 2.2 (+ ~0.4)
Others under 2.0

Republicans
McCain 38.0 (-0.4)
Giuliani 16.0 (+1.5)
Romney 13.2 (+2.8 )
Allen 13.0 (-3.5)
Rice 5.9 (+0.9)
Gingrich 3.2 (+0.5)
Huckabee 2.2 (-0.4)
Others under 2.0

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump or the Rs won't even win in 24 because it's a blue wall map and they keep polling the Prez race like Trump is going back into WH

[Mr. Morden]

Biden back above 30 for the Dem. nomination:

Democratic nomination
Biden 32.9
Harris 18.3
Newsom 11.6
Buttigieg 7.8
M. Obama 5.1
Warren 3.8
Clinton 3.4
Duckworth 3.4
Rice 2.2
Ocasio-Cortez 2.0

Republican nomination
Trump 44.8
DeSantis 31.8
Pence 6.4
Haley 4.3
Pompeo 3.8
Noem 2.6
Cotton 2.3
T. Scott 1.4

Four years ago at this time:

Democratic nomination
Harris 16.7
Warren 14.7
Sanders 12.8
Biden 11.1
Patrick 8.1
Newsom 7.5
Gabbard 6.6
Gillibrand 6.2
Avenatti 6.0
Booker 5.9

Republican nomination
Trump 69.2
Pence 11.9
Kasich 6.4
Haley 3.7
Ryan 3.3
Romney 3.1

Eight years ago at this time:

Rubio 16.8
Bush 14.5
Paul 11.6
Christie 10.5
Romney 9.1
Cruz 6.0
Walker 5.3
Perry 4.8
Ryan 4.5

[LAKISYLVANIA]

the fact that trump has a higher chance to win the nomination acc to these odds than the incumbent is just lol.

[Mr. Morden]

Update...

Democratic nomination
Biden 32.9
Harris 18.6
Newsom 13.4
Buttigieg 7.2
M. Obama 4.5
Warren 3.6
Duckworth 3.4
Clinton 3.2
Rice 2.2
Ocasio-Cortez 1.7

Republican nomination
Trump 44.0
DeSantis 30.0
Pence 6.0
Haley 4.8
Pompeo 3.8
Noem 2.6
Cotton 2.3
R. Scott 1.7
T. Scott 1.4
Carlson 1.3

Four years ago at about this time:

Democratic nomination:
Harris 18.2
Warren 16.7
Sanders 11.6
Biden 11.1
Booker 6.6
Gillibrand 5.7
Gabbard 5.3
Winfrey 5.3
Patrick 5.0
Avenatti 4.0
Garcetti 4.0
Zuckerberg 3.7
Clinton 3.6
Cuomo 3.4

Republican nomination:
Trump 66.7
Pence 10.9
Kasich 6.0
Ryan 4.3
Haley 3.8
Romney 3.4
Rubio 2.6
Cruz 2.1

Eight years ago at about this time:

Rubio 16.8
Bush 12.8
Paul 12.2
Christie 10.5
Perry 10.5
Romney 8.4
Cruz 5.8
Walker 5.0
Ryan 4.5
Huckabee 3.3

Twelve years ago at about this time:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg2659953#msg2659953

Romney 32.4
Palin 17.6
Thune 17.6
Pawlenty 12.8
Gingrich 9.5
Barbour 7.0
Daniels 7.0
Paul 6.2
Huckabee 6.1
J. Bush 5.9
Pence 5.0

[NewYorkExpress]

A lot of people betting on Hillary Clinton or Michelle Obama are going to lose a ton of money.

[Skill and Chance]

Kinda crazy they assumed a 1/3 chance of Trump being successfully primaried or removed from office back in 2018, but also feels like they are overestimating him a bit now.  Also, even excluding Trump, the overrepresentation of retreads on both sides is something else.     

[Sir Mohamed]

A lot of people betting on Hillary Clinton or Michelle Obama are going to lose a ton of money.

They're addicted to this just like pollsters, or try to make it happen.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Biden 31c is just free money.

I told you guys a year ago that Biden 31c was free money.

If you listened to me, then as of today you doubled your money.