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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #50 on: November 26, 2021, 04:28:35 PM »

New low for Harris, and new highs for both Buttigieg and DeSantis:

Democratic nomination
Biden 32.9
Harris 25.4
Buttigieg 9.1
Warren 6.2
Duckworth 3.4
Booker 2.4
Ocasio-Cortez 2.4
S. Rice 2.3
Bloomberg 1.9
Newsom 1.8
M. Obama 1.8

Republican nomination
Trump 43.3
DeSantis 17.7
Haley 10.7
Pence 7.8
Carlson 3.8
Pompeo 3.8
Cruz 2.9
Noem 2.9
Tim Scott 2.8
Cotton 2.6
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #51 on: November 26, 2021, 04:40:37 PM »

Biden is running
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #52 on: January 22, 2022, 05:21:26 PM »

Another new low for Harris, as Michelle Obama and Hillary Clinton make gains.  Meanwhile, DeSantis hits another new high, though is still way behind Trump.  And DeSantis has passed Harris for 3rd place in winning individual:

Democratic nomination
Biden 31.0
Harris 23.1
Buttigieg 7.8
M. Obama 5.0
Clinton 4.5
Duckworth 3.4
Warren 3.4
S. Rice 2.3
Newsom 1.9
Ocasio-Cortez 1.8
Klobuchar 1.6
Ossoff 1.6

Republican nomination
Trump 41.8
DeSantis 18.6
Haley 10.0
Pence 7.0
Pompeo 3.8
Carlson 3.7
Cruz 2.6
Noem 2.6
Cotton 2.4
Hawley 2.1

Winning Individual
Trump 23.1
Biden 16.3
DeSantis 11.6
Harris 9.5
Buttigieg 4.2
Haley 4.2
Pence 3.7
M. Obama 3.1
Clinton 2.2
Warren 2.2
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GeneralMacArthur
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« Reply #53 on: January 31, 2022, 02:33:00 PM »

Biden 31c is just free money.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #54 on: February 19, 2022, 04:50:55 PM »

DeSantis is now in the 20s:

Democratic nomination
Biden 29.3
Harris 21.3
Buttigieg 7.8
Clinton 4.3
M. Obama 4.0
Warren 3.6
Duckworth 3.4
S. Rice 2.3
Newsom 1.9
Klobuchar 1.6
Ossoff 1.6
Ocasio-Cortez 1.5

Republican nomination
Trump 38.7
DeSantis 24.1
Haley 9.1
Pence 7.8
Pompeo 3.8
Carlson 2.9
Cruz 2.6
Noem 2.6
Cotton 2.4
R. Scott 1.8
I. Trump 1.6

Here's what the 2020 Dem. nomination market looked like about 4 years ago at this time:

Harris 16.1
Sanders 15.4
Warren 13.2
Biden 11.6
Winfrey 7.5
Gillibrand 6.2
Booker 5.9
M. Obama 5.9
Kaine 4.3
Klobuchar 4.0
Zuckerberg 4.0
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #55 on: February 19, 2022, 05:35:25 PM »
« Edited: February 19, 2022, 05:43:46 PM by SOCIALIST MR BAKARI SELLERS »

The GCB is 42/34 let's all stop pretending it's not a 303 map for D's we have beaten Rs 65)60 since 2006 and 2020 80)75 M

Just put on replay the map from 202o there we have it 303/235
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #56 on: February 19, 2022, 05:44:12 PM »

Another new low for Harris, as Michelle Obama and Hillary Clinton make gains.  Meanwhile, DeSantis hits another new high, though is still way behind Trump.  And DeSantis has passed Harris for 3rd place in winning individual:

Democratic nomination
Biden 31.0
Harris 23.1
Buttigieg 7.8
M. Obama 5.0
Clinton 4.5
Duckworth 3.4
Warren 3.4
S. Rice 2.3
Newsom 1.9
Ocasio-Cortez 1.8
Klobuchar 1.6
Ossoff 1.6

Republican nomination
Trump 41.8
DeSantis 18.6
Haley 10.0
Pence 7.0
Pompeo 3.8
Carlson 3.7
Cruz 2.6
Noem 2.6
Cotton 2.4
Hawley 2.1

Winning Individual
Trump 23.1
Biden 16.3
DeSantis 11.6
Harris 9.5
Buttigieg 4.2
Haley 4.2
Pence 3.7
M. Obama 3.1
Clinton 2.2
Warren 2.2


Trump winning is laughable
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #57 on: March 12, 2022, 10:39:24 PM »

Democratic nomination
Biden 28.4
Harris 22.2
Buttigieg 7.8
Clinton 3.8
M. Obama 3.8
Warren 3.7
Duckworth 3.4
S. Rice 2.3
Newsom 1.9
Klobuchar 1.6
Ossoff 1.6
Ocasio-Cortez 1.5

Republican nomination
Trump 42.2
DeSantis 21.7
Haley 9.5
Pence 8.8
Pompeo 3.8
Noem 2.6
Carlson 2.5
Cotton 2.4
Cruz 2.4
Sasse 1.8
R. Scott 1.8

Four years ago today:

Democratic nomination
Sanders 16.7
Harris 15.4
Biden 15.2
Warren 13.9
Gillibrand 7.8
Booker 5.7
M. Obama 5.7
Winfrey 4.8
Kaine 4.3
Klobuchar 4.0
Zuckerberg 4.0

Republican nomination
Trump 69.2
Pence 16.1
Kasich 6.6
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #58 on: March 13, 2022, 12:49:27 AM »

Democratic nomination
Biden 28.4
Harris 22.2
Buttigieg 7.8
Clinton 3.8
M. Obama 3.8
Warren 3.7
Duckworth 3.4
S. Rice 2.3
Newsom 1.9
Klobuchar 1.6
Ossoff 1.6
Ocasio-Cortez 1.5

Republican nomination
Trump 42.2
DeSantis 21.7
Haley 9.5
Pence 8.8
Pompeo 3.8
Noem 2.6
Carlson 2.5
Cotton 2.4
Cruz 2.4
Sasse 1.8
R. Scott 1.8

Four years ago today:

Democratic nomination
Sanders 16.7
Harris 15.4
Biden 15.2
Warren 13.9
Gillibrand 7.8
Booker 5.7
M. Obama 5.7
Winfrey 4.8
Kaine 4.3
Klobuchar 4.0
Zuckerberg 4.0

Republican nomination
Trump 69.2
Pence 16.1
Kasich 6.6


Why did DeSantis slip?
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #59 on: March 13, 2022, 12:52:36 AM »

Democratic nomination
Biden 28.4
Harris 22.2
Buttigieg 7.8
Clinton 3.8
M. Obama 3.8
Warren 3.7
Duckworth 3.4
S. Rice 2.3
Newsom 1.9
Klobuchar 1.6
Ossoff 1.6
Ocasio-Cortez 1.5

Republican nomination
Trump 42.2
DeSantis 21.7
Haley 9.5
Pence 8.8
Pompeo 3.8
Noem 2.6
Carlson 2.5
Cotton 2.4
Cruz 2.4
Sasse 1.8
R. Scott 1.8

Four years ago today:

Democratic nomination
Sanders 16.7
Harris 15.4
Biden 15.2
Warren 13.9
Gillibrand 7.8
Booker 5.7
M. Obama 5.7
Winfrey 4.8
Kaine 4.3
Klobuchar 4.0
Zuckerberg 4.0

Republican nomination
Trump 69.2
Pence 16.1
Kasich 6.6


Why did DeSantis slip?

Presumably because Trump rose.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #60 on: March 13, 2022, 12:54:36 AM »

Democratic nomination
Biden 28.4
Harris 22.2
Buttigieg 7.8
Clinton 3.8
M. Obama 3.8
Warren 3.7
Duckworth 3.4
S. Rice 2.3
Newsom 1.9
Klobuchar 1.6
Ossoff 1.6
Ocasio-Cortez 1.5

Republican nomination
Trump 42.2
DeSantis 21.7
Haley 9.5
Pence 8.8
Pompeo 3.8
Noem 2.6
Carlson 2.5
Cotton 2.4
Cruz 2.4
Sasse 1.8
R. Scott 1.8

Four years ago today:

Democratic nomination
Sanders 16.7
Harris 15.4
Biden 15.2
Warren 13.9
Gillibrand 7.8
Booker 5.7
M. Obama 5.7
Winfrey 4.8
Kaine 4.3
Klobuchar 4.0
Zuckerberg 4.0

Republican nomination
Trump 69.2
Pence 16.1
Kasich 6.6


Why did DeSantis slip?

Presumably because Trump rose.


Why did Trump rise by 3.5 since the last update?
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #61 on: March 14, 2022, 02:46:04 PM »

Democratic nomination
Biden 28.4
Harris 22.2
Buttigieg 7.8
Clinton 3.8
M. Obama 3.8
Warren 3.7
Duckworth 3.4
S. Rice 2.3
Newsom 1.9
Klobuchar 1.6
Ossoff 1.6
Ocasio-Cortez 1.5

Republican nomination
Trump 42.2
DeSantis 21.7
Haley 9.5
Pence 8.8
Pompeo 3.8
Noem 2.6
Carlson 2.5
Cotton 2.4
Cruz 2.4
Sasse 1.8
R. Scott 1.8

Four years ago today:

Democratic nomination
Sanders 16.7
Harris 15.4
Biden 15.2
Warren 13.9
Gillibrand 7.8
Booker 5.7
M. Obama 5.7
Winfrey 4.8
Kaine 4.3
Klobuchar 4.0
Zuckerberg 4.0

Republican nomination
Trump 69.2
Pence 16.1
Kasich 6.6


Is there a reason why Trump is back at 42 after slipping to 39 in the last update?
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #62 on: March 14, 2022, 11:21:13 PM »

If I were to put a dollar on Betfair on Corey Stapleton to win the Republican nomination, and the general election, how much money would I make if he won both?
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LAKISYLVANIA
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« Reply #63 on: March 18, 2022, 11:53:08 AM »

What ridicilous odds, you can clearly see that betters or bookmakers have lost their ways.

Michelle Obama, Hillary Clinton, S.Rice. Keep dreaming. And no progressive candidate... . Just like four years ago, Biden's odd is very underrated.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #64 on: March 18, 2022, 11:56:01 AM »

Newsom wants to be Prez there is no way he beats Harris in a D primary

Hopefully, DeSANTIS loses to Crist
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #65 on: April 02, 2022, 06:43:36 PM »

Pence is back up to 3rd place for the GOP nomination:

Democratic nomination
Biden 29.3
Harris 22.6
Buttigieg 7.2
Warren 3.7
M. Obama 3.6
Clinton 3.4
Duckworth 3.4
S. Rice 2.3
Newsom 1.8
Klobuchar 1.6
Ossoff 1.6
Ocasio-Cortez 1.5

Republican nomination
Trump 41.5
DeSantis 22.2
Pence 9.5
Haley 9.1
Pompeo 3.8
Noem 2.6
Cotton 2.4
Cruz 2.4
Carlson 2.1
Sasse 1.8
R. Scott 1.8
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #66 on: April 02, 2022, 07:27:41 PM »

Pence is back up to 3rd place for the GOP nomination:

Democratic nomination
Biden 29.3
Harris 22.6
Buttigieg 7.2
Warren 3.7
M. Obama 3.6
Clinton 3.4
Duckworth 3.4
S. Rice 2.3
Newsom 1.8
Klobuchar 1.6
Ossoff 1.6
Ocasio-Cortez 1.5

Republican nomination
Trump 41.5
DeSantis 22.2
Pence 9.5
Haley 9.1
Pompeo 3.8
Noem 2.6
Cotton 2.4
Cruz 2.4
Carlson 2.1
Sasse 1.8
R. Scott 1.8


Why did Trump go to 42 down to 39 and back to 42?
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #67 on: April 03, 2022, 12:45:44 AM »

Any bookies out there listing Sarah Palin yet?
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #68 on: May 28, 2022, 02:47:55 PM »

Update:

Democratic nomination
Biden 30.5
Harris 19.3
Buttigieg 7.5
Warren 6.2
Adams 5.1
Clinton 3.6
M. Obama 3.6
Duckworth 3.4
Newsom 2.3
S. Rice 2.2

Republican nomination
Trump 47.6
DeSantis 20.8
Pence 10.9
Haley 7.8
Pompeo 3.8
Noem 2.6
Cruz 2.4
Cotton 2.3

Four years ago at about this time:

Democratic nomination:
Sanders 20.1
Biden 18.0
Harris 16.8
Warren 12.8
Gillibrand 9.5
Booker 7.0
Winfrey 6.4
Brown 5.3

Republican nomination:
Trump 69.2
Pence 14.7

Eight years ago at about this time:

Dems
Clinton 65.8
Biden 7.2
Warren 6.5
Cuomo 4.0

GOP
Bush 20.0
Rubio 16.8
Paul 11.4
Christie 10.0
Walker 6.8
Cruz 5.7
Ryan 4.8
Huckabee 4.5

Twelve years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg2510749#msg2510749

Quote
Romney 22.5
Palin 20.0
Thune 15.0
Gingrich 10.0
Pawlenty 6.5
Jeb Bush 4.1
Huckabee 3.8
Daniels 3.5
Paul 3.5
Pence 2.5
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #69 on: May 28, 2022, 03:48:00 PM »

Update:

Democratic nomination
Biden 30.5
Harris 19.3
Buttigieg 7.5
Warren 6.2
Adams 5.1
Clinton 3.6
M. Obama 3.6
Duckworth 3.4
Newsom 2.3
S. Rice 2.2

Republican nomination
Trump 47.6
DeSantis 20.8
Pence 10.9
Haley 7.8
Pompeo 3.8
Noem 2.6
Cruz 2.4
Cotton 2.3

Four years ago at about this time:

Democratic nomination:
Sanders 20.1
Biden 18.0
Harris 16.8
Warren 12.8
Gillibrand 9.5
Booker 7.0
Winfrey 6.4
Brown 5.3

Republican nomination:
Trump 69.2
Pence 14.7

Eight years ago at about this time:

Dems
Clinton 65.8
Biden 7.2
Warren 6.5
Cuomo 4.0

GOP
Bush 20.0
Rubio 16.8
Paul 11.4
Christie 10.0
Walker 6.8
Cruz 5.7
Ryan 4.8
Huckabee 4.5

Twelve years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg2510749#msg2510749

Quote
Romney 22.5
Palin 20.0
Thune 15.0
Gingrich 10.0
Pawlenty 6.5
Jeb Bush 4.1
Huckabee 3.8
Daniels 3.5
Paul 3.5
Pence 2.5


Trump surging?!  It feels like his standing has declined meaningfully in the past 6 weeks.   
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #70 on: May 28, 2022, 09:40:51 PM »

Update:

Democratic nomination
Biden 30.5
Harris 19.3
Buttigieg 7.5
Warren 6.2
Adams 5.1
Clinton 3.6
M. Obama 3.6
Duckworth 3.4
Newsom 2.3
S. Rice 2.2

Republican nomination
Trump 47.6
DeSantis 20.8
Pence 10.9
Haley 7.8
Pompeo 3.8
Noem 2.6
Cruz 2.4
Cotton 2.3

Four years ago at about this time:

Democratic nomination:
Sanders 20.1
Biden 18.0
Harris 16.8
Warren 12.8
Gillibrand 9.5
Booker 7.0
Winfrey 6.4
Brown 5.3

Republican nomination:
Trump 69.2
Pence 14.7

Eight years ago at about this time:

Dems
Clinton 65.8
Biden 7.2
Warren 6.5
Cuomo 4.0

GOP
Bush 20.0
Rubio 16.8
Paul 11.4
Christie 10.0
Walker 6.8
Cruz 5.7
Ryan 4.8
Huckabee 4.5

Twelve years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg2510749#msg2510749

Quote
Romney 22.5
Palin 20.0
Thune 15.0
Gingrich 10.0
Pawlenty 6.5
Jeb Bush 4.1
Huckabee 3.8
Daniels 3.5
Paul 3.5
Pence 2.5


Trump surging?!  It feels like his standing has declined meaningfully in the past 6 weeks.   

From what it looks like, it’s a case of “more likely he’ll run” rather than “less likely he’ll lose the primary assuming he runs”. Which might solely be a reaction to Biden’s approval rating.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #71 on: June 11, 2022, 05:35:35 PM »

Biden up as Trump drops a little from his recent high:

Democratic nomination
Biden 35.0
Harris 18.9
Buttigieg 7.8
Warren 6.4
Adams 4.0
Clinton 3.8
M. Obama 3.8
Duckworth 3.4
Newsom 2.3
S. Rice 2.2

Republican nomination
Trump 45.5
DeSantis 23.2
Pence 9.5
Haley 7.5
Pompeo 3.8
Noem 2.6
Cotton 2.3
Cruz 2.0
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #72 on: June 19, 2022, 09:12:17 PM »

DeSantis on the move...

Democratic nomination
Biden 34.5
Harris 17.4
Buttigieg 7.5
Warren 6.4
Adams 3.4
Duckworth 3.4
M. Obama 3.4
Clinton 2.9
Newsom 2.3
S. Rice 2.2

Republican nomination
Trump 44.0
DeSantis 28.0
Pence 9.5
Haley 6.5
Pompeo 3.8
Noem 2.6
Cotton 2.3
Cruz 2.0
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #73 on: June 25, 2022, 04:15:36 PM »

DeSantis surges to new highs.  On the Dem. side, Warren has passed Buttigieg for 3rd place, and Newsom has surged into the top 5.

Democratic nomination
Biden 33.9
Harris 17.4
Warren 7.2
Buttigieg 6.8
Newsom 5.3
Adams 5.0
M. Obama 3.8
Duckworth 3.4
Clinton 3.2
Bloomberg 2.9

Republican nomination
Trump 40.0
DeSantis 35.6
Pence 9.1
Haley 5.6
Pompeo 3.8
Noem 2.6
Cotton 2.3
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LabourJersey
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« Reply #74 on: June 28, 2022, 09:48:05 AM »

DeSantis surges to new highs.  On the Dem. side, Warren has passed Buttigieg for 3rd place, and Newsom has surged into the top 5.

Democratic nomination
Biden 33.9
Harris 17.4
Warren 7.2
Buttigieg 6.8
Newsom 5.3
Adams 5.0
M. Obama 3.8
Duckworth 3.4
Clinton 3.2
Bloomberg 2.9

Republican nomination
Trump 40.0
DeSantis 35.6
Pence 9.1
Haley 5.6
Pompeo 3.8
Noem 2.6
Cotton 2.3


It's really fascinating how low Biden is here (and Harris, for that matter).
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