latest Betfair odds

[BlueSwan]

I don't ever gamble. But if Trump announces I might just put EVERYTHING on him winning the nomination. I don't believe there has really ever been a bigger favourite for the nomination outside of sitting presidents. If Trump runs, he's the nominee.

[ultraviolet]

Biden+Harris is only 68 cents? It almost seems too easy…

[LabourJersey]

Update...

Democratic nomination
Harris 35.9
Biden 32.2
Warren 6.4
Buttigieg 5.3
Ocasio-Cortez 3.4
Bloomberg 3.1
Gabbard 2.9
Yang 2.5

Republican nomination
Trump 21.7
DeSantis 14.9
Haley 12.4
Pence 6.4
Noem 5.5
Cruz 5.3
Pompeo 4.8
Hawley 3.8
Carlson 3.6
Rubio 3.4
Ivanka Trump 3.3
Cotton 2.6
Romney 2.1
Rick Scott 2.1
Crenshaw 1.9
Jim Jordan 1.8

Why is Don Jr. not on here?

Like I don't expect him to actually win the nomination but I think that's a more likely scenario than Jim Jordan or Romney winning it.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Harris and she isn't even a candidate for Prez, she is Veep, Biden is our best bet Against Ron DeSantis

[Mr. Morden]

Update...

Democratic nomination
Harris 35.8
Biden 30.5
Warren 6.8
Buttigieg 6.5
Duckworth 3.3
Ocasio-Cortez 3.1

Republican nomination
Trump 18.9
DeSantis 15.8
Haley 12.2
Pence 7.5
Noem 5.5
Cruz 5.3
Pompeo 4.8
Ivanka Trump 4.2
Hawley 3.6
Carlson 2.9
Rubio 2.9
Cotton 2.6
Rick Scott 2.1
Crenshaw 1.9
Jim Jordan 1.8
Romney 1.8
Ryan 1.8

[Mr. Morden]

Update...

Democratic nomination
Harris 35.6
Biden 31.4
Buttigieg 6.5
Warren 3.4
Ocasio-Cortez 3.3
Gabbard 3.1
Bloomberg 2.9

Republican nomination
Trump 21.7
DeSantis 14.9
Haley 11.9
Pence 5.7
Cruz 4.8
Pompeo 4.5
Carlson 4.2
Noem 4.0
Hawley 3.1
Ivanka Trump 2.8
Tim Scott 2.6
Cotton 2.5
Rubio 2.3
Crenshaw 1.9
Rick Scott 1.9
Jim Jordan 1.8
Ryan 1.8

[President Johnson]

The incumbent president is extremely undervalued.

[Former Crackhead Mike Lindell]

Anyone offering Lindell yet?

[Xing]

I guess people are using the logic that three years is a long time, but I think the odds of Biden running again are much higher, and it would probably take a very severe health scare for him to rule out a second term.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is running unless the Rs take the H and impeached him over Hunter Biden and he gives it to Harris.  But, part of the reason why we didn't win wave insurance seats were the Hunter Biden probe

But, Biden is more popular now that he isn't a candidate and is now Prez, so R takeover of H isn't inevitable, his popularity stems from Stimulus checks

Alot of people still are receiving money for child tax credits

[Mr. Morden]

Anyone offering Lindell yet?

I don't see him listed on any of the sites linked from Oddschecker.

Anyway, update:

Democratic nomination
Harris 35.6
Biden 31.4
Buttigieg 6.5
Warren 6.4
Ocasio-Cortez 3.3
Bloomberg 2.6

Republican nomination
Trump 24.1
DeSantis 14.9
Haley 11.9
Pence 6.5
Cruz 5.0
Pompeo 3.8
Carlson 3.7
Noem 3.4
Hawley 3.1
Cotton 2.5
Tim Scott 2.4
Ivanka Trump 2.1
Crenshaw 1.9
Rick Scott 1.9
Jim Jordan 1.8
Rubio 1.8
Ryan 1.3

[Mr. Morden]

Update...

Democratic nomination
Harris 32.9
Biden 30.0
Buttigieg 6.5
Ocasio-Cortez 4.2
Booker 3.1

Republican nomination
Trump 28.0
DeSantis 15.8
Haley 11.6
Pence 6.0
Cruz 4.2
Carlson 3.7
Pompeo 3.7
Hawley 3.1
Noem 2.9
Cotton 2.1
Jim Jordan 2.1
Tim Scott 2.1
Ivanka Trump 2.1
Crenshaw 1.9
Rubio 1.9
Kanye West 1.9

[EJ24]

Kanye West 1.9

LMAO

[Mr. Morden]

Biden takes the lead in the Dem. market, and Trump hits 30 in the GOP market:

Democratic nomination
Biden 32.9
Harris 31.0
Buttigieg 6.5
Ocasio-Cortez 3.1
Booker 2.9

Republican nomination
Trump 30.0
DeSantis 16.8
Haley 12.2
Pence 6.0
Cruz 4.3
Pompeo 3.8
Noem 3.4
Hawley 3.3
Rubio 3.1
Carlson 2.8
Cotton 2.3
Tim Scott 2.3

Ironically, Harris losing her lead in the 2024 Dem. market comes about 4 years after she briefly gained the lead in the 2020 Dem. market.  Here's what Betfair had 4 years ago or so:

Dem. nomination
Harris 20.0
Warren 19.2
Biden 12.5
Sanders 10.6
M. Obama 8.3
Clinton 8.0

GOP nomination
Trump 49.5
Pence 24.4

[slothdem]

Biden remains free money.

[Mr. Morden]

Update...

Democratic nomination
Biden 33.5
Harris 31.0
Buttigieg 5.5
Warren 4.5
Duckworth 3.4
Booker 3.1
Bloomberg 2.6
Ocasio-Cortez 2.6
M. Obama 2.4

Republican nomination
Trump 31.0
DeSantis 16.8
Haley 12.2
Pence 6.0
Cruz 4.3
Carlson 3.8
Pompeo 3.7
Noem 3.4
Hawley 3.3
Cotton 2.3
Rubio 2.2
Tim Scott 2.2

[GregTheGreat657]

Update...

Democratic nomination
Biden 33.5
Harris 31.0
Buttigieg 5.5
Warren 4.5
Duckworth 3.4
Booker 3.1
Bloomberg 2.6
Ocasio-Cortez 2.6
M. Obama 2.4

Republican nomination
Trump 31.0
DeSantis 16.8
Haley 12.2
Pence 6.0
Cruz 4.3
Carlson 3.8
Pompeo 3.7
Noem 3.4
Hawley 3.3
Cotton 2.3
Rubio 2.2
Tim Scott 2.2

Most of the list is prime comedy material. Haley at 12.2, Pence at 6.0 (should be lower), Pompeo at 3.7 (should be lower). The GOP WILL NOT nominate a neocon in 2024.

[Minnesota Mike]

There's absurd value on those Biden numbers.

[Mr. Morden]

I guess Biden seeming to be ignorant of the fact that we have troops in Syria has convinced more people that that his mental acuity is slipping, and he’s not going to run again.  

In any case, Biden has slipped into a tie with Harris for the lead for the Dem. nomination:

Democratic nomination
Biden 31.0
Harris 31.0
Buttigieg 6.4
Warren 4.8
Duckworth 3.4
Ocasio-Cortez 3.3
Bloomberg 2.6
M. Obama 2.4

Republican nomination
Trump 30.0
DeSantis 16.8
Haley 11.4
Pence 6.0
Carlson 4.2
Cruz 4.0
Pompeo 3.6
Noem 3.4
Hawley 3.3
Cotton 2.6
Tim Scott 2.4
Rubio 2.2
I. Trump 2.1
Romney 1.5
Rick Scott 1.4
Crenshaw 1.3

[Mr. Morden]

Biden's again alone in the top spot for the Dem. nomination, though still not *that* far ahead of Harris:

Democratic nomination
Biden 32.4
Harris 30.5
Buttigieg 5.8
Warren 4.2
Duckworth 3.4
Ocasio-Cortez 3.3
M. Obama 2.6

Republican nomination
Trump 31.8
DeSantis 17.4
Haley 11.6
Pence 7.2
Cruz 4.2
Carlson 4.0
Pompeo 3.8
Noem 3.4
Hawley 3.3
Cotton 3.1
Tim Scott 2.4
Rubio 2.2
I. Trump 1.9
Sasse 1.8
Romney 1.5

[Mr. Morden]

Biden and Harris are once again tied for the lead for the Dem. nomination.  And Trump has been making notable gains in the GOP market in the last couple of weeks:

Democratic nomination
Biden 31.8
Harris 31.8
Buttigieg 5.8
Duckworth 3.4
Warren 3.3
Newsom 2.8
M. Obama 2.5
Ocasio-Cortez 2.5
Booker 2.4

Republican nomination
Trump 37.5
DeSantis 15.4
Haley 11.4
Pence 9.5
Cruz 4.0
Carlson 3.8
Pompeo 3.7
Hawley 3.1
Noem 3.1
Cotton 2.9
Rubio 2.1
I. Trump 2.1

[Mr. Morden]

Biden again takes a (very slim) lead over Harris for the Dem. nomination, while Trump surges all the way to 45 to win the GOP nomination….

Democratic nomination
Biden 31.8
Harris 31.0
Buttigieg 5.4
Duckworth 3.4
Ocasio-Cortez 3.1
Warren 2.9
Newsom 2.8
Booker 2.4
M. Obama 2.4

Republican nomination
Trump 45.0
DeSantis 12.4
Haley 10.5
Pence 7.8
Carlson 3.4
Pompeo 3.4
Cruz 3.1
Hawley 2.6
Cotton 2.5
Noem 2.2
T. Scott 2.2
I. Trump 1.9

Since the market rates Trump as notably more likely to win his party’s nomination than Biden does to win his, does that mean it now thinks Trump is the most likely individual to win in 2024?  No, it still thinks Biden would be quite likely to win the GE, conditional on him being the nominee:

Winning Individual
Biden 21.7
Trump 19.6
Harris 13.8
DeSantis 7.8
Haley 5.0
Pence 4.8
Buttigieg 2.8
Warren 2.1
Pompeo 1.8
Carlson 1.5
L. Cheney 1.5
Noem 1.5

And here’s the market for winning individual in 2020, roughly 4 years ago at this point:

Trump 28.0
Harris 11.4
Pence 8.4
Warren 7.5
M. Obama 5.3
Sanders 5.0
Zuckerberg 4.8
Biden 3.8
The Rock 3.8
Oprah Winfrey 3.4
Booker 2.6
Gillibrand 2.5
Clinton 2.4
Castro 2.1
Franken 2.1
P. Ryan 2.1

[Mr. Morden]

Trump now narrowly ahead of Biden in the winning individual market (both here and on most of the other betting sites):

Democratic nomination
Biden 31.4
Harris 31.0
Buttigieg 5.0
Duckworth 3.4
Ocasio-Cortez 3.1
Newsom 2.8
M. Obama 2.4
Warren 2.4

Republican nomination
Trump 44.8
DeSantis 13.8
Haley 11.4
Pence 6.8
Cruz 3.7
Carlson 3.4
Pompeo 3.4
Cotton 2.9

Winning Individual
Trump 22.6
Biden 20.1
Harris 13.1
DeSantis 7.5
Haley 4.8
Pence 3.6
Buttigieg 3.3
Warren 2.1
Pompeo 1.9
Dwayne Johnson 1.8

[Mr. Morden]

Update....

Democratic nomination
Biden 31.8
Harris 29.2
Buttigieg 6.8
Warren 4.2
Duckworth 3.4
Klobuchar 2.9
Ocasio-Cortez 2.6
Newsom 2.1
Bloomberg 1.9
Booker 1.9

Republican nomination
Trump 43.3
DeSantis 15.8
Haley 11.1
Pence 7.2
Carlson 4.0
Pompeo 3.8
Cruz 3.4
Tim Scott 2.8
Cotton 2.6
Noem 2.6

Winning Individual
Trump 23.2
Biden 16.3
Harris 12.2
DeSantis 8.8
Haley 4.5
Pence 3.4
Buttigieg 3.3
Dwayne Johnson 2.3
Warren 2.2
Carlson 2.1
Pompeo 2.1

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump isn't gonna win as soon as Biden campaigns for Prez