Was the "anti-lockdown" vote phenomenon real?

[EJ24]

?

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think it was to some degree unfortunately and it ended up helping Trump. It gave Trump more leverage to paint the Democrats as "anti-freedom" and he shifted the conversation to that instead of his botched COVID response. Was a coincidence that some of the biggest swings to Trump were in some of the areas most heavily impacted by COVID? With that being said, I don't think hat was the difference between a close election and a Joe Biden landslide.

[Hammy]

Yes, but probably didn't matter more than a point in any given area. Nevada was probably the state it had the most impact.

[DaleCooper]

Yes, although more specifically, the Democratic Party made the huge mistake of letting Trump be the "back to work" candidate. People that are unemployed because of lockdowns or were not allowed to wear a mask and go spend a final moment with their dying loved one in the hospital are not the same as the dumb anti-mask COVID-denying MAGA rally crowds, and I think the Democrats had the opportunity of being the party of supporting a sensible return to "normalcy" with the proper precautions as opposed to Trump's insanity.

It was also a mistake to completely suspend door knocking and in-person campaign events. There was no reason for Biden to not host limited-attendance drive-in rallies or outdoor, socially-distanced Q&As as early as May. Millions of voters have to risk contracting COVID at work every day whether they want to or not, so to have Democrats seemingly in hiding was a bad look regardless of whether it was the best public health decision.

[Pericles]

Most people disapproved of Trump's Covid response (more than they disapproved of him overall) and wanted stronger restrictions. Maybe Trump made gains with a few demographics due to lockdowns but overall Covid was a big liability for him and his stance was a net vote loser.

[wbrocks67]

Most people disapproved of Trump's Covid response (more than they disapproved of him overall) and wanted stronger restrictions. Maybe Trump made gains with a few demographics due to lockdowns but overall Covid was a big liability for him and his stance was a net vote loser.

Yeah, I fail to see any evidence of 'anti-lockdown' voting helping Trump. And Trump was not the "back to work" candidate. That would imply he had a strategy and plan to get people safely back to work. He did not have any of that besides barking about everything getting back to normal.

[Tokugawa Sexgod Ieyasu]

Yes, and it probably made the difference between a relatively early call in Nevada and the days-long nail-biter that we actually got. I also have a pet theory that it explains some of the non-Miami-Dade Hispanic swings--a concept that I laughed off when a blue avatar mooted it before the election actually happened, so I guess this is me eating crow to some extent.

[ponderosa peen 🌲]

Even if you think the anti-lockdown voters were already pre-disposed to vote for him, I think it could very easily be true that lockdowns (and cultural resentments bound up in them) pushed temperamentally conservative but otherwise apolitical people to the polls (and also that it made it easier for a person who wasn't planning on voting to be persuaded to vote/dragged to polls by a highly-political friend or family member).

[mileslunn]

In some places yes.  In upper middle class suburbs, no impact if anything the opposite as people there tend to be educated and care about science.  Also most in those areas can work from home so not impacted.  It did though maybe help Trump with Hispanics as a lot have jobs where you cannot work from home.  Also in rural areas where at least initially were less impacted.

Probably one state it helped Trump was Nevada due to reliance on tourism.  Minnesota and New Hampshire were closer in 2016, yet Biden won both by 7 points while Nevada only by 2.4 points similar to 2016.  It may helped in Hawaii as Trump saw large bounce there although lost badly, but then again incumbents tend to do better there as well as GOP was unusually low during Obama era as that was his birthplace so may have just been a return to normal.

[satsuma]

I might take that in South Texas... or much of California. Though being in a red state, S. TX never got anything as strict as much of the world's lockdown policies. It's hard to use that explanation for most places because they *didn't move towards Trump*.

[thumb21]

I think overall Covid was easily a net negative issue for Trump but I do think it still helped Trump overperform the polls in the sense that a lot of anti-lockdown people are skeptical of experts in general, including pollsters, and therefore are probably less likely to answer polls.

Yes, although more specifically, the Democratic Party made the huge mistake of letting Trump be the "back to work" candidate. People that are unemployed because of lockdowns or were not allowed to wear a mask and go spend a final moment with their dying loved one in the hospital are not the same as the dumb anti-mask COVID-denying MAGA rally crowds, and I think the Democrats had the opportunity of being the party of supporting a sensible return to "normalcy" with the proper precautions as opposed to Trump's insanity.

Agree with most of this. There are a lot of people who lost their jobs or saw a cut in their income because of Covid and are more skeptical about lockdowns even if they take the virus seriously because their main priority is not drowning financially. For a lot of people, some of the only things keeping them afloat were the first round of stimulus checks and ui expansion, for which Trump got a lot of the credit.

I think vocally anti-mask people and Covid-deniers are a loud minority and not really representative of most of the voters Trump gained. There were a number of people influenced by (although not necessarily full believers) conspiracies about covid just by the nature of how information spreads online who may have been first time voters for Trump, but I think they were outnumbered by first time voters who saw Trump's Covid response as a disaster and voted for Biden.

[Ferguson97]

Yes, but it probably wasn't the difference between a landslide and the moderate victory we got.

[NOVA Green]

Yes, and it probably made the difference between a relatively early call in Nevada and the days-long nail-biter that we actually got. I also have a pet theory that it explains some of the non-Miami-Dade Hispanic swings--a concept that I laughed off when a blue avatar mooted it before the election actually happened, so I guess this is me eating crow to some extent.

I have to agree that it does seem to fit the FL narrative as well in yet another State heavily dependent upon tourism, where not only did jobs crash during the lockdown, but perhaps even more significantly workers are screwed on unemployment insurance filing bcs of actions from FL 'Pubs going back in time...

FL does have a huge chunk of workers who not only got laid off during lockdowns, but even more significantly took forever to get checks because of PUB revamping of the State unemployment filing system to screw workers over on their unemployment bennies....

[Raccoon]

The left wing mantra that everyone must be locked up in their houses until every single human on earth has a vaccine with exceptions only being made for 1) grocery store trips (big box stores only!), 2) medical attention and 3) mass gatherings to burn down buildings and rioting is not economically realistic or even feasible.

I truly resent how that has become the mainstream progressive position. I often wonder if it subconscious among progressives and the left who want to use this an opportunity to destroy capitalism and the service dominated economy of The United States.  Our capitalist economic system is not sustainable over the next several decades but even during a pandemic we are not going to destroy and rebuild an entirely new economic over the course of months.

Nor should the pandemic be an excuse to increase the surveillance state.

At the start of the pandemic, I was for lockdowns and closing the international borders of The United States as I wanted to put the pandemic behind us as quickly as possible. But the fact that we could not get people to wear masks, let alone wear them correctly made me sour on lockdowns. And I got more soured on lockdowns when it was clear that the left was going to use them as a long term solution that could take years to solve.

I voted for Biden out of fear of lockdowns! Not because I feared him locking down. I live in a state with a Democratic Governor and while it is counter intuitive, it is more likely that continued incompetence from a second Trump term would push even pro-business Democrats like Northam to close the state down.

There was an anti-lockdown vote that was cancelled out by votes by voters upset at Trump's handling of the pandemic.

Most people disapproved of Trump's Covid response (more than they disapproved of him overall) and wanted stronger restrictions. Maybe Trump made gains with a few demographics due to lockdowns but overall Covid was a big liability for him and his stance was a net vote loser.

If Americans wanted more restrictions then how come every locality that has businesses open are immediately patronized as soon they are available? We did not want lockdowns in this country as a whole!

I am proud to say that I have not ate dine in at any restaurant since March even if I do take out 2 to 3 times a week. I am proud to say I have worn a mask in all indoor public areas since April. I follow all covid precautions religiously and am proud I am not being a hypocrite, unlike many Democratic leaders.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

In upper middle class suburbs, no impact if anything the opposite as people there tend to be educated and care about science.

Strange that they support "lockdowns" in that case!

I think what they really don't mind is retaining their job with extremely limited supervision during the day. Ya know, still getting paid almost $100/hr, including for those three hour swimming pool breaks after lunch. Yup, that describes every UMC suburban person I work with that has unlimited space and never truly has to suffer any lockdown effects, except the travesty of not being able to go to Paris this year. The horror.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The left wing mantra that everyone must be locked up in their houses until every single human on earth has a vaccine with exceptions only being made for 1) grocery store trips (big box stores only!), 2) medical attention and 3) mass gatherings to burn down buildings and rioting is not economically realistic or even feasible.

I truly resent how that has become the mainstream progressive position. I often wonder if it subconscious among progressives and the left who want to use this an opportunity to destroy capitalism and the service dominated economy of The United States.  Our capitalist economic system is not sustainable over the next several decades but even during a pandemic we are not going to destroy and rebuild an entirely new economic over the course of months.

Nor should the pandemic be an excuse to increase the surveillance state.

At the start of the pandemic, I was for lockdowns and closing the international borders of The United States as I wanted to put the pandemic behind us as quickly as possible. But the fact that we could not get people to wear masks, let alone wear them correctly made me sour on lockdowns. And I got more soured on lockdowns when it was clear that the left was going to use them as a long term solution that could take years to solve.

I voted for Biden out of fear of lockdowns! Not because I feared him locking down. I live in a state with a Democratic Governor and while it is counter intuitive, it is more likely that continued incompetence from a second Trump term would push even pro-business Democrats like Northam to close the state down.

There was an anti-lockdown vote that was cancelled out by votes by voters upset at Trump's handling of the pandemic.

Most people disapproved of Trump's Covid response (more than they disapproved of him overall) and wanted stronger restrictions. Maybe Trump made gains with a few demographics due to lockdowns but overall Covid was a big liability for him and his stance was a net vote loser.

If Americans wanted more restrictions then how come every locality that has businesses open are immediately patronized as soon they are available? We did not want lockdowns in this country as a whole!

I am proud to say that I have not ate dine in at any restaurant since March even if I do take out 2 to 3 times a week. I am proud to say I have worn a mask in all indoor public areas since April. I follow all covid precautions religiously and am proud I am not being a hypocrite, unlike many Democratic leaders.

I think part of the issue is not the lockdowns themselves, but how a lot of state governments have been instituting lockdowns with no real back up plan. In NYC where I live for instance, the NYC Department of Education took a lot of missteps early on that has created a very toxic and poor school environment, and for partially taking 2 years of my education, I will never forgive them. Also, lockdowns only work when everyone participates, but instead what happens is you have a lot of people who knowingly expose themselves and then you either have to extend the lockdown or just kind of give up. Lockdowns can slow the virus but the aren't a silver bullet for getting rid of the virus, and acting like they are is a huge mistake because it doesn't set people's expectations right.

Lockdowns themselves aren't inherently bad, but when you have no plan in place for what happens to people to had in person jobs and such, that's when it becomes problematic.

You have to find that balance between personal freedom and the common good, and I feel like after a certain point the tradeoff for the lockdowns isn't worth it, and you can argue harms both personal freedom and the common good and I really don't like the attitude some have that lowering everyone to the lowest common denominator is what's best for the common good.

[Asta]

No, I don't see much evidence that this had a profound effect.

https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/blogs/stateline/2020/03/16/coronavirus-will-slam-states-dependent-on-tourism#:~:text=The%20states%20most%20affected%20will,on%20state%2Dlevel%20economic%20output.

And there are states other than Nevada and Florida whose GDP is heavily reliant on tourism. Hawaii and Colorado are two other examples. Biden did reasonably well in Colorado, didn't he? Trump outperformed his polls in nearly every state. The phenomenon is far too great of an effect to be explained by merely anti-lockdown.

And see the exit poll question "Which best describes when you decided how you would vote?"

https://www.foxnews.com/elections/2020/general-results/voter-analysis

Biden only won the "I have known all along" group 53-47. 3 out of 4 people made up their minds probably even before the pandemic. So he already was in trouble from the start.

Trump and Biden roughly split shares of people who decided over the course of campaign.
If lockdown fatigue was a factor, then we should be seeing Trump winning the "I decided over the course of campaign" by a landslide, but that's not the case.

[wbrocks67]

The left wing mantra that everyone must be locked up in their houses until every single human on earth has a vaccine with exceptions only being made for 1) grocery store trips (big box stores only!), 2) medical attention and 3) mass gatherings to burn down buildings and rioting is not economically realistic or even feasible.

I truly resent how that has become the mainstream progressive position. I often wonder if it subconscious among progressives and the left who want to use this an opportunity to destroy capitalism and the service dominated economy of The United States.  Our capitalist economic system is not sustainable over the next several decades but even during a pandemic we are not going to destroy and rebuild an entirely new economic over the course of months.

Nor should the pandemic be an excuse to increase the surveillance state.

At the start of the pandemic, I was for lockdowns and closing the international borders of The United States as I wanted to put the pandemic behind us as quickly as possible. But the fact that we could not get people to wear masks, let alone wear them correctly made me sour on lockdowns. And I got more soured on lockdowns when it was clear that the left was going to use them as a long term solution that could take years to solve.

I voted for Biden out of fear of lockdowns! Not because I feared him locking down. I live in a state with a Democratic Governor and while it is counter intuitive, it is more likely that continued incompetence from a second Trump term would push even pro-business Democrats like Northam to close the state down.

There was an anti-lockdown vote that was cancelled out by votes by voters upset at Trump's handling of the pandemic.

Most people disapproved of Trump's Covid response (more than they disapproved of him overall) and wanted stronger restrictions. Maybe Trump made gains with a few demographics due to lockdowns but overall Covid was a big liability for him and his stance was a net vote loser.

If Americans wanted more restrictions then how come every locality that has businesses open are immediately patronized as soon they are available? We did not want lockdowns in this country as a whole!

I am proud to say that I have not ate dine in at any restaurant since March even if I do take out 2 to 3 times a week. I am proud to say I have worn a mask in all indoor public areas since April. I follow all covid precautions religiously and am proud I am not being a hypocrite, unlike many Democratic leaders.

it's not though, so

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I guarantee it's real.

It might have helped the Republicans more than it should have. Republicans such as Mike DeWine were guilty of lockdowns too. But there was some Democrat in Florida who said she lost because of lockdowns.

Lockdowns were completely an unforced error, and a failure. I will go to my grave believing this.

[Paul Biya isn’t going far enough]

I guarantee it's real.

It might have helped the Republicans more than it should have. Republicans such as Mike DeWine were guilty of lockdowns too. But there was some Democrat in Florida who said she lost because of lockdowns.

Lockdowns were completely an unforced error, and a failure. I will go to my grave believing this.

Don’t say it lurker, don’t say it, don’t get yourself banned.

[Kamala Was Right About Everything]

Yes. There are a lot of uneducated, stupid, uncaring people in America who fell for the disinformation about the lockdowns (or lack thereof.) They gravitated towards Trump regardless of demographic factors.

[NOVA Green]

The left wing mantra that everyone must be locked up in their houses until every single human on earth has a vaccine with exceptions only being made for 1) grocery store trips (big box stores only!), 2) medical attention and 3) mass gatherings to burn down buildings and rioting is not economically realistic or even feasible.

I truly resent how that has become the mainstream progressive position. I often wonder if it subconscious among progressives and the left who want to use this an opportunity to destroy capitalism and the service dominated economy of The United States.  Our capitalist economic system is not sustainable over the next several decades but even during a pandemic we are not going to destroy and rebuild an entirely new economic over the course of months.

Nor should the pandemic be an excuse to increase the surveillance state.

At the start of the pandemic, I was for lockdowns and closing the international borders of The United States as I wanted to put the pandemic behind us as quickly as possible. But the fact that we could not get people to wear masks, let alone wear them correctly made me sour on lockdowns. And I got more soured on lockdowns when it was clear that the left was going to use them as a long term solution that could take years to solve.

I voted for Biden out of fear of lockdowns! Not because I feared him locking down. I live in a state with a Democratic Governor and while it is counter intuitive, it is more likely that continued incompetence from a second Trump term would push even pro-business Democrats like Northam to close the state down.

There was an anti-lockdown vote that was cancelled out by votes by voters upset at Trump's handling of the pandemic.

Most people disapproved of Trump's Covid response (more than they disapproved of him overall) and wanted stronger restrictions. Maybe Trump made gains with a few demographics due to lockdowns but overall Covid was a big liability for him and his stance was a net vote loser.

If Americans wanted more restrictions then how come every locality that has businesses open are immediately patronized as soon they are available? We did not want lockdowns in this country as a whole!

I am proud to say that I have not ate dine in at any restaurant since March even if I do take out 2 to 3 times a week. I am proud to say I have worn a mask in all indoor public areas since April. I follow all covid precautions religiously and am proud I am not being a hypocrite, unlike many Democratic leaders.

I think part of the issue is not the lockdowns themselves, but how a lot of state governments have been instituting lockdowns with no real back up plan. In NYC where I live for instance, the NYC Department of Education took a lot of missteps early on that has created a very toxic and poor school environment, and for partially taking 2 years of my education, I will never forgive them. Also, lockdowns only work when everyone participates, but instead what happens is you have a lot of people who knowingly expose themselves and then you either have to extend the lockdown or just kind of give up. Lockdowns can slow the virus but the aren't a silver bullet for getting rid of the virus, and acting like they are is a huge mistake because it doesn't set people's expectations right.

Lockdowns themselves aren't inherently bad, but when you have no plan in place for what happens to people to had in person jobs and such, that's when it becomes problematic.

You have to find that balance between personal freedom and the common good, and I feel like after a certain point the tradeoff for the lockdowns isn't worth it, and you can argue harms both personal freedom and the common good and I really don't like the attitude some have that lowering everyone to the lowest common denominator is what's best for the common good.

The "Lockdown Scene" was a necessary reaction to prevent the massive spread of COVID-19.

Unfortunately we had Republican Governors and leaders in various States from FL to GA, who outright supported an "Anti-Masking" strategy directed from the President himself.

420,000 + Americans are dead at the hands of the Pandemic, with likely 500k Americans dead by early Feb, because of the gross incompetence and negligence at the hands of Republican leaders who claimed to support "Religious Values", "Tea Party Ideology with Death Panels", while meanwhile they are supporting Death Panels for the Elderly and those with Pre-Existing Conditions at the hands of COVID-19.

This is not forgivable....  NOVA GREEN is Middle aged with Medical Conditions, as is his Wife. My Wife's clients will most likely die as well at the hands of the disease.

Younger folks might not get the gravity of the situation, and every day in the factory I gotta remind younger workers to pull up their masks above their noses, practice social distancing, while meanwhile so many of the Gen Exers seem to not realize the gravity of the situation, regardless of their political affiliation, and social attitudes on so many other major issues of the dayz...

I do the best I can in my Factory on Swing Shift, but we are the ones most likely to catch the disease as "Essential Workers", while meanwhile most of the Engineers and Mgmt are buying and living in 2nd homes to escape the disease....

Fortunately OR did a bit of a better job on unemployment s**t than most states, but still got some comrades who never received their unemployment checks from the dayz of the lockdown.

[Raccoon]

The left wing mantra that everyone must be locked up in their houses until every single human on earth has a vaccine with exceptions only being made for 1) grocery store trips (big box stores only!), 2) medical attention and 3) mass gatherings to burn down buildings and rioting is not economically realistic or even feasible.

I truly resent how that has become the mainstream progressive position. I often wonder if it subconscious among progressives and the left who want to use this an opportunity to destroy capitalism and the service dominated economy of The United States.  Our capitalist economic system is not sustainable over the next several decades but even during a pandemic we are not going to destroy and rebuild an entirely new economic over the course of months.

Nor should the pandemic be an excuse to increase the surveillance state.

At the start of the pandemic, I was for lockdowns and closing the international borders of The United States as I wanted to put the pandemic behind us as quickly as possible. But the fact that we could not get people to wear masks, let alone wear them correctly made me sour on lockdowns. And I got more soured on lockdowns when it was clear that the left was going to use them as a long term solution that could take years to solve.

I voted for Biden out of fear of lockdowns! Not because I feared him locking down. I live in a state with a Democratic Governor and while it is counter intuitive, it is more likely that continued incompetence from a second Trump term would push even pro-business Democrats like Northam to close the state down.

There was an anti-lockdown vote that was cancelled out by votes by voters upset at Trump's handling of the pandemic.

Most people disapproved of Trump's Covid response (more than they disapproved of him overall) and wanted stronger restrictions. Maybe Trump made gains with a few demographics due to lockdowns but overall Covid was a big liability for him and his stance was a net vote loser.

If Americans wanted more restrictions then how come every locality that has businesses open are immediately patronized as soon they are available? We did not want lockdowns in this country as a whole!

I am proud to say that I have not ate dine in at any restaurant since March even if I do take out 2 to 3 times a week. I am proud to say I have worn a mask in all indoor public areas since April. I follow all covid precautions religiously and am proud I am not being a hypocrite, unlike many Democratic leaders.

it's not though, so

I may have over stated it but how come there was very little criticism of the mass gatherings during the riots and protests over the summer? They are unsafe and counterproductive in normal times and even if it was outside they are a health risk during pandemic times.

Also it did give the "stay at home until everyone has a vaccine" a terrible look. As they were the same people cheering on the violence and riots.

[Motorcity]

Yes

Notice that Biden explicitly promised and made clear he was not for a national lockdown

Biden's whole campaign was "Trump is an idiot, my plan will allow us to open back up faster"

And there were posters on this very forum who thought Biden would do a another lockdown! Man were they stupid. Biden kept saying he wasn't for it but they claimed otherwise. Just people with no lives who like lockdowns who hope Biden would do what they wanted

[James Ericson]

Yes, but those people were voting for Trump anyway. A clear majority in the exit polls thought that containing the virus was more important than the economy.