Which of the Republican since '68 states will flip first?

[bee33]

My guess is Kansas or Alaska.

[If my soul was made of stone]

Kansas and Alaska seem the most poised to become genuinely competitive soon. I'd narrowly give it to Kansas over Alaska because it's less reliant on the petrochemical industry.

[TheReckoning]

I’d say Alaska. Kansas is still, at its core, a Great Plains state, and the swing against the GOP at the presidential level seems to be largely just a swing against Trump. Meanwhile, Alaska has been swinging Dem since 2000 (with the exception of 2012-2016, but it still trended D).

[MT Treasurer]

Hard to see how AK isn’t the first to fall, but I do expect UT to trend more rapidly to the left in the 2020s/2030s than any of the other states on this list, even if the GOP becomes less 'Trumpy' in its rhetoric. I think 2020 made it abundantly clear that KS' D trend, while real, has been seriously overhyped.

Surprised that UT received zero votes in this poll.

[Catalyst138]

Hard to see how AK isn’t the first to fall, but I do expect UT to trend more rapidly to the left in the 2020s/2030s than any of the other states on this list, even if the GOP becomes less 'Trumpy' in its rhetoric. I think 2020 made it abundantly clear that KS' D trend, while real, has been seriously overhyped.

Surprised that UT received zero votes in this poll.

Overhyped? Kansas swung D more than Georgia, how is that overhyped?

In fact it swung further than Alaska, so if that’s a big trend then this is as well.

[Chips]

AK.

[pbrower2a]

Alaska was closest in 2020. Kansas has the potential for a split within the Kansas GOP, and the only real growth area in Kansas is the Kansas suburbs of Kansas City. Missouri is an absolutely awful state in which to live, so the sorts of people who would fill Missouri suburbs head west into Kansas. 

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Alaska is the only one that wouldn't be completely crazy if it flipped in the next 20 years.

[allenwfm9000]

I’ll say Alaska

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I think Utah is possible though Alaska could also be the answer and while this is a relative consideration, I am still rather dubious on both the KS and AK going D narratives and I have been for some time, AK still showed some traction in that direction in 2020 in a more discernible way, while KS was close to what I expected it to be in the teen range. I guess it is a matter of performance relative to expectations and of course that can be skewed.

[Spark]

Kansas and Alaska seem the most poised to become genuinely competitive soon. I'd narrowly give it to Kansas over Alaska because it's less reliant on the petrochemical industry.

[I’m not Stu]

Kansas first. Alaska second.

[Samof94]

Alaska is the most obvious choice given it is competitive at the state level.

[beesley]

I voted Alaska, but I think there's a high chance that if any of these flipped in one election another of them would.

[I’m not Stu]

I voted Alaska, but I think there's a high chance that if any of these flipped in one election another of them would.

Yes. If Alaska flips, I think Kansas does too.

[redjohn]

AK will become competitive first, followed by KS, and potentially followed by UT as the GOP continues to nominate neo-fascists.