RI-GOV 2022

[Not Me, Us]

With Raimondo set to take over as Commerce Secretary, Lt. Governor Daniel McKee is set to become Governor. McKee's quite moderate and faced a primary challenge in 2018, is it possible he loses the Dem primary? I could see someone like Seth Magaziner make a run.

[Meatball Ron]

This primary was always destined to be super crowded and I don't think McKee's ascension changes that at all. He won't get that much incumbent-style deference.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

This race starts out as a tossup, no matter who the Democratic nominee is.

[If my soul was made of stone]

Rhode Island gubernatorial elections have a very interesting history of being clusters. I'm curious to see what the Moderate Party does and if any noted independents plan to show up on the ballot.

[NerdyBohemian]

If you wanna know how terrible McKee is, the Rhode Island Federation of Teachers endorsed his Republican opponent a few years ago.

[Torrain]

I’m fairly ignorant of RI politics, but I’ve had one big question on my mind for weeks now.

Given that RI is almost guaranteed to lose a congressional district now, what are the odds one of the Congressmen jumps into the gubernatorial race?

Or are they destined to duke it out to represent the new RI-AL seat?

[Not Me, Us]

I’m fairly ignorant of RI politics, but I’ve had one big question on my mind for weeks now.

Given that RI is almost guaranteed to lose a congressional district now, what are the odds one of the Congressmen jumps into the gubernatorial race?

Or are they destined to duke it out to represent the new RI-AL seat?

Prior to Raimondo joining the cabinet, I would have said it was pretty likely, but now I'm not so sure. Langevin is pretty moderate iirc, and Cicilline is part of Congressional leadership and close to the Dem establishment, making him unlikely to primary a sitting Governor.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

This race starts out as a tossup, no matter who the Democratic nominee is.

I see no reason for a Biden+21 state to start off as a tossup.

[If my soul was made of stone]

This race starts out as a tossup, no matter who the Democratic nominee is.

I see no reason for a Biden+21 state to start off as a tossup.

Raimondo in 2014 was the first non-incumbent Democrat to win the governor's chair in the state since 1990, and that was only by 4.5 points in a three-way race; in 2018 she only got 52.6%. Gubernatorial partisanship is weird, and Rhode Island is a sterling example of its weirdness.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

This race starts out as a tossup, no matter who the Democratic nominee is.

I see no reason for a Biden+21 state to start off as a tossup.

Raimondo in 2014 was the first non-incumbent Democrat to win the governor's chair in the state since 1990, and that was only by 4.5 points in a three-way race; in 2018 she only got 52.6%. Gubernatorial partisanship is weird, and Rhode Island is a sterling example of its weirdness.

Raimondo won by 15. Likely D, Not Tossup.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

This race starts out as a tossup, no matter who the Democratic nominee is.

I see no reason for a Biden+21 state to start off as a tossup.

Raimondo in 2014 was the first non-incumbent Democrat to win the governor's chair in the state since 1990, and that was only by 4.5 points in a three-way race; in 2018 she only got 52.6%. Gubernatorial partisanship is weird, and Rhode Island is a sterling example of its weirdness.

This, it's New England with a democrat governor, of course it's a tossup, especially in a Dem midterm.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

This race starts out as a tossup, no matter who the Democratic nominee is.

I see no reason for a Biden+21 state to start off as a tossup.

Raimondo in 2014 was the first non-incumbent Democrat to win the governor's chair in the state since 1990, and that was only by 4.5 points in a three-way race; in 2018 she only got 52.6%. Gubernatorial partisanship is weird, and Rhode Island is a sterling example of its weirdness.

Raimondo won by 15. Likely D, Not Tossup.

That was with several more conservative third party candidates getting 8%. And RI has a history of electing Republicans for governor, like other New England states. We don't know what the dynamics of this race will be in 2022 yet, which is why it's a tossup. McKee has no name recognition and even after a year of being governor he won't be a lock to win the primary. If he does win the primary, a half-competent Republican could easily take him out, especially after eight years of a Democratic administration that has generally received low approval ratings from Rhode Islanders. Fung would definitely do better in 2018 and 2014 if he runs again. Scott Avedisian is another good option for Republicans. A more Trumpy Republican wouldn't win but could still get within 10 points in an R wave environment

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

This race starts out as a tossup, no matter who the Democratic nominee is.

I see no reason for a Biden+21 state to start off as a tossup.

Raimondo in 2014 was the first non-incumbent Democrat to win the governor's chair in the state since 1990, and that was only by 4.5 points in a three-way race; in 2018 she only got 52.6%. Gubernatorial partisanship is weird, and Rhode Island is a sterling example of its weirdness.

Raimondo won by 15. Likely D, Not Tossup.

That was with several more conservative third party candidates getting 8%. And RI has a history of electing Republicans for governor, like other New England states. We don't know what the dynamics of this race will be in 2022 yet, which is why it's a tossup. McKee has no name recognition and even after a year of being governor he won't be a lock to win the primary. If he does win the primary, a half-competent Republican could easily take him out, especially after eight years of a Democratic administration that has generally received low approval ratings from Rhode Islanders. Fung would definitely do better in 2018 and 2014 if he runs again. Scott Avedisian is another good option for Republicans. A more Trumpy Republican wouldn't win but could still get within 10 points in an R wave environment

Bill Gilbert   was not a conservative, and why do you assume that no 3rd parties will run in 2022. Rhode Island is fundamentally a blue state. No republican has beaten an incumbent democrat governor in Rhode Island since 1962.

[mikhaela]

Who do you think would win the primary between Daniel McKee and Aaron Regunberg?

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Titanium Likely D

[Sir Mohamed]

Primary is Likely McKee and the GE Likely D or close to Safe D.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

If Gorbea runs, or Langevin, they're probably more likely to win the primary than McKee - maybe even Magaziner. Regunberg is too progressive to win a primary. McKee is so unknown

[Not Me, Us]

Who do you think would win the primary between Daniel McKee and Aaron Regunberg?

If Regunberg couldn't beat McKee in a low-profile primary for LG in 2018, he couldn't beat him in a high-profile primary for Governor. Likely McKee.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Secretary of State Nellie Gorbea is in and this primary just got a lot more interesting

https://turnto10.com/amp/politics/nellie-gorbea-to-announce-run-for-rhode-island-governor

[Chips]

Likely D.

[coloradocowboi]

Who do you think would win the primary between Daniel McKee and Aaron Regunberg?

If Regunberg couldn't beat McKee in a low-profile primary for LG in 2018, he couldn't beat him in a high-profile primary for Governor. Likely McKee.

I don't follow this logic at all. Progressive positions are uniformly demonstrated to be more popular with Dem primary voters in opinion polls. And you're saying if more attention is paid to McKee's deviation from them that somehow this will help him? I'm doubtful.

The higher profile the race, the more likely he is to go down.

Anyway, it doesn't matter though bc I think Gorbea will win

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's gonna follow a 303 track the D states just like it did in 2020

[JMT]

Some updates:

https://twitter.com/danmcgowan/status/1438163005045358595?s=21

https://twitter.com/fitzprov/status/1437801446339121159?s=21

[Not Me, Us]

It's good that McKee is getting challengers, he's way to right-wing for a state as blue as RI.

[Not Me, Us]

https://twitter.com/mattbrownRI/status/1440677265864527872

Former RI Secretary of State Matt Brown has announced his candidacy on a ticket with State Senator Cynthia Mendes. He challenged Raimondo in 2018 and lost pretty badly, but he could maybe make it with a plurality in '22.