States that Biden/Trump campaign were wrong about

[It's Time.]

It's pretty clear that Biden and Trump had a much better idea of what the election was going to be like than the media polls did. Biden's campaign manager said that they were not up by double digits (https://tinyurl.com/y64bxyxe) and Biden didn't go to states where polls suggested a potentially competitive race like Texas or Alaska or Missouri. Trump probably thought he was going to win AZ/GA, and he also knew that the rust belt was going to be close.

Trump spent a lot of money in Arizona, and he probably thought he had a good chance at winning the state. I think Trump expected to win FL by 2% or so, and it seems like Republicans overperformed their own expectations in Miami-Dade. Trump also thought he would win Georgia, and it was the only swing state where Trump outspent Biden. Trump probably thought he would win Iowa and Ohio easily, which was correct. Trump campaign probably thought they would lose Michigan by 2% or so, as they spent a lot of money there. It seems like Trump thought MN would be much close than it was because he went there many times and spent a lot of money. Trump also went to New England late in the election, which tells me that Trump thought it might be closer. I think Trump thought he would win NC narrowly. Biden went to Ohio many times during the cycle, so he probably thought the state would be closer. Trump probably thought that PA would go down the wire. Trump spent very little in Texas, so he must have thought the state would vote GOP easily. Trump also spent a lot in Wisconsin, so he also must have thought it was close.

Biden probably thought he would win 290-248 or so, so they were more accurate than Trump. I think Biden's campaign felt confident that ads would do the trick in AZ, as Biden did not go to AZ many times but spent a lot of money on the state. Biden probably thought he had a chance at FL in the summer, but when September/October rolled around, it was clear that the state was probably gone. Biden campaign also spent very little money in GA, so it was clear that they were not confident in the state. Biden also must have thought Iowa was close than it was because he went there a few times, although this could just be for down-ballot races. The Biden campaign also must have thought they would improve in New England. Biden probably viewed NC as a state that he could win, although was tilting Trump. Biden also visited Ohio many times during the campaign, which could mean he thought it would be closer, or maybe Biden just went to OH because it was next to swing states MI and PA. Biden also probably thought he would win PA judging by the fact that he basically lived there during the campaign cycle. Biden also thought he would win MI. It is also clear that both Biden and Trump overestimated Trump's chances of winning MN. Biden also probably overestimated his margin in Wisconsin slightly.

Of course, this is all opinionated, and I'm open to discussion. Feel free to disagree.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Note: When I refer to Biden or Trump I am referring to mainly their campaigns, not necessarily them as individuals.

One of the major reasons why I knew Texas wasn't a tossup was because Biden really didn't visit it, Harris did a small rally in Dallas I think but that was it. If Texas was really anybody's game Biden would have literally camped out there for a few weeks. Why? If Biden took Texas that would have been the whole ball game, and it wouldn't make sense trying to win other tossup states like Wisconsin, Arizona, Pennsylvania, if you can win it in Texas. Additionally, Trump never visited the state since late 2019 so his campaign expected to hang onto it, although the margin could have been competitive.

By the final two weeks it should have been pretty clear that Florida was going to Trump, which is why Biden probably hung up on it. Pennsylvania, the Trump campaign likely believed it to be pure tossup which is why he barnstormed the state multiple times. I think towards the end, Trump knew Minnesota and NH were out of reach which is why he probably winded down there. I agree with you that Trump likely expected to win Georgia as he didn't visit the state much, I think only two rallies were there. However, he constantly visited NC which tells me his campaign viewed it as a pure tossup along with Pennsylvania. Finally as for Arizona and Wisconsin, I think both campaigns believed they were ever so slightly favored there.

[seeking mystical annihilation]

I agree fully regarding Minnesota. It bounced back harder than many in 2018 and has a very firm Dem floor, yet Trump was so caught up in the mystique of flipping a Clinton state, especially the Republican white whale, that he used a lot of resources that could've been better spent elsewhere. The modest trends in his favor in rural areas were more than counteracted by the massive raw votes coming out of MSP. If he wanted to flip a Clinton state, he could've taken advantage of Hispanic trends and lockdown backlash in Nevada, but neither campaign cared much about it.

[Skill and Chance]

I think they had figured most things out, but Biden going to Cleveland instead of Milwaukee or Phoenix or even Las Vegas the day before the election was a significant error.  It seems like Biden's people thought he had more comfortable leads in AZ/NV than he actually did.  I don't know what they were seeing in OH, but it was odd because they clearly picked up on PA and MI being closer than public polling. 

Trump's camp clearly spent too much time being worried about Florida while laughing off Georgia.  The aggressive MN/NH spending eventually stopped, but it could have been better deployed in NV and AZ.  The Trump campaign event in Newport News, VA was dumb, but not as dumb as Biden in Cleveland because it was September and he did improve notably in nearby parts of NC.  Both sides behaved like the September/October Biden polling lead in NC was real, which you could either say was a waste of time when Trump should have been in Georgia/Arizona or that his campaign did just enough to save the state. 

[It's Time.]

I think they had figured most things out, but Biden going to Cleveland instead of Milwaukee or Phoenix or even Las Vegas the day before the election was a significant error.  It seems like Biden's people thought he had more comfortable leads in AZ/NV than he actually did.  I don't know what they were seeing in OH, but it was odd because they clearly picked up on PA and MI being closer than public polling. 

Trump's camp clearly spent too much time being worried about Florida while laughing off Georgia.  The aggressive MN/NH spending eventually stopped, but it could have been better deployed in NV and AZ.  The Trump campaign event in Newport News, VA was dumb, but not as dumb as Biden in Cleveland because it was September and he did improve notably in nearby parts of NC.  Both sides behaved like the September/October Biden polling lead in NC was real, which you could either say was a waste of time when Trump should have been in Georgia/Arizona or that his campaign did just enough to save the state. 

I agree. Florida was not a state Biden could win after the summer.

[Roll Roons]

I think they had figured most things out, but Biden going to Cleveland instead of Milwaukee or Phoenix or even Las Vegas the day before the election was a significant error.  It seems like Biden's people thought he had more comfortable leads in AZ/NV than he actually did.  I don't know what they were seeing in OH, but it was odd because they clearly picked up on PA and MI being closer than public polling. 

Trump's camp clearly spent too much time being worried about Florida while laughing off Georgia.  The aggressive MN/NH spending eventually stopped, but it could have been better deployed in NV and AZ.  The Trump campaign event in Newport News, VA was dumb, but not as dumb as Biden in Cleveland because it was September and he did improve notably in nearby parts of NC.  Both sides behaved like the September/October Biden polling lead in NC was real, which you could either say was a waste of time when Trump should have been in Georgia/Arizona or that his campaign did just enough to save the state. 

I agree. Florida was not a state Biden could win after the summer.

Why the summer?

[Skill and Chance]

I think they had figured most things out, but Biden going to Cleveland instead of Milwaukee or Phoenix or even Las Vegas the day before the election was a significant error.  It seems like Biden's people thought he had more comfortable leads in AZ/NV than he actually did.  I don't know what they were seeing in OH, but it was odd because they clearly picked up on PA and MI being closer than public polling. 

Trump's camp clearly spent too much time being worried about Florida while laughing off Georgia.  The aggressive MN/NH spending eventually stopped, but it could have been better deployed in NV and AZ.  The Trump campaign event in Newport News, VA was dumb, but not as dumb as Biden in Cleveland because it was September and he did improve notably in nearby parts of NC.  Both sides behaved like the September/October Biden polling lead in NC was real, which you could either say was a waste of time when Trump should have been in Georgia/Arizona or that his campaign did just enough to save the state. 

I agree. Florida was not a state Biden could win after the summer.

Why the summer?

There was great concern about a March in NYC level COVID crisis happening in Florida in July. 

[MRS. MEE SUM CHU]

I think they had figured most things out, but Biden going to Cleveland instead of Milwaukee or Phoenix or even Las Vegas the day before the election was a significant error.  It seems like Biden's people thought he had more comfortable leads in AZ/NV than he actually did.  I don't know what they were seeing in OH, but it was odd because they clearly picked up on PA and MI being closer than public polling.  

Trump's camp clearly spent too much time being worried about Florida while laughing off Georgia.  The aggressive MN/NH spending eventually stopped, but it could have been better deployed in NV and AZ.  The Trump campaign event in Newport News, VA was dumb, but not as dumb as Biden in Cleveland because it was September and he did improve notably in nearby parts of NC.  Both sides behaved like the September/October Biden polling lead in NC was real, which you could either say was a waste of time when Trump should have been in Georgia/Arizona or that his campaign did just enough to save the state.  

I agree. Florida was not a state Biden could win after the summer.

Why the summer?

There was great concern about a March in NYC level COVID crisis happening in Florida in July.  

Would that have improved Biden’s margin in South Florida and Metro Orlando by enough to win the state?

[It's Time.]

I think they had figured most things out, but Biden going to Cleveland instead of Milwaukee or Phoenix or even Las Vegas the day before the election was a significant error.  It seems like Biden's people thought he had more comfortable leads in AZ/NV than he actually did.  I don't know what they were seeing in OH, but it was odd because they clearly picked up on PA and MI being closer than public polling. 

Trump's camp clearly spent too much time being worried about Florida while laughing off Georgia.  The aggressive MN/NH spending eventually stopped, but it could have been better deployed in NV and AZ.  The Trump campaign event in Newport News, VA was dumb, but not as dumb as Biden in Cleveland because it was September and he did improve notably in nearby parts of NC.  Both sides behaved like the September/October Biden polling lead in NC was real, which you could either say was a waste of time when Trump should have been in Georgia/Arizona or that his campaign did just enough to save the state. 

I agree. Florida was not a state Biden could win after the summer.

Why the summer?

When September hit, Biden's poll numbers in Florida took a big hit. IDK why, maybe COVID.

[It's Time.]

I think they had figured most things out, but Biden going to Cleveland instead of Milwaukee or Phoenix or even Las Vegas the day before the election was a significant error.  It seems like Biden's people thought he had more comfortable leads in AZ/NV than he actually did.  I don't know what they were seeing in OH, but it was odd because they clearly picked up on PA and MI being closer than public polling.  

Trump's camp clearly spent too much time being worried about Florida while laughing off Georgia.  The aggressive MN/NH spending eventually stopped, but it could have been better deployed in NV and AZ.  The Trump campaign event in Newport News, VA was dumb, but not as dumb as Biden in Cleveland because it was September and he did improve notably in nearby parts of NC.  Both sides behaved like the September/October Biden polling lead in NC was real, which you could either say was a waste of time when Trump should have been in Georgia/Arizona or that his campaign did just enough to save the state.  

I agree. Florida was not a state Biden could win after the summer.

Why the summer?

There was great concern about a March in NYC level COVID crisis happening in Florida in July.  

Would that have improved Biden’s margin in South Florida and Metro Orlando by enough to win the state?

Maybe, but the state certainly would have been closer.

[EJ24]

I remember a lot of the Trumpers on this very forum who were 100% convinced MN was flipping.

Not sure if they were basing this on anything based in reality or their hatred for Ilhan Omar, but I'm glad I never bought into that.

[mileslunn]

My guess is Biden's campaign felt quite confident they would win, but also thought it would be closer than public polls showed.  Trump knew they were behind, but Trump being delusional probably didn't believe his polls and knowing his hot temper when bad news delivered quite possible his campaign didn't even give him daily numbers or tried to spin them to Trump to make them look better than really were.  Looking at states here is my thoughts

New Hampshire: Despite its closeness in 2016, I don't think either campaign saw this in play never mind with only four electoral votes and well out of the way, wasn't seen as worth it

ME-02: Considering neither campaign spent much there, my guess is they either saw it as out of reach or too unimportant

NE-02: Trump visited there so must have seen it in play

Minnesota: Trump visited there but Biden didn't.  I think polls in both never showed in play but after George Floyd protests, some in Trump camp thought their law and order message could flip it.

Nevada: Biden didn't visit there but Trump did so Trump campaign must have saw it in play.  I wonder if campaigns had bilingual or English only polls since if in English only, they would underpoll Hispanics who are 25% of state's population. 

Michigan: I think both sides saw this as lean Biden, but closer than public polls suggested

Wisconsin: Same thing here, but polling state is hard and my guess is both showed Biden ahead but not by margin of public polls did but not as close as it was

Pennsylvania: Both saw it in play with Biden having slight edge but turnout key as Trump supporters more motivated.  Also most Biden voting by mail thus why Trump campaign fought hard to limit that knowing if that done, chances were good in state while expanded mail in ballot helped Biden.

Arizona: I think both saw Biden slightly ahead but inside margin of error

Georgia: Biden's team I think saw it as pure tossup.  Trump campaign thought they were ahead but fact he visited there multiple times suggests they were worried it was at risk (Biden didn't need to win it while Trump did).

North Carolina: Both saw as pure tossup, but Biden team I heard on election night were optimistic they would win it but close.

Florida: Both campaigns by election night thought Trump had edge.

Ohio: Trump campaign thought they had it in bag and did.  Biden campaign saw it as an uphill battle but thought it would be closer and more importantly heavily targeted Toledo and Youngstown market so the ads would also be heard in Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Iowa: I don't think either campaign really thought this would go for Biden, but both due to campaigns thought it would be closer than it was.  I think both went there more due to down ballot races as Ernst did slightly worse than Trump and IA-01, IA-02, and IA-03 are all swings only IA-04 is solidly GOP. 

Texas: Neither saw it in play.  One Canadian site leantossup.ca was very bullish and confident Biden would win here, but the logic I felt was more wishful thinking than reality.  It was based on idea, suburbs swinging left so therefore any state that most live in metro areas will vote Democrat.  Reality is while suburbs swung left, its not uniform and they aren't monolithic.  Trump did worse in suburbs than Romney and Bush but he still won many.  They are quite diverse and not monolithic as site argues.  They use Canadian, British and Australian elections to argue global trends, but in reality UK and Australia had suburbs go Conservative and they cherry pick Putney (which is urban not suburban) and a few Melbourne ones that swung left.  Canada they swung left federally, but provincially went right.

[Da2017]

https://www.ntd.com/we-are-not-ahead-by-double-digits-biden-campaign-manager-reportedly-admits-polls-inflated_518308.html Once again shows the Biden campaign has better instinct than punditry. This was much closer than anyone thought. Maybe Biden could of played a bit more defense in Nevada.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Obviously NC and FL were the big ones, I really thought ads would wind up winning either one

But, Harris was oversold as Veep, she didn't maximize the AA turnout like she was supposed to do in either FL or NC. Also D's underperformed in IA and along with Warren, she doesn't help in Iowa. Klobuchar would have definitely helped in more

If Harris ever runs for Prez, she will be weak in Iowa and would have to play her hand in NH

[Interlocutor]

Nevada: Biden didn't visit there but Trump did so Trump campaign must have saw it in play.  I wonder if campaigns had bilingual or English only polls since if in English only, they would underpoll Hispanics who are 25% of state's population. 

It ain't called the 'Nevada Problem' for nothin

[It's Time.]

My guess is Biden's campaign felt quite confident they would win, but also thought it would be closer than public polls showed.  Trump knew they were behind, but Trump being delusional probably didn't believe his polls and knowing his hot temper when bad news delivered quite possible his campaign didn't even give him daily numbers or tried to spin them to Trump to make them look better than really were.  Looking at states here is my thoughts

New Hampshire: Despite its closeness in 2016, I don't think either campaign saw this in play never mind with only four electoral votes and well out of the way, wasn't seen as worth it

ME-02: Considering neither campaign spent much there, my guess is they either saw it as out of reach or too unimportant

NE-02: Trump visited there so must have seen it in play

Minnesota: Trump visited there but Biden didn't.  I think polls in both never showed in play but after George Floyd protests, some in Trump camp thought their law and order message could flip it.

Nevada: Biden didn't visit there but Trump did so Trump campaign must have saw it in play.  I wonder if campaigns had bilingual or English only polls since if in English only, they would underpoll Hispanics who are 25% of state's population. 

Michigan: I think both sides saw this as lean Biden, but closer than public polls suggested

Wisconsin: Same thing here, but polling state is hard and my guess is both showed Biden ahead but not by margin of public polls did but not as close as it was

Pennsylvania: Both saw it in play with Biden having slight edge but turnout key as Trump supporters more motivated.  Also most Biden voting by mail thus why Trump campaign fought hard to limit that knowing if that done, chances were good in state while expanded mail in ballot helped Biden.

Arizona: I think both saw Biden slightly ahead but inside margin of error

Georgia: Biden's team I think saw it as pure tossup.  Trump campaign thought they were ahead but fact he visited there multiple times suggests they were worried it was at risk (Biden didn't need to win it while Trump did).

North Carolina: Both saw as pure tossup, but Biden team I heard on election night were optimistic they would win it but close.

Florida: Both campaigns by election night thought Trump had edge.

Ohio: Trump campaign thought they had it in bag and did.  Biden campaign saw it as an uphill battle but thought it would be closer and more importantly heavily targeted Toledo and Youngstown market so the ads would also be heard in Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Iowa: I don't think either campaign really thought this would go for Biden, but both due to campaigns thought it would be closer than it was.  I think both went there more due to down ballot races as Ernst did slightly worse than Trump and IA-01, IA-02, and IA-03 are all swings only IA-04 is solidly GOP. 

Texas: Neither saw it in play.  One Canadian site leantossup.ca was very bullish and confident Biden would win here, but the logic I felt was more wishful thinking than reality.  It was based on idea, suburbs swinging left so therefore any state that most live in metro areas will vote Democrat.  Reality is while suburbs swung left, its not uniform and they aren't monolithic.  Trump did worse in suburbs than Romney and Bush but he still won many.  They are quite diverse and not monolithic as site argues.  They use Canadian, British and Australian elections to argue global trends, but in reality UK and Australia had suburbs go Conservative and they cherry pick Putney (which is urban not suburban) and a few Melbourne ones that swung left.  Canada they swung left federally, but provincially went right.

Honestly, I think Trump went to the right places, and it's clear he went for winning FL and 2/3 rustbelt states, which is a fine strategy, but he should have focused more on GA/AZ and focus more on WI than MI.

[wbrocks67]

I think they had figured most things out, but Biden going to Cleveland instead of Milwaukee or Phoenix or even Las Vegas the day before the election was a significant error.  It seems like Biden's people thought he had more comfortable leads in AZ/NV than he actually did.  I don't know what they were seeing in OH, but it was odd because they clearly picked up on PA and MI being closer than public polling. 

Trump's camp clearly spent too much time being worried about Florida while laughing off Georgia.  The aggressive MN/NH spending eventually stopped, but it could have been better deployed in NV and AZ.  The Trump campaign event in Newport News, VA was dumb, but not as dumb as Biden in Cleveland because it was September and he did improve notably in nearby parts of NC.  Both sides behaved like the September/October Biden polling lead in NC was real, which you could either say was a waste of time when Trump should have been in Georgia/Arizona or that his campaign did just enough to save the state. 

I don't think Biden's team thought they had a comfortable lead in AZ. He barely went. I doubt they expected him to win it that much. As for Cleveland the day before the election, he only went because he was in the area on his Western PA swing. It's not like it was a purposeful separate trip.

[Adam Griffin]

I will say regarding GA: I think both campaigns knew it was coming down to the wire. That's why Obama, Harris, Biden and Trump all visited it within the final 72 hours of the campaign. The Trump campaign (Donald, Ivanka, etc) visited the state multiple times in the final two months as well.

Likewise and somewhat unrelated, similar dynamics played out in GA during the runoff (with Trump visiting one of the most GOP-friendly bastions of the state right before the election - just as he did in November).


If I had to guess, I'd imagine that NC was the biggest shock for both campaigns.

[MT Treasurer]

Biden: OH, IA, AZ, also NC if they really considered it more winnable than GA (which they did, apparently)
Trump: MN, GA (esp. if they considered it less vulnerable than NC), NE-02

[It's Time.]

I will say regarding GA: I think both campaigns knew it was coming down to the wire. That's why Obama, Harris, Biden and Trump all visited it within the final 72 hours of the campaign. The Trump campaign (Donald, Ivanka, etc) visited the state multiple times in the final two months as well.

Likewise and somewhat unrelated, similar dynamics played out in GA during the runoff (with Trump visiting one of the most GOP-friendly bastions of the state right before the election - just as he did in November).


If I had to guess, I'd imagine that NC was the biggest shock for both campaigns.

I think FL and OH were big shocks as well. I read somewhere that the Miami-Dade GOP was surprised at how good the results were.

[VAR]

Biden: FL, IA, NV, NC, OH
Trump: GA, MN, PA

Regarding PA: The Trump campaign triaged MI, and if my memory serves me right, they triaged WI as well. PA was the only Upper Midwest state they actually competed in (remember when FL & PA were regarded as the 'Big Two' instead of AZ & WI?), yet the state ended up to the left of WI. This just goes to show that the 'fundamentals' (e.g. demographics, past elections) are more predictive of the outcome than polling, which showed PA way to the right of MI and WI.

[Catalyst138]

Biden: FL, IA, NV, NC, OH
Trump: GA, MN, PA

Regarding PA: The Trump campaign triaged MI, and if my memory serves me right, they triaged WI as well. PA was the only Upper Midwest state they actually competed in (remember when FL & PA were regarded as the 'Big Two' instead of AZ & WI?), yet the state ended up to the left of WI. This just goes to show that the 'fundamentals' (e.g. demographics, past elections) are more predictive of the outcome than polling, which showed PA way to the right of MI and WI.

I think the thing about PA is that it’s more “rigid” than MI and WI; if the race was actually a Biden blowout I think WI would have voted left of it like in 2008. PA, kind of like FL, just has the tendency to be close, so the polling that showed a larger Biden victory wasn’t as wrong in PA as it was in WI/MI.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Also this is the amount of times Trump did a rally for the 2020 election in the following states:
Oklahoma 1
Virginia 1
Nebraska 1
New Hampshire 2
Georgia 2
Iowa 2
Nevada 3
Ohio 3
Minnesota 4
Arizona 6
Florida 7
Michigan 7
North Carolina 7
Wisconsin 7
Pennsylvania 14

[Motorcity]

Neither campaign expected Biden to win the popular vote by 8 points. And most pudits said that was a little high

I remember when Biden won the nomination he didn't want to invest in Florida viewing it as expensive and too hard to win. I also remember the last week of the campaign had a big push in Georgia, dumping money and sending Obama to Atlanta to rally with Ossoff and Warnock. And it was wise to treat WI and AZ as swing states unlike polls and invest heavily

Trump, it was wise to treat FL, NC, and TX as safe.

[Chips]

Trump: MN, GA

Biden: FL, NC