Did Biden/Trump campaigns known they won/lost on election night?
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  Did Biden/Trump campaigns known they won/lost on election night?
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Author Topic: Did Biden/Trump campaigns known they won/lost on election night?  (Read 1134 times)
win win
dxu8888
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« on: January 21, 2021, 12:03:22 AM »

While noobs like us thought Trump was ahead, did these campaigns know form their internal data that they had a >90% chance of winning or losing on election night?
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iamaganster123
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« Reply #1 on: January 21, 2021, 12:10:29 AM »

Biden came out and have a speech on election night that he was confident that he was gonna win so I assume they were confident by 12am to 3am or so. (Wisconsin dumped all their votes at 5am)

I have no idea about Trump but I think his Team was confident early on that he was going to win(seeing the strong margins in Florida, and his projected victories in Texas and the rest of the south and lower midwest(non Ga or NC) was going to get him reelected. I assume he was most confident from 7 30pm to 11pm most likely

I would assume by 2 or 3 in the morning, it seemed like that the time Biden was gonna pull through very barely but as the days went on, he won the election and later on the Senate(in January) making it a good year for the Democrats
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Yoda
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« Reply #2 on: January 21, 2021, 02:09:13 AM »

Biden came out and have a speech on election night that he was confident that he was gonna win so I assume they were confident by 12am to 3am or so. (Wisconsin dumped all their votes at 5am)

I have no idea about Trump but I think his Team was confident early on that he was going to win(seeing the strong margins in Florida, and his projected victories in Texas and the rest of the south and lower midwest(non Ga or NC) was going to get him reelected. I assume he was most confident from 7 30pm to 11pm most likely

I would assume by 2 or 3 in the morning, it seemed like that the time Biden was gonna pull through very barely but as the days went on, he won the election and later on the Senate(in January) making it a good year for the Democrats

I remember reading in some article that Biden's data team knew for certain the morning after
Election Day that he would win.
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #3 on: January 21, 2021, 06:02:43 AM »

In the early morning danish time, which was like 1 am US eastern time we did a podcast on the election results so far. At this point AZ had just been (prematurely) called by FOXNEWS and it looked VERY likely that Biden would overcome his disadvantage in at the very least WI and MI, and probably PA. So I would definitely say that at this point it looked highly likely that Biden was winning. They didn't need any special insider knowledge to deduce this. But it was certainly too close to comfort.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #4 on: January 21, 2021, 08:17:32 AM »

I'm pretty sure in the early morning after election night Biden gave a speech correctly predicting the entire electoral map, saying they would win MI/WI/PA/AZ and looked good in GA.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #5 on: January 21, 2021, 09:30:25 AM »

The media said don't spend too much time on PA, on Election night, wait for the vote, but both Mcconnell and Trump declared victory.

I thought Gross would win though
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #6 on: January 21, 2021, 10:50:33 AM »
« Edited: January 21, 2021, 10:55:50 AM by We Made PA Blue Again! »

Biden came out and have a speech on election night that he was confident that he was gonna win so I assume they were confident by 12am to 3am or so. (Wisconsin dumped all their votes at 5am)

I have no idea about Trump but I think his Team was confident early on that he was going to win(seeing the strong margins in Florida, and his projected victories in Texas and the rest of the south and lower midwest(non Ga or NC) was going to get him reelected. I assume he was most confident from 7 30pm to 11pm most likely

I would assume by 2 or 3 in the morning, it seemed like that the time Biden was gonna pull through very barely but as the days went on, he won the election and later on the Senate(in January) making it a good year for the Democrats

I remember reading in some article that Biden's data team knew for certain the morning after
Election Day that he would win.

I wonder how they were feeling on election night considering they weren't doing as well as public polling suggested.
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Motorcity
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« Reply #7 on: January 21, 2021, 11:01:39 AM »

Around 1am, Biden gave a speech with a lot of confidence and saying things look really good in WI, MI, AZ, and even GA

Turns out, the campaign had computer algothriums that was able to predict to the preciect level just by the early results

Apprently, the Trump campaign was confident on a win after the called Flroida. There was celebration in the White House but disappeared after AZ was called
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #8 on: January 21, 2021, 11:11:49 AM »

By the time Biden gave his speech (and even a little bit earlier than that) a lot of stuff was starting to look good for the Biden camp, so I'm pretty sure his team was confident that they'd won already on election night.

There was probably someone in the Trump campaign who realized they had lost on election night as well, but they sure didn't break it to the denier-in-chief since that would have ended them up in the Gulag rather quickly.
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redjohn
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« Reply #9 on: January 21, 2021, 12:29:08 PM »

Biden's campaign knew he'd won on election night. MN, NH, and CO being called quickly was a great sign he was going to win. It became inevitable when Fox called AZ and the math started to get really tricky for Trump. Biden only had to win a couple of the remaining states, but Trump was going to have to win pretty much every outstanding state.

Also, we knew on election night (3 AMish?) that Biden would win WI by ~20k votes. There was no way Trump was going to win MI while losing WI with the trends we were seeing.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #10 on: January 21, 2021, 03:24:05 PM »

I can almost guarantee you that by Nov. 2, the Trump campaign already had their "stolen election" talking points ready, because they knew that there would be a huge blue shift after the election, especially in Pennsylvania. I suspect they saw that there were very few paths to victory, and blanketing all forms of media with alarm over Biden votes "coming out of nowhere" was the best strategy to prime the public for a flurry of lawsuits.
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It's Perro Sanxe wot won it
Mimoha
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« Reply #11 on: January 21, 2021, 03:29:14 PM »

They did not. Only The Needle knew. Sadly the failing New York Times decided not to use it outside of FL, GA and NC.
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baris39
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« Reply #12 on: January 22, 2021, 04:44:43 AM »

I think when NE-02 was called for Biden, the Biden campaign became somewhat confident that they would have at least 270 votes (2016 Hillary states (232) + MI (16) + WI (10) + AZ (11) + NE02). Pennsylvania and Georgia were still 50/50.  
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Oregon Eagle Politics
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« Reply #13 on: January 22, 2021, 09:14:49 AM »

Biden came out and have a speech on election night that he was confident that he was gonna win so I assume they were confident by 12am to 3am or so. (Wisconsin dumped all their votes at 5am)

I have no idea about Trump but I think his Team was confident early on that he was going to win(seeing the strong margins in Florida, and his projected victories in Texas and the rest of the south and lower midwest(non Ga or NC) was going to get him reelected. I assume he was most confident from 7 30pm to 11pm most likely

I would assume by 2 or 3 in the morning, it seemed like that the time Biden was gonna pull through very barely but as the days went on, he won the election and later on the Senate(in January) making it a good year for the Democrats

I remember reading in some article that Biden's data team knew for certain the morning after
Election Day that he would win.

I wonder how they were feeling on election night considering they weren't doing as well as public polling suggested.
The Biden campaign expected a narrow victory, which is why they didn't go to Texas or Alaska and focused on Pennsylvania and Michigan and Wisconsin instead.
https://www.ntd.com/we-are-not-ahead-by-double-digits-biden-campaign-manager-reportedly-admits-polls-inflated_518308.html
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Oregon Eagle Politics
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« Reply #14 on: January 22, 2021, 09:17:07 AM »

I can almost guarantee you that by Nov. 2, the Trump campaign already had their "stolen election" talking points ready, because they knew that there would be a huge blue shift after the election, especially in Pennsylvania. I suspect they saw that there were very few paths to victory, and blanketing all forms of media with alarm over Biden votes "coming out of nowhere" was the best strategy to prime the public for a flurry of lawsuits.
Trump was only 43K votes away from winning legitimately, I'm pretty sure that they thought they were gonna win on Nov. 2, especially since they went to states that voted for Biden like Michigan or Minnesota, and thought they had Arizona and Georgia locked.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #15 on: January 22, 2021, 12:37:32 PM »

If one looked at the vote counts, Trump was going to win... big...based on leads.Democrats knew that the votes not yet counted were going their way.   
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The Mikado
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« Reply #16 on: January 22, 2021, 01:18:00 PM »

Depends what "night of" meant. It was obvious by Wednesday morning that Biden had won. I even posted the eventual map at about 8 AM Wednesday, with AZ the state I was least confident in.

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