3rd Party (Patriot Party) Trump vs GOP candidate vs Biden (or Harris)

[Admiral Stockdale]

All my logic points to a larger than Perot-like 3-way split vote - with Trump and the Patriot Party taking a low 20-something percent of the national popular vote (and maybe taking a few states like WY, MS, ND, etc.) - and a Dem victory.

Assuming all the hurdles are addressed (getting on the ballot in all 50 states, getting a couple of dollars donated to run, etc.).  Is there any change that he either (a) beats out the GOP or (b) wins? 

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

About 60% o Republicans are more attached to Trump than the GOP. That's not even including the non-Republicans who love Trump. For obvious reasons if Trump and a GOP candidate runs, Harris (or Biden) will win in a landslide.
Trump will undoubtedly win more votes and probably more states than the GOP candidate, by differing margins dependent on the GOP candidate.
If the GOP candidate is uncharismatic and anti-Trump like Larry Hogan, I could see Trump getting double the GOP's votes.

[Chips]

Dem win.

[Galeel]

1912 style Dem landslide

[Medal506]

Biden or Harris win in an electoral landslide but with a plurality of the popular vote.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Biden or Harris win in an electoral landslide but with a plurality of the popular vote.

Yeah, probably 48-49%, but over 413 EVs.

[Left Wing]

[progressive85]

Biden could get about 53%, Trump beats out the Republican candidate for 2nd place.  I have a hard time believing Democrats and Democratic-leaners are going to vote for Trump or the other guy, especially if Biden is relatively popular and the economy is doing good.

North Carolina probably flips.

[Suburban Republican]

In all likelihood, the GOP would just nominate Trump as well to avoid splitting the conservative vote. But in the case where the GOP nominated their own candidate, it would almost certainly be a democratic blowout.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

This would be my guess

[California8429]

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Wilson-Taft-Roosevelt

Democrat-Republican-Patriot

[pbrower2a]

That might give Senate Republicans good cause to remove and disqualify Donald Trump.

[Sir Mohamed]

✓ President Joe Biden (D-DE)/Vice President Kamala Harris (D-CA): 453 EVs.; 50.2%
Senator Rick Scott (R-FL)/Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley (R-SC): 40 EVs.; 26.2%
Former President Donald J. Trump (Patriot-FL)/Senator Josh Hawley (Patriot-MO): 45 EVs.; 22.7%

[AltWorlder]

Have Sanders finally run as DSA to be the Debs analogue!

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Do people really think there won't be strategic conservative voting? I assume most Republicans consolidate around one ticket or the other. Not that this wouldn't help Democrats, of course.

[RI]

Do people really think there won't be strategic conservative voting? I assume most Republicans consolidate around one ticket or the other. Not that this wouldn't help Democrats, of course.

I could see something like the 2010 Colorado Gubernatorial election occurring.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Do people really think there won't be strategic conservative voting? I assume most Republicans consolidate around one ticket or the other. Not that this wouldn't help Democrats, of course.

I could see something like the 2010 Colorado Gubernatorial election occurring.

I agree. But that yields a very different map than ones that have Harris winning South Dakota like some people in here have. Applying the vote shares of Colorado 2010 onto 2020 margins yields:

[Sirius_]

Do people really think there won't be strategic conservative voting? I assume most Republicans consolidate around one ticket or the other. Not that this wouldn't help Democrats, of course.

No. Trump cult is not smart enough for that.

[Sirius_]

Ima go with Biden v Trump v Pence, but the GOP nominee could be any number of candidates, and posting two maps based on who is favored by the right. 

Trump favored map:


Pence Favored Map:


These maps could absolutely be different in many ways, and I don't consider these "official predictions", just ideas.

[morgankingsley]

Why does every election season have people obsessed with 3rd parties

[Ferguson97]

If there was a legitimate third party bid by Trump, I think there's a chance that the GOP just co-nominates Trump just to avoid a Democratic tsunami. But if for whatever reason they double down, it's a Democratic landslide on-par with 1964.

[AltWorlder]

Here's why the entire system is rigged against Trump trying to do a Patriot Party, or the hypothetical People's Party, or any sort of Perot-style attempt to do a big independent run/create a third party overnight.

Really good and surprisingly non-Libertarian piece from Reason.com:

Here's How Donald Trump's 'Patriot Party' Could Become a Political Force by Matt Welch

I see four main obstacles, beginning with the man himself:

1. It takes a lot of thankless, expensive drudgery without an immediate, flashy payoff.

2. Americans are third-partiers in the streets, duopolists in the sheets.

3. Ballot access is a huge pain for third parties in non-presidential races.

4. Taking over an existing third party requires you to…take over an existing third party.

He goes into the four points in full and then considers all the possible parties that Trump could try to merge with. Really great detail.

[BaldEagle1991]

Well if that happens no more right wing Presidents anytime soon.

[pbrower2a]

✓ President Joe Biden (D-DE)/Vice President Kamala Harris (D-CA): 453 EVs.; 50.2%
Senator Rick Scott (R-FL)/Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley (R-SC): 40 EVs.; 26.2%
Former President Donald J. Trump (Patriot-FL)/Senator Josh Hawley (Patriot-MO): 45 EVs.; 22.7%

Close enough. That looks much like 1980 except that the equivalent of John Anderson actually gets some popular votes, and that Joe Biden gets to take the role of Ronald Reagan. Of course there is more interstate polarization between Left and Right.

If I am to make any change, it will be that Biden and Harris get practically all the black vote in Mississippi while the vote on the Right splits to allow Biden and Harris to win something like a  42-30-28 split. Other than that, we haven't had anything like a political landslide since Obama 2008; no Democrat has won 400 electoral votes since LBJ in 1964. We would be in unfamiliar territory, to put it tamely.