Regarding midwest trends, why do so many people forget W was very competitive in WI and PA?

[Matty]

He lost WI by less than a point in 2004 AND 2000

lost PA by a decent margin in 2000, but only lost by like 2 in 2004.


Obama, due to midwest home base and economic feelings at the time of his terms, uniquely over performed in the midwest relative to national sentiments and margins.

2016 and 2020 look to me like a reversion to the mean in a sense.

Obviously what is true is that demographic voting habits in the MW over the last 20 years have changed substantially.


Ben Shapiro of all people made this observation in 2017 if i recall.

trump's midwest "surge" really does appear to simply have been an artifact of reversion to the mean.

[Annatar]

Firstly you have to compare how states are voting relative to the nation, secondly, so many voters who could vote in 2004 are dead now, and so many new voters have entered the electorate via ageing into it and via naturalisation that the electorates in these states are totally different, you cannot just talk about reversion to the mean.

It is like saying Trump just did as well as Bush with Hispanics in many counties, the issue is so many new Hispanic voters have entered the electorate between 2004-2020 that you are dealing with a totally different voter base, you can't compare it to things 16 years ago.

[Roll Roons]

Firstly you have to compare how states are voting relative to the nation, secondly, so many voters who could vote in 2004 are dead now, and so many new voters have entered the electorate via ageing into it and via naturalisation that the electorates in these states are totally different, you cannot just talk about reversion to the mean.

It is like saying Trump just did as well as Bush with Hispanics in many counties, the issue is so many new Hispanic voters have entered the electorate between 2004-2020 that you are dealing with a totally different voter base, you can't compare it to things 16 years ago.

Even then, national popular vote isn't a great indicator. In the 2000s, Republicans kept it closer in California and got much bigger margins out of Texas compared to now, so they were much more competitive in the national PV.

[Hope For A New Era]

While it's a reversion to the mean in terms of margins and overall state partisanship, it should be noted that there was a huge difference in coalitions between the two elections:

 

[Matty]

I 100% understand that the county maps look very different 2016 v 2004

But my overall point is that the Midwest was billed (by political commentators from 2007-2016) as this blue brick wall despite the region being quite tight in 2000 and 2004

[Ferguson97]

For some reason people have this idea that Obama's performance was some sort of baseline when he was actually a once in a lifetime candidate who was uniquely suited to perform well in the Midwest.

Obama was the exception, not the rule.

[Alben Barkley]

For some reason people have this idea that Obama's performance was some sort of baseline when he was actually a once in a lifetime candidate who was uniquely suited to perform well in the Midwest.

Obama was the exception, not the rule.

Bill Clinton also did very well there. But yeah I guess he didn’t outperform there compared to his national performance to the same extent Obama did.

[If my soul was made of stone]

For some reason people have this idea that Obama's performance was some sort of baseline when he was actually a once in a lifetime candidate who was uniquely suited to perform well in the Midwest.

Obama was the exception, not the rule.

Bill Clinton also did very well there. But yeah I guess he didn’t outperform there compared to his national performance to the same extent Obama did.

Clinton won Wisconsin by about 4 points in 1992 and 10 points in 1996, with the traditionally conservative Fox Valley the main source of his gains. He won Pennsylvania by about 9 points each time, aided by convergent trends in the southwest and the Philadelphia suburbs. Come 2000, those gains had largely evaporated, and a lot of it didn't even come back under Obama.

[Alben Barkley]

People also seem to forget that Bush did better than Trump with Hispanics, including in the RGV and Miami-Dade. Another way you could argue Obama was the exception, not the rule, and this was a reversion to the mean.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

You do remember that CO was competetive in 2004 due to Edwards, but due to Edwards being a lightweight on national security, Kerry was unable to carry it, if Gephardt was Veep he would have carried CO, NV, NM to win the the election since Ohio had a SSM ban on it