Stock indices close at record highs under Biden presidency

[AGA]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-january-20-2021-231728187.html

I thought Biden was going to make the stock market crash?

[Chips]

Nice.

[Beet]

One thing I have to give Trump is that he broke the Republican mold and the stock market did well under him. It rose by as much as it did under Obama, only in half the time.

With 12 straight years now of a strongly rising stock market, its going to be hard for Biden to bring about a big rise.

[Bootes Void]

^im pretty sure that was proven false under the Clinton presidency not the trump presidency as to how stock markets do when democrats and republicans are there

[Never Made it to Graceland]

Yeah, well, hopefully he cares about the average American and not the stock market. Since the latter can do great while the former suffers.

[Alcibiades]

Yeah, well, hopefully he cares about the average American and not the stock market. Since the latter can do great while the former suffers.

Indeed. Trump bragging about how great the Dow was doing and his base eating it up as if this somehow meant the economy was working for them annoyed me to no end.

[President Johnson]

I'm waiting for these Biden Tweets about stock market records in all caps.

[dssg0915]

I mean its kinda expected the stock market almost never goes down in a presidents first term its terms 3 and 4 that actually matters

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

guys, I hate to break it you but the names you should be citing to explain this mysteriously long-lived bull stock market aren't Obama, Trump and Biden, but Bernanke, Yellen and Powell. Basically the markets have become quite addicted to the unique form of stimulus offered by central banks, and it has kept stonks rising and rising - and nobody quite knows what to make of it all, or what the consequence will be. All anybody knows is that any attempt by any administration to take down what was supposed to be a temporary buffer in response to the credit crunch has been fiercely opposed by the markets.

Like, I'm not going to predict that this is definitely going to collapse. There are plenty of chicken littles out there who have eagerly seen this stock bubble bursting every day for the past decade. All I will say is that increasingly many companies and organizations are seeing the stock market as a free money machine - a huge amount of start-ups making IPOs, stock buy-backs, over-valued companies and so on. Companies are taking on a huge amount of debt - and not even in the service of productive investment in themselves (private investment in most countries has remained stagnant), but to play the speculation game - financing mergers and acquisitions, as well as the ubiquitous stock buy-backs. And why shouldn't they? They want profit, after all; and there is far more profit in this murky finance stuff than in investing in automobiles or shoes or whatever. Why bother building a factory with your cheap debt, when you have such a lucrative alternative?

[jaichind]

While I agree overall the stock market does not have that much to do with the President notwithstanding Trump taking credit for any market surge under his administration there is one index which Trump uniquely improved just for being Trump: NFIB  small business optimism index



As soon as Trump was elected the index surged from 94.9 to 105.8 (in late 2016) a level only matched in the 2003-2005 period.  It then went on to rise to a record high of 108.8 in 2018.  As soon as Trump was defeated in 2020 the index slumped from 104.0 to 95.9.  One can most likely attribute rising economic activity for small businesses to Trump being Trump which is fairly unique in recent economic history.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Sill, going by the Donald Trump definition, Joe Biden is now the greatest president of our lifetimes.

[Beet]

While I agree overall the stock market does not have that much to do with the President notwithstanding Trump taking credit for any market surge under his administration there is one index which Trump uniquely improved just for being Trump: NFIB  small business optimism index

As soon as Trump was elected the index surged from 94.9 to 105.8 (in late 2016) a level only matched in the 2003-2005 period.  It then went on to rise to a record high of 108.8 in 2018.  As soon as Trump was defeated in 2020 the index slumped from 104.0 to 95.9.  One can most likely attribute rising economic activity for small businesses to Trump being Trump which is fairly unique in recent economic history.

I've always attributed this to small business owners, especially the ones included in this survey, being a conservative group. Remember, NFIB is the group with its name on the Supreme Court case that nearly overturned Obamacare. In 2010, all 25 of its Congressional members were Republicans and the survey is drawn only from NFIB members. Thus it does not represent small business owners as a whole. There's no other explanation for the persistently low ratings during the Obama recovery, as well as the sudden and dramatic election-based shifts that you noted.

[jaichind]

While I agree overall the stock market does not have that much to do with the President notwithstanding Trump taking credit for any market surge under his administration there is one index which Trump uniquely improved just for being Trump: NFIB  small business optimism index

As soon as Trump was elected the index surged from 94.9 to 105.8 (in late 2016) a level only matched in the 2003-2005 period.  It then went on to rise to a record high of 108.8 in 2018.  As soon as Trump was defeated in 2020 the index slumped from 104.0 to 95.9.  One can most likely attribute rising economic activity for small businesses to Trump being Trump which is fairly unique in recent economic history.

I've always attributed this to small business owners, especially the ones included in this survey, being a conservative group. Remember, NFIB is the group with its name on the Supreme Court case that nearly overturned Obamacare. In 2010, all 25 of its Congressional members were Republicans and the survey is drawn only from NFIB members. Thus it does not represent small business owners as a whole. There's no other explanation for the persistently low ratings during the Obama recovery, as well as the sudden and dramatic election-based shifts that you noted.

Except for if you look at the index in 1980-1981 and 2000-2001 you find that

a) Oct 1980 to Jan 1981 saw a drop from 97.0 to 95.9
b) Oct 2000 to Jan 2001 saw a drop from 99.3 to 96.4

To be fair in 1980 the USA was in a minor economic slowdown and by late 2000 the late 1990s boom was clearly petering out.  But if this group of small business owners are motivated by a Right wing victory in elections should have saw at least a small uptick in confidence in the elections of Reagan and Bush II from the Dems. 

It is a fact that small business owners lean Right.  But there is something unique about Trump and Trump being Trump that really motivated small business owners and most likely spur their economic activity.  Trump will go down in history for being able to motivate a segment of the economy for just being himself and not by any particular economic agenda.  Truly unique. 

[Beet]

While I agree overall the stock market does not have that much to do with the President notwithstanding Trump taking credit for any market surge under his administration there is one index which Trump uniquely improved just for being Trump: NFIB  small business optimism index

As soon as Trump was elected the index surged from 94.9 to 105.8 (in late 2016) a level only matched in the 2003-2005 period.  It then went on to rise to a record high of 108.8 in 2018.  As soon as Trump was defeated in 2020 the index slumped from 104.0 to 95.9.  One can most likely attribute rising economic activity for small businesses to Trump being Trump which is fairly unique in recent economic history.

I've always attributed this to small business owners, especially the ones included in this survey, being a conservative group. Remember, NFIB is the group with its name on the Supreme Court case that nearly overturned Obamacare. In 2010, all 25 of its Congressional members were Republicans and the survey is drawn only from NFIB members. Thus it does not represent small business owners as a whole. There's no other explanation for the persistently low ratings during the Obama recovery, as well as the sudden and dramatic election-based shifts that you noted.

Except for if you look at the index in 1980-1981 and 2000-2001 you find that

a) Oct 1980 to Jan 1981 saw a drop from 97.0 to 95.9
b) Oct 2000 to Jan 2001 saw a drop from 99.3 to 96.4

To be fair in 1980 the USA was in a minor economic slowdown and by late 2000 the late 1990s boom was clearly petering out.  But if this group of small business owners are motivated by a Right wing victory in elections should have saw at least a small uptick in confidence in the elections of Reagan and Bush II from the Dems. 

It is a fact that small business owners lean Right.  But there is something unique about Trump and Trump being Trump that really motivated small business owners and most likely spur their economic activity.  Trump will go down in history for being able to motivate a segment of the economy for just being himself and not by any particular economic agenda.  Truly unique. 

The 1980 and 2000 data isn't as stark because politics was far less polarized back then. You see a gradual then sharp increase in political polarization since then. This is not just restricted to this survey by the way; partisan perceptions of the economy, particularly among Republicans, have become increasingly tied to who is in office among the general public as well.

[jaichind]

The 1980 and 2000 data isn't as stark because politics was far less polarized back then. You see a gradual then sharp increase in political polarization since then. This is not just restricted to this survey by the way; partisan perceptions of the economy, particularly among Republicans, have become increasingly tied to who is in office among the general public as well.

I think that is fair and is a reasonable alternative explanation of the data.  I still think Trump had an outsized impact on the index but that also be interpreted as Trump is ultra-partisan and ultra-polarizing.