POLL: Did Trump's lies about voter fraud hurt the GOP long term?
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  POLL: Did Trump's lies about voter fraud hurt the GOP long term?
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Poll
Question: Did Trump's lies about voter fraud hurt the GOP long term?
#1
Yes
#2
No
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Author Topic: POLL: Did Trump's lies about voter fraud hurt the GOP long term?  (Read 2086 times)
MargieCat
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« on: January 20, 2021, 01:14:23 AM »

I asked this before the Georgia runoffs and wanted to get a newer take.

The consensus was no before.

I think the GOP will have trouble motivating certain blocks of their voters going forward.

The higher-propensity seniors and baby boomers will continue to vote as they always have.

But what about low-propensity Trumpists? The MAGA crowd?
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satsuma
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« Reply #1 on: January 25, 2021, 10:37:38 PM »

I could see a variety of reactions to this going forwards. There's a core of the "MAGA crowd" as you call them who will only be convinced this election was legit if their leaders start changing their tune about it.

Of course, the penalty for casting doubt on elections is swift: they've just convinced some of their people that voting doesn't work. They're still on your side, but Republicans need to be more consistent going forward that "your vote matters and it will be counted fairly."

There's probably a good number of people who are Republican voters as a lesser evil, but don't follow the general subculture around conservative politics. There will be an problem with retaining these. They will be turned off by lies in general and could be convinced that Democrats are the lesser evil instead.

Conspiracy theory does endear Republicans to the less intellectual people who are generally suspicious of power and may not vote very often. If the GOP instead decides to play the part of a persecuted underground faction, they will probably fail to win much in the near future, and they could sound increasingly like Alex Jones in the process.
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boltzy_
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« Reply #2 on: January 28, 2021, 11:43:42 AM »

Hurts them in the short term, but no one will remember or care in the long term.
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Chips
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« Reply #3 on: January 28, 2021, 09:00:07 PM »

We don't know for sure.
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Typhoon2000
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« Reply #4 on: February 25, 2021, 02:15:27 PM »

Yes, BIG TIME
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beesley
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« Reply #5 on: February 25, 2021, 02:47:07 PM »

To the extent that it motivated the insurrection and increased coverage on QAnon and the Trump base, yes. But as for the lies in and for themselves, no.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #6 on: February 25, 2021, 02:47:15 PM »

I doubt, because hurt would mean Republicans lose more elections in the future they would or could have won otherwise. I don't think that's going to happen. However, more importantly, his lies made the already toxic political climate worse and undermined trust and confidence in election integrity and institutions among a significant part of the populations. That's dangerous because each democratic system lives and dies from public confidence in its institutions.
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EastwoodS
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« Reply #7 on: February 26, 2021, 08:36:54 AM »

No.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #8 on: February 26, 2021, 02:34:28 PM »

Hurts them in the short term, but no one will remember or care in the long term.

Probably the right answer. The GOP will also attempt to pass a bunch of "voter integrity" stuff that the left will deem voter suppression but will alleviate some of their fears. This may especially be the case if Republicans gain governorships in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. I don't think mail-in ballots though are going away, even if there's less than in 2020, they'll still be a large part of the vote (and already were in many western states).
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TodayJunior
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« Reply #9 on: March 06, 2021, 01:26:15 PM »

Absolutely it did and will continue to as long as he’s the driving force in the GOP. This is why it will take multiple cycles for them to win at the national level again.
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EastwoodS
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« Reply #10 on: March 07, 2021, 07:05:24 AM »

Absolutely it did and will continue to as long as he’s the driving force in the GOP. This is why it will take multiple cycles for them to win at the national level again.
[/b]
Um... o..kay. This seems like some serious wishful thinking that goes against real time data that we’re already seeing and hinting at; whether it be special elections or voter registration in swing states. This sounds like something Joy Reid would say and she’s never predicted anything correctly.
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #11 on: March 07, 2021, 10:29:35 AM »

I think it probably will, especially since they targeted so many Republicans with their lies. It exacerbates conflicts within the party and encourages voters to be nihilistic towards politics in general. The Bernie crowd fueled a similar issue on the left. It's hard to imagine many of the diehard Trump fans ever trusting the Republican Party without him at the top of the ticket again. 

That said, I don't think this is going to destroy the party or prevent them from winning or anything, it'll just make things more difficult for them than they have to be.
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TodayJunior
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« Reply #12 on: March 07, 2021, 12:08:38 PM »

Absolutely it did and will continue to as long as he’s the driving force in the GOP. This is why it will take multiple cycles for them to win at the national level again.
Um... o..kay. This seems like some serious wishful thinking that goes against real time data that we’re already seeing and hinting at; whether it be special elections or voter registration in swing states. This sounds like something Joy Reid would say and she’s never predicted anything correctly.
Trump and the MAGA base alone is not enough to win a national election. Their ceiling is 47%. I just don’t understand why the GOP wants to double down on someone who lost by 7 million votes and lost two red states (Arizona and Georgia), and not realize he is toxic to 51% of the electorate. The gop needs to win back people like me: white millennial centrists with a college degree. 
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #13 on: March 07, 2021, 12:19:40 PM »

Absolutely it did and will continue to as long as he’s the driving force in the GOP. This is why it will take multiple cycles for them to win at the national level again.
Um... o..kay. This seems like some serious wishful thinking that goes against real time data that we’re already seeing and hinting at; whether it be special elections or voter registration in swing states. This sounds like something Joy Reid would say and she’s never predicted anything correctly.
Trump and the MAGA base alone is not enough to win a national election. Their ceiling is 47%. I just don’t understand why the GOP wants to double down on someone who lost by 7 million votes and lost two red states (Arizona and Georgia), and not realize he is toxic to 51% of the electorate. The gop needs to win back people like me: white millennial centrists with a college degree. 

It doesn't, because the popular vote is not the electoral college. Non-college educated white people comprise the largest voting bloc; Hispanic voters represent the fastest-growing one of considerable size. The first group swung against, but trended towards, Trump; along with black voters, the second trended and swung towards Trump.

In theory, the GOP just needs to slow down the rate at which it loses college-educated white voters and keep the pro-GOP trends going. There are a lot of question marks to do with lockdown-induced turnout patterns, etc., but I don't think winning back white, millennial, college-educated centrists should be their top priority.
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TodayJunior
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« Reply #14 on: March 07, 2021, 04:39:05 PM »

Absolutely it did and will continue to as long as he’s the driving force in the GOP. This is why it will take multiple cycles for them to win at the national level again.
Um... o..kay. This seems like some serious wishful thinking that goes against real time data that we’re already seeing and hinting at; whether it be special elections or voter registration in swing states. This sounds like something Joy Reid would say and she’s never predicted anything correctly.
Trump and the MAGA base alone is not enough to win a national election. Their ceiling is 47%. I just don’t understand why the GOP wants to double down on someone who lost by 7 million votes and lost two red states (Arizona and Georgia), and not realize he is toxic to 51% of the electorate. The gop needs to win back people like me: white millennial centrists with a college degree.

It doesn't, because the popular vote is not the electoral college. Non-college educated white people comprise the largest voting bloc; Hispanic voters represent the fastest-growing one of considerable size. The first group swung against, but trended towards, Trump; along with black voters, the second trended and swung towards Trump.

In theory, the GOP just needs to slow down the rate at which it loses college-educated white voters and keep the pro-GOP trends going. There are a lot of question marks to do with lockdown-induced turnout patterns, etc., but I don't think winning back white, millennial, college-educated centrists should be their top priority.

Then they can say goodbye to the suburbs. It’s not hard to tweak and tailor the message broadly.  
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Pink Panther
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« Reply #15 on: March 08, 2021, 02:06:50 AM »

We need more time for a conclusive answer to this post, but personally it depends on how much and how long the voter fraud claims are discussed by the GOP.
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R.P. McM
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« Reply #16 on: March 18, 2021, 03:56:18 AM »

Hurts them in the short term, but no one will remember or care in the long term.

Probably the right answer. The GOP will also attempt to pass a bunch of "voter integrity" stuff that the left will deem voter suppression but will alleviate some of their fears. This may especially be the case if Republicans gain governorships in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. I don't think mail-in ballots though are going away, even if there's less than in 2020, they'll still be a large part of the vote (and already were in many western states).

I'm not sure how passing voter suppression laws will alleviate fears rooted in baseless conspiracies and racial animosity. And much more the latter than the former, I suspect. Obviously, given Trump's post-election conduct, it's impossible to believe that the bulk of the GOP is genuinely concerned about election integrity.
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Non Swing Voter
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« Reply #17 on: March 28, 2021, 05:45:50 PM »

Absolutely it did and will continue to as long as he’s the driving force in the GOP. This is why it will take multiple cycles for them to win at the national level again.
[/b]
Um... o..kay. This seems like some serious wishful thinking that goes against real time data that we’re already seeing and hinting at; whether it be special elections or voter registration in swing states. This sounds like something Joy Reid would say and she’s never predicted anything correctly.

You make these sweeping statements that run contrary to the facts everyone is aware of (like the GOP continually losing the popular vote and the problem getting worse) without citing a source or even making an argument.  Try harder.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #18 on: March 28, 2021, 06:32:16 PM »

Depends on what exactly qualifies as "hurting them long-term." The lies costing them the GA runoffs & thus the Senate for up to 2 years would seemingly qualify as merely being a short-term loss on the face of it, but what that also lost them by extension was their de-facto veto over - among other items - nominations, particularly judgeships. For instance, blocking Merrick Garland was an undeniable long-term win for the GOP, but they're no longer capable of exercising another such block so long as the Democrats are in the majority. That is, there's nothing whatsoever that they can do about Biden nominating & the Senate confirming a bunch of 40-year-old liberals to all of the vacant seats on the bench, whereas they would've been able to just block all of them had Trump not engaged in the lies & cost them the runoffs & the Senate as a result. So the question is: does not being able to block a bunch of liberals from the bench qualify as a long-term loss, just as blocking Garland undeniably qualified as a long-term win?
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MarkD
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« Reply #19 on: March 29, 2021, 08:22:01 AM »

Depends on what exactly qualifies as "hurting them long-term." The lies costing them the GA runoffs & thus the Senate for up to 2 years would seemingly qualify as merely being a short-term loss on the face of it, but what that also lost them by extension was their de-facto veto over - among other items - nominations, particularly judgeships. For instance, blocking Merrick Garland was an undeniable long-term win for the GOP, but they're no longer capable of exercising another such block so long as the Democrats are in the majority. That is, there's nothing whatsoever that they can do about Biden nominating & the Senate confirming a bunch of 40-year-old liberals to all of the vacant seats on the bench, whereas they would've been able to just block all of them had Trump not engaged in the lies & cost them the runoffs & the Senate as a result. So the question is: does not being able to block a bunch of liberals from the bench qualify as a long-term loss, just as blocking Garland undeniably qualified as a long-term win?

Appointing a bunch of judges primarily because of their ideology sucks regardless of which party does it. I really, really hope that Biden's bipartisan commission studying ways to reform the judiciary comes up with suggestions that bury your way of thinking permanently.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #20 on: April 21, 2021, 03:00:35 PM »

At least until the stench of Donald Trump is no longer upon the GOP.

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