2012/2016: Arnold Schwarzenegger runs! (No "natural-born citizen" clause)

[Alben Barkley]

Let's say either the Constitution never included a "natural-born citizen" clause in the first place, or it was repealed in an amendment. Either way, Arnold Schwarzenegger is a naturalized citizen who is eligible to run for president. He's still elected Governor of California in 2003 and 2006.

Scenario 1: 2012

I'm thinking 2012 was probably his best chance to run had he been eligible. 2008 might have been better for him (he was more popular at the time) were it not for the fact that any Republican was probably screwed that year.

However, Arnold has a few hurdles for a 2012 run even if he's Constitutionally eligible:

1. He didn't end his second term as governor on the most positive note, getting pretty poor approval ratings towards the end.

2. The scandal involving his illegitimate child with a maid had already been uncovered. Believe it or not, that sort of thing actually used to matter.

3. He was still very moderate for a Republican so either he'd have to find a way to win the GOP primary anyway, perhaps by appealing to his star power and potential electability, or he'd have to shift right to have a chance of winning the primary.

Nonetheless, let's say he pulls it off. How does he do against Obama in 2012? Can he flip states like Florida, Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, Pennsylvania? Does he do better than Romney even if he loses, or worse?

Scenario 2: 2016

Let's say Arnold waits until 2016 instead. Now he's running against another celebrity, Donald Trump, for the Republican nomination. Despite that, the two could not be much more different in terms of temperament, ideology, and values. I'm thinking Arnold could possibly have coalesced the moderate/mainstream elements of the GOP wing fairly quickly (easy to see Kaisch in particular dropping out early and endorsing him), so you might end up with a three-way primary between him, Cruz, and Trump. How does that turn out?

And if Arnold wins it, does he beat Hillary? If so, does he do it easily, perhaps even winning the popular vote? Or is it even more of a nailbiter than the actual 2016?