Maybe I've just been worn down by years of Trump, but I think the Democrats here are a little optimistic of how this would turn out for them. This would be my guess for a generic 2028 election:
I don’t mean to be rude but this is actually delusional.
Why? My point is just that creating a third party could split the "I support democracy" vote just as much as the "right of center" vote, and if recent elections tell us anything, it's that the "I support democracy" vote is just barely enough to win an election and can't afford any splitters.
Well that "point" is delusional, frankly. Even if you look at it that cynically, there are very few people who voted Democratic in 2016 and/or 2020 who would be in the "I hate democracy" camp. Far more Republicans who weren't crazy about Trump but voted for him anyway to toe the party line and/or because they hate Democrats, especially in 2016. That means that in basically every state which had at least 40% or so of the vote go to the Democratic candidate, you can count on almost all of that to stay with the Democrat, while the Republican vote is split between those who are more loyal to the party and those who are more loyal to Trump personally. Thus you get the 1912-esque maps we've been posting.
Let's take a state like Michigan, for example, which Biden won by over 3 points. You're telling me you think that a state in which the MAJORITY just voted for Biden fairly comfortably (as much as Florida did for Trump, for reference) would suddenly vote for Trump Jr., who would have to win all but 100% of the Republican support his father did despite significant competition from the official Republican nominee, in addition to significant crossover support from Biden voters for unfathomable reasons? What's more likely, that or that most of the Biden voters stick with the Dems and that, even if Trump does better than whoever the R nominee is, he's dragged down enough by a split base that the Dem still wins pretty easily?
It's simple mathematics, really.
Also: Why do you seem to think that the favorable trends for Republicans in the rust belt would accelerate dramatically in this scenario, but favorable trends for Democrats in the sun belt would stagnate or even reverse?
I'm sorry but this doomer nonsense is just too much for right now. Literally on the eve of evicting Trump from the White House, and we STILL have Democrats thinking he's some unstoppable political god. It's just absurd now.
