Donald Trump wants to start a third party

[Crumpets]

Not the "America First" Party?

If it takes over the entire right wing, so be it. Either we get a legitimately moderate Republican Party or the remaining elected moderate Republicans will have to explicitly choose between Democrats and enabling Trump without getting to play it both ways.

[Crumpets]

Maybe I've just been worn down by years of Trump, but I think the Democrats here are a little optimistic of how this would turn out for them. Here's one scenario for 2028 where the GOP is reduced to a Perot-style party after the new right-wing party becomes the main right-of-center party.

EDIT: I changed the names of the candidates and the last line of my post because I think they distracted from the point I'm trying to make.

[Crumpets]

Maybe I've just been worn down by years of Trump, but I think the Democrats here are a little optimistic of how this would turn out for them. This would be my guess for a generic 2028 election:

I don’t mean to be rude but this is actually delusional.

Why? My point is just that creating a third party could split the "I support democracy" vote just as much as the "right of center" vote, and if recent elections tell us anything, it's that the "I support democracy" vote is just barely enough to win an election and can't afford any splitters.

[Crumpets]

Maybe I've just been worn down by years of Trump, but I think the Democrats here are a little optimistic of how this would turn out for them. This would be my guess for a generic 2028 election:

I don’t mean to be rude but this is actually delusional.

Why? My point is just that creating a third party could split the "I support democracy" vote just as much as the "right of center" vote, and if recent elections tell us anything, it's that the "I support democracy" vote is just barely enough to win an election and can't afford any splitters.

Well that "point" is delusional, frankly. Even if you look at it that cynically, there are very few people who voted Democratic in 2016 and/or 2020 who would be in the "I hate democracy" camp. Far more Republicans who weren't crazy about Trump but voted for him anyway to toe the party line and/or because they hate Democrats, especially in 2016. That means that in basically every state which had at least 40% or so of the vote go to the Democratic candidate, you can count on almost all of that to stay with the Democrat, while the Republican vote is split between those who are more loyal to the party and those who are more loyal to Trump personally. Thus you get the 1912-esque maps we've been posting.

Okay, maybe the map is misleading from what I was trying to say. So I'll put it another way:

The vast majority of the Republican Party today is the Trump Party. There's a very good chance as lots of people, including myself, have pointed out so far in this thread, that it's just a blip to siphon right-wing voters from the Republicans and Democrats get some landslide elections until they figure things out. There's also the chance that the Patriot Party just straight up becomes the de facto national right-of-center party and the Republicans are reduced to a 1992 Reform-style party or maybe even a 2016 McMullin-style regional party and elections continue to be competitive between the Democrats and a Trump-style right wing party with moderate Republicans as the kingmaker. It's not doomerism because I don't see it as a catastrophic change of events, just status quo with different names.

[Crumpets]

Maybe I've just been worn down by years of Trump, but I think the Democrats here are a little optimistic of how this would turn out for them. This would be my guess for a generic 2028 election:

I don’t mean to be rude but this is actually delusional.

Why? My point is just that creating a third party could split the "I support democracy" vote just as much as the "right of center" vote, and if recent elections tell us anything, it's that the "I support democracy" vote is just barely enough to win an election and can't afford any splitters.

Well that "point" is delusional, frankly. Even if you look at it that cynically, there are very few people who voted Democratic in 2016 and/or 2020 who would be in the "I hate democracy" camp. Far more Republicans who weren't crazy about Trump but voted for him anyway to toe the party line and/or because they hate Democrats, especially in 2016. That means that in basically every state which had at least 40% or so of the vote go to the Democratic candidate, you can count on almost all of that to stay with the Democrat, while the Republican vote is split between those who are more loyal to the party and those who are more loyal to Trump personally. Thus you get the 1912-esque maps we've been posting.

Okay, maybe the map is misleading from what I was trying to say. So I'll put it another way:

The vast majority of the Republican Party today is the Trump Party. There's a very good chance as lots of people, including myself, have pointed out so far in this thread, that it's just a blip to siphon right-wing voters from the Republicans and Democrats get some landslide elections until they figure things out. There's also the chance that the Patriot Party just straight up becomes the de facto national right-of-center party and the Republicans are reduced to a 1992 Reform-style party or maybe even a 2016 McMullin-style regional party and elections continue to be competitive between the Democrats and a Trump-style right wing party with moderate Republicans as the kingmaker. It's not doomerism because I don't see it as a catastrophic change of events, just status quo with different names.

Even after clarifying this, if you think that Trump Jr would win Pennsylvania in a three-way race between him, Kamala, and Sasse? This is pure nonsense and you know it.

The specific candidates aren't important and Don Jr was a bad choice on my part. I've edited my original post to address this. Michigan and Pennsylvania are swing states and whoever the right-of-center candidate is will have a shot there if they can consolidate support behind them. Having McMullin and Johnson on the ballot in 2016 didn't doom a father-right candidate in those states in 2016.

Am I missing something here? I was not expecting people to get so up-in-arms about this and I'm really not trying to troll or be a doomer, especially about an election eight years away involving a party that probably will never see the light of day.