Donald Trump wants to start a third party

[GoTfan]

Not even us on the left are that unthinking

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Please please please please. I want 2024 to look like 1912.

[#CriminalizeSobriety]

You know they say that all people are created equal, but you look at me and you look at Mike Pence and you can see that statement is not true! See, normally if you go one on one with another politician, you got a 50/50 chance of winning. But I'm an electoral freak and I'm not normal! So you got a 25%, AT BEST, at beat me. Then you add Donald Trump to the mix, your chances of winning drastic go down! See the 3 way, at Election Day, you got a 33 1/3 chance of winning, but I, I got a 66 and 2/3 chance of winning, because Donald Trump KNOWS he can't beat me and he's not even gonna try!

So Mike Pence, you take your 33 1/3 chance, minus my 25% chance and you got an 8 1/3 chance of winning on Election Day. But then you take my 75% chance of winning, if we was to go one on one, and then add 66 2/3 per cents, I got 141 2/3 chance of winning on Election Day. See Mike, the numbers don't lie, and they spell disaster for you on Election Day.

[Sirius_]

Maybe I've just been worn down by years of Trump, but I think the Democrats here are a little optimistic of how this would turn out for them. This would be my guess for a generic 2028 election:

I don’t mean to be rude but this is actually delusional.

Why? My point is just that creating a third party could split the "I support democracy" vote just as much as the "right of center" vote, and if recent elections tell us anything, it's that the "I support democracy" vote is just barely enough to win an election and can't afford any splitters.

If the republican gets even just 5% in the swing states then the Trumpist is doomed.

[GALeftist]

Inshallah

[Duro]

The same thread was discussed in 2016 https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=239176.0

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

I'm calling it now: the party symbol will be an eagle carrying a US flag in one talon, a huge gold crucifix in the other, and a semi-automatic in a third talon.

Nah. The eagle will be wearing the flag like a cape.

[beaver2.0]

It won't happen but even if it did I doubt most of the behind the scenes people that allow a party to actually exist would jump ship.

[politics_king]

We'll see what Trump does in the next 100 days. He's probably sulking honestly.

[Storebought]

A new right-wing populist party will last all of eight to twelve months before the GOP co-opts its entire platform and its racist and demagogic "tone" as its own -- see Tea Party.

[walleye26]

If a party like this actually was around and was active with Trumps endorsements in 2022, the midterms would be a bloodbath for Republicans. Even if these guys got an average of like 7% of the vote in Senate races, that automatically flips Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and probably a few GOP house races.

[Hermit For Peace]

He can start a new party and run it from prison.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

So Harris gets to be Woodrow Wilson? I'm okay with that.

[Roll Roons]

So Harris gets to be Woodrow Wilson? I'm okay with that.

In no way is Trump comparable to Teddy. Even Pence is a lot dumber than Taft.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Please God, you know I don't ask you for much.

Totally unrealistic. No way Yang wins the Democratic nomination.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Maybe I've just been worn down by years of Trump, but I think the Democrats here are a little optimistic of how this would turn out for them. Here's one scenario for 2028 where the GOP is reduced to a Perot-style party after the new right-wing party becomes the main right-of-center party.

EDIT: I changed the names of the candidates and the last line of my post because I think they distracted from the point I'm trying to make.

Even if the GOP candidate manages to get 8-9%, the Trumpist has no shot.

[MasterJedi]

Please do it, we can totally sweep in 2022 and 2024and get that radical change needed.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I did some playing around with the numbers, starting from the 2020 vote and with a couple of simplifying assumptions:

1. The 2024 Trumpist candidate will pull X% of the 2020 Trump voters in each state.  The remaining Trump voters stay with the mainstream Republican candidate.

2. But Y% of the 2020 Biden voters were soft Republicans or independents who were turned off by Trump, so they go back to the mainstream Republican. 

Combining these, we get:

2024 R vote in a state = (2020 R vote)(1-X) + (2020 D vote)(Y)
2024 D vote in a state = (2020 D vote)(1-Y)
2024 T vote in a state = (2020 R vote)(X)

First I guessed values of 25% for X (R->Trumpist switchers) and 10% for Y (D->R switchers).  This gives the Democrat a 5.9% PV margin but flips only NC, by a margin of 1.4%.  The next closest D wins are AZ and GA at 2.7%.  Florida just misses flipping, with the R winning it by 13K votes (0.1%); Texas goes to the R by 1.9%.

If we drop the percentage of D->R switchers from 10% to 5%, the Democrat romps to an 11.0% PV victory, flipping NC, FL, TX, OH (0.8% margin), and IA (0.6%); possibly ME-02 as well, but I didn’t check it (RCV would undoubtedly come into play).  The closest R win is Alaska at 1.1%.

If we leave D->R at 10% but increase the number of R->Trumpist defectors to 30%, the Democrat wins the PV by 8.2%, flipping NC, FL, and TX (0.7%).  The closest R win is Ohio at 1.1%.