Donald Trump wants to start a third party
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  Donald Trump wants to start a third party
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Author Topic: Donald Trump wants to start a third party  (Read 4987 times)
NeederNodder
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« Reply #25 on: January 19, 2021, 10:03:26 PM »

In 2024-28, If Trump is still in decent health

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Crane
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« Reply #26 on: January 19, 2021, 10:05:21 PM »

no don't start a third party and destroy the GOP, you're so sexy aha
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #27 on: January 19, 2021, 10:08:37 PM »

In 2024-28, If Trump is still in decent health



Indiana, Missouri, Mississippi, Montana, Alaska... But not Texas or Florida???
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #28 on: January 19, 2021, 10:17:31 PM »

Trump has legal issues to worry about
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« Reply #29 on: January 19, 2021, 10:30:13 PM »

DESTROY THE GOP! DESTROY THE GOP!
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #30 on: January 19, 2021, 10:40:14 PM »

tfw Kamala was the one to get the 413 map all along
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Nyvin
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« Reply #31 on: January 19, 2021, 10:42:17 PM »

Go for it man!
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Hermit For Peace
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« Reply #32 on: January 19, 2021, 10:53:38 PM »


This. The fun is over for this man who shall no longer be named in polite company. He has a boatload of lawsuits being thrown at him and it's time he paid the piper.
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Hope For A New Era
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« Reply #33 on: January 19, 2021, 11:01:53 PM »

I think this is the map by the way, give or take Kansas and Nebraska/NE-01. Maybe Indiana if it’s Pence:



The beauty of this is it’s a win/win: Either this scares Republicans into definitely convicting him and barring him from holding office, or that happens.

Given what happened the last time there was a strong third-party candidate, I'd make Kansas D.
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Horsemask
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« Reply #34 on: January 19, 2021, 11:12:33 PM »

Oh no, please don't own us, I don't think I can handle it.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #35 on: January 20, 2021, 12:25:24 AM »
« Edited: January 20, 2021, 01:46:53 AM by Crumpets »

Maybe I've just been worn down by years of Trump, but I think the Democrats here are a little optimistic of how this would turn out for them. Here's one scenario for 2028 where the GOP is reduced to a Perot-style party after the new right-wing party becomes the main right-of-center party.

EDIT: I changed the names of the candidates and the last line of my post because I think they distracted from the point I'm trying to make.



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Ferguson97
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« Reply #36 on: January 20, 2021, 12:39:35 AM »

Maybe I've just been worn down by years of Trump, but I think the Democrats here are a little optimistic of how this would turn out for them. This would be my guess for a generic 2028 election:




I don’t mean to be rude but this is actually delusional.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #37 on: January 20, 2021, 12:43:54 AM »

Maybe I've just been worn down by years of Trump, but I think the Democrats here are a little optimistic of how this would turn out for them. This would be my guess for a generic 2028 election:




I don’t mean to be rude but this is actually delusional.

Why? My point is just that creating a third party could split the "I support democracy" vote just as much as the "right of center" vote, and if recent elections tell us anything, it's that the "I support democracy" vote is just barely enough to win an election and can't afford any splitters.
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musicblind
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« Reply #38 on: January 20, 2021, 12:48:43 AM »

This won't happen, or at least, I doubt it.

But, if he does it, I'm not sure it will be as big a boon for the Democratic Party as some think.

I do think it's something he should do. ReTrumplicans are not classical Republicans in any sense of the word, and Republican values have been leaving the Republican party for decades... Trump might as well finish the job.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #39 on: January 20, 2021, 01:02:02 AM »
« Edited: January 20, 2021, 01:06:47 AM by Alben Barkley »

Maybe I've just been worn down by years of Trump, but I think the Democrats here are a little optimistic of how this would turn out for them. This would be my guess for a generic 2028 election:




You realize he just lost and his opponent is being sworn in tomorrow, right?

You realize his votes would almost entirely come from otherwise Republican voters, right? And that a very similar situation occurred in 1912, allowing a Democrat to win a landslide in an otherwise Republican-dominant era?

There's typical doomerism and then there's... whatever the hell this is.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #40 on: January 20, 2021, 01:05:42 AM »
« Edited: January 20, 2021, 01:18:12 AM by Alben Barkley »

Maybe I've just been worn down by years of Trump, but I think the Democrats here are a little optimistic of how this would turn out for them. This would be my guess for a generic 2028 election:




I don’t mean to be rude but this is actually delusional.

Why? My point is just that creating a third party could split the "I support democracy" vote just as much as the "right of center" vote, and if recent elections tell us anything, it's that the "I support democracy" vote is just barely enough to win an election and can't afford any splitters.

Well that "point" is delusional, frankly. Even if you look at it that cynically, there are very few people who voted Democratic in 2016 and/or 2020 who would be in the "I hate democracy" camp. Far more Republicans who weren't crazy about Trump but voted for him anyway to toe the party line and/or because they hate Democrats, especially in 2016. That means that in basically every state which had at least 40% or so of the vote go to the Democratic candidate, you can count on almost all of that to stay with the Democrat, while the Republican vote is split between those who are more loyal to the party and those who are more loyal to Trump personally. Thus you get the 1912-esque maps we've been posting.

Let's take a state like Michigan, for example, which Biden won by over 3 points. You're telling me you think that a state in which the MAJORITY just voted for Biden fairly comfortably (as much as Florida did for Trump, for reference) would suddenly vote for Trump Jr., who would have to win all but 100% of the Republican support his father did despite significant competition from the official Republican nominee, in addition to significant crossover support from Biden voters for unfathomable reasons? What's more likely, that or that most of the Biden voters stick with the Dems and that, even if Trump does better than whoever the R nominee is, he's dragged down enough by a split base that the Dem still wins pretty easily?

It's simple mathematics, really.

Also: Why do you seem to think that the favorable trends for Republicans in the rust belt would accelerate dramatically in this scenario, but favorable trends for Democrats in the sun belt would stagnate or even reverse?

I'm sorry but this doomer nonsense is just too much for right now. Literally on the eve of evicting Trump from the White House, and we STILL have Democrats thinking he's some unstoppable political god. It's just absurd now.
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Left Wing
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« Reply #41 on: January 20, 2021, 01:09:26 AM »

I think this is the map by the way, give or take Kansas and Nebraska/NE-01. Maybe Indiana if it’s Pence:



The beauty of this is it’s a win/win: Either this scares Republicans into definitely convicting him and barring him from holding office, or that happens.
Tbh Indiana is even less likely to go GOP with Pence. It would probably vote D by double digits either way though.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #42 on: January 20, 2021, 01:17:00 AM »

Maybe I've just been worn down by years of Trump, but I think the Democrats here are a little optimistic of how this would turn out for them. This would be my guess for a generic 2028 election:




I don’t mean to be rude but this is actually delusional.

Why? My point is just that creating a third party could split the "I support democracy" vote just as much as the "right of center" vote, and if recent elections tell us anything, it's that the "I support democracy" vote is just barely enough to win an election and can't afford any splitters.

Well that "point" is delusional, frankly. Even if you look at it that cynically, there are very few people who voted Democratic in 2016 and/or 2020 who would be in the "I hate democracy" camp. Far more Republicans who weren't crazy about Trump but voted for him anyway to toe the party line and/or because they hate Democrats, especially in 2016. That means that in basically every state which had at least 40% or so of the vote go to the Democratic candidate, you can count on almost all of that to stay with the Democrat, while the Republican vote is split between those who are more loyal to the party and those who are more loyal to Trump personally. Thus you get the 1912-esque maps we've been posting.

Okay, maybe the map is misleading from what I was trying to say. So I'll put it another way:

The vast majority of the Republican Party today is the Trump Party. There's a very good chance as lots of people, including myself, have pointed out so far in this thread, that it's just a blip to siphon right-wing voters from the Republicans and Democrats get some landslide elections until they figure things out. There's also the chance that the Patriot Party just straight up becomes the de facto national right-of-center party and the Republicans are reduced to a 1992 Reform-style party or maybe even a 2016 McMullin-style regional party and elections continue to be competitive between the Democrats and a Trump-style right wing party with moderate Republicans as the kingmaker. It's not doomerism because I don't see it as a catastrophic change of events, just status quo with different names.
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Dabeav
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« Reply #43 on: January 20, 2021, 01:20:20 AM »

Let Trump start his own party and The Squad or whatever progressives make their own.  Time to bring more choices into elections that have a serious chance.
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Buffalo Mayor Young Kim
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« Reply #44 on: January 20, 2021, 01:27:59 AM »

Maybe I've just been worn down by years of Trump, but I think the Democrats here are a little optimistic of how this would turn out for them. This would be my guess for a generic 2028 election:




Jesus are we still on the Donald Trump is magic train?

He’s not winning Michigan etc. on a third part ticket. That’s just dumb.
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #45 on: January 20, 2021, 01:34:30 AM »

He's too lazy to start a new party for real.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #46 on: January 20, 2021, 01:37:09 AM »

Maybe I've just been worn down by years of Trump, but I think the Democrats here are a little optimistic of how this would turn out for them. This would be my guess for a generic 2028 election:




I don’t mean to be rude but this is actually delusional.

Why? My point is just that creating a third party could split the "I support democracy" vote just as much as the "right of center" vote, and if recent elections tell us anything, it's that the "I support democracy" vote is just barely enough to win an election and can't afford any splitters.

Well that "point" is delusional, frankly. Even if you look at it that cynically, there are very few people who voted Democratic in 2016 and/or 2020 who would be in the "I hate democracy" camp. Far more Republicans who weren't crazy about Trump but voted for him anyway to toe the party line and/or because they hate Democrats, especially in 2016. That means that in basically every state which had at least 40% or so of the vote go to the Democratic candidate, you can count on almost all of that to stay with the Democrat, while the Republican vote is split between those who are more loyal to the party and those who are more loyal to Trump personally. Thus you get the 1912-esque maps we've been posting.

Okay, maybe the map is misleading from what I was trying to say. So I'll put it another way:

The vast majority of the Republican Party today is the Trump Party. There's a very good chance as lots of people, including myself, have pointed out so far in this thread, that it's just a blip to siphon right-wing voters from the Republicans and Democrats get some landslide elections until they figure things out. There's also the chance that the Patriot Party just straight up becomes the de facto national right-of-center party and the Republicans are reduced to a 1992 Reform-style party or maybe even a 2016 McMullin-style regional party and elections continue to be competitive between the Democrats and a Trump-style right wing party with moderate Republicans as the kingmaker. It's not doomerism because I don't see it as a catastrophic change of events, just status quo with different names.

Even after clarifying this, if you think that Trump Jr would win Pennsylvania in a three-way race between him, Kamala, and Sasse? This is pure nonsense and you know it.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #47 on: January 20, 2021, 01:58:16 AM »

Maybe I've just been worn down by years of Trump, but I think the Democrats here are a little optimistic of how this would turn out for them. This would be my guess for a generic 2028 election:




I don’t mean to be rude but this is actually delusional.

Why? My point is just that creating a third party could split the "I support democracy" vote just as much as the "right of center" vote, and if recent elections tell us anything, it's that the "I support democracy" vote is just barely enough to win an election and can't afford any splitters.

Well that "point" is delusional, frankly. Even if you look at it that cynically, there are very few people who voted Democratic in 2016 and/or 2020 who would be in the "I hate democracy" camp. Far more Republicans who weren't crazy about Trump but voted for him anyway to toe the party line and/or because they hate Democrats, especially in 2016. That means that in basically every state which had at least 40% or so of the vote go to the Democratic candidate, you can count on almost all of that to stay with the Democrat, while the Republican vote is split between those who are more loyal to the party and those who are more loyal to Trump personally. Thus you get the 1912-esque maps we've been posting.

Okay, maybe the map is misleading from what I was trying to say. So I'll put it another way:

The vast majority of the Republican Party today is the Trump Party. There's a very good chance as lots of people, including myself, have pointed out so far in this thread, that it's just a blip to siphon right-wing voters from the Republicans and Democrats get some landslide elections until they figure things out. There's also the chance that the Patriot Party just straight up becomes the de facto national right-of-center party and the Republicans are reduced to a 1992 Reform-style party or maybe even a 2016 McMullin-style regional party and elections continue to be competitive between the Democrats and a Trump-style right wing party with moderate Republicans as the kingmaker. It's not doomerism because I don't see it as a catastrophic change of events, just status quo with different names.

Even after clarifying this, if you think that Trump Jr would win Pennsylvania in a three-way race between him, Kamala, and Sasse? This is pure nonsense and you know it.

The specific candidates aren't important and Don Jr was a bad choice on my part. I've edited my original post to address this. Michigan and Pennsylvania are swing states and whoever the right-of-center candidate is will have a shot there if they can consolidate support behind them. Having McMullin and Johnson on the ballot in 2016 didn't doom a father-right candidate in those states in 2016.

Am I missing something here? I was not expecting people to get so up-in-arms about this and I'm really not trying to troll or be a doomer, especially about an election eight years away involving a party that probably will never see the light of day.
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emailking
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« Reply #48 on: January 20, 2021, 02:04:49 AM »

Am I missing something here? I was not expecting people to get so up-in-arms about this and I'm really not trying to troll or be a doomer, especially about an election eight years away involving a party that probably will never see the light of day.

I think you're fine. It's anybody's guess what would happen in this scenario. At one time people thought it was nuts that Trump Sr. could win, so who knows.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #49 on: January 20, 2021, 02:08:19 AM »

I'm calling it now: the party symbol will be an eagle carrying a US flag in one talon, a huge gold crucifix in the other, and a semi-automatic in a third talon.
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