Republicans who impeached Trump are already on the chopping block

[pppolitics]

Former President Donald Trump’s supporters are mobilizing to exact revenge on the 10 House Republicans who supported impeachment last week, thrusting the GOP into a civil war just as party leaders are trying to move on from the Trump era.

Pro-Trump Republicans are racing to launch primary challenges. The former president’s donors are cutting off the Republican incumbents. And Trump’s political lieutenants are plotting how to unseat them.

The unrest shows how Trump is all but certain to cast a shadow over the Republican Party long after he’s left the White House. Trump has split the GOP, pitting his loyalists against those who say he incited the Capitol Hill insurrection and want to expunge him from the party.

Whether the Trump-inspired primary challengers succeed is far from clear. Dislodging an incumbent is notoriously difficult, and Republican leaders are expected to move aggressively to protect their members. But the early activity illustrates the degree to which Trump’s staunch allies are determined to make his critics pay a price.

[...]

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/21/trump-revenge-gop-impeachment-backers-461189

[Sir Mohamed]

Well, at least they don't have to fear his Tweetie gun any longer.

[It’s so Joever]

1994 and 2010 were energetic years for Republicans, but in both cases they were rebukes of both the previous Republican president and the new Democratic administration.

That model doesn't need to hold in 2022, but it's worth considering that the elements that animate the party in the coming cycle might be more critical of Trump (or at least eager to move past him), especially if he continues to urge his supporters to leave the GOP.

Something tells me Trumpism won’t be abandoned or rebuked in the same way both Bushes were.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Who cares, they are in the minority anyways and deserves so after 4 yrs of Trump

[Bootes Void]

1994 and 2010 were energetic years for Republicans, but in both cases they were rebukes of both the previous Republican president and the new Democratic administration.

That model doesn't need to hold in 2022, but it's worth considering that the elements that animate the party in the coming cycle might be more critical of Trump (or at least eager to move past him), especially if he continues to urge his supporters to leave the GOP.

Something tells me Trumpism won’t be abandoned or rebuked in the same way both Bushes were.

That is the conventional wisdom. It might hold, but some reasons for skepticism are worth considering:

- Trump left office with a 30% approval rating, which is low enough to indicate that a substantial number of reliable Republicans were alienated.

- Many Trump Republicans are low-propensity voters who won't be voting in primaries without celebrity narratives to maintain their engagement.

- Trump is openly musing about starting a new party. His continuing relevance, such that it is, will not necessarily channel his supporters into activity within the GOP.

- Many of these people have now been programmed to believe that voting doesn't work. This will continue to discourage their turnout. We have already lived through one election in which Trump Republican turnout was depressed in part because many of his acolytes encouraged his supporters not to vote on account of the party's "betrayal."

- The Biden presidency is sure to fracture the Democratic coalition in some ways and this will create openings for expanding the GOP vote.

Of course one thing that GOP mid-term reactions have never been is moderate, so none of this is to suggest that a post-Trump Republican awakening will be any more appealing to you than its Trump-era manifestation.

Most of them say they are disatisfied with voting but will continue to vote(see Georgia runoffs)

Also Third parties like a Trump party will not go anywhere

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

1994 and 2010 were energetic years for Republicans, but in both cases they were rebukes of both the previous Republican president and the new Democratic administration.

That model doesn't need to hold in 2022, but it's worth considering that the elements that animate the party in the coming cycle might be more critical of Trump (or at least eager to move past him), especially if he continues to urge his supporters to leave the GOP.

Something tells me Trumpism won’t be abandoned or rebuked in the same way both Bushes were.

That is the conventional wisdom. It might hold, but some reasons for skepticism are worth considering:

- Trump left office with a 30% approval rating, which is low enough to indicate that a substantial number of reliable Republicans were alienated.

- Many Trump Republicans are low-propensity voters who won't be voting in primaries without celebrity narratives to maintain their engagement.

- Trump is openly musing about starting a new party. His continuing relevance, such that it is, will not necessarily channel his supporters into activity within the GOP.

- Many of these people have now been programmed to believe that voting doesn't work. This will continue to discourage their turnout. We have already lived through one election in which Trump Republican turnout was depressed in part because many of his acolytes encouraged his supporters not to vote on account of the party's "betrayal."

- The Biden presidency is sure to fracture the Democratic coalition in some ways and this will create openings for expanding the GOP vote.

Of course one thing that GOP mid-term reactions have never been is moderate, so none of this is to suggest that a post-Trump Republican awakening will be any more appealing to you than its Trump-era manifestation.

Most of them say they are disatisfied with voting but will continue to vote(see Georgia runoffs)

Also Third parties like a Trump party will not go anywhere

Frankly, if turnout is like the GA runoffs for midterms, that’s great news for Democrats.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Republicans also don’t need to pick up 40 seats to take the house like they did in 94/10 , they only need to pick up 5 or 6 house seats in 2022 to take the house and redistricting alone could allow them to do that let alone other midterm dynamics

Democrats are the ones who need a really good midterm for them like 1998/2002 to keep control of congress not the other way around

[It’s so Joever]

Fight, fight, fight!