Ecuador presidential and legislative elections (February 7th and April 11th, 2021)

[Bilardista]

That the two most voted candidates are Correa (through his proxy) and Lasso, is just depressing. Another "corrupt right winger vs corrupt left winger" election, i was kinda hopefull that ecuador could break away from this trend.                                                                              
Though I guess if i'm to be optimistic about something, it's a good sign that they only got a combined ~50%, their support does seem to be somewhat eroding.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

There’s always 2025 for the Yaku-Hervas runoff.

[bigic]

There will be a recount
https://mobile.twitter.com/FEscrutinio/status/1360360413309906950

[Antonio the Sixth]

I assume we aren't expecting a recount to change the outcomes. 0.36 is too big a margin to be the result of technical errors. The only way it would change is if there actually was fraud, but if so, who's to say the same people who tampered with the first count won't be tampering with the recount too?

[Velasco]

I assume we aren't expecting a recount to change the outcomes. 0.36 is too big a margin to be the result of technical errors. The only way it would change is if there actually was fraud, but if so, who's to say the same people who tampered with the first count won't be tampering with the recount too?

My impression is that there's no evidence of systematic fraud, but possibly there exist irregularities in some places. Given that the margin narrow, it's legit that Yaku Pérez demands a recount. But possibly you are right; it's unlikely the new count will change the outcome. I read yesterday that the meeting between Lasso and Pérez was not easy at the start. Apparently, according to an Ecuadorian newspaper quoted by the BBC, Yaku Perez told Guillermo Lasso that he should be the candidate that passes to the second round, because the latter has no chances against the Correa proxy. Even if Perez is right (quite possibly he is, unless Lasso gets the active endorsement of Pérez and Hervas) that's completely inelegant and immature. Transparency doesn't harm, un any case.

[buritobr]

"Encuesta" Eurek for the runoff

André Arauz 48%, Guillermo Lasso 41,5%

40% of the Yaku's voters will vote for Lasso, 30% of the Yaku's voters will vote for Arauz
52% of the Hervas's voters will vote for Lasso, 29% of the Hervas's voters will vote for Arauz

http://www.pichinchacomunicaciones.com.ec/andres-arauz-ganaria-la-presidencia-de-ecuador-con-537-segun-encuesta-de-eurek/

[Estrella]

Meanwhile in Ecuador -

the committed leftist and socialist Andrés Arauz stands with entrepreneurs

https://twitter.com/ecuarauz/status/1377454089047568389

the pious Catholic and member of Opus Dei Guillermo Lasso commemorates Transgender Day of Visibility

https://twitter.com/LassoGuillermo/status/1377386026755190787

(thanks to sirjohnjohns btw)

[buritobr]

Arauz and Lasso are very close, the left-wing candidate is a little bit ahead
Yaku's voters will be decisive. The indigenous candidate is not endorsing anyone

https://elpais.com/internacional/2021-04-07/los-ultimos-sondeos-apuntan-a-un-empate-tecnico-en-la-carrera-presidencial-de-ecuador.html

[Mike88]

So, exit polls say that Lasso has a slight edge, but exit polls in Ecuador are completely worthless, so we'll have to wait for the actual results.

[PSOL]

I have a feeling that while this race will be close, Lasso will ultimately win.

[Velasco]

For the record, Yaku Pérez went to vote with her mother Inés Guartamble Guañasaca in Tarqui, a rural parish located in Cuenca Department. Indigenous associations call to vote null as an act of resistance against the alleged fraud in the first round. Pérez writes that "we aspire the new ruler will listen and be sensible to the urgent needs of our people"

https://twitter.com/yakuperezg/status/1381296327913529350?s=19

[Mike88]

22.8% of precincts counted:

53.3% Lasso
46.7% Arauz

[BigSerg]

22.8% of precincts counted:

53.3% Lasso
46.7% Arauz

it's over
https://elecciones2021.cne.gob.ec/

[Mike88]

30.3% counted

53.6% Lasso
46.4% Arauz

The election results site is crashing, but the CNE has a live youtube feed of the results:

[Velasco]

The amount of blank and null votes is approximately a half of the votes received by Arauz,  according to the results I'm able to see at the elections website

[Mike88]

The amount of blank and null votes is approximately a half of the votes received by Arauz,  according to the results I'm able to see at the elections website

Yeah, huge amount of Invalid/Null ballots, more than 17% of the ballots already tallied. These may be Pérez voters, right?

[BigSerg]

The amount of blank and null votes is approximately a half of the votes received by Arauz,  according to the results I'm able to see at the elections website

Yaku perez voters

[kaoras]

Unless the remaining vote count in Guayas (Guayaquil) is extremely favorable to Arauz I think that Lasso got this. His margin there is way below what is needed to counter Pichincha (Quito). And Manabi can only do so much against the huge Lasso margins in the Sierra.

[Skye]

17% null votes... That seems rather high. I would've guessed if it's disgruntled Yaku voters that number would be the one for blank ballots. Then again, I'm not really familiar on how those type of votes are produced in Ecuador.

[Donerail]

17% null votes... That seems rather high. I would've guessed if it's disgruntled Yaku voters that number would be the one for blank ballots. Then again, I'm not really familiar on how those type of votes are produced in Ecuador.

Pérez himself cast a null ballot, not a blank one. Imagine many voters followed his lead.

[Mike88]

50.0% counted:

54.7% Lasso
45.3% Arauz

[Skye]

60% in and now the margin is 55-45 for Lasso. I guess that'll get closer sooner or later, right?

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Did something dramatic happen? After the 1st round Arauz was a smidge away from victory, Yaku Perez and his supporters were spoiling their ballots and Lasso was finished. Now Lasso appears to be headed to a relatively strong win. Where did all these Lasso supporters come from?

[kaoras]

60% in and now the margin is 55-45 for Lasso. I guess that'll get closer sooner or later, right?

Yeah, Manabi is huge, undercounted and with a 2-1 Margin for Arauz, but it won't be enough

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Did something dramatic happen? After the 1st round Arauz was a smidge away from victory, Yaku Perez and his supporters were spoiling their ballots and Lasso was finished. Now Lasso appears to be headed to a relatively strong win. Where did all these Lasso supporters come from?

I saw that Lasso had been narrowing the gap since the first round, so this didn’t really come out of nowhere, but I haven’t been following it closely enough to know anything for real.