If a decade ago, you were shown the 2020 election wiki page boxes, what would you think?

[ProgressiveModerate]

You only know what the images tell you; no specific margins or the events surrounding the election. Made this a while ago but decided to include congressional results and also pretty much everything except NY-22 has been called.

[Skill and Chance]

Do we know that Trump was the incumbent?  I think the default expectation seeing this a decade ago would be that this is Biden winning a 2nd term after an FDR style performance by Obama in 2012. 

[ProgressiveModerate]

Do we know that Trump was the incumbent?  I think the default expectation seeing this a decade ago would be that this is Biden winning a 2nd term after an FDR style performance by Obama in 2012. 

No, you don't know that, but you can infer the 2018 House results by seeing which House seats flipped from R->D and imply that 2018 was not a good year for Republicans for whatever reason

[President Johnson]

I would have been stunned that Donald Trump was ever president and that Joe Biden gets first elected in 2020.

Furthermore, I would have been very surprised Democrats won without Florida and Ohio.

[Paul Biya isn’t going far enough]

(Assuming I wasn’t an eight year old somehow lmao)

“Huh, I guess Ohio is no longer a bellwether, must have been close, possibly recount.”

“What is up with Arizona?! Did Trump p**s on McCain or something?”

“Huh...I guess Georgia is now competitive. Maybe all the Democrats in NC and FL moved there.”

“Wait...why is Donald Trump on the top of the ticket...did the GOP really think he would be the best person to beat an incumbent?!”

“Oh and in that regard, Obama must have been FDR, a New Democratic era is among us!”

“Wait...Pelosi is still majority leader...they really should find some new blood.”


I would guess that while 2014/2018 weren’t great years for the Democrats (although they obviously kept the house in 2018), Obama and Biden’s coattails in 2012 and 2016 would lead to massive Democratic waves during those years which is why the Democrats would still hold the House Majority before 2020. Presumably Biden is less popular than 4 years ago and barely won+had no coattails.

[It's Time.]

8 year old me would wonder who Donald Trump is and then go back to playing Mario Galaxy.

[It's Time.]

(Assuming I wasn’t an eight year old somehow lmao)

“Huh, I guess Ohio is no longer a bellwether, must have been close, possibly recount.”

“What is up with Arizona?! Did Trump p**s on McCain or something?”

“Huh...I guess Georgia is now competitive. Maybe all the Democrats in NC and FL moved there.”

“Wait...why is Donald Trump on the top of the ticket...did the GOP really think he would be the best person to beat an incumbent?!”

“Oh and in that regard, Obama must have been FDR, a New Democratic era is among us!”

“Wait...Pelosi is still majority leader...they really should find some new blood.”


I would guess that while 2014/2018 weren’t great years for the Democrats (although they obviously kept the house in 2018), Obama and Biden’s coattails in 2012 and 2016 would lead to massive Democratic waves during those years which is why the Democrats would still hold the House Majority before 2020. Presumably Biden is less popular than 4 years ago and barely won+had no coattails.

Trump would have to be the incumbent because his photo suggests that he holds elected office. He has the American Flag behind him.

[It's Time.]

If me from today saw these wiki boxed 10 years ago, here would be my thoughts

-GA would be a lean/likely d state that would be like Colorado
-High turnout is the norm, 2010 turnout would be unheard of.
-Donald Trump would be the incumbent, and he would get shellacked in 2018.
-Kamala Harris would be the governor of California
-Donald Trump would have run for some office in Florida in 2014/2012, and then win the Presidency in 2016.
-Trump in 2016 would have lost the PV in 2016, but won the white house by winning PA.
-Iowa/Ohio would be lean R.
-Republicans would rarely win the PV.
-Black Turnout is high.
-Democrats have a bad performance in Miami-Dade, winning by 15%.
-Democrats win Alabama because of a weak republican candidate.
-Susan Collins transcends partisanship.
-John McCain dies, and then republicans do bad in Arizona.
-Democrats die in rural areas, Republicans regress in suburbs.
-Obama is re-elected easily.
-Republican gain amongst Hispanics.

[Skill and Chance]

Do we know that Trump was the incumbent?  I think the default expectation seeing this a decade ago would be that this is Biden winning a 2nd term after an FDR style performance by Obama in 2012. 

No, you don't know that, but you can infer the 2018 House results by seeing which House seats flipped from R->D and imply that 2018 was not a good year for Republicans for whatever reason

Yes, I could see that it's a much better Dem result than 2011, but I would think they were coming down from 250+ Dem House seats after 2016, especially since they still kept Pelosi as leader. 

[bagelman]

The Republicans nominated Trump out of desperation against incumbent President Biden and lost. Ohio is very disappointing but I assume it was maybe 2 points at most. 2018 was an R friendly midterm, - wait never mind, I guess 2018 was like 2002?! I can't imagine Trump as the incumbent President so that's really the only reasonable idea. Atlanta much be growing like crazy, and the last hurrah of deep southern conservative Democrats has fallen in Alabama.

Perhaps the 2016 was a northerneastern moderate Republican, and didn't attract the evangelical base well enough. Republicans held congress but went too far to appease evangelicals in 2017 and 2018 and that's how Democrats managed to gain or hold the house that year.

[H. Ross Peron]

Be surprised Nancy Pelosi still led House Democrats.

[Skill and Chance]

(Assuming I wasn’t an eight year old somehow lmao)

“Huh, I guess Ohio is no longer a bellwether, must have been close, possibly recount.”

“What is up with Arizona?! Did Trump p**s on McCain or something?”

“Huh...I guess Georgia is now competitive. Maybe all the Democrats in NC and FL moved there.”

“Wait...why is Donald Trump on the top of the ticket...did the GOP really think he would be the best person to beat an incumbent?!”

“Oh and in that regard, Obama must have been FDR, a New Democratic era is among us!”

“Wait...Pelosi is still majority leader...they really should find some new blood.”


I would guess that while 2014/2018 weren’t great years for the Democrats (although they obviously kept the house in 2018), Obama and Biden’s coattails in 2012 and 2016 would lead to massive Democratic waves during those years which is why the Democrats would still hold the House Majority before 2020. Presumably Biden is less popular than 4 years ago and barely won+had no coattails.

Trump would have to be the incumbent because his photo suggests that he holds elected office. He has the American Flag behind him.

Seeing that the House and Senate leaders' pictures look different, and knowing Trump's background in showbusiness, that isn't a safe assumption.  Assuming he held office, I would also think it much more likely that he won NY-13 (now NY-11) or something.  

[ProgressiveModerate]

The Republicans nominated Trump out of desperation against incumbent President Biden and lost. Ohio is very disappointing but I assume it was maybe 2 points at most. 2018 was an R friendly midterm, - wait never mind, I guess 2018 was like 2002?! I can't imagine Trump as the incumbent President so that's really the only reasonable idea. Atlanta much be growing like crazy, and the last hurrah of deep southern conservative Democrats has fallen in Alabama.

Perhaps the 2016 was a northerneastern moderate Republican, and didn't attract the evangelical base well enough. Republicans held congress but went too far to appease evangelicals in 2017 and 2018 and that's how Democrats managed to gain or hold the house that year.

IMO, it's easier to assume Dems won 2012 and 2016 in landslides and then lost ground in 2018 than to assume they won big in their own president's midterm.  Having seen 2008 but not 2012 or 2016, an observer from 2011 might wonder if the era of landslides had returned. 

The issue with that is why would the Democrats only have 50 Senate seats? Also; the Senate map indicates 2014 wasn't a good year at all for Democrats

[It's Time.]

(Assuming I wasn’t an eight year old somehow lmao)

“Huh, I guess Ohio is no longer a bellwether, must have been close, possibly recount.”

“What is up with Arizona?! Did Trump p**s on McCain or something?”

“Huh...I guess Georgia is now competitive. Maybe all the Democrats in NC and FL moved there.”

“Wait...why is Donald Trump on the top of the ticket...did the GOP really think he would be the best person to beat an incumbent?!”

“Oh and in that regard, Obama must have been FDR, a New Democratic era is among us!”

“Wait...Pelosi is still majority leader...they really should find some new blood.”


I would guess that while 2014/2018 weren’t great years for the Democrats (although they obviously kept the house in 2018), Obama and Biden’s coattails in 2012 and 2016 would lead to massive Democratic waves during those years which is why the Democrats would still hold the House Majority before 2020. Presumably Biden is less popular than 4 years ago and barely won+had no coattails.

Trump would have to be the incumbent because his photo suggests that he holds elected office. He has the American Flag behind him.

Seeing that the House and Senate leaders' pictures look different, and knowing Trump's background in showbusiness, that isn't a safe assumption.  Assuming he held office, I would also think it much more likely that he won NY-13 (now NY-11) or something.  

Yeah I guess so but it would be very weird for democrats to lose house seats in a presidential year if they hold the white house, that hasn't happened in decades. Democrats holding 230+ house seats in a dem midterm is very unusual.

[SnowLabrador]

8 year old me would wonder who Donald Trump is and then go back to playing Mario Galaxy.

Same, except I would have been 10, lol.

[Chips]

Something weird has been happening.

[brucejoel99]

The Alabama flip would basically give the whole ball game away if you think about it long enough:

Why would Republicans be gaining that seat in 2020 if Jeff Sessions is the current incumbent? Oh, he must've stepped down for some reason. Maybe to take a Cabinet job or something? Well, the Republican frontrunner for 2012 right now is Mitt Romney, but Sessions isn't exactly Cabinet-material for him, & judging by the Democratic gain of Colorado in 2020, that must mean that Udall went down in an 'Obama 6-year itch' 2014, so I'd wager Sessions stepped down to take a Cabinet job after being re-elected in 2014 & seeing a Republican president win in 2016. Now, Sessions & Trump seem like they'd both really get along on account of their mutual knack for xenophobia, so I can see that, & as for the Democrats in 2016, well, Hillary has been the odds-on favorite to be the next non-Obama Democratic nominee ever since the moment that she dropped out in 2008, & didn't those 'Game Change' guys write that Biden told Obama when he was being vetted for VP that he wasn't interested in running for President again? So with it looking like Obama won in 2012 & Biden not winning (or even running for) the nomination in 2016, I'd guess that Trump ran in 2016 against Hillary, won, picked Sessions to be in his Cabinet, was unpopular enough to see the Democrats win the AL special election a-la Scott Brown in MA, & ultimately lost re-election in 2020 to a Biden who sought to avenge the Democratic Party.

The only thing that'd really be wrong about this line of thinking is the assumption that Trump's unpopularity led to the Republicans losing Sessions' seat instead of the Republicans having nominated a literal child molester to succeed him.

[Motorcity]

1. I would assume that Biden won in 2016 and re-election in 2020, but I would be surprised that Democrats won four elections in a row

2. I would assume Arizona and Georgia became tossups along with Ohio and Florida, each a coin toss. Which Biden happened to win. (There were signs they were becoming swing states in 2018)

3. If this was after the November 2010 elections, I assumed Democrats won back the house in either 2012 or 2016 and kept it

4. I am not sure about senate.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

The country was pro R a decade

[Alben Barkley]

We had a Senate seat in Alabama???

[Hammy]

Obama was defeated in 2012 (probably by Santorum or Huckabee) but the incumbent was below 40% approval by election day. Biden won in a huge landslide in 2016, the real-world 2012 map plus NC/GA/AZ. But Biden saw the usual incumbency losses in the midterms, albeit smaller, and a declining base of support in 2020, leading to OH/IA/NC/FL flipping and further House losses.

However, I would have legitimately no idea what to think if I was also told Trump was the incumbent.

[Ogre Mage]

My reactions from January 2011:

--How the hell did Trump top a presidential ticket?!?!?  Has the country gone mad?!?!  Was he the incumbent PRESIDENT??!!!?!?!

--I'm less surprised that Biden made it, but still surprised.  I thought he would be too old.

--Why did Trump pick Congressman Pence?  He seems like a backbencher.  Maybe nobody else would take the job.

--Karl Rove's SuperPAC targeted California AG Kamala Harris with over $1 million in attack ads in 2010.  It raised eyebrows he was meddling in a relatively low profile race.  Chattering class speculation was that Rove was worried if Harris was left unchecked, she would be on a presidential ticket someday.  Rove was correct.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Obama was defeated in 2012 (probably by Santorum or Huckabee) but the incumbent was below 40% approval by election day. Biden won in a huge landslide in 2016, the real-world 2012 map plus NC/GA/AZ. But Biden saw the usual incumbency losses in the midterms, albeit smaller, and a declining base of support in 2020, leading to OH/IA/NC/FL flipping and further House losses.

However, I would have legitimately no idea what to think if I was also told Trump was the incumbent.

So if 2016 was a massive D wave and 2018 was enough to win 232 House seats, how would Democrats only have 50 Senate seats?

[Hammy]

Obama was defeated in 2012 (probably by Santorum or Huckabee) but the incumbent was below 40% approval by election day. Biden won in a huge landslide in 2016, the real-world 2012 map plus NC/GA/AZ. But Biden saw the usual incumbency losses in the midterms, albeit smaller, and a declining base of support in 2020, leading to OH/IA/NC/FL flipping and further House losses.

However, I would have legitimately no idea what to think if I was also told Trump was the incumbent.

So if 2016 was a massive D wave and 2018 was enough to win 232 House seats, how would Democrats only have 50 Senate seats?

I would've chocked it up to 2012--if Obama had lost there's a lot of D seats that would've likely gone R. Wisconsin and Pennsylvania among them.

[SWE]

10 year old SWE wouldn't have an idea what would be remarkable about any of this beyond finding it funny that Trump ran for president