Japan 2021 Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections (July) and Lower House Election (Oct?)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
August 02, 2021, 09:04:00 PM
News: EV Calculator updated with new apportionment numbers, custom labels, orange party color and more. Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, afleitch, Hash)
  Japan 2021 Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections (July) and Lower House Election (Oct?)
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 14 15 16 17 18 [19]
Author Topic: Japan 2021 Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections (July) and Lower House Election (Oct?)  (Read 15487 times)
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,339
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #450 on: July 21, 2021, 03:48:42 PM »

There is a small COVID-19 surge in Japan.  But it almost completely in Tokyo and the Tokyo suburbs 埼玉(Saitama), 千葉(Chiba) and 神奈川(Kanagawa) with the rest of Japan seeing hardly an increase.  From the Olympics and Suga's point of view this surge is coming in the wrong time and wrong place.
Logged
Logical
Rookie
**
Posts: 101


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #451 on: July 21, 2021, 08:42:16 PM »

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20210721/k10013152451000.html
嵐の党 (Storm Party), usually referred to as the NHK Party, changes its name again to NHKと裁判してる党弁護士法72条違反で (The party fighting against NHK in the trial for violating Article 72 of the Attorney Act)
I'm not sure what Article 72 of the Attorney Act is. For a non parody party, these guys are pretty entertaining though.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,339
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #452 on: July 21, 2021, 08:56:15 PM »

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20210721/k10013152451000.html
嵐の党 (Storm Party), usually referred to as the NHK Party, changes its name again to NHKと裁判してる党弁護士法72条違反で (The party fighting against NHK in the trial for violating Article 72 of the Attorney Act)
I'm not sure what Article 72 of the Attorney Act is. For a non parody party, these guys are pretty entertaining though.

Sigh.  I saw this and just gave up on following this anymore.  Anyway Article 72 seem to state

"No person other than an attorney or a Legal Professional Corporation may, for the purpose of obtaining compensation, engage in the business of providing legal advice or representation, handling arbitration matters, aiding in conciliation, or providing other legal services in connection with any lawsuits, non-contentious cases, or objections, requesting for re-examination, appeals and other petitions against administrative agencies, etc., or other general legal services, or acting as an intermediary in such matters; provided, however, that the foregoing shall not apply if otherwise specified in this Act or other laws."

In other words the accusation is that NHK is acting as judge, defense lawyer, and jury for accusations against NHK by being able to publish their defense on their own channel ?  I have no idea what they are talking about but I assume it is something like that.

In the end 2019 was their year and not 2021.  There is always a novelty factor for new parties coming onto the national scene.  2010 was the year of YP (they first ran in 2009 but DPJ stole the show there.)  HRP also did well in 2009 as it was their debut.  CDP's way overperformed in 2017 as the novel party.  2009 was PNHK's turn to be the novel party.  Same is true for RS in 2019 where they benefited from novelty factor.   2021 whatever protest vote PNHK got in 2019 will have mostly dissipated.  It is not clear who, if any, will be the novelty party.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,339
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #453 on: July 22, 2021, 07:26:53 AM »

For 横浜市(Yokohama) mayor race the local KP is calling for a free vote for KP supporters.   The number of candidates is up to 10.  Some doctor also jumped into the race.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,339
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #454 on: July 22, 2021, 12:03:02 PM »

https://www.axios.com/tokyo-olympics-swimming-venue-toilet-smell-2e7b264c-9cfd-45c4-9b01-92297ddf0e2c.html

"Tokyo Olympics' outdoor swimming venue smells "like a toilet""

This is from a few days ago but the Indian media is making a big deal about it.  It seems that the water in outdoor swimming events will smell "like a toilet" but it safe to swing in.

Reminds me of how the new Premier smokeless cigarette were being described in "Barbarians at the Gate" : "Tastes like sh**t and smells like a fart! Got ourselves a real winner here, it's one goddamn unique advertising slogan I'll give you that."
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,339
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #455 on: July 25, 2021, 08:31:18 AM »

Abe cabinet approval/disapproval slowing moving downward toward 30%.  Suga has to hope for a breakout Olympic medal performance for Japan.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,339
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #456 on: July 27, 2021, 05:07:47 PM »

KP set a goal of winning 8 million votes on the PR section in the upcoming Lower House elections. 



This is very unlikely to take place. 

A look at the KP PR vote since 2001 and that year's turnout

           KP vote      turnout
2001   8,187,805    54.03%
2003   8,733,444    57.77%
2004   8,621,266    54.52%
2005   8,987,620    65.85%
2007   7,765,329    56.81%
2009   8,054,007    67.70%
2010   7,639,433    56.19%
2012   7,116,474    57.89%
2013   7,568,085    51.11%
2014   7,314,236    51.30%
2016   7,572,959    52.74%
2017   6,977,712    52.56%
2019   6,536,337    47.29%

For KP to get to 8 million KP has to have a good election AND turnout be a least 57% and usually these two things are mutually exclusive (KP vote share falls as turnout rises.)  A more likely path would be KP has an OK year with turnout around 60%.  KP might know something rest of us does not know for turnout to surge to that sort of level.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,339
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #457 on: July 28, 2021, 06:11:24 AM »

https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/14405073

"Tokyo’s neighbors seek COVID-19 state of emergency"

The 3 urbanized Tokyo suburbs of 埼玉(Saitama), 千葉(Chiba), 神奈川(Kanagawa) are all asking for a state of emergency just like Tokyo.

The medal situation for Japan in the Olympics are so far so good but the COVID-19 spread is picking up.  Still net net negative for Suga.  He has to hope the current surge subsides by end of Aug leaving only memories of a good metal haul in the minds of the voter come fall.
Logged
It's a cruel, cruel, cruel summer
Nathan
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,547


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #458 on: July 28, 2021, 02:47:31 PM »

https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/14405073

"Tokyo’s neighbors seek COVID-19 state of emergency"

The 3 urbanized Tokyo suburbs of 埼玉(Saitama), 千葉(Chiba), 神奈川(Kanagawa) are all asking for a state of emergency just like Tokyo.

The medal situation for Japan in the Olympics are so far so good but the COVID-19 spread is picking up.  Still net net negative for Suga.  He has to hope the current surge subsides by end of Aug leaving only memories of a good metal haul in the minds of the voter come fall.

Which of course entails hoping people will have a longer memory about the Olympics than about the COVID spread in the first place--itself not a given!
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,339
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #459 on: July 30, 2021, 05:23:27 AM »

https://www.kgw.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/japan-expands-virus-emergency-record-spikes-amid-games/507-fccd2dd2-893b-47b8-a1de-e9688609f3cc

"Japan expands virus emergency after record spikes amid Games"

The 3 urbanized Tokyo suburbs of 埼玉(Saitama), 千葉(Chiba), 神奈川(Kanagawa) plus 大阪(Osaka) are all under the state of emergency due to COVID-19 spike.  Officials say this surge is not related to Olympics but the optics are not good.
Logged
NewYorkExpress
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,816
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #460 on: July 30, 2021, 05:46:37 AM »

https://www.kgw.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/japan-expands-virus-emergency-record-spikes-amid-games/507-fccd2dd2-893b-47b8-a1de-e9688609f3cc

"Japan expands virus emergency after record spikes amid Games"

The 3 urbanized Tokyo suburbs of 埼玉(Saitama), 千葉(Chiba), 神奈川(Kanagawa) plus 大阪(Osaka) are all under the state of emergency due to COVID-19 spike.  Officials say this surge is not related to Olympics but the optics are not good.


Hopefully some government, somewhere, indicts the leadership at the IOC for refusing to cancel the games during this pandemic.
Logged
MaxQue
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,443
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #461 on: July 30, 2021, 08:42:00 AM »

https://www.kgw.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/japan-expands-virus-emergency-record-spikes-amid-games/507-fccd2dd2-893b-47b8-a1de-e9688609f3cc

"Japan expands virus emergency after record spikes amid Games"

The 3 urbanized Tokyo suburbs of 埼玉(Saitama), 千葉(Chiba), 神奈川(Kanagawa) plus 大阪(Osaka) are all under the state of emergency due to COVID-19 spike.  Officials say this surge is not related to Olympics but the optics are not good.


Hopefully some government, somewhere, indicts the leadership at the IOC for refusing to cancel the games during this pandemic.

Suga having no spine is not the fault of the IOC.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,339
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #462 on: July 30, 2021, 08:58:35 AM »

https://www.kgw.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/japan-expands-virus-emergency-record-spikes-amid-games/507-fccd2dd2-893b-47b8-a1de-e9688609f3cc

"Japan expands virus emergency after record spikes amid Games"

The 3 urbanized Tokyo suburbs of 埼玉(Saitama), 千葉(Chiba), 神奈川(Kanagawa) plus 大阪(Osaka) are all under the state of emergency due to COVID-19 spike.  Officials say this surge is not related to Olympics but the optics are not good.


Hopefully some government, somewhere, indicts the leadership at the IOC for refusing to cancel the games during this pandemic.

Suga having no spine is not the fault of the IOC.

He has no choice.  He is like a gambler that lost so much money that he has to stay in the casino to try to clam back some of the lost money.  So far the this last bet is most likely a tiny loss and not a massive one despite the COVID-19 surge.  Japanese social media has become more positive on the Olympics after it actually started.  Part of it is just acceptance and hoping to make the best of it.
Logged
CumbrianLeftie
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,428
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #463 on: July 30, 2021, 10:19:07 AM »

Something of a contrast here with the recent Euro 2020 football event, there is little doubt it led to a spike in virus cases and infections but the general consensus still seems to be that it was worth it.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,339
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #464 on: August 01, 2021, 06:07:39 AM »

仙台市(Sendai) mayor exit poll

Anti-LDP incumbent massive landslide (something like 87-13) over pro-LDP challenger (ex-MP but she won in 2012 on a fluke and is really a lightweight as this result shows.)

The scale of defeat is an embarrassment to LDP
Logged
Flyersfan232
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,176


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #465 on: August 01, 2021, 07:31:25 AM »

So how is the issue of the line to throne needing more people issues problem going? They going to considering allowing female be empress once more?
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,339
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #466 on: August 01, 2021, 08:23:11 AM »

So how is the issue of the line to throne needing more people issues problem going? They going to considering allowing female be empress once more?

I do not expect any changes.  In theory a large majority of the population are for allowing a female empress but at the elite level only the JCP leadership is for such a change.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,339
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #467 on: August 01, 2021, 09:45:01 AM »

仙台市(Sendai) mayor election (92% of the vote in)

Anti-LDP Opposition incumbent   84.5%
pro-LDP                                    15.5%

Slightly better for pro-LDP candidate than exit polls indicated.  Even though the LDP-KP did not endorse anyone the fact that the pro-LDP candidate was a LDP MP makes it clear the alignment.  This type of result is more like a pro-LDP incumbent (with de facto support from Center-Left Opposition) vs JCP only this time the pro-LDP candidate is on the receiving end of the landslide.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 14 15 16 17 18 [19]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.052 seconds with 11 queries.