Japan 2021 Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections (July) and Lower House Election Oct 31st
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Logical
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« Reply #825 on: October 21, 2021, 04:49:32 AM »

If you go seat by seat from the Yomiuri writeup you get

             District         PR          Total
LDP          163            68          231
KP               8            25            33
JRP            12            17            29
DPP             5              4              9
CDP           89            44          133
RS              0              2              2
SDP            1              1              2
JCP             1             15           16
Ind.           10                           10 (5 pro-LDP 5 pro-Opposition)
--------------------------------------------------
              289            176         465

LDP barely misses majority although with the 5 pro-LDP independents at least 3 will be retroactively nominated to get the LDP the majority.  Also among the tossups there are a good deal more CDP ahead than LDP ahead so this projection is most likely a floor for LDP and they should win 3-4 more district seats that this chart.

Still to be in the 230s is a disappointing projection for Kishida.

On the other hand, if you believe that Kishida's honeymoon effect will continue to dissipate until election day then things could get worse for the LDP.
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jaichind
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« Reply #826 on: October 21, 2021, 04:58:40 AM »

https://www.nikkan-gendai.com/articles/view/life/296251
"Leaked" LDP internals by Nikkan Gendai. No topline numbers but they show districts where LDP candidates are neck and neck with their opponents. According to the article itself, JRP is slightly ahead in Osaka 4th, 7th ,9th, 12th and 19th district. The opposition candidate is ahead in Saitama 1st. Most surprising thing is Ozawa Ichiro's name in this list though. It might explain why he chose to spend the first day campaigning in his district instead of touring the country for the first time since he was first elected in 1969.
https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/70eb8071a74b8ac28d547697ef24539d6100df66


https://twitter.com/yorontyousaj

has been posting documents which seems to be the LDP internal polls that went into being the basis of this news article. 

Here is the 青森(Aomori) and  岩手(Iwate) polls that seems to indicate that Ozawa is neck-to-neck in his district.


Many commentators to these documents being put online indicate that the format of the report does seem to match other internal LDP polling documents but one cannot rule out that the MOE must be large and there could also some manipulation of the results by the LDP.

Furthermore the date of these polls are Oct 7-Oct 10 which now seems to be the peak of the Kishida honeymoon so even taken at face value these are most likely overestimates of LDP strength.
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jaichind
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« Reply #827 on: October 21, 2021, 05:37:49 AM »

Looking over the  Yomiuri seat by seat projections takeaways are

1) JRP doing well in the Kinki area with a solid chance of a JRP sweep in Osaka.  JRP expected strength in next door 兵庫(Hyōgo) are eating into the LDP vote and making a bunch of safe LDP seats  LDP vs CDP vs JRP marginals.  LDP will hold but it seems that 兵庫(Hyōgo) is becoming competitive.

2) Relative LDP weakness seems to be across the board and spread across urban and rural areas as well as in North and South.  The idea of Kishida will lead to LDP overperformance in rural and Southern areas and underperformance  in urban and Northern area does not seem to be true.  JRP is cutting into the LDP vote in urban areas but even without JRP LDP seems to be taking losses in Southern  and rural areas as well.

3) Opposition rebels having no impact as anti-LDP vote are consolidating around the main Opposition candidate in districts where Opposition rebels are running.  Opposition backed independents on the other hand doing fairly well and are competitive in districts where LDP was though to be well ahead

4) While some minor LDP rebels are having no impact there are 2-3 seats where LDP rebels will or could throw the seat to the CDP.  In LDP vs LDP rebel seats the LDP rebels are doing better than expected and could win a few.

5) Due to Kishida LDP-KP doing better than expected in  広島(Hiroshima) and it seems the KP candidate will win his seat there with good margin despite the view that the race was a tossup

6) Another area of unexpected LDP strength is 愛知(Aichi) where the Rengo blowback against the CDP-JCP is leading the LDP to be a bit stronger than expected and limit their losses relative to 2017.

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jaichind
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« Reply #828 on: October 21, 2021, 05:58:26 AM »

Kyodo News's projection is for LDP to lose 30-60 seats.  LDP has 276 seats now so that puts it at 216-246 seats with a medium of 231. 

Kyodo and Asahi are the more Left wing media outfits so their projections tend to be more pro-LDP as part of overreaction to adjusting for house effects.  It would be interesting to see what Asahi come out with.  If they also come out with something in the 230s like Yomiuri and Kyodo then LDP is in trouble as these average of these projections historically have overestimated LDP.   We also have the momentum factor as well the fact that these projections are based on polls which were taken a few days ago when the Kishida honeymoon have not completely worn off yet.

If Asahi come out with projections in the 230s for LDP then there is a real chance that LDP could end up in the 220s which would be a disaster and Kishida also becoming a short term leader.
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jaichind
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« Reply #829 on: October 21, 2021, 07:34:04 AM »

福井(Fukui) based media poll on 北陸信越(Hokuriku Shinetsu) zone PR. Pretty positive for CDP and JRP.  Not so good for DPP and somewhat LDP.

                       2021 poll      2019        2017
LDP                      36.6        41.5         37.1
KP                         4.8          9.5           8.9
PNHK                     1.1         1.6
JRP                        6.9         6.6            4.6
DPP/HP                  2.5         9.0          19.2
CDP                     24.2        16.0         19.5
RS                        2.3          4.0
SDP                      1.6          2.7          2.5
JCP                       7.6          7.7          7.5

LDP-KP                41.4       51.0         46.0
Center-Left+JCP   38.2       39.4         48.7 (if one counts HP as Center-Left)

It seems the PR vote balance will be more like 2017 than 2019 once you take into account that some of the 2017 HP PR vote will flow back to JRP.  Pretty bad news for LDP which was counting a on PR vote surge relative to 2017
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jaichind
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« Reply #830 on: October 21, 2021, 08:25:14 AM »
« Edited: October 21, 2021, 08:00:25 PM by jaichind »

Local 福島(Fukushima) media PR poll.   Pretty good poll for CDP and LDP.  
 

                      2021 poll      2019        2017
LDP                       37         38.2         31.7
KP                          7          12.8         11.3
PNHK                      1           1.8
JRP                         4           5.3          3.3
DPP/HP                   3         12.1         22.4
CDP                      29         13.6         19.0
RS                          2          4.0
SDP                        2          3.0          3.3
JCP                         8          8.0          7.8

LDP-KP                 44         51.0         43.0
Center-Left+JCP    44         40.7         52.5 (if one counts HP as Center-Left)

Comparison of the poll to 2019 and 2017 shows that the result is most likely to be between 2017 and 2019 which is not bad for LDP which was hoping to match 2019 PR vote levels.


An interesting part about this poll is that the CDP does relatively better on the PR vote with men while LDP does relatively better on the PR vote with women which goes against CW.
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jaichind
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« Reply #831 on: October 21, 2021, 08:41:13 AM »

Yomiuri rating out of the 132 seats where it is LDP-KP vs United Opposition

It has LDP-KP ahead in 50(LDP 48 KP 1 pro-LDP ind 1), United Opposition ahead in 24 (CDP 21 DPP 3)
58 are neck to neck. 

JCP RS SDP are, as expected, behind in their seats.  Out of the 58 neck-to-neck seats are being contested by CDP so the battle is really LDP vs CDP in marginal seats.
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CascadianIndy
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« Reply #832 on: October 21, 2021, 06:20:13 PM »



New Osaka-only poll.

Do you approve of the Kishida Cabinet?

Approve 42
Disapprove 33
No answer 25

Which party do you support?
JRP 30
LDP 27
CDP 10
KP 8
JCP 7
DPFP 1
RS 1
SDP 1
Other 1
PNHK 0
No answer/Refuse to answer 16
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #833 on: October 21, 2021, 06:22:41 PM »



New Osaka-only poll.

Do you approve of the Kishida Cabinet?

Approve 42
Disapprove 33
No answer 25

Which party do you support?
JRP 30
LDP 27
CDP 10
KP 8
JCP 7
DPFP 1
RS 1
SDP 1
Other 1
PNHK 0
No answer/Refuse to answer 16
Is the CDP at only 10% a bad result?
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jaichind
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« Reply #834 on: October 21, 2021, 06:25:02 PM »



New Osaka-only poll.

Do you approve of the Kishida Cabinet?

Approve 42
Disapprove 33
No answer 25

Which party do you support?
JRP 30
LDP 27
CDP 10
KP 8
JCP 7
DPFP 1
RS 1
SDP 1
Other 1
PNHK 0
No answer/Refuse to answer 16
Is the CDP at only 10% a bad result?

It is not bad for CDP.  In Osaka it is really JRP vs LDP.  Also understand party support is not the same as PR vote.  A lot of independents lean CDP but identify as indpendent while voting CDP.
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Logical
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« Reply #835 on: October 22, 2021, 01:06:58 AM »
« Edited: October 22, 2021, 01:33:22 AM by Logical »

Nikkei released its seat by seat projection today. They are predicting a complete Osaka LDP wipeout. JRP are ahead in 14 districts, CDP down to 1. The rest of the projection is barely more favourable to the LDP than Yomiuri's, but then again they use the same raw data sets with their own in house weightings so make of it what you will.
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Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!
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« Reply #836 on: October 22, 2021, 01:34:40 AM »

Why is it that Ishin is so strong in Hyogo as opposed to Kyoto or Wakayama? Is it just that they're an overly urban party or is there some local dynamic I'm missing?

Also, in the event CDP were within range of forming a government (not saying that could happen this election) would they actually be likely to achieve anything or would they end up torn by internal dissent like the DPJ?
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jaichind
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« Reply #837 on: October 22, 2021, 05:46:25 AM »

茨城(Ibaraki) News poll on 北関東 (North Kanto) zone PR

                      2021 poll      2019        2017
LDP                    32.4         35.5         33.2
KP                        6.7         14.1         13.1
PNHK                    1.3          2.2
JRP                       5.8          6.5          3.4
DPP/HP                 3.4          6.9         19.3
CDP                    23.3        18.8         22.0
RS                       3.0          4.4
SDP                     1.0          1.5          1.1
JCP                      8.2          8.8          7.5

LDP-KP               39.1        49.6         46.3
Center-Left+JCP  38.9        40.4         49.9 (if one counts HP as Center-Left)

Like the other polls once we factor in some 2017 HP PR vote going to JRP 2021 looks more like 2017 than 2019.
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jaichind
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« Reply #838 on: October 22, 2021, 05:53:51 AM »

Kyodo poll on 東北 (Tohoku) PR bloc

                      2021 poll      2019        2017
LDP                    34.9         40.1         34.6
KP                        5.7         10.8         11.0
PNHK                    1.1          1.8
JRP                       4.7          4.5          3.0
DPP/HP                 2.9          9.7         21.7
CDP                    23.3        16.5         18.1
RS                       2.2          3.9
SDP                     1.5          3.2          2.5
JCP                      7.8          8.2          7.4

LDP-KP               40.6        50.9         45.6
Center-Left+JCP  37.7        41.5         49.7 (if one counts HP as Center-Left)

A little better for LDP-KP relative to 2017 when compared to 北関東 (North Kanto).  Still adjusting for some of 2017 HP PR vote going to JRP 2021 looks more like 2017 than 2019.
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jaichind
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« Reply #839 on: October 22, 2021, 06:09:53 AM »

Nikkei released its seat by seat projection today. They are predicting a complete Osaka LDP wipeout. JRP are ahead in 14 districts, CDP down to 1. The rest of the projection is barely more favourable to the LDP than Yomiuri's, but then again they use the same raw data sets with their own in house weightings so make of it what you will.

If you go seat by seat from the Nikkei writeup you get

             District         PR          Total
LDP          157            71          228
KP               8            23            31
JRP            14            14            28
DPP             5              1              6
CDP           93            54          147
RS              0              0              0
SDP            1              0              1
JCP             1             13           14
Ind.           10                           10 (5 pro-LDP 5 pro-Opposition)
--------------------------------------------------
              289            176         465

The seems to expect polarization at the PR vote level which pushes put LDP and CDP PR seat as the smaller parties are squeezed.  As mentioned they expect a complete JRP sweep in Osaka.  They are less chicken than  Yomiuri by having a good deal fewer tossups than  Yomiuri.

Other than Osaka, other main differences Nikkei had when compared to Yomiuri is that they are less bullish on LDP in old opposition stronghold 愛知(Aichi) although they do have LDP slightly outperforming CW there.  Nikkei does not except a near sweep for CDP in 北海道(Hokkaido) as Yomiuri expects.   

Nikkei also redoubles down in LDP meltdown in 長崎(Nagasaki).  LDP is very strong 長崎(Nagasaki) and its 4 seats was expected to be LDP 3 DPP 1.  Yomiuri already had a shock projection that 長崎(Nagasaki) 3rd and 長崎(Nagasaki) 4th are tossups with CDP slightly ahead in 長崎(Nagasaki) 4th.  In 長崎(Nagasaki) 4th a strong LDP rebel is running which is turning the race into a 3 way battle LDP vs CDP vs LDP rebel battle. Nikkei comes in and redoubles down on that by claiming that 長崎(Nagasaki) 3rd is tossup but lean CDP and 長崎(Nagasaki) 4th is likely CDP.  While many expected 長崎(Nagasaki) 4th to be competitive it is a shock that LDP is more likely to lose the seat than win it.
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jaichind
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« Reply #840 on: October 22, 2021, 06:11:19 AM »

Why is it that Ishin is so strong in Hyogo as opposed to Kyoto or Wakayama? Is it just that they're an overly urban party or is there some local dynamic I'm missing?

Also, in the event CDP were within range of forming a government (not saying that could happen this election) would they actually be likely to achieve anything or would they end up torn by internal dissent like the DPJ?

Yeah, Hyogo is next door to Osaka so JRP's Kinki regionalist messages do have resonance there.  Furthermore, as you pointed out, JRP also appeals to urban middle-class professionals and Hyogo is much more urban than the other rural prefectures in the Kinki area.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #841 on: October 22, 2021, 10:55:32 AM »

Why is it that Ishin is so strong in Hyogo as opposed to Kyoto or Wakayama? Is it just that they're an overly urban party or is there some local dynamic I'm missing?

Also, in the event CDP were within range of forming a government (not saying that could happen this election) would they actually be likely to achieve anything or would they end up torn by internal dissent like the DPJ?

Yeah, Hyogo is next door to Osaka so JRP's Kinki regionalist messages do have resonance there.  Furthermore, as you pointed out, JRP also appeals to urban middle-class professionals and Hyogo is much more urban than the other rural prefectures in the Kinki area.
About one-fourth of Hyogo lives in Kobe alone. If I had to guess, that's increased, not decreased with time.
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jaichind
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« Reply #842 on: October 22, 2021, 05:04:48 PM »

Chart on 2009 2012 2014 and 2017 election results
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CascadianIndy
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« Reply #843 on: October 22, 2021, 05:44:58 PM »

Kyodo poll on 東北 (Tohoku) PR bloc

                      2021 poll      2019        2017
LDP                    34.9         40.1         34.6
KP                        5.7         10.8         11.0
PNHK                    1.1          1.8
JRP                       4.7          4.5          3.0
DPP/HP                 2.9          9.7         21.7
CDP                    23.3        16.5         18.1
RS                       2.2          3.9
SDP                     1.5          3.2          2.5
JCP                      7.8          8.2          7.4

LDP-KP               40.6        50.9         45.6
Center-Left+JCP  37.7        41.5         49.7 (if one counts HP as Center-Left)

A little better for LDP-KP relative to 2017 when compared to 北関東 (North Kanto).  Still adjusting for some of 2017 HP PR vote going to JRP 2021 looks more like 2017 than 2019.

May I enquire on how you have the 2017/2019 percentages for PR blocs? Neither English nor Japanese Wikipedia seem to have them.
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Logical
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« Reply #844 on: October 22, 2021, 09:27:51 PM »

Kyodo poll on 東北 (Tohoku) PR bloc

                      2021 poll      2019        2017
LDP                    34.9         40.1         34.6
KP                        5.7         10.8         11.0
PNHK                    1.1          1.8
JRP                       4.7          4.5          3.0
DPP/HP                 2.9          9.7         21.7
CDP                    23.3        16.5         18.1
RS                       2.2          3.9
SDP                     1.5          3.2          2.5
JCP                      7.8          8.2          7.4

LDP-KP               40.6        50.9         45.6
Center-Left+JCP  37.7        41.5         49.7 (if one counts HP as Center-Left)

A little better for LDP-KP relative to 2017 when compared to 北関東 (North Kanto).  Still adjusting for some of 2017 HP PR vote going to JRP 2021 looks more like 2017 than 2019.

May I enquire on how you have the 2017/2019 percentages for PR blocs? Neither English nor Japanese Wikipedia seem to have them.

The ministry of the interior website has the complete results helpfully compiled in spreadsheet.
2017 : https://www.soumu.go.jp/senkyo/senkyo_s/data/shugiin48/
2019 : https://www.soumu.go.jp/senkyo/senkyo_s/data/sangiin25/
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« Reply #845 on: October 23, 2021, 05:21:34 AM »

If you go seat by seat from the Mainichi writeup you get

             District         PR          Total
LDP          192            63          255
KP               7            21            28
JRP            13            20            33
DPP             6              1              7
CDP           61            53          114
RS              0              2              2
SDP            1              0              1
JCP             1             16           17
Ind.            8                             8 (4 pro-LDP 4 pro-Opposition)
--------------------------------------------------
              289            176         465

Much better result for the LDP.  They have the CDP losing a bunch of seats that are considered very likely CDP by CW across the board.   The PR vote is more negative for LDP.  Based on this projection it seems a good part of the JRP PR and DPP PR vote broke for LDP leading to a solid win for the LDP in the district seats.
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jaichind
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« Reply #846 on: October 23, 2021, 05:35:02 AM »

All eyes will now focus on the 静岡(Shizuoka) Upper House by-election this Sunday (山口(Yamaguchi) Upper House by-election is a foregone conclusion.)   It will be LDP vs CDP-DPP backed independent vs JCP.    It is sort of like the VA governor race later in early Nov.  If the LDP wins by less than 3% it will be a morale booster for the Opposition.  If CDP-DPP wins it will be a shock result and hit LDP hard right before the Lower House election.  If the LDP can win by more than 5%-6% it will show that the national environment is still solidly in favor of the LDP and gives them confidence heading in the Lower House elections next Sunday.

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jaichind
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« Reply #847 on: October 23, 2021, 05:45:25 AM »

Campaign poster from 大阪(Osaka) 16th where it is KP vs CDP.  Very restrictive campaign activities and finance laws mean candidates can only give in-person speeches and put up posters in designated areas like this one.

The CDP is unexpectedly close in a race where KP was supposed to win by at least 5%-6%.

The KP candidate poster made sure to note that he is backed by the LDP since he will need the LDP vote to come out in force to get him re-elected.    There is a PNHK candidate in the fray.  I like how her poster also referred to her party as NHK party.  It seems that PNHK changed their party name so many times that even they gave up trying to print the official name of the party and just go with NHK Party even though they are really the anti-NHK party but I guess they figure everyone knows that already.  PNHK get the protest vote but will cut into the KP vote by winning some disgruntled LDP voters.
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jaichind
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« Reply #848 on: October 23, 2021, 06:01:12 AM »

Various other posters from other districts

京都(Kyoto) 1st (LDP vs JCP vs JRP) - JCP candidate make sure to point out that he is the United Opposition candidate so get gets the CDP vote



京都(Kyoto) 2nd (LDP vs DPP vs JCP vs RS) - DPP expected to win despite opposition split



大阪(Osaka) 4th (LDP vs JRP vs CDP vs JCP) - CDP and JCP both running turned this into a LDP vs JRP battle.  JRP expected to flip this seat



大阪(Osaka) 5h (KP vs JCP vs RS vs independent) - independent is the wife of the owner of the now infamous Moritomo Gakuen school that allegedly got Abe's wife to help them get around zoning regulations.  Should be easy KP win



岐阜(Gifu) 2nd (LDP vs DPP vs JCP) - easy LDP



滋賀(Shiga) 1st (LDP vs DPP) - unexpectedly close due to opposition consolidation. LDP should pull it out.


滋賀(Shiga) 3rd (LDP vs RS vs JRP vs JCP) - RS candidate is a CDP MP that was expelled due to a scandal and then joined RS and moved to this district.  Opposition split means easy LDP win.
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jaichind
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« Reply #849 on: October 23, 2021, 09:46:36 AM »

Note these election posters very prominently highlight the name of the candidate more so than the party.  Aside from trying to rope in non-aligned independent voters, there is a practical reason that the voter has to write the name of the candidate on the ballot.

Here are pictures of ballots that are going to be voted as part of early voting.  This voter is voting for the JRP candidate in the 大阪(Osaka) 13th district where you have to write down the name of the candidate and


voting for JRP on the PR ballot where you have to write down the name of the party.
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