Japan 2021 Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections (July) and Lower House Election Oct 31st
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jaichind
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« Reply #425 on: July 18, 2021, 06:01:54 AM »

兵庫(Hyōgo) governor election called for LDP-JRP candidate as soon as voting is over.  Suga wins one.  Will be interesting to see what the projected winning margin is.
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jaichind
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« Reply #426 on: July 18, 2021, 06:05:18 AM »

NHK exit poll for 兵庫(Hyōgo) governor election seems to be

LDP-JRP                              46
LDP local rebel-CDP-DPP      34
JCP                                      9

It seems the JRP vote came through for LDP-JRP


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jaichind
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« Reply #427 on: July 18, 2021, 06:08:05 AM »

A separate media exit poll had

LDP voters
LDP-JRP                                 48
LDP local rebel-CDP-DPP         40

JRP voters
LDP-JRP                                 82
LDP local rebel-CDP-DPP           8

Independents
LDP-JRP                                 40
LDP local rebel-CDP-DPP         38

JRP vote came out for LDP-JRP and the anti-LDP independent bloc did not break for LDP local rebel-CDP-DPP.

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jaichind
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« Reply #428 on: July 18, 2021, 06:41:00 AM »
« Edited: July 18, 2021, 06:55:06 AM by jaichind »

NHK  兵庫(Hyōgo) governor election exit poll party ID (with change from exit polls in 2017 governor race)

LDP       32 (-6)
KP          4 (-1)
JRP       16 (+10)
DPP        1
CDP        7 (+1) (compared to 2017 DP)
JCP         4

JRP surge continues.  JRP will have its best performance in the non-Osaka Kinki area since 2014.

One can argue that this election is more about a JRP victory than Suga victory.
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jaichind
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« Reply #429 on: July 18, 2021, 08:53:46 AM »

兵庫(Hyōgo) governor election (52% of the vote counted)

LDP-JRP                           42.9%
LDP local rebel-CDP-DPP   36.0%
JCP                                 11.0%
independent                      7.7% (anti-tax, decentralization, libertarian)
minor                                2.3% 
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jaichind
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« Reply #430 on: July 18, 2021, 09:17:05 AM »

兵庫(Hyōgo) governor election (83% of the vote counted)

LDP-JRP                           45.6%
LDP local rebel-CDP-DPP   33.7%
JCP                                 10.4%
independent                      7.9% (anti-tax, decentralization, libertarian)
minor                                2.4%

Mostly converging toward exit polls.
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Mike88
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« Reply #431 on: July 18, 2021, 09:55:00 AM »

Suga will run again, like you posted jaichind. But, who could be his possible successor in the LDP? I've read somewhere that Shinjirō Koizumi could be a possible future leader, but that Abe could return again, but I think that's just wishful thinking.
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jaichind
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« Reply #432 on: July 18, 2021, 10:45:46 AM »

兵庫(Hyōgo) governor election all votes counted

LDP-JRP                           46.9%
LDP local rebel-CDP-DPP   32.8%
JCP                                 10.1%
independent                      7.7% (anti-tax, decentralization, libertarian)
minor                                2.5%
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jaichind
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« Reply #433 on: July 18, 2021, 10:55:25 AM »

Suga will run again, like you posted jaichind. But, who could be his possible successor in the LDP? I've read somewhere that Shinjirō Koizumi could be a possible future leader, but that Abe could return again, but I think that's just wishful thinking.

Well, if Suga is going to run in the next LDP Prez election in Sept then we can infer that
a) Lower House election most likely will be in Oct since if the Lower House election results might force Suga not to be able to run
b) Abe will not run since he will not come out against his own protégé

小泉進次郎(Koizumi Shinjirō)  polls well with non-LDP voters but he does not have the tenure to be a serious candidate.  Early 2030s will be his time.  He will be in his early 50s and will have several LDP Prez election cycles to get in to be come LDP leader.

Serious opponents of Suga which could run against him or run after he is moves on would be

石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru) - long time LDP heavyweight and leader of the Ishiba faction.  Did poorly in the 2020 LDP Prez race which hurt his image so badly that he might not try for a while, if ever, at becoming LDP Prez

岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio) - leader of Kishida faction and ran a pretty good campaign in 2020 LDP Prez race.  Almost certain to run

河野太郎(Kōno Tarō) - current Minister for COVID-19 and not a leader of a faction but known as a LDP maverick.  His father was LDP Prez in 1993-1995 and he ran in 2009 as a Young Turk and lost badly.  He is not a leader of a faction which is a weakness but is popular with both LDP voters and non-LDP voters.  Both Abe and Suga are hostile to him and both will work behind the scenes to try to stop him from becoming LDP Prez including perhaps Abe running.
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Logical
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« Reply #434 on: July 18, 2021, 12:32:30 PM »

In other news, the Yokohama mayor election is turning into a live trainwreck lol. There were 9 candidates running, which includes former cabinet ministers and governors. Today the media reports that former governor and current JRP Councilor for Kanagawa 松沢成文 (Shigefumi Matsuzawa) will throw his hat into the ring as well. Matsuzawa was last elected in 2019 and his term expires in 2025. He will have to resign his seat to run but there won't be a byelection in October. According to the law, separate byelections for the House of Councilors are to be held only if at least a quarter of the seats are vacant, and as there are 8 seats in total for Kanagawa the byelection will be folded into the regularly scheduled election next summer. 5 candidates will be elected instead of the usual 4 ,however, the 5th placed candidate will win only a 3 year term while the 1st-4th placed candidates will win a regular 6 year term.
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jaichind
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« Reply #435 on: July 18, 2021, 02:21:42 PM »
« Edited: July 18, 2021, 07:59:36 PM by jaichind »

In other news, the Yokohama mayor election is turning into a live trainwreck lol. There were 9 candidates running, which includes former cabinet ministers and governors. Today the media reports that former governor and current JRP Councilor for Kanagawa 松沢成文 (Shigefumi Matsuzawa) will throw his hat into the ring as well. Matsuzawa was last elected in 2019 and his term expires in 2025. He will have to resign his seat to run but there won't be a byelection in October. According to the law, separate byelections for the House of Councilors are to be held only if at least a quarter of the seats are vacant, and as there are 8 seats in total for Kanagawa the byelection will be folded into the regularly scheduled election next summer. 5 candidates will be elected instead of the usual 4 ,however, the 5th placed candidate will win only a 3 year term while the 1st-4th placed candidates will win a regular 6 year term.

You beat me to this as I was going to write about this tomorrow.  The reason it is such a mess is because of

a) The pro-LDP incumbent mayor is already 75 and past the 3 term rule the LDP have but she insist on running so the LDP is not backing her.
b) The Integrated Resorts(IR) (casino) plan are still slowing moving forward.  The national LDP/Suga are for the IR plan but the local LDP are split.

So the candidate are

1) Pro-LDP incumbent running w/o LDP support - backs IR plan
2) anti-IR LDP ex-MP
3) pro-IR LDP MP
4) 2 separate anti-IR pro-CDP candidates.  One will run with CDP support and the other will run as a de facto CDP rebel
5) former 神奈川(Kanagawa) governor and now JRP MP 松沢成文 (Shigefumi Matsuzawa).  He was a DPJ MP and then pro-DPJ governor of 神奈川(Kanagawa) but shifted to the far right after he gave up his governor role and then became a YP -> PFG -> JRP Upper House MP.  
6) anti-IR animal rights activist
7) former 長野(Nagano) governor 田中康夫(Tanaka Yasuo).  He was a fairly controversial pro-DPJ governor of 長野(Nagano) (he was elected in 2000 but had to run for re-election in 2002 which he won due to prefecture assembly voted him out in a vote of no confiencence) but then joined up with LDP postal rebel NPN and became a NPN MP, first Upper House and then Lower House.   After NPN disappeared he joined up with JRP.
8 ) some lawyer - I am sure there is some backstory but I am to lazy to look it up

Not clear what is the position of the two former governors are on the IR project but this is a subject they cannot dodge.

And the JCP did not get into the act yet.  I suspect CDP will try to get JCP to back their candidate.  I suspect all these candidates in the fray will cancel each other out and the elderly incumbent will end up winning.

I did not know about the rule on by-elections.  Last two cycles due to inability of the Center-Left and JCP to coordinate the 神奈川(Kanagawa) Upper house elections are always: 1 LDP, 1 KP, 1 Right (either JRP or pro-LDP), 1 Center-Left even though the votes are there for Center-Left + JCP to win 2 out of 4 seats.  If you are pessimistic CDP next few years in  神奈川(Kanagawa) then this rule is good news.  In 2022 Upper House race the split will clearly be Right 3 Left 2 and in 2025 the extra Left winner will have an incumbency edge and clearly lead to Right 2 (1 LDP 1 KP) Left 2.  If you are optimistic about CDP in 神奈川(Kanagawa) next few years this rule prevents CDP-JCP from taking down 1 of the 3 Right MPs in 神奈川(Kanagawa) up for re-election in 2022.
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Logical
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« Reply #436 on: July 18, 2021, 07:43:02 PM »

According to the law, separate byelections for the House of Councilors are to be held only if at least a quarter of the seats are vacant, and as there are 8 seats in total for Kanagawa the byelection will be folded into the regularly scheduled election next summer.
A little correction for this. I was curious why there was a byelection for Saitama in 2019 despite there being just 1 vacancy so I looked online. A separate byelection will only be held if more than 25% of seats from the same class is vacant. The only constituencies where this rule requires 2 vacancies to trigger a byelection are those that elects 4 or more members each time (Tokyo, Kanagawa, Saitama, Aichi and Osaka). The seat that was vacant in Saitama was from the class of 2016 (3 members), starting from 2019 Saitama elects 4 members per class.
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jaichind
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« Reply #437 on: July 19, 2021, 06:29:29 AM »

PR voting intentions has LDP (green) bottoming out at around 35 while KP(orange) rising slightly to 6.

CDP (Light blue) steady at around 14-15 while both JRP (light green) and JCP (red) rising to around 7.

The vast majority of undecides (grey) has historically broke against LDP.

These numbers seems to imply LDP-KP will end up around 44-45 which is a small net swing against them relative to 2017 when the breakup of the 2017 HP should see LDP-KP gain votes.

These polling should see CDP above 20 and closer to 25 and both JRP and JCP above 10.  One of these 3 will have a shock performance that takes them well above these numbers but I am not sure which one. 

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Lachi
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« Reply #438 on: July 19, 2021, 06:50:26 AM »

New Mainichi poll conducted by SSRC

No party 39

LDP 28
CDP 10
JCP 7
JRP 6
KP 4
DPP 1
SDP 1
Reiwa 1
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jaichind
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« Reply #439 on: July 19, 2021, 07:13:09 AM »

New Mainichi poll conducted by SSRC

No party 39

LDP 28
CDP 10
JCP 7
JRP 6
KP 4
DPP 1
SDP 1
Reiwa 1


Note this is party support and nor PR voting intentions.   LDP party support is usually a couple of points below their PR voting intentions so this result is very bad for LDP.  Same poll has Suga cabinet approval/disapproval at 30/62.  

So far the average Suga cabinet approval/disapproval is around 32/51 so this poll for now is an outlier.  How bad for Suga it gets I guess we will see in the next week or two.
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jaichind
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« Reply #440 on: July 19, 2021, 07:52:50 AM »

FNN published a post-Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections Lower House election projections by political analyst  松田馨 (Matsuda Kaoru)


            District       PR          Total
LDP          158         61           219
KP               7         21             28
JRP            11         21             32
DPP             6           1               7
CDP           97         53            150
RS               0           2               2
SDP             1           0               1
JCP              2         17             19
Others         7                            7   
Total         289      176           465



The PR seat count seems to imply PR vote share of something like

LDP   30%
KP     12%
JRP   13%
DPP    3%
CDP   26%
RS      3%
SDP    1%
JCP   10%


KP at 7 seats on FPTP means they would have lost 北海道(Hokkaido) 10th and failed to win 広島(Hiroshima) 3rd which it extracted from LDP to swap out 神奈川(Kanagawa) which it lost to CDP in 2017 and looks unlikely to win back.

JCP at 2 seats on FPTP means that in addition to 沖縄(Okinawa) 1st JCP also won either 京都(Kyoto) 1st or 長野(Nagano) 4th.  京都(Kyoto) 1st is more likely since JRP is running there and could split up enough of the anti-JCP vote for JCP to sneak through.

DPP at 6 seats FPTP seems right and pretty matches my projection and also CW.

CDP at 97 seats FPTP is pretty much at the outer edge of what is considered CW.

Independents at 7 seats given the other projections has to be at last 6 pro-Opposition perhaps all 7.   There are at least 6 pro-CDP or pro-DPP independents that are almost certain to win.   

Note that all pre-campaign projections of election results tend to be anti-LDP.  As the election gets closer the quality of candidates will play a greater role and that will be better for LDP.  Also print media outlets tend to spin projections in an anti-LDP direction boast their circulation since no one wants to read about a boring LDP landslide victory.
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jaichind
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« Reply #441 on: July 19, 2021, 08:27:36 AM »

Majority milestones

233   Simple majority
244   Majority on all committees
261   Gets all committee chairmanships

Usually a majority is considered somewhat workable if the ruling bloc can get majority on all committees but is not really considered solidly workable unless it gets all committee chairmanships.  FNN's 松田馨 (Matsuda Kaoru) projection of LDP-KP at 247 barely gives it a majority on all committees but does not give it all committee chairmanships.  

In 2017 LDP plus various pro-LDP independents that joined LDP after the election got 283 which meant it had solidly workable majority all by itself.  Now if this projection comes to pass at best it will need KP to barely get to some sort of workable majority.
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jaichind
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« Reply #442 on: July 19, 2021, 11:57:48 AM »

The two significant elections in Aug are election for mayor of 仙台市(Sendai) on 8/1 and for mayor of 横浜市(Yokohama) 8/22. 

横浜市(Yokohama) as mentioned already is already a 9 way battle (with at least 5-6 heavyweight candidates) and there might be more candidates to jump in.

仙台市(Sendai) race is pretty simple.  It is the pro-Opposition incumbent taking on a pro-LDP challenger.  The pro-LDP challenger was a former MP but she is really a lightweight.  She lost her seat pretty badly in 2012 and was elected on the PR slate because all the other LDP candidate in her section won their seat leaving her to be elected on the PR slate despite being blown out.  LDP saw this weakness and did not re-nominate her in 2014.  So this race will most likely be a blowout victory for the pro-Opposition incumbent. 
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xelas81
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« Reply #443 on: July 19, 2021, 12:15:43 PM »

More bad news from Olympics front

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/19/olympic-sponsor-toyota-withdraws-games-tv-commercials.html

https://apnews.com/article/composer-keigo-oyamada-bullying-2020-tokyo-olympics-674cac7836e317f9926a94ed93fee884
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Logical
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« Reply #444 on: July 20, 2021, 07:50:03 AM »
« Edited: July 20, 2021, 07:57:58 AM by Logical »

FNN published a post-Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections Lower House election projections by political analyst  松田馨 (Matsuda Kaoru)
He clarified on his twitter account that his projection has the second JCP FPTP seat in Tokyo-12th beating out KP. KP to lose Hokkaido-10th but win Hiroshima-3rd. I find the first unlikely.
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jaichind
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« Reply #445 on: July 20, 2021, 09:18:37 AM »

FNN published a post-Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections Lower House election projections by political analyst  松田馨 (Matsuda Kaoru)
He clarified on his twitter account that his projection has the second JCP FPTP seat in Tokyo-12th beating out KP. KP to lose Hokkaido-10th but win Hiroshima-3rd. I find the first unlikely.

Wow.  I find it hard to believe JCP can win in a 1-on-1 race, even if it is against KP.  沖縄(Okinawa) 1st is possible only because LDP and JRP split the anti-JCP vote.  I agree with you.  I find it hard to believe that KP loses 北海道(Hokkaido) 10th but somehow wins 広島(Hiroshima) 3rd.  My current projection has it other way around. 

Usually these projections come with a seat by seat projection.  I was not able to find it.  Were you able to find it ?
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Logical
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« Reply #446 on: July 20, 2021, 09:49:44 AM »
« Edited: July 20, 2021, 09:56:23 AM by Logical »

FNN published a post-Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections Lower House election projections by political analyst  松田馨 (Matsuda Kaoru)
He clarified on his twitter account that his projection has the second JCP FPTP seat in Tokyo-12th beating out KP. KP to lose Hokkaido-10th but win Hiroshima-3rd. I find the first unlikely.

Wow.  I find it hard to believe JCP can win in a 1-on-1 race, even if it is against KP.  沖縄(Okinawa) 1st is possible only because LDP and JRP split the anti-JCP vote.  I agree with you.  I find it hard to believe that KP loses 北海道(Hokkaido) 10th but somehow wins 広島(Hiroshima) 3rd.  My current projection has it other way around.  

Usually these projections come with a seat by seat projection.  I was not able to find it.  Were you able to find it ?

I do not see any seat by seat by projection. However, he answered questions about the prediction on twitter.



In the accompanying article he also expects that turnout will reach a record low (~50%), but this is driven by the core LDP vote staying home. It also says that the LDP is polling abysmally in Tokyo and Osaka (anti olympics fever?) so I think that's why he made that bold call.
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jaichind
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« Reply #447 on: July 20, 2021, 04:39:14 PM »


I think Japan already spent $20 billion on the Olympics.  At this stage Suga has no choice to double down on getting some of this back.   There is some risk on this approach but most likely he has no choice.  One way or another most of this $20 billion can be viewed as lost.
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jaichind
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« Reply #448 on: July 21, 2021, 05:41:04 AM »

I did not know about this rule, but if  the winner 横浜市(Yokohama) mayor election wins less than 25% of the vote then the election will be voided and a re-run need to take place.  There is now a reasonable chance that may take place as we are up to 10 candidates (and 5-6 are what I consider heavyweight candidates) with more coming.
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jaichind
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« Reply #449 on: July 21, 2021, 05:44:46 AM »

A recent 横浜市(Yokohama) poll shows over 70% are opposed to the IR (casino plan) with 52.78% very opposed and 17.89 opposed.   KP will play a key role here.  KP is controlled by the KP Married Women's wing and they are for sure going to be against casinos due to concerns about crime and their husbands losing all their money at the casino.
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