Japan 2021 Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections (July) and Lower House Election Oct 31st

[jaichind]

Candidate map for LDP-KP.

Things are simpler here as given the strength of LDP candidate quality they have solid candidates pretty much everywhere.  

1) KP (pink) will run in 9 seats.   They swapped 神奈川(Kanagawa) 6th which they unexpected lost in 2017 and think they are unlikely to regain in 2021 with 広島(Hiroshima) 3rd with LDP which I suspect they will lose as well.

2) Dark Blue are where there are two LDP candidates from two different factions.  In some LDP will have both of them run as independents and the winner be retroactively made the LDP candidate and in others the LDP will back one of the two and the other most likely will run as a LDP rebel.  Every election we have 2-3 of these cases.  So far the number of problem seats for LDP seem larger than normal which is a bad sign.  Good news for LDP is they have another month or so to try to work out a deal in some of the seats.  In most of them I still expect the LDP to win since almost all of them are safe LDP seats so these rebellions are not problematic by themselves  but it is more about the number of these rebellions shows the unease within the LDP ranks that is the bigger issue.

3) White are where LDP has no candidate.  This is either because of a last minute LDP incumbent retirement in a relatively safe LDP seat (神奈川(Kanagawa) 3rd, 石川(Ishikawa) 1st, 島根(Shimane) 2nd) or last minute LDP incumbent retires because he is almost certain to lose (埼玉(Saitama) 10th,  東京(Tokyo) 9th, 東京(Tokyo) 15th) or where the Opposition incumbent is so strong LDP is struggling to get someone to run(栃木(Tochigi) 2nd, 長崎(Nagasaki) 1st.)  The latter two types are especially hurtful for LDP because without a quality candidate to keep them close would free up opposition resources to contest elsewhere to take down LDP in marginal seats.  The LDP will most likely come up with someone but the quality gap between them and the incumbents will be large.

4) Grey are the LDP incumbent has resigned from LDP due to scandal but are still looking to contest.  The LDP are likely to lose these seats if the ex-LDP incumbent does not run so the LDP are looking at how to handle them.  Either bring them back as LDP candidate or allow them to run as a pro-LDP independent and retroactively nominate them if they win as the voters would have "cleansed" them of their scandal.

1. Am I colorblind because I don't think I spot any dark blue.

2. I can see a few more LDP retirements in the next few weeks given how old some of their veteran MPs are.

Opps .... I meant dark green and not dark blue.  Also there has already been a bunch of LDP retirements and for some of the the LDP did get a replacement candidate of good quality but clearly not comparable to the incumbent.  The white ones are the seats the LDP failed to get anyone to run for them yet.  I am sure they will come up with something.

[jaichind]

You have said that the Tokyo prefecture election is very prestigious. I know that this is probably a stretch but do you know what was the reaction to JCP placing second in the 1997 election?

I went back to take a look at 1997 and what led to the JCP overperformance.   I compared JCP performance in 1997 to 1993 and 2001.

            Contest   Won    Vote share
1993         42       13         13.53%
1997         44       26         21.35%
2001         44       15         15.64%

I looked into why this surge took place by looking at the results in 1993 1996 and 2001 district by district.  I concluded the JCP surge in 1996 was due to the temporary collapse of a non-KP non-JCP alternative to LDP.  

In 1993 the rising JNP and declining JSP formed the main non-KP non-JCP alternative to LDP and JCP was kept at 13 seats and 13.53%.

In 1997 JSP has completely collapsed while the NFP (which was the merger of JNP KP JRP (Ozawa's LDP splinter) DSP) had just splintered with KP splitting out and was becoming discredited while DPJ was very new.  So the result was JSP NFP and DPJ split the non-KP non-JCP anti-LDP space with a good part of this vote going to JCP as a part of anti-LDP tactical voting  since none of JSP NFN and DPJ were viewed as not viable.  What also helped JCP are these parties (JSP NPF and DPJ) also cut into each other's votes and allowed JCP to win some seats.  As a result JCP surged to 26 seats on 21.35% of the vote

In 2001 NFP was gone and the Ozawa's LP was nowhere in Tokyo but DPJ had emerged as the main non-JCP non-KP alterative to LDP.  As a result this bloc of voters went to DPJ and JCP fell to 15 seats and 15.64% of the vote.

If that is the case then the shock of JCP's perfoamcne would be significant if there were no sign of a viable non-KP non-JCP anti-LDP force.  By 1998 Upper House elections DPJ clearly have emerged to take that space since NPF already imploded with a rump Ozawa LP taking its place.

BTW, in 2021 the JCP performance was

            Contest   Won    Vote share
2021         31       19         13.57%

JCP contested seats at 31 is a lot less than what it is used to contest due to CDP-JCP alliance.  JCP vacated more seats for CDP than CDP vacated seat for JCP.   And for some seats the CDP "cheated" in the sense that in 2017 the old DPJ candidate defected to TPFA so in those districts TPFA was the new DPJ and not CDP.  So CDP not running there leaving JCP to face LDP and TPFA that has the old DPJ/Rengo vote is not the same thing as JCP vacating a seat for CDP.  The alliance did clearly help JCP.  In the seats where CDP clearly inherited the old DPJ vote AND vacated the seat for JCP the JCP won a vote share around the same as it performed at in 1997.  Looking at the results, had CDP-JCP not had an alliance I figure JCP would have won 15 seats on 14.5%.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-08/tokyo-olympics-to-exclude-spectators-in-city-as-virus-resurges

"Tokyo Olympics to Ban Spectators in City as Virus Resurges"

As expected.

With no spectators now Suga has to gamble on

a) Lots of Japanese watching Olympics coverage
b) Japan captures a lot of medals (especially gold medals)

If that takes place I think Suga still retrieves some political capital out of this fiasco

[jaichind]

The next trial of strength is the July 18th governor election for 兵庫(Hyōgo).  兵庫(Hyōgo) has historically, like next door 大阪(Osaka) has had an anti-LDP lean.  That change in 2012 with the rise of JRP which ate into the anti-LDP vote leading to the even split of the anti-LDP vote between the Center-Left and JRP.  This has resulted in 兵庫(Hyōgo) becoming one of the safest prefectures for the LDP.

The 5 term incumbent pro-LDP governor is retiring but that has led to an open civil war within LDP.  A significant bloc of the 兵庫(Hyōgo) prefecture LDP caucus have split off from the LDP and backed as former lieutenant governor as a opponent to the official pro-LDP candidate.  This rebellion seems to have the backing of the retiring governor.  This sets up the race into a 3 way race between the pro-LDP candidate, LDP rebel (with the backing of CDP-DPP) and JCP candidate.  In order to beef up its chances the official LDP managed to get the JRP to back the pro-LDP candidate.  This sort of triggered a war of words between the retiring governor and the 大阪(Osaka) JRP governor.  In a recent speech the retiring 兵庫(Hyōgo)  governor in response to a surge of COVID-19 cases in 大阪(Osaka)  threatened to "be just like Trump" and build a wall between 大阪(Osaka) and 兵庫(Hyōgo) to cut off the virus.  He also referred to the need of an "independent"  兵庫(Hyōgo) as an indirect slat at the more powerful influential and JRP controlled 大阪(Osaka).

Anyway I suspect the race is now neck-to-neck between LDP-JRP and LDP rebel-CDP-DPP and election night two weeks from now will be pretty exciting.  

Latest surveys seems to indicate that he official LDP-JRP candidate is slightly ahead of the LDP rebel-CDP-DPP candidate.  It seems a united front of official LDP and JRP is able to see off this LDP rebellion.  Still it seems close and there could be an upset a week from now.

[jaichind]

Latest Morning Consulting poll still has Suga at 29% which makes him last.

[jaichind]

MBS poll for 兵庫(Hyōgo) governor

LDP-JRP (red) candidate slightly ahead of LDP rebel-CDP-DPP (blue) with undecided (purple) well above 40%


LDP-JRP candidate has small edge over LDP rebel-CDP-DPP with LDP voters but split down the middle with KP voters.  CDP DPP voters mostly favor LDP rebel-CDP-DPP candidate.  JRP by huge margins support LDP-JRP candidate and JCP voters mostly support JCP candidate (yellow). Critical independent bloc seems to be evenly split between the two top candidate with large number of undecided.

[jaichind]

Now that the 2021 Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections is over, that ends the 2018 Dec to 2021 July cycle of prefecture level elections.  The next cycle will start in Dec 2022 with 茨城(Ibaraki). 

In this cycle KP ran a total of 204 candidate and all 204 candidates won.  So KP is 204-0 in this cycle.  In fact KP has not lost a prefecture level election since it formed an alliance with LDP in the late 1990s.  This is not true for KP backed independents.  In this cycle KP backed 8 independents and 7 of them won.  6 of them are in 長野(Nagano) where in the early 2000s a LDP civil war at the prefecture level led a handful of LDP MLAs to become independents who then aligned with KP.  Not willing to anger the local LDP the KP took them on as pro-KP independents.  KP recommended these pro-KP independents but did not go all out to campaign for them and they mostly had to win by adding their personal vote and whatever KP vote they can get.  They then caucus with KP when they enter the prefecture assembly.   In 長野(Nagano) 5 out of 6 pro-KP independents won.

[jaichind]

Mayor race for 奈良市 (Nara City) today.  奈良(Nara) is in 近畿(Kinki) area so JRP tend to be fairly strong here although nowhere as strong as in 大阪(Osaka).

The non-partisan "consensus"  incumbent defeated a challenge from JRP in a very splintered field where LDP KP CDP DPP all pretty much did not endorse anyone which was implicitly backing the incumbent.   The result was

Non-partisan incumbent      43.3%
JRP                                   27.4%
JRP rebel                           12.8%
Independent Left                 8.4%
JCP                                     8.0%

What is interesting are the exit polls and the comparison to 2017 exit poll from 奈良市 (Nara City) mayor race and 2012 奈良(Nara) 1st district which maps to  奈良市 (Nara City).

2021
 

2017


2012


If you group them by party support

                       2012      2017       2021
LDP                    29          33          29
KP                       5            7            6
JRP                    16            7          16
DPJ/DP/CDP       17            7            6
JCP                     5             7           8

DPJ was the ruling back in 2012 so more Center-Left voters identified as DPJ in 2012 where as in 2017 and 2021 they they tend to identify as independents.  This numbers indicate that JRP is seeing another surge in support ahead of  the Lower House elections while LDP dropping to 2012 levels of support.  JCP is also stronger than in 2012 and 2017.  2012 and 2017 are fairly bad years for JCP.  These exit poll results if extrapolated nationwide seems to indicate a surge for JRP in the  近畿(Kinki)  region while LDP support falling to 2012 levels which would imply a significant loss of LDP seats if the Center-Left opposition can stay united with JCP.

[jaichind]

https://www.yomiuri.co.jp/column/politics03/20210708-OYT8T50058/

Yomiuri points out that the LDP have not come up with any candidates for 神奈川(Kanagawa) 1st, 奈良(Nara) 3rd, and 大阪(Osaka) 8th where the sitting LDP MP have left LDP early 2021 for being caught violating COVID-19 lockdown curfew.  I think the original plan was for all 3 to run for re-election as independents and then after they win and "purified" by the voters retroactively nominated by the LDP.

Now there is pressure for the LDP to take them back now.  The main problem is that it seems that CDP is likely to flip 神奈川(Kanagawa) 1st and JRP is likely to flip  大阪(Osaka) 8th.  If these 3 MPs run for re-election as independents then they cannot "come back to life" via dual listing in the LDP PR slate.   奈良(Nara) 3rd,seems safe for LDP one way or another but the situation with the other two seats are making the local LDP and the LDP MPs in question anxious.  Of course if they are readmitted as LDP candidates the CDP will go all out to frame LDP a party with double standards.

[jaichind]

兵庫(Hyōgo) governor polls has 3 of them with the race neck-to-neck and 2 of them having LDP-JRP candidate well ahead of the LDP rebel-CDP-DPP candidate.

[jaichind]

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/sapporo-news/20210713/7000036492.html

Scandal on the CDP side.

Current MP CDP candidate for 北海道(Hokkaido) 4th 本多平直(Honda Hiranao)  just had his membership in CDP suspended for a year which most likely means he will not be able to run for CDP.   It seems what took place is that a month ago in an internal CDP policy debate he voiced opposition to laws against sex between and adult and minors.  He indicated that "if I had a concentual relationship with a 14 year old that would be illegal, that does not make sense."  He is also married to the current CDP MP from 新潟(Niigata) who seems to be silent in all this although she was present in the CDP meeting where her husband's suspension was announced and she seems to indicate disbelief at this decision.

He was a DPJ MP in 埼玉(Saitama) but was defeated in 2014.  When CDP was formed in 2017 he joined CDP and ran in 北海道(Hokkaido) 4th where he lost but won enough votes to to elected in the PR slate.  This time around he was expected to flip this seat for CDP and win outright.  Now there is a good chance that the CDP will miss out on this flip.    It could be CDP plays the same game as LDP and let him run as an independent and retroactively nominate him if he wins and is "purified" by the voters.

[jaichind]

Latest JX PR voting intentions poll

LDP      30.2 (+1.1)
KP         5.6  (-0.7)
JRP        7.4 (+0.5)
DPP       1.7  (--)
CDP     19.9  (-1.3)
RS         1.1  (-0.7)
JCP      10.9 (+1.5)

More KP PR voters hiding out as LDP PR voters.  Clear shift from CDP and RS to JCP.  Might be partly influenced by the perception that CDP and RS underperformed in the  Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections while JCP mostly survived the TPFA surge.  JRP's vote share in the Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections ended up being respectable so they also gained a bit. 

[jaichind]

Table on 兵庫(Hyōgo) governor election.  It shows that national LDP and JRP are backing one candidate while the local rebel LDP are joining forces with CDP and DPP to back another candidate.  The core issue is the local LDP, just like the 大阪(Osaka) LDP, see the JRP as their main enemy while the national LDP see CDP as their main enemy and might need JRP post-election to form a stable majority if LDP-KP failed to do so.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Do the CDP and DPP normally back the LDP in JRP-LDP elections?

[jaichind]

https://abcnews.go.com/Sports/wireStory/cases-surge-month-high-tokyo-week-olympics-78858035

"Cases surge to 6-month high in Tokyo a week before Olympics"

Not off to a good start for Suga. 

[jaichind]

Do the CDP and DPP normally back the LDP in JRP-LDP elections?

Yes in local elections.  But up until now that only has been in 大阪(Osaka).  This is the first time that this dynamic has shifted to outside of 大阪(Osaka).  Also in 大阪(Osaka), the local LDP and JCP hate JRP so much they LDP-CDP-DPP-JCP often form alliances to take on JRP and usually end in defeat as JRP could paint those contests are "Tokyoite parties" vs a local 大阪(Osaka) based JRP.  Also understand that in 兵庫(Hyōgo)  the local LDP is in shambles with all sorts of splits with some backing JRP but he mainstream but rebel faction backing the LDP local rebel-CDP-DPP candidate and even other factions being neutral.

[FredLindq]

”Japan, Yomiuri poll:

Legislative election (Proportional Representation seats)

LDP (Conservative): 54.2% (+20.9)
CDP (Centre-left): 13.9% (-6.0)
Komei (Centre-right): 8.3% (-4.2)
...

+/- vs. 2017 election

Fieldwork: 9-11 July 2021
Sample size: 1,068”

Any comments on this poll?! LDP did as I understod badly in the local elections?!

[jaichind]

”Japan, Yomiuri poll:

Legislative election (Proportional Representation seats)

LDP (Conservative): 54.2% (+20.9)
CDP (Centre-left): 13.9% (-6.0)
Komei (Centre-right): 8.3% (-4.2)
...

+/- vs. 2017 election

Fieldwork: 9-11 July 2021
Sample size: 1,068”

Any comments on this poll?! LDP did as I understod badly in the local elections?!

The poll is Suga cabinet approval/disapproval 37/53

PR vote

LDP       39
KP          6
JRP         6
DPP        2
CDP      10
RS          1
JCP         6



The representation of the poll by that tweet is very misleading.  The Suga cabinet approval is at 37/53 indicate that most of the undecided will not vote LDP or KP.  But the tweet just normalized all the undecided on a pro rated basis which is a big mistake.  

Also Yomiuri which is very pro-LDP tend to have a LDP house effect as well.  For Yomiuri I usually just add LDP + KP and just assume that is what LDP-KP will get (you have to factor in the hidden KP PR voter that hides out as a LDP PR voter.)  So this poll mostly implies LDP-KP PR vote at around 45 which is a bit higher than other polls but not that much higher.

[jaichind]

Latest Jiji poll pushes  average Suga cabinet approval/disapproval to a record low



Same Jiji poll now has Suga as best PM at 3.9%

LDP 石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru)          14.9%    leader of Ishiba faction - not very popular with MPs
LDP 河野太郎(Kōno Tarō)              14.5%    COVID-19 minister - solid shot to be next LDP leader
LDP 小泉進次郎(Koizumi Shinjirō)    8.8%    son of Koizumi - too young to be a serious replacement
LDP Abe                                      8.4%    there are more talk of an Abe return
DPJ 枝野幸男(Edano Yukio)            5.0%
LDP Suga                                    3.9%

Within LDP supporters

LDP Abe                                    20.4%
LDP 河野太郎(Kōno Tarō)             17.5%
LDP 石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru)          14.9%
LDP Suga                                    8.6%

It seems clear that Koizumi junior support all comes from non-LDP voters.  LDP voters tend to go with tenure and like I said Koizumi junior is just too young to be taken seriously as a PM candidate. His turn will come a decade from now.

If it seems Suga is leading LDP to defeat there might be pressure for him to step down and delay the Lower House election until after the mid Sept 2021 LDP Prez race where he will not run.  If so the anti-Kono forces might push Abe to run as the only candidate to defeat Kono.

[jaichind]

Mainichi poll just has Suga cabinet approval/disapproval at the edge of danger zone of 30(-4)/62(+7).  The tradition is that once a PM cabinet approval falls below 30 for a period it will never rise above 30 again.

Suga also came out saying he will run for re-election in Sept LDP Prez race.  I guess he wants to send a message to those coup plotters in the LDP that he will not go without a fight and that maneuvers behind the scene to get him to step down will not work and that anti-Suga campaign will require a candidate(or more) to come out to challenge in openly in the LDP Prez race.

So the die is cast.  There are now going to be a two front war.  A front for Suga to retain power in the general Lower House elections by LDP-KP winning a workable majority and a another front for Suga to beat back is opponents in the LDP.

[jaichind]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/olympics/2021/07/17/tokyo-olympic-village-resident-tests-positive-covid-19/8000632002/

"Tokyo 2020 organizers report first positive COVID-19 case at Olympic Village"

https://www.cbssports.com/olympics/news/ugandan-weightlifter-goes-missing-during-training-camp-in-japan-for-tokyo-olympics/

"Ugandan weightlifter goes missing during training camp in Japan for Tokyo Olympics"

Not the right news headlines Suga needs right now.

[Logical]

Lose-lose situation for the LDP. If Suga stays he'll drag the party down. If he goes, it'll remind voters of the chaotic post Koizumi days and damage the image of stability that Abe had built. Either way it'll eat up time and resources that should've been spent preparing for the election. I can see LDP losing a majority on its own now. Only saving grace is that the opposition isn't seen as a credible alternative yet.

[jaichind]

Lose-lose situation for the LDP. If Suga stays he'll drag the party down. If he goes, it'll remind voters of the chaotic post Koizumi days and damage the image of stability that Abe had built. Either way it'll eat up time and resources that should've been spent preparing for the election. I can see LDP losing a majority on its own now. Only saving grace is that the opposition isn't seen as a credible alternative yet.

My mental model right now is that a downside election for LDP will be a re-run of 2000 where LDP barely falls short of majority but should win a majority with KP (in 2000 LDP also had NCP which later merged into LDP.)  The only reason LDP-KP-NCP even did that well is the ant-LDP vote was split between DPJ JCP and LP (Ozawa's outfit.)  This time around JRP will do do well and while JRP will eat into LDP votes somewhat it will for sure capture a bunch of anti-LDP votes, especially on the PR slate.  On the upside would be the Olympics is viewed a success and LDP-KP still lose some seats relative to 2017 but still have a solid majority.

[jaichind]

One thing that is clear about the upcoming elections is that CDP will win over 100 seats.  In all elections since the new FTPF + PR system got put in place since 1996 there has been a non-LDP party that won over 100 seats (NFP in 1996, DPJ in 2000 2003 2005 2009) but in the Abe landslide elections of 2012 2014 and 2017 no non-LDP party has won over 100 seats.  NFP in 1996 and DPJ in 2003 2005 and 2009 were seen as real alternatives to the DPJ although in 2000 DPJ were not seen as a viable alternative to the LDP.  DPJ winning over 100 seats in 2000 was part of the path of DPJ being seen as a true alternative to LDP and paved the way for the LP merger into DPJ in 2003. 

This election CDP will not be viewed as a true alterative to LDP but if goes over 100 seats by a good margin CDP could be viewed as a real alternative to LDP in the next general election.

[jaichind]

Table on 兵庫(Hyōgo) governor election.  It shows that national LDP and JRP are backing one candidate while the local rebel LDP are joining forces with CDP and DPP to back another candidate.  The core issue is the local LDP, just like the 大阪(Osaka) LDP, see the JRP as their main enemy while the national LDP see CDP as their main enemy and might need JRP post-election to form a stable majority if LDP-KP failed to do so.

The election is tomorrow.

Local media reports that they are picking up a last minute surge for the Local rebel LDP-CDP-DPP candidate and now the race is most likely neck-to-neck.  This battle is a contest of national LDP vs the local rebel LDP branch with both sides bringing in ringers (JRP for national LDP and CDP-DPP for the local rebel LDP.)  If the national LDP loses this one it will be another blow to Suga.