Japan 2021 Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections (July) and Lower House Election Oct 31st
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Author Topic: Japan 2021 Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections (July) and Lower House Election Oct 31st  (Read 44560 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #350 on: July 04, 2021, 10:58:42 AM »

https://www.nhk.or.jp/senkyo/database/togisen/2021/

NHK has 125 out of 127 called

LDP-KP           54
LDP                 31
KP                   23

TPFA+            34
TPFA                31
pro-TPFA Ind      3 

Opposition      36
CDP                15
TSN                 1
Minor Left        1
JCP                19

JRP                 1


Of the 2 remaining seats it is 2 LDP and 1 Minor Left fighting it out to win 2 of them. LDP will win one of them for sure.

The Minor Left winner will most caucus with CDP.  The 3 pro-TPFA independent is really 1 TPFA rebel, 1 pro-TPFA independent,  and 1 pro-Rengo independent.  The pro-Rengo independent could caucus with TPFA or CDP.    The pro-TPFA independent will most likely caucus with TPFA with the intentions of the TPFA rebel unclear.
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jaichind
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« Reply #351 on: July 04, 2021, 11:00:32 AM »

Ashai called the last 2 seats for LDP (part of the slight LDP overperformance in larger districts)

So the result is

LDP-KP           56
LDP                 33
KP                   23

TPFA+            34
TPFA                31
pro-TPFA Ind      3

Opposition      36
CDP                15
TSN                 1
Minor Left        1
JCP                19

JRP                 1

Will work on vote share calculations later today when I have time.
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jaichind
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« Reply #352 on: July 04, 2021, 11:09:23 AM »

Just to get a sense where LDP fell apart.  If you divide the seat into those which are 5- member or bigger (49 of them) and 4- member or smaller (78 of them.)


For the 49 5- member and bigger districts LDP was expect to win 15 as per CW (I expected 14.)  LDP ended up winning 14.

For the 78 4- member and smaller districts LDP was expected to win 33 as per CW (I also expected 33.)  LDP ended up winning 19. 

TPFA clearly got some LDP votes which when combined with anti-LDP tactical voting in smaller districts crushed LDP.  In bigger districts the TPFA overperformance also ate into CDP JCP votes as well and as a result they seem to born the brunt of the TPFA surge leaving LDP winning as many seats of most had expected.
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jaichind
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« Reply #353 on: July 04, 2021, 11:27:04 AM »

NHK exit poll and result

LDP     25-43→33
KP       16-23→23
TPFA    20-35→31
CDP    11-22→15
JCP     14-22→19
TSN      1-3→1
JRP       0-2→1
DPP        0→0
Ind.     2-6→4
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jaichind
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« Reply #354 on: July 04, 2021, 12:39:57 PM »

LDP's 33 seats is a record low for the largest party elected.  The previous record was 1989 when LDP won 43 seats as the largest party. 

LDP's 33 and TPFA's 31 adds up to 64 seats which is a record low for the largest two parties elected.  The previous record was 1993 when LDP won 44 seats and KP win 26 seats which adds up to 69 seats.
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jaichind
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« Reply #355 on: July 04, 2021, 12:50:11 PM »

It seems behind the scene reporting had LDP high command certain of going above 50 seats a week ago.  Then when Koike entered the hospital internal polling had a TPFA surge and LDP internal estimates more around 40-45.  Still as election day developed the mood in LDP high command was rising due to turnout patterns and hopes rose again of LDP maybe getting to 50 seats.  Then when the exit polls came out there was complete shock at LDP high command.

It seems reporting at CDP leadership had a similar pattern where they detected the CDP vote shifting to TPFA when Koike entered the hospital but as election day developed CDP became more optimistic.   Then when exit polls hit the CDP high command pretty much concluded that a good part of their vote must have gone to TPFA and that a CDP surge is very unlkely.
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jaichind
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« Reply #356 on: July 04, 2021, 12:53:07 PM »

It seems turnout was a dismal 42.39% as there was no last minute turnout surge as the polls closed like in 2017.   These sort of turnout numbers should have meant a LDP landslide.  Instead it seems even part of the LDP and most likely KP core vote stayed home as well as the pro-Opposition marginal voter in addition to part of the LDP vote that did turn out seems to have voted TPFA.
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jaichind
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« Reply #357 on: July 04, 2021, 01:02:48 PM »

Yomiuri exit poll on how LDP and the usually anti-LDP independents voted

Only 57% of LDP voters voted LDP, 19% voted TPFA, 6% voted KP (part of this is the hidden KP voter hiding out as LDP voter), 4% voted CDP, 3% voted for JCP and JRP each.

28% of independents voted TPFA while only 16% voted CDP and JCP each.  This bloc should have leaned heavily CDP but TPFA cut into this bloc of voters. 13% voted LDP, 6% voted KP, and 4% voted JRP. 

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jaichind
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« Reply #358 on: July 04, 2021, 01:09:20 PM »

Nice chart of results by district and in sequence of vote share.
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jaichind
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« Reply #359 on: July 04, 2021, 09:52:49 PM »

My initial vote share chart

                    Contest     Win      Vote share
LDP                  60           33          25.69%
LDP rebel           1             0            0.17%
KP                   23           23           13.58%
TCT                   3             0            0.19% (Tax Cuts Tokyo)
JRP                  13            1            3.57%
Minor Right        3             0            0.57%
TPFA                47          31           22.28%
pro-TPFA Ind     1             1             0.88%
TPFA rebel        2             2             1.08%
SP                    5             0             0.18% (Storm Party, was PNHK)
RP                    4             0             0.21% (Reform Party, looks like alias for Storm Party)
DPP                  4             0             0.67%
CDP                28           15           12.34%
pro-CDP Ind     1             0             0.42%
CDP rebel         2             0             0.41%
GP                   1             1             0.40% (Green Party with CDP-SDP support)
TSN                 3             1             1.32%
Minor Left         8             0            0.78%
RS                   3             0             0.80%
JCP                 31           19           13.57%
Ind/Misc          28             0            0.88%

By bloc
LDP-KP            39.44%  (LDP KP)
Third Pole        28.95%  (TPFA JRP other minor Right parties)
Center-Left      17.15%  (CDP DPP RS TSN and other minor Left Parties)
JCP                 13.57%  (JCP)

LDP vote share rose around 3% from 2017.
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Logical
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« Reply #360 on: July 05, 2021, 12:11:28 AM »



Asahi exit poll
In constituencies where CDP stood down, 51% of their supporters voted for JCP, 23% for TFP, 22% for others and only 4% for LDP.
In constituencies where JCP stood down, 77% of their supporters voted for CDP, 15 for TFP, 6% for others and 2% for LDP.

Unlike the unions, most CDP supporters have no qualms about voting tactically for JCP/other parties to block the LDP.
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jaichind
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« Reply #361 on: July 05, 2021, 05:29:03 AM »

Another Asahi exit poll

Where KP is not running who does KP voters vote for. 

In 2017 it was TPFA 68 LDP 17
This time it was LDP 82 TPFA 11



In 1- and 2- member districts, LDP won 7 out of 37 seats in 2017. This time it won 12 out of 37.  This was mostly because of the KP vote shifting over from TPFA to LDP.
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jaichind
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« Reply #362 on: July 05, 2021, 06:15:50 AM »



Asahi exit poll
In constituencies where CDP stood down, 51% of their supporters voted for JCP, 23% for TFP, 22% for others and only 4% for LDP.
In constituencies where JCP stood down, 77% of their supporters voted for CDP, 15 for TFP, 6% for others and 2% for LDP.

Unlike the unions, most CDP supporters have no qualms about voting tactically for JCP/other parties to block the LDP.

Yes, up to a point this is good news for CDP-JCP alliance especially when Tokyo is the area where it has been the most difficult for the CDP and JCP base to fuse (三重(Mie) and 京都(Kyoto) being the others). 

Caveats are that CDP and JCP supporters are only a fraction of the CDP and JCP vote.  The large bloc of independents which lean anti-LDP also form a good bloc of the CDP and JCP election day vote.  This time that bloc voted in large numbers for TPFA which explains the relative underperformance of CDP.    Of course this election which many including myself view has being nationalized ended voting on local matters so this independent vote for TPFA could shift back to CDP and JCP in case of an alliance.

Also in this election where CDP and JCP ran candidates in the same district in the 2- and 3- member districts there was a clear sign of a lack of tactical voting between the two bloc of voters.

So the main takeaway for CDP and JCP in the upcoming Lower House elections in Tokyo is that they must hang together or they will hang separately and while their core voters will vote for the other party in an alliance it is not clear their marginal voters from independents would shift over to vote for the other party if called upon to do so as part of an alliance.

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jaichind
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« Reply #363 on: July 05, 2021, 06:29:59 AM »

Another Asahi exit poll

Where KP is not running who does KP voters vote for.  

In 2017 it was TPFA 68 LDP 17
This time it was LDP 82 TPFA 11



In 1- and 2- member districts, LDP won 7 out of 37 seats in 2017. This time it won 12 out of 37.  This was mostly because of the KP vote shifting over from TPFA to LDP.

You can see this play out in the actual vote share

1- and 2- member districts (KP did not run in any except for 1)
                          2017          2021            Diff
LDP vote              25.2%        30.5%      +5.3%


3- member districts and higher (KP ran in all of them)
                          2017          2021            Diff
LDP vote              21.8%        24.1%      +2.3%

So the core LDP vote actually only went up by 2.3% (mostly from TPFA) and in 1- and 2- member districts it gained another 3% of the vote due to KP vote coming back from TPFA in 2017 to vote LDP.


While we are at it, KP vote share in 3- member districts and higher (KP ran in all of them)
                        2017          2021            Diff
KP vote              17.8%        18.0%      +0.2%

This is a clear warning sign for KP.  In a low turnout election the KP vote share in seats contested should be higher than this.  KP had several close calls this election and if their vote continue to erode like this they will have a bunch of problems next couple of election cycles.
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jaichind
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« Reply #364 on: July 05, 2021, 06:41:17 AM »

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/byline/oohamazakitakuma/20210705-00246412/

Analysis on how TPFA pulled a rabbit out of a hat.

1) Koike effect - There is no such thing as bad publicity.  Impression of Koike lukewarm support for TPFA for fear of offending a "certain" LDP-KP majority followed by being ill followed by coming out to campaign for TPFA the last couple of days in the campaign put all the focus on her and not anyone else.  It seems all the swing districts she campaigned in the last couple of days of election campaign the TPFA outperformed. 

2) Underdog effect - All polls and projections that LDP was way ahead which historically drove down opposition turnout actually severed to lower LDP turnout and also allowed some LDP voters to vote TPFA out of sympathy for Koike with the premise that: LDP is going to win anyway so I can safely show my sympathy for Koike by voting TPFA.

3) TPFA women candidates: It seems where TPFA got votes from the CDP base were women voters who were attracted by the large number of TPFA women candidates.  It seems within TPFA the women candidates fared better than men candidates which seems to reflect a CDP women vote shift to TPFA for those candidates.
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jaichind
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« Reply #365 on: July 05, 2021, 06:45:14 AM »

Turnout and LDP seat

         Turnout  LDP seat
1993   51.43%   44
1997   40.80%   54
2001   50.08%   53
2005   43.99%   48
2009   54.49%   38
2013   43.50%   59
2017   51.28%   23
2021   42.39%   33

2021 broke a pattern of LDP doing very well when turnout is low.  Only other exception was 2001 when LDP did well on high turnout.  That was right after Koizumi took over as LDP PM and there was a clear pro-Koizumi wave with marginal voters that came out to vote LDP to back Koizumi.
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jaichind
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« Reply #366 on: July 05, 2021, 07:25:45 AM »


Rengo this time around have really hedged their bets.  They have endorsed all 4 DPP candidates (none of them will win), 28 out of 47 TPFA candidates, and 19 out of 28 CDP candidates.  Basically Rengo endorsed all TPFA candidates that does not have a LDP background and endorsed all CDP candidates that are not explicitly backed by the JCP (although in a couple of cases implicitly JCP support is ok.)


This election went fairly well for Rengo.  Out of the 52 candidates they supported 34 won.  21 in TPFA, 12 CDP, and 1 pro-TPFA (really pro-Rengo) independent.  Due to part of the 2017 TPFA vote that came from LDP going back to LDP this time around, most TPFA incumbents that were defeated had LDP background.  As a result the Rengo component of TPFA caucus is a lot larger in 2021 than in 2017.  If you look at the TPFA MLAs you can argue that TPFA is now more like a Center-Left Rengo party than a Third Pole Right party even though Koike is still clearly on the Right.
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jaichind
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« Reply #367 on: July 05, 2021, 07:28:18 PM »
« Edited: July 05, 2021, 07:31:30 PM by jaichind »

The next trial of strength is the July 18th governor election for 兵庫(Hyōgo).  兵庫(Hyōgo) has historically, like next door 大阪(Osaka) has had an anti-LDP lean.  That change in 2012 with the rise of JRP which ate into the anti-LDP vote leading to the even split of the anti-LDP vote between the Center-Left and JRP.  This has resulted in 兵庫(Hyōgo) becoming one of the safest prefectures for the LDP.

The 5 term incumbent pro-LDP governor is retiring but that has led to an open civil war within LDP.  A significant bloc of the 兵庫(Hyōgo) prefecture LDP caucus have split off from the LDP and backed as former lieutenant governor as a opponent to the official pro-LDP candidate.  This rebellion seems to have the backing of the retiring governor.  This sets up the race into a 3 way race between the pro-LDP candidate, LDP rebel (with the backing of CDP-DPP) and JCP candidate.  In order to beef up its chances the official LDP managed to get the JRP to back the pro-LDP candidate.  This sort of triggered a war of words between the retiring governor and the 大阪(Osaka) JRP governor.  In a recent speech the retiring 兵庫(Hyōgo)  governor in response to a surge of COVID-19 cases in 大阪(Osaka)  threatened to "be just like Trump" and build a wall between 大阪(Osaka) and 兵庫(Hyōgo) to cut off the virus.  He also referred to the need of an "independent"  兵庫(Hyōgo) as an indirect slat at the more powerful influential and JRP controlled 大阪(Osaka).

Anyway I suspect the race is now neck-to-neck between LDP-JRP and LDP rebel-CDP-DPP and election night two weeks from now will be pretty exciting.  
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jaichind
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« Reply #368 on: July 05, 2021, 09:17:57 PM »

Examples of CDP-JCP alliance working

Shibuya City (渋谷区) - JCP not running here allowed CDP to beat out LDP to win a seat


Mitaka (三鷹市) - JCP not running here allowed CDP to beat out LDP to win a seat


Nakano City (中野区) - JCP not running here allowed CDP to beat out LDP to win a seat


Koganei (小金井市) - Grand alliance of CDP JCP TSN backing a GP candidate beat out both LDP and TPFA


Bunkyo City (文京区) - CDP not running here allowed JCP to beat out LDP to win a seat


North Tama (北多摩) 4th - CDP not running here allowed JCP to beat out TPFA to win a seat


Hino (日野市) - CDP not running here allowed JCP to beat out LDP to win a seat
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jaichind
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« Reply #369 on: July 05, 2021, 09:22:18 PM »

Examples of failure for CDP-JCP to form an alliance cost them seats

South Tama (南多摩) - CDP and JCP both running allowed LDP to win a seat


Nish**tokyo (西東京市) - CDP and JCP both running allowed TPFA to win a seat
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« Reply #370 on: July 06, 2021, 12:50:20 AM »
« Edited: July 06, 2021, 02:48:02 AM by Logical »

Examples of failure for CDP-JCP to form an alliance cost them seats
Interestingly, the two CDP candidates were incumbents who ran under Tomin last time. If you include 3 member districts then Kitatama 3rd counts as an opposition failure too.
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« Reply #371 on: July 06, 2021, 02:28:58 AM »
« Edited: July 06, 2021, 02:34:06 AM by Lach »

Nagano prefectural poll, voting intention
https://twitter.com/yadanetnagano/status/1412146678782562308?s=20

立憲 28%
自民 22%
共産 10%
公明   4%
維新   3%
社民   1%
れいわ  1%
国民   1%
嵐    1%

Article this comes from also seems to imply that the JCP is competitive in the 4th, which I highly doubt is true
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jaichind
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« Reply #372 on: July 06, 2021, 04:59:08 AM »

Examples of failure for CDP-JCP to form an alliance cost them seats
Interestingly, the two CDP candidates were incumbents who ran under Tomin last time. If you include 3 member districts then Kitatama 3rd counts as an opposition failure too.

Correct. 

North Tama (北多摩) 3rd would count as CDP-JCP alliance failure where CDP JCP both running allowed KP to win although I suspect in reality KP would have found a way for LDP to take the fall if such an alliance was made


On paper
Minato City (港區)  is another CDP-JCP alliance failure although I suspect there are not enough CDP and JCP votes to make it work in reality


We also have

Meguro City (目黒区) - where CDP-JCP alliance failure did not cost them a seat only because of LDP's mistake of nominating two candidates.


North Tama (北多摩) 1st - where CDP-JCP alliance failure did not cost it a seat but almost ceded a seat to LDP
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jaichind
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« Reply #373 on: July 06, 2021, 05:20:51 AM »

To be fair, some of the districts where CDP-JCP failed to form an alliance is due to the fact that the strongest CDP candidate in said district has a Rengo background.  This means Rengo and that candidate is not likely to accept standing down for JCP and the JCP vote transfer to said Rengo backed CDP candidate would have been poor.  In other words, neither side could afford to back down without damage to its organization and hurting their chances in the next election.
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jaichind
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« Reply #374 on: July 06, 2021, 05:23:05 AM »

Another CDP miss is Shinjuku City (新宿区) where CDP failed to take advantage of the LDP mistake of nominating 2 candidates.  CDP nearly won the last seat from LDP missing by a margin less than 1K.  What hurt CDP was a feminist minor Left independent running that took 4.7K votes at least half of would have most likely gone CDP had she not run.
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