Japan 2021 Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections (July) and Lower House Election Oct 31st
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Author Topic: Japan 2021 Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections (July) and Lower House Election Oct 31st  (Read 44564 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #325 on: July 04, 2021, 08:51:39 AM »

https://www.nhk.or.jp/senkyo/database/togisen/2021/

NHK has 63 out of 127 called

LDP-KP           23
LDP                 14
KP                    9

TPFA+            21
TPFA                19
pro-TPFA Ind      2

Opposition      19
CDP                 6
TSN                 1
Minor Left        1
JCP                11
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jaichind
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« Reply #326 on: July 04, 2021, 08:53:13 AM »

CDP seems scared of another Koike national party forming

立憲民主党幹部は「小池百合子、恐るべし」と語り、都民ファーストの勢いが予想以上だったことを強調

I doubt we will see a re-run of that 2017 fiasco.  There is no time for her to get a party going in time for Oct Sept election. 

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jaichind
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« Reply #327 on: July 04, 2021, 08:56:35 AM »

LDP out of Bunkyo, JCP gain there

The big surprise here is that TPFA winning.  CW has JCP somewhat ahead of TPFA for the second seat but LDP will win one for sure.  Instead it is TPFA and JCP winning. Another disaster for LDP

Rerun of the same dynamic in Hino (日野市).  It was expected that JCP will edge out TPFA for the second seat but LDP will win a seat for sure.  Instead it is JCP TPFA winning and LDP out in the cold.
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jaichind
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« Reply #328 on: July 04, 2021, 09:00:02 AM »

https://www.asahi.com/senkyo/togisen/

Asahi now has it at  70 out of 127 called


LDP-KP           30
LDP                 16
KP                   14

TPFA+            20
TPFA                18
pro-TPFA Ind      2

Opposition      20
CDP                 7
TSN                 1
Minor Left        1
JCP                11
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jaichind
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« Reply #329 on: July 04, 2021, 09:17:39 AM »

https://www.asahi.com/senkyo/togisen/

Asahi now has it at  101 out of 127 called


LDP-KP           42
LDP                 22
KP                   20

TPFA+            31
TPFA                28
pro-TPFA Ind      3

Opposition      27
CDP                 10
TSN                   1
Minor Left          1
JCP                 15

JRP                  1

KP avoided meltdown.  Did not lose any seats so far.  LDP CDP JCP all do worse than exit polls expected.
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jaichind
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« Reply #330 on: July 04, 2021, 09:30:04 AM »

https://www.nhk.or.jp/senkyo/database/togisen/2021/

NHK has 93 out of 127 called

LDP-KP           38
LDP                 20
KP                   18

TPFA+            28
TPFA                25
pro-TPFA Ind      3

Opposition      26
CDP                10
TSN                 1
Minor Left        1
JCP                14

JRP                 1
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jaichind
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« Reply #331 on: July 04, 2021, 09:35:47 AM »

https://www.asahi.com/senkyo/togisen/

Asahi now has it at  109 out of 127 called


LDP-KP           45
LDP                 24
KP                   21

TPFA+            33
TPFA                30
pro-TPFA Ind      3

Opposition      30
CDP                 11
TSN                   1
Minor Left          1
JCP                 17

JRP                  1
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jaichind
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« Reply #332 on: July 04, 2021, 09:45:02 AM »

https://www.asahi.com/senkyo/togisen/

Asahi now has it at  119 out of 127 called


LDP-KP           51
LDP                 29
KP                   22

TPFA+            34
TPFA                31
pro-TPFA Ind      3

Opposition      33
CDP                 13
TSN                   1
Minor Left          1
JCP                 18

JRP                  1

neck-to-neck between LDP and TPFA for largest party.  neck-to-neck between TPFA bloc and Opposition for second largest bloc.  KP closing in on winning at 23 seats.
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jaichind
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« Reply #333 on: July 04, 2021, 09:47:07 AM »

Meguro City (目黒区) is the only district left that KP has a seat uncalled.  It is 3 members and right now the count is TPFA KP JCP CDP LDP LDP.  Most likely KP will win for a clean sweep of 23 seat and defying exit polls.
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Lachi
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« Reply #334 on: July 04, 2021, 09:49:57 AM »

They actually managed to do it, holy crap...
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Lachi
lok1999
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« Reply #335 on: July 04, 2021, 09:52:18 AM »

CDP miss out in Shinjuku
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jaichind
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« Reply #336 on: July 04, 2021, 09:54:03 AM »

They actually managed to do it, holy crap...

I got many things wrong in this election but I am vindicated that KP would win all 23 seats.  So in the end it was a tactic which works well in the world of the shy KP voter.  I am just surprised almost everyone always fall for it.  One day the wolf will come for the boy that cried wolf.  But I guess it is not this election.
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jaichind
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« Reply #337 on: July 04, 2021, 09:56:46 AM »

LDP slight overperformed in large districts (5- members or larger) but way underperformed in smaller districts (3- or smaller.) Clear signs of CDP JCP TPFA tactical voting to lock out LDP.  In larger districts it is everyone for themselves and the LDP was able to gain the edge.
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kaoras
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« Reply #338 on: July 04, 2021, 09:58:10 AM »

Meguro City (目黒区) is the only district left that KP has a seat uncalled.  It is 3 members and right now the count is TPFA KP JCP CDP LDP LDP.  Most likely KP will win for a clean sweep of 23 seat and defying exit polls.

In 北多摩三 3 member (Kitatama?) district NHK and Yomiuri still haven't called the final seat between JCP and KP. JCP candidate is actually second on what's counted so far.
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jaichind
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« Reply #339 on: July 04, 2021, 10:02:14 AM »

In the 8 uncalled seats in Asahi LDP is ahead in 3 of them and TPFA none of then.  If so most likely LDP will emerge with 32 seat beating out TPFA.

8 seats
LDP ahead in 3
Minor Left ahead in 1
KP ahead in 1
JCP ahead in 2
CDP ahead in 1
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jaichind
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« Reply #340 on: July 04, 2021, 10:02:59 AM »

Meguro City (目黒区) is the only district left that KP has a seat uncalled.  It is 3 members and right now the count is TPFA KP JCP CDP LDP LDP.  Most likely KP will win for a clean sweep of 23 seat and defying exit polls.

In 北多摩三 3 member (Kitatama?) district NHK and Yomiuri still haven't called the final seat between JCP and KP. JCP candidate is actually second on what's counted so far.

Ashai has the same numbers but boldly calls it for KP over JCP   I assume they know what they are doing.
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Lachi
lok1999
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« Reply #341 on: July 04, 2021, 10:03:22 AM »

Meguro City (目黒区) is the only district left that KP has a seat uncalled.  It is 3 members and right now the count is TPFA KP JCP CDP LDP LDP.  Most likely KP will win for a clean sweep of 23 seat and defying exit polls.

In 北多摩三 3 member (Kitatama?) district NHK and Yomiuri still haven't called the final seat between JCP and KP. JCP candidate is actually second on what's counted so far.
Asahi has called it for Komei
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jaichind
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« Reply #342 on: July 04, 2021, 10:14:47 AM »

Current 3- member Meguro City (目黒区) is pretty comical. With 95% of the vote in it is

TPFA    23.51%
KP       16.72%
JCP      16.51%
CDP     16.20%
LDP     13.90%
LDP     10.45%

Many thought that the LDP made a mistake in nominating 2 candidate and will miss out the top 3.  It was always assumed the top 3 would be JCP KP TPFA with CDP voters tactically voting for JCP.  It seems CDP tactical voting for JCP did not take place but that did not hand LDP a seat.  In fact the 2 LDP candidate were pushed to 5th and 6th with TPFA clearly eating into LDP votes.  CDP and JCP now pose the greatest danger to KP holding its last and 23rd seat.
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jaichind
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« Reply #343 on: July 04, 2021, 10:22:09 AM »

https://www.asahi.com/senkyo/togisen/

Asahi now has it at  122 out of 127 called


LDP-KP           53
LDP                 31
KP                   22

TPFA+            34
TPFA                31
pro-TPFA Ind      3

Opposition      34
CDP                 13
TSN                   1
Minor Left          1
JCP                 19

JRP                  1

Out of the 5 remaining seats

LDP is ahead in 1
Minor Left is ahead in 1
JCP is ahead in 1
KP is ahead in 1
CDP is ahead in 1

which means if these trends hold LDP barely beats out TPFA for largest party and Opposition bloc beats out TPFA bloc for second largest bloc.
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kaoras
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« Reply #344 on: July 04, 2021, 10:35:33 AM »

Current 3- member Meguro City (目黒区) is pretty comical. With 95% of the vote in it is

TPFA    23.51%
KP       16.72%
JCP      16.51%
CDP     16.20%
LDP     13.90%
LDP     10.45%

Many thought that the LDP made a mistake in nominating 2 candidate and will miss out the top 3.  It was always assumed the top 3 would be JCP KP TPFA with CDP voters tactically voting for JCP.  It seems CDP tactical voting for JCP did not take place but that did not hand LDP a seat.  In fact the 2 LDP candidate were pushed to 5th and 6th with TPFA clearly eating into LDP votes.  CDP and JCP now pose the greatest danger to KP holding its last and 23rd seat.

Apparently CDP won the final seat with 6 votes difference against JCP. I wonder if Japan has recounts or someting.
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jaichind
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« Reply #345 on: July 04, 2021, 10:36:07 AM »

Meguro City (目黒区) is the only district left that KP has a seat uncalled.  It is 3 members and right now the count is TPFA KP JCP CDP LDP LDP.  Most likely KP will win for a clean sweep of 23 seat and defying exit polls.

In 北多摩三 3 member (Kitatama?) district NHK and Yomiuri still haven't called the final seat between JCP and KP. JCP candidate is actually second on what's counted so far.

NHK called it for KP over JCP as well now.
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jaichind
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« Reply #346 on: July 04, 2021, 10:38:06 AM »

Current 3- member Meguro City (目黒区) is pretty comical. With 95% of the vote in it is

TPFA    23.51%
KP       16.72%
JCP      16.51%
CDP     16.20%
LDP     13.90%
LDP     10.45%

Many thought that the LDP made a mistake in nominating 2 candidate and will miss out the top 3.  It was always assumed the top 3 would be JCP KP TPFA with CDP voters tactically voting for JCP.  It seems CDP tactical voting for JCP did not take place but that did not hand LDP a seat.  In fact the 2 LDP candidate were pushed to 5th and 6th with TPFA clearly eating into LDP votes.  CDP and JCP now pose the greatest danger to KP holding its last and 23rd seat.

Apparently CDP won the final seat with 6 votes difference against JCP. I wonder if Japan has recounts or someting.

I think they do.  Although their process is pretty solid so usually recounts does not change anything.  Still 6 votes is tiny.
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jaichind
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« Reply #347 on: July 04, 2021, 10:41:22 AM »

Meguro City (目黒区) count seems to be

TPFA         23,117 elected
KP            16,515 elected
CDP          16,044 elected
JCP           16,038
LDP          13,509
LDP          10,342

KP has this magic where they know exactly how many votes they need to win and usually delivers those votes to their candidates and no more.

Yeah, the CDP JCP gap is 6 votes.
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jaichind
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« Reply #348 on: July 04, 2021, 10:49:35 AM »

Monday morning spin

LDP - > return to largest party -> Victory !!
TPFA -> Way outperformed expectations to go above 30 seats -> Victory !!
KP -> Kept all 23 seats -> Victory !!!
JCP -> Kept 19 seats from a great 2017 election -> Victory !!
CDP -> More than doubled seat count -> Victory !!
JRP -> Kept its 1 seat from 2017 -> Victory !!

The big winner is of course TPFA, KP and JCP are small winners by keeping their seats count despite the TPFA surge, CDP could have hit 20 seats but have to settle for something like 15 is a minor defeat, and LDP was underperformed (worst case scenario was something like 40) is a big defeat.

So both LDP and CDP, the main parties for upcoming Lower House election received setbacks.
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Logical
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« Reply #349 on: July 04, 2021, 10:50:24 AM »

They got a lucky break in Kitatama 3rd. Had either the JCP/CDP candidate stood down the opposition would've won a seat handily. But then again I believe that they would do some electoral dark arts to pull enough LDP votes to win.
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