Japan 2021 Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections (July) and Lower House Election Oct 31st
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Estrella
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« Reply #25 on: January 29, 2021, 12:20:24 PM »

In general, how much of JCP vote are swing voters who sometimes vote for other parties as opposed to Kōmeitō-esque true believers?
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jaichind
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« Reply #26 on: January 29, 2021, 02:37:09 PM »

In general, how much of JCP vote are swing voters who sometimes vote for other parties as opposed to Kōmeitō-esque true believers?

First, KP voters vote LDP all the time based on instructions from KP but even then there are some leakage toward Center-Left parties.  JCP voters also vote for JCP directed Center-Left allies.  Note that social desirability plays a big role in voting behaviors and the social stigma of KP and JCP are both fairly high.  This means LDP voters defect in large numbers when asked to vote KP and Center-Left voters defect in large number when asked to vote JCP.  There are going to be the Center-Left tactical voter that vote JCP  and vice versa but that is often based on personal factors of the candidates in question. 

For the 2019 Upper House election I did an regression analysis of how the PR vote maps the the 1- member district votes.

Main takeaway from JCP point of view is the JCP PR voter generally loyally vote for JCP's Center-Left ally while the Center-Left PR vote defect in large numbers when asked to vote for the JCP candidate but had no problems voting for a JCP candidate when running as an independent which shows the issue is not policy preference but social stigma of voting for a candidate with the JCP party label.

I have looked over the 32 1- member districts and grouping them by Opposition candidate type (CDP DPP or OPPN) as well as opposition candidate quality (political experience in said prefecture) I did a bunch of regression by PR vote.  I grouped PR vote by (LDP KP JRP DPP CDP Left [RS SDP Olive LAB], Protest parties (HRP PNHK) JCP and EP)

What I found was mostly expected by still interesting

1) When the opposition candidate is from the CDP, the JRP PR voter leans very heavy for LDP (88-8).

2) When the opposition candidate is from the DPP, the JRP PR voter still leans LDP has some support for the Opposition candidate (74-20).  On the flip side in such cases there are some defections from CDP PR (80-18) and JCP PR (88-11) voters that voted LDP

3) When the Opposition candidate is Independent (OPPN) with less political experience there are more defections from KP PR (86-14) to vote OPPN even as JRP PR (89-4) voter still lean very heavy for LDP.  At the same time running as OPPN seems to create some defections from JCP PR (83-17) voters

4) When the opposition candidate is a high quality candidate (someone with significant political experience in said prefecture) there is almost no defection from the various Center-Left PR voters (DPP CDP Left JCP) while there is significant defection from LDP PR (78-18) and JRP PR (67-27) voters to vote for opposition candidate. There are some defection from KP PR (90-10) voters but no greater than an OPPN candidate with smaller amount of political experience.

5) In the one case the opposition candidate is a JCP candidate it is clear that not only does he not capture any LDP KP JRP PR voters there are significant defection from non-JCP PR voters from the Center-Left.  But in the two case where the opposition candidate is JCP candidate running as OPPN the level of Center-Left PR voters are much reduced and there are even a bit of cross-voting by JRP PR voters.  So the Center-Right PR votes are hostile to label JCP and not not necessary the JCP policies.  The KP PR voter is the exception where there is almost no defection from KP PR voter for the JCP candidate running as OPPN.  This is not a surprise as KP is very hostile to JCP.

6) HRP and PNHK should be considered Third Pole parties.  Most of the district vote PNHK-HRP received beyond the PNHK PR and HRP PR voters are from LDP and JRP PR voters.  So a good part of the PNHK-HRP district vote are disgruntled LDP PR and JRP PR voters.

The two seats which I kept out of the regression because they are such outliers are 福井(Fukui) (where JCP ran as the opposition candidate) and 愛媛(Ehime) where the OPPN candidate has massive local appeal and way exceeded the Center-Left-JCP base.

福井(Fukui) district results are

LDP       66.14%
PNHK      7.69%
JCP       26.18%

PR section results are

LDP       45.20%
KP        10.51%
JRP        6.54%
Protest   2.60% (PNHK HRP)
DPP       9.98%
CDP     12.04%
Left       6.37% (RS SDP Olive LAB)
JCP        6.38%
EP         0.38%

Clear signs of defection of Center-Left PR votes especially when most of the PNHK votes are from LDP PR and JRP PR voters.


愛媛(Ehime) district results are

LDP       41.51%
PNHK      2.49%
OPPN    56.00%

PR section results are

LDP      41.65%
KP        15.40%
JRP        9.08%
Protest   2.21% (PNHK HRP)
DPP       7.98%
CDP     11.87%
Left       5.73% (RS SDP Olive LAB)
JCP       5.79%
EP         0.29%

Clear signs of defection from Center-Right PR voters for OPPN.  It seems that disgruntled LDP PR and JRP PR voters that would have voted PNHK or HRP in other prefecture voted OPPN to show their anger.
 
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jaichind
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« Reply #27 on: January 31, 2021, 08:08:52 AM »

Counting in progress in Tokyo 千代田区 (Chiyoda Ward) ward head election

With 28% of the vote counted it is a 3 way tied between LDP TPFA and JRP.  Surprising good result so far for JRP and to some extent TPFA.

In the same count a 千代田区 (Chiyoda Ward) assembly by-election with 23% of the vote counted there is a strong protest vote

LDP      53.5%
PNHK   35.7%
NP       10.7% (JRP ally)

With TPFA, CDP, JCP not contesting the anti-LDP vote is consolidating around PNHK and shows the level of reistience to LDP despite a by-election with no credible opponent
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jaichind
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« Reply #28 on: January 31, 2021, 08:20:27 AM »

Japanese political discussion boards are all abuzz about how LDP heavyweight cabinet member and potential Suga rival 河野太郎(Kōno Tarō) removed his tweet supporting the LDP candidate  Tokyo 千代田区 (Chiyoda Ward) ward head election right as the counting of the vote started.   Perhaps internal LDP polling shows the election might now go well and Kono is looking to distance himself from another Suga setback ?
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jaichind
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« Reply #29 on: January 31, 2021, 08:37:06 AM »

Tokyo 千代田区 (Chiyoda Ward) ward head election (79% of the vote counted)

TPFA    37.2%
LDP      31.9%
JRP      25.5%

TPFA looks like set to win

Tokyo 千代田区 (Chiyoda Ward) ward assembly by-election (87% of the vote counted)

LDP      57.7%
NP       22.1%  (JRP ally)
PNHK   20.2%

PNHK result not as huge as earlier, still LDP getting just 57.7% with very weak opponents is not a good result
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jaichind
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« Reply #30 on: January 31, 2021, 09:03:20 AM »

Tokyo 千代田区 (Chiyoda Ward) ward head election (95% of the vote counted)

TPFA    41.6%
LDP      32.7%
JRP      23.9%

TPFA revives.  Koike wins round one versus Suga.  It seems the Center-Left and even JCP vote came out to vote TPFA or JRP while the LDP vote share seems to indicate that the KP vote for LDP was very lukewarm.   Again shows that LDP is in big trouble in Tokyo and other metro areas without KP.
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jaichind
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« Reply #31 on: January 31, 2021, 09:52:45 AM »

Tokyo 千代田区 (Chiyoda Ward) ward head election (all votes counted)

TPFA    41.0% (backed by DPP and Rengo)
LDP     33.0% (backed by KP)
JRP      24.1% (backed by JCP ?!?!)

It turned out the JRP candidate was also backed by JCP.   I assume this is because JCP does not want to back LDP nor a Koike candidate ergo they rather go with JRP.



Tokyo 千代田区 (Chiyoda Ward) ward assembly by-election (all votes counted)

LDP      58.4%
NP       21.3%  (JRP ally)
PNHK   20.3%


Overall the results are positive for TPFA and negative for LDP.  TPFA will not implode as many might expect last year.  CDP-JCP will have a tactical alliance for the Tokyo prefecture elections while KP's alliance with LDP might up being lukewarm to not close off a TPFA-KP alliance after the elections.  DPP most likely will form an alliance with TPFA while JRP given how well they did will try to go on their own.  I can now see a fairly close election with LDP-KP vs TPFA-DPP vs CDP-JCP with LDP-KP having the edge but not a overwhelming one.   It is possible and likely that LDP-KP will not win a majority in the Tokyo Prefecture elections in July.
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jaichind
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« Reply #32 on: January 31, 2021, 05:01:50 PM »

https://japantoday.com/category/politics/main-opposition-leader-vows-to-meet-expectations-that-come-with-power

"Edano says opposition party ready to prove it is viable alternative LDP"

CDP leader 枝野幸男(Edano Yukio) indicates that he will run on defeating COVID-19 like ROC and NZ even at an economic cost to achieve long term results versus what he claims Suga is doing where he is prioritizing economic activity even at the cost of letting the virus spread. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #33 on: February 01, 2021, 08:23:35 PM »

https://jen.jiji.com/jc/eng?g=eco&k=2021020101099

"Komeito Member Resigns as Lawmaker, 3 Leave LDP over Hostess Bar Visits"

Another scandal hits LDP.  This time with KP involved.  It seems 3 LDP MP and 1 KP MP visited hostess bars during lockdown in violation of government guidance.  The KP MP have resigned and the 3 LDP MPs have left the LDP.   

The KP MP is a PR MP so the impact is not large other than image.  One of the LDP MPs is in a safe seat but the other two are in a LDP-CDP marginal and the other LDP-JRP-CDP marginal.  Most likely all 3 of them will run re-election in their seats as a pro-LDP independent but this scandal might be enough for the 2 of them to potentially lose their seats and add to the list of seats that LDP could lose in the lower house election later this year. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #34 on: February 01, 2021, 08:30:33 PM »
« Edited: February 08, 2021, 06:05:00 AM by jaichind »

This weekend there was also an city assembly election in 北九州市(Kitakyushu) which is the largest city in 福岡(Fukuoka) with LDP losing 6 seats going from 22 to 16 seats while CDP and JRP made gains.


北九州市(Kitakyushu) maps to 福岡(Fukuoka) 9th and 10th districts which both were held by LDP in 2017  but by narrow margins.  The CW is that the CDP will most likely flip 10th district but LDP will hold on to 9th district in the upcoming lower house election.  Local  福岡(Fukuoka) political observers indicate that these city assembly results indicate that the LDP could lose both the 9th and 10th districts.  
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jaichind
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« Reply #35 on: February 02, 2021, 02:24:35 PM »

https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2021/02/efa749bbd5c9-lawmaker-anri-kawai-to-step-down-over-2019-vote-buying-scandal.html

"Lawmaker Anri Kawai to step down over 2019 vote-buying scandal"

広島(Hiroshima) Upper House LDP MP 河井案里(Kawai Anri) resigned ahead of being stripped of her role as part of her trial for vote buying in the 2019 Upper House election.  Her husband 河井克行(Kawai Katsuyuki) who is the LDP MP for 広島(Hiroshima) 3rd district most likely will not be far behind.

This means there will most likely be a by-election in April for the 広島(Hiroshima) Upper House seat. Given the 1- member nature of the by-election most likely LDP will win the by-election but the impact on Suga from an image point of view given how close the Kawai clan is to Abe-Suga has already been done.
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jaichind
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« Reply #36 on: February 03, 2021, 10:28:08 AM »

I read a small piece of news today which is illustrative of the situation the KP is in for 1- member districts.  KP announced that it will not run a candidate in 神奈川(Kanagawa) 6th district which was a seat held by KP for many election cycles until KP lost it to CDP in 2017.   Instead the LDP will run a candidate.

KP has high social stigma and while KP is fairly effective (over 90%) in transferring its vote to its LDP ally the LDP base often choose not to vote for KP unless it is a KP vs JCP battle where JCP also have high social stigma.

The way KP wins in 1- member districts is to form goof relationships with Third Pole parties like JRP who also step aside  to back KP.    The sum of LDP and JRP votes plus the KP vote is enough for KP to win despite large scale defection of LDP and JRP voters away from KP if a non-JCP alternative is possible.

The 9 historical KP seats are

北海道(Hokkaido) 10th - KP vs CDP - KP gets by because of support from both LDP and local Third Pole NPD and in 2017 KP almost lost the seat and in 2021 KP at best have a 50/50 shot of holding the seat

神奈川(Kanagawa) 6th district - KP vs CDP vs JRP - With JRP in the fray KP lost this seat in 2017

東京(Tokyo) 12th district - KP vs JCP.  KP historically have a good relationship with DPJ/CDP in Tokyo so this time around CDP will still step side for KP to win over JCP.  But even here in 2017 there were some LDP and JRP voters that voted JCP over KP just to show the scale of social stigma for KP

4 seats in 大阪(Osaka) and 2 seats in 兵庫(Hyōgo) - in all 6 seats JRP is fairly strong and steps aside to de facto support KP along with LDP to overcome the CDP or JCP candidate.

This time around KP figures that with JRP in the fray again in 神奈川(Kanagawa) 6th and CDP having the advantage of incumbency  KP is unlikely to win here.   In parallel KP is trying to get LDP to allocate 広島(Hiroshima) 3rd district to KP in the by-election since the disgraced LDP incumbent there, 河井克行(Kawai Katsuyuki), will clearly not be re-nominated by the LDP so this seat becomes an open seat.   広島(Hiroshima) 3rd district has a strong LDP-KP lean so KP figures that even with defections from the LDP base it still has a better chance to win here than in 神奈川(Kanagawa) 6th.  The LDP is balking at this.  I am sure what KP is saying to LDP is "C'mon, man, I am giving you 神奈川(Kanagawa) 6th, why why cannot I have 広島(Hiroshima) 3rd as compensation."  
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jaichind
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« Reply #37 on: February 05, 2021, 06:27:46 AM »

It seems that 広島(Hiroshima) LDP relents.  LDP will support KP to run in the 広島(Hiroshima) 3rd district likely by-election and I assume if KP wins LDP will support KP in the general election later this year.  I guess is the swap I predicted when KP gave up on retaking 神奈川(Kanagawa) 6th district in the upcoming general election.

It is clear that CDP will contest  広島(Hiroshima) 3rd  so KP will not get a free pass like in 東京(Tokyo) 12th district.  Also JRP is not that strong on 広島(Hiroshima) so KP will have to win based on the LDP-KP base.  Main problem is the social stigma of KP is such so that even with the significant LDP lean of the 広島(Hiroshima) 3rd it is not clear at all that KP will win the by-election. I think LDP will have to go all out to back KP in the by-election or else they risk a more passive KP in the upcoming general election.
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jaichind
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« Reply #38 on: February 07, 2021, 09:25:03 AM »

There are elections (mostly minor) almost every Sunday in Japan.  The most interesting one this weekend was for the mayor 西東京市(Nish**tokyo) in Tokyo prefecture.  It is in the Western suburban/rural are of Tokyo and its name literally means West Tokyo.

JCP is fairly strong here for a suburban area but due to the split of JCP and Center-Left vote or disengagement from one of the Center-Left or JCP when there is a 1-on-1 battle the pro-LDP candidate always wins here.  This time around CDP-JCP-SNT formed an alliance to take on LDP-KP 1-on-1.  The result was still a LDP-KP victory but it was a fairly close race.

LDP-KP             48.8%
CDP-JCP-SNT    46.6%

The CDP-JCP-SNT candidate is from 神奈川(Kanagawa) so LDP-KP have a candidate quality advantage. 

In 2017 the PR vote here was

LDP          28.3%
KP             9.2%
JRP            2.9%
HP           16.3%
CDP         29.2%
SDP           0.9%
JCP          10.3%

In 2017, at least in Tokyo, HP did pull in some JRP and LDP votes.
This time around it seems the 2017 HP and JRP vote was mostly split down the middle between the two blocs
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jaichind
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« Reply #39 on: February 08, 2021, 06:04:02 AM »

Suga cabinet approval stabilizing at high 30s so he is safe for now especially when disapproval is not high so there is room for him to recover.  LDP level of support also stabilizing




Aoki index (cabinet approval + ruling party support) at mid 70s which should be enough for a solid election win as long as the opposition are divided.  In 2021 the Center-Left opposition has mostly consolidated around CDP so a LDP-KP win will more more narrow than 2017 on these numbers.
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« Reply #40 on: February 08, 2021, 10:03:12 AM »
« Edited: February 09, 2021, 10:41:26 PM by jaichind »

My current back of the envelope projection of a 2021 Lower House election (assuming it is in the Fall of 2021)

                   District    PR     Total
LDP                177       66     243
LDP rebels         2                   2 (will be retroactively nominated by LDP)
KP                    8        23       31
JRP                 10       13        23
DPP                  6         2         8
CDP                80       53      133
RS                   0         3          3
SDP                 1         1          1
JCP                  1        15        16
OPPN               4                     4 (2 pro-DPP, 2 pro-CDP)
------------------------------------------------
                   289       176     465

My assumptions are

1) JRP surge will peter outside of 大阪(Osaka) but JRP will gain in 大阪(Osaka) to take a bunch of LDP district seats
2) CDP-DPP-SDP will form alliances with JCP in marginal seats and help flip a bunch of LDP seats
3) RS and PHK novelty factor from 2019 will peter out and both will underperform 2019
4) Rump DPP reduced to being relevant in a few seats which are strongholds of its current MPs due to their personal vote.  DPP PR will be wiped out everywhere except for 東海(Tōkai) region where still have some support.
5) Rump SDP manage to hold on to their 2 seats (1 district, 1 PR) in 九州(Kyushu) due to their branch there and especially in 沖縄(Okinawa) staying on.  In the rest of Japan what is left of SDP mostly goes to CDP.

Net result is: Pro-Constitutional revision bloc LDP-KP-JRP drops to below 300 seats putting Constitutional revision off the table for good even if they somehow rope in DPP for such a project. With COVID-19 it is de facto dead but this election will make it de jure dead.
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« Reply #41 on: February 09, 2021, 06:10:10 AM »

My current back of the envelope projection of a 2021 Lower House election (assuming it is in the Fall of 2021)

                   District    PR     Total
LDP                177       66     243
LDP rebels         2                   2 (will be retroactively nominated by LDP)
KP                    8        23       31
JRP                 10       13        23
DPP                  6         2         8
CDP                80       53      133
RS                   0         3          3
SDP                 1         1          1
JCP                  1        15        16
OPPN               4                     4 (3 pro-DPP, 1 pro-CDP)
------------------------------------------------
                   289       176     465

My assumptions are

1) JRP surge will peter outside of 大阪(Osaka) but JRP will gain in 大阪(Osaka) to take a bunch of LDP district seats
2) CDP-DPP-SDP will form alliances with JCP in marginal seats and help flip a bunch of LDP seats
3) RS and PHK novelty factor from 2019 will peter out and both will underperform 2019
4) Rump DPP reduced to being relevant in a few seats which are strongholds of its current MPs due to their personal vote.  DPP PR will be wiped out everywhere except for 東海(Tōkai) region where still have some support.
5) Rump SDP manage to hold on to their 2 seats (1 district, 1 PR) in 九州(Kyushu) due to their branch there and especially in 沖縄(Okinawa) staying on.  In the rest of Japan what is left of SDP mostly goes to CDP.

Net result is: Pro-Constitutional revision bloc LDP-KP-JRP drops to below 300 seats putting Constitutional revision off the table for good even if they somehow rope in DPP for such a project. With COVID-19 it is de facto dead but this election will make it de jure dead.
Thoughts on how Tohoku will end up?
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« Reply #42 on: February 09, 2021, 08:55:55 AM »


There I expect to see a lot flips due to CDP-JCP alliance.  JCP is fairly strong here and a fairly clean alliance here where JCP will now withdraw in favor of CDP in return for JCP was given a bunch of unwinnable seats will give CDP a good shot at winning a bunch of seats.  DPP has no presence here except perhaps 山形:(Yamagata) which makes alliance talks fairly easy.

Details of my current projection are:

青森(Aomori):  LDP retains all 3 (not a surprise)
岩手(Iwate):  CDP retains 1st and 3rd, LDP retains 2nd (not a surprise)
宮城(Miyagi: CDP flips 1st and 2nd and retain 5th, LDP retains 3rd 4th and 6th
秋田(Akita): CDP flips 1st and 2nd and LDP retains 3rd
山形(Yamagata): LDP wins all 3 (not a surprise)
福島(Fukushima): CDP retains 1st and 3rd and flips 4th, LDP retain 2nd and 5th

JCP withdrawing is pretty much the decisive factor in all these CDP flips except for 秋田(Akita) 1st where the district lean should imply a LDP victory but the CDP candidate have deep historical roots here and most likely will carry him to victory.

PR wise I have
LDP     6
KP       1
CDP    5
JDP     1

2019 Upper House PR implied results are
LDP    7
KP     1
DPP   1
DPP   3
JCP    1

Back in 2017 it was
LDP   5
KP     1
HP    3
CDP  3
JCP   1

The 2017 HP PR vote mostly split 4 ways with some going to LDP, some to CDP, some to rump DPP, and some to JRP.
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« Reply #43 on: February 09, 2021, 11:38:42 AM »

jaichind, do you know why the right is so much stronger in Aomori than in the rest of the Northeast? iirc even in the Kanto- and Tohoku-driven DPJ landslide in 2009 the LDP held the Aomori seats.
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« Reply #44 on: February 09, 2021, 12:51:29 PM »

jaichind, do you know why the right is so much stronger in Aomori than in the rest of the Northeast? iirc even in the Kanto- and Tohoku-driven DPJ landslide in 2009 the LDP held the Aomori seats.

Lets be clear about the Right's overperformance in 青森(Aomori).  LDP overperforms in Lower House elections in 青森(Aomori).  For the PR vote if you look at the Right/Left PRI 青森(Aomori) mostly votes to the Left of Japan since 2004.  In fact in 2019 青森(Aomori) voted 4.37% to the Left of Japan on the PR vote.

The reason why LDP overperforms in Lower House elections in 青森(Aomori) is mostly path dependent.  In rural areas incumbency and name recognition plays a big role.  LDP is fairly strong at the prefecture level which means it has a candidate quality edge relative to the opposition.  The Japanese Lower House election of dual listing of candidates in district and PR section on a best loser basis means in many districts the second place candidate (mostly Center-Left Opposition) are still elected on the PR slate.  What I noticed is that MP that wins on the PR slate but lost the district seat is still considered by the voters of said district still view that MP as an incumbent which keeps him/her competitive in the next election.

In 青森(Aomori) due to the large candidate quality gap the Center-Left opposition candidate never did well enough to get elected on the PR slate which in a vicus cycle means they have less of a chance of doing well in the next election.  LDP also being elected here and no Center-Left Opposition MPs means that local politicians will continue to join LDP for career advancement which in turn add to the LDP candidate quality gap.   So how the Center-Left opposition does is often bimodal where if the Center-Left Opposition gets competitive that helps it maintain being competitive and vice versa.

In the 2016 Upper House elections DP ran a quality candidate with deep family roots in the prefecture (her father was LDP kingpin before defecting to the DPJ) and was able to defeat a LDP incumbent.  She herself was a MP before 2012 winning only on the PR slate via the path of best loser.  This shows that the Center-Left Opposition can win here if it can close the candidate quality gap and keep that gap small.
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« Reply #45 on: February 09, 2021, 01:05:21 PM »

jaichind, do you know why the right is so much stronger in Aomori than in the rest of the Northeast? iirc even in the Kanto- and Tohoku-driven DPJ landslide in 2009 the LDP held the Aomori seats.

Lets be clear about the Right's overperformance in 青森(Aomori).  LDP overperforms in Lower House elections in 青森(Aomori).  For the PR vote if you look at the Right/Left PRI 青森(Aomori) mostly votes to the Left of Japan since 2004.  In fact in 2019 青森(Aomori) voted 4.37% to the Left of Japan on the PR vote.

The reason why LDP overperforms in Lower House elections in 青森(Aomori) is mostly path dependent.  In rural areas incumbency and name recognition plays a big role.  LDP is fairly strong at the prefecture level which means it has a candidate quality edge relative to the opposition.  The Japanese Lower House election of dual listing of candidates in district and PR section on a best loser basis means in many districts the second place candidate (mostly Center-Left Opposition) are still elected on the PR slate.  What I noticed is that MP that wins on the PR slate but lost the district seat is still considered by the voters of said district still view that MP as an incumbent which keeps him/her competitive in the next election.

In 青森(Aomori) due to the large candidate quality gap the Center-Left opposition candidate never did well enough to get elected on the PR slate which in a vicus cycle means they have less of a chance of doing well in the next election.  LDP also being elected here and no Center-Left Opposition MPs means that local politicians will continue to join LDP for career advancement which in turn add to the LDP candidate quality gap.   So how the Center-Left opposition does is often bimodal where if the Center-Left Opposition gets competitive that helps it maintain being competitive and vice versa.

In the 2016 Upper House elections DP ran a quality candidate with deep family roots in the prefecture (her father was LDP kingpin before defecting to the DPJ) and was able to defeat a LDP incumbent.  She herself was a MP before 2012 winning only on the PR slate via the path of best loser.  This shows that the Center-Left Opposition can win here if it can close the candidate quality gap and keep that gap small.

So Aomori isn't a right-wing prefecture as such, just one that old-school LDP machines happen to have done very well for themselves in? That makes sense; thanks!
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« Reply #46 on: February 09, 2021, 02:33:10 PM »



So Aomori isn't a right-wing prefecture as such, just one that old-school LDP machines happen to have done very well for themselves in? That makes sense; thanks!

BTW, everything I said about 青森(Aomori) mostly applies to 山形(Yamagata) as well.  The LDP utterly dominates the Lower House and prefecture elections but the governor and Upper House races which are quite competitive.

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« Reply #47 on: February 09, 2021, 07:34:36 PM »

What about 山梨県? What do you expect there?
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« Reply #48 on: February 09, 2021, 09:24:39 PM »
« Edited: February 11, 2021, 03:00:38 PM by jaichind »

Let me write down all prefecture projections:


北海道(Hokkaido):  LDP retains 5th 7th 12th, KP retains 10th, CDP retains 1st 3rd 6th 8th 11th and flips 2nd 4th 9th.
青森(Aomori):  LDP retains 1st-3rd (status quo)
岩手(Iwate): LDP retains 2nd, CDP retains 1st 3rd (status quo)
宮城(Miyagi: LDP retains 3rd 4th 6th, CDP retain 5th and flips 1st 2nd  
秋田(Akita):  LDP retains 3rd, CDP flips 1st 2nd
山形(Yamagata): LDP retains 1st-3rd (status quo)
福島(Fukushima): LDP retain 2nd and 5th, CDP retains 1st 3rd and flips 4th
茨城(Ibaraki): LDP retains 1st-4th, DPP flips 5th, CDP retains 7th and flips 6th
栃木(Tochigi): LDP retains 1st 3rd 4th 5th, CDP retains 2nd (status quo)
群馬(Gunma): LDP retains 1st-5th (status quo)
埼玉(Saitama): LDP retains 2nd 4th 8th-11th 13th-15th, CDP retains 5th 6th and flips 1st 3rd 7th 12th
千葉(Chiba): LDP retains 2nd 3rd 5th 7th-12th, CDP retains 4th and flips 1st 6th 13th
神奈川(Kanagawa): LDP retains 1st-3rd 5th 10th 11th 13th-15th 17th 18th, CDP retain 4th 6th 8th 12th and flips 7th 16th, pro-DPP ind retains 9th
山梨(Yamanashi): LDP retains 2nd, CDP retains 1st (status quo)
東京(Tokyo): LDP retains 2nd-4th 10th 11th 13th 14th 16th 17th 20th 21st (defection from DPP incumbent) 23rd-25th, KP retains 12th, CDP retains 1st 6th 7th 18th and flips 5th 8th 9th 19th 22nd, pro-CDP ind flips 15th
新潟(Niigata): LDP retains 2nd (defection from pro-HP ind) 5th 6th, CDP retains 1st 3rd 4th (status quo if you do not count pro-HP ind defection to LDP as a flip)
富山(Toyama): LDP retains 1st-3rd (status quo)
石川(Ishikawa): LDP retains 1st 2nd, CDP retains 3rd (status quo)
福井(Fukui): LDP retains 1st 2nd (status quo)
長野(Nagano): LDP retains 3rd (HP defection to LDP) 4th 5th, CDP retains 1st 2nd (status quo if you do not count HP defection to LDP as a flip)
岐阜(Gifu): LDP retains 1st-5th (status quo)
静岡(Shizuoka): LDP retains 1st 2nd 4th 7th 8th, LDP rebel and defector from HP retains 5th, CDP retains 6th and flips 3rd
愛知(Aichi): LDP retains 1st 6th 10th 14th 15th and flips 7th, CDP retains 3rd 5th 13th and flips 4th 8th 9th, DPP retains 2nd, pro-DPP Ind retains 11th
三重(Mie): LDP retains 1st 4th, CDP retains 3rd 4th (status quo)
滋賀(Shiga): LDP retains 1st-4th (status quo)
京都(Kyoto): LDP retains 1st 4th 5th, CDP retains 3rd and flips 6th, DPP retains 2nd
大阪(Osaka): LDP retains 2nd 7th 13th, KP retains 3rd 5th 6th 16th, JRP retains 17th 18th 19th and flips (from LDP) 1st 4th 8th 9th 12th 14th 15th, CDP retains 10th 11th
兵庫(Hyōgo): LDP retains 1st 3rd-7th 9th-12th, KP retains 2nd 8th (status quo)
奈良(Nara): LDP retains 2nd 3rd, CDP retains 1st (status quo)
和歌山(Wakayama): LDP retains 2nd 3rd, DPP retains 1st (status quo)
鳥取(Tottori): LDP retains 1st 2nd (status quo)
島根(Shimane): LDP retains 1st 2nd (status quo)
岡山(Okayama): LDP retains 1st 2nd 4th 5th, LDP rebel flips 3rd (status quo given LDP rebel will be retroactively nominated)
広島(Hiroshima): LDP retains 1st 2nd 4th 5th 7th, CDP retains 6th flips 3rd
山口(Yamaguchi): LDP retains 1st-4th (status quo)
徳島(Tokushima): LDP retains 1st 2nd (status quo)
香川(Kagawa): LDP retains 3rd, CDP flips 1st, DPP retains 2nd
愛媛(Ehime): LDP retains 1st 2nd 4th, CDP retains 3rd (status quo)
高知(Kōchi): LDP retains 1st, CDP retains 2nd (status quo)
福岡(Fukuoka): LDP retains 1st 3rd-9th 11th, CDP flips 2nd 10th
佐賀(Saga): CDP retains 1st 2nd (status quo)
長崎(Nagasaki): LDP retains 2nd-4th, DPP retains 1st (status quo)
熊本(Kumamoto): LDP retains 1st-4th (status quo)
大分(Ōita): LDO retains 2nd 3rd, pro-CDP Ind flips 1st
宮崎(Miyazaki): LDP retains 1st-3rd (status quo)
鹿児島(Kagoshima): LDP retains 2nd-4th, CDP retains 1st (status quo)
沖縄(Okinawa): LDP retains 4th, CDP retains 3rd, SDP retains 2nd, JCP retains 1st (status quo)

Most of the rural South and part of rural North will be status quo.  The battlegrounds will be in the North and urban areas in Central Japan.
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« Reply #49 on: February 10, 2021, 10:40:54 AM »
« Edited: February 11, 2021, 02:50:48 PM by jaichind »

My projection for PR are, along with 2017 results, 2019 Upper House PR implied results, by PR region

北海道(Hokkaido)            2017     2019     2021 projection
LDP                                  3          4                3
KP                                    1          1                1
JRP                                   0          0                0
HP                                    1
DPP                                             0                 0
CDP                                 3          2                 3
RS                                               0                 0
SDP                                 0          0                 0
JCP                                  0          1                 1

東北(Tohoku)                  2017     2019     2021 projection
LDP                                  5          7                6
KP                                    1          1                1
JRP                                   0          0                0
HP                                    3
DPP                                             1                 0
CDP                                 3          3                 5
RS                                               0                 0
SDP                                 0          0                 0
JCP                                  1          1                 1

北関東(North Kanto)       2017     2019     2021 projection
LDP                                  7          8                7
KP                                    2          3                3
JRP                                   0          2                1
HP                                    4
DPP                                             1                 0
CDP                                 5          4                 6
RS                                               0                 0
SDP                                 0          0                 0
JCP                                  1          1                 2

南関東(South Kanto)       2017     2019     2021 projection
LDP                                  8          9                8
KP                                    2          3                3
JRP                                   1          2                1
HP                                    4
DPP                                             1                 0
CDP                                 5          4                 7
RS                                               1                 1
SDP                                 0          0                 0
JCP                                  2          2                 2

東京(Tokyo)                   2017     2019     2021 projection
LDP                                  6          7                6
KP                                    2          2                2
JRP                                   0          1                1
HP                                    3
DPP                                             1                 0
CDP                                 4          3                 5
RS                                               1                 1
SDP                                 0          0                 0
JCP                                  2          2                 2

北陸信越(Hokuriku)         2017     2019     2021 projection
LDP                                  5          6                5
KP                                    1          1                1
JRP                                   0          0                0
HP                                    2
DPP                                             1                 0
CDP                                 2          2                 4
RS                                               0                 0
SDP                                 0          0                 0
JCP                                  1          1                 1

東海(Tokai)                     2017     2019     2021 projection
LDP                                  7          9                8
KP                                    2          3                2
JRP                                   1          1                1
HP                                    5
DPP                                             2                 2
CDP                                 5          4                 7
RS                                               1                 0
SDP                                 0          0                 0
JCP                                  1          1                 1

近畿(Kinki)                      2017     2019     2021 projection
LDP                                  9          8                8
KP                                    4          4                4
JRP                                   5          8                8
HP                                    3
DPP                                             1                 0
CDP                                 5          3                 5
RS                                               1                 1
SDP                                 0          0                 0
JCP                                  2          3                 2

中国(Chugoku)               2017     2019     2021 projection
LDP                                  5          6                5
KP                                    2          2                2
JRP                                   0          0                0
HP                                    2
DPP                                             1                 0
CDP                                 2          2                 3
RS                                               0                 0
SDP                                 0          0                 0
JCP                                  0          0                 1

四国(Shikoku)                2017     2019     2021 projection
LDP                                  3          4                3
KP                                    1          1                1
JRP                                   0          0                0
HP                                    1
DPP                                             0                 0
CDP                                 1          1                 2
RS                                               0                 0
SDP                                 0          0                 0
JCP                                  0          0                 0

九州(Kyūshū)                  2017     2019     2021 projection
LDP                                  7          9                7
KP                                    3          3                3
JRP                                   1          1                1
HP                                    4
DPP                                             1                 0
CDP                                 3          3                 6
RS                                               1                 0
SDP                                 1          1                 1
JCP                                  1          1                 2



Total                             2017     2019     2021 projection
LDP                                65         77              66
KP                                  21         24              23
JRP                                  8         14              13
HP                                 32
DPP                                           10                 2
CDP                               38        31               53
RS                                               5                 3
SDP                                 1          1                 1
JCP                                11        14               15

The basic idea is that the DPP vote from 2019 has mostly shifted to CDP with exception of the Rengo union vote.  The Rengo vote are mostly concentrated in industrial 愛知(Aichi) so the DPP vote there might help DPP get some PR seats in 東海(Tokai) but other then that most of the DPP PR vote will go to CDP.  With LDP clearly down relative to 2019 and at best around the same as 2017, JRP surge petering out outside of 大阪(Osaka) and the novelty factor around RS in 2019 in decline, CDP should be in a good position to have a good result in the PR section.

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