If before Election Day, you are told the margins in every state decided by >10%

[ProgressiveModerate]

Who would you think won and why?

I ask those because often so much analysis is focused in on the key swing states while underlying shifts going on in seemingly safe states can be really interesting to look at and tell us a lot.

[CultureKing]

I thought if Trump won OH by more than 7 hed also take PA and given his IA margin id have thought hed taken WI too.

Given the margins in TX I thought he must have won in AZ/GA

Wait, weren't all three decided by less than 10%? In which case they'd simply be blank.

- Based on Colorado (!!!) I'd assume Arizona went to Biden.
- Based on Illinois margin and Iowa less than 10% I'd give Wisconsin+Michigan+Minnesota to Biden and Iowa to Trump
- Based on Virginia, Maryland, and New Jersey I'd hand Pennsylvania to Biden and Ohio to Trump (though would have guessed a margin of 2-3% for OH, so wrong there). I would also probably have put North Carolina in Biden camp (wrong).
- New York and New Jersey would push me to give Florida to Biden (wrong)
- South Carolina would lead me to give Georgia to Trump (wrong).
- New Mexico, Colorado, and Kansas would indicate a close race in Texas, but one I'd still hand to Trump
- Maine coming in under 10% would be a bummer and disappointment.

..in this scenario I'd have North Carolina as the closest state.

Alaska would have drawn a lot of attention but little in terms of conclusions you can draw.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I thought if Trump won OH by more than 7 hed also take PA and given his IA margin id have thought hed taken WI too.

Given the margins in TX I thought he must have won in AZ/GA

Wait, weren't all three decided by less than 10%? In which case they'd simply be blank.

- Based on Colorado (!!!) I'd assume Arizona went to Biden.
- Based on Illinois margin and Iowa less than 10% I'd give Wisconsin+Michigan+Minnesota to Biden and Iowa to Trump
- Based on Virginia, Maryland, and New Jersey I'd hand Pennsylvania to Biden and Ohio to Trump (though would have guessed a margin of 2-3% for OH, so wrong there). I would also probably have put North Carolina in Biden camp (wrong).
- New York and New Jersey would push me to give Florida to Biden (wrong)
- South Carolina would lead me to give Georgia to Trump (wrong).
- New Mexico, Colorado, and Kansas would indicate a close race in Texas, but one I'd still hand to Trump
- Maine coming in under 10% would be a bummer and disappointment.

..in this scenario I'd have North Carolina as the closest state.

Alaska would have drawn a lot of attention but little in terms of conclusions you can draw.

Oh oops I read this as less than 10 for some reason, my bad . Ok Il will edit that map out

[OSR stands with Israel]

[It's Time.]

Biden did well in safe states.

[It's Time.]

Same but blue Florida.

[bagelman]

Here's the battleground map. Colorado and Virginia make me fairly optimistic but Maine is a small but meaningful warning sign against a decent landslide.

[MRS. MEE SUM CHU]

I would have been mildly alarmed at the R swings in CA (possible warning sign for NV and AZ), NY, NJ, and HI- but also somewhat optimistic about CO, MA, MD, and KS.

Tossup/Tilt Biden.