You Are Told This About Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina Before November 3
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  You Are Told This About Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina Before November 3		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: You Are Told This About Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina Before November 3  (Read 1708 times)
Progressive Pessimist
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« on: January 17, 2021, 08:09:37 PM »
« edited: January 17, 2021, 08:12:56 PM by Progressive Pessimist »
Let's say the only thing you know before the election is that Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina will be decided by 3.4, 0.24, and 1.35 points. You don't know who wins the states or which margin belongs to which state. What would you have thought?

I, embarrassingly, would have said that Biden wins Florida by 1.35% and North Carolina by 0.24% while Trump wins Georgia by 3.4%.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #1 on: January 17, 2021, 08:13:55 PM »
I would have guessed the same as you. I wasn't convinced Georgia was there yet for Democrats.
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South Dakota Democrat
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« Reply #2 on: January 17, 2021, 08:16:22 PM »
Quote from: Progressive Pessimist on January 17, 2021, 08:09:37 PM
Let's say the only thing you know before the election is that Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina will be decided by 3.4, 0.24, and 1.35 points. You don't know who wins the states or which margin belongs to which state. What would you have thought?

I, embarrassingly, would have said that Biden wins Florida by 1.35% and North Carolina by 0.24% while Trump wins Georgia by 3.4%.

I would have said that Biden wins them all...Florida by 3.4%, North Carolina by 1.35%, and Georgia by 0.24%.
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It's Time.
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« Reply #3 on: January 17, 2021, 08:20:04 PM »
Trump wins Florida by 3.4%, GA by 1.4%, NC by 0.2%
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ChiefFireWaterMike
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« Reply #4 on: January 17, 2021, 09:35:30 PM »
GA by 3.4, FL by 1.35, and NC by .24, guessing something crazy happened at the last moment to swing North Carolina
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #5 on: January 17, 2021, 09:52:49 PM »
Biden wins FL by 3.4 and GA by 1.35, while Trump carries NC by 0.2

I'd guess Biden wins the PV by 6 or so, and assuming FL/NC remain statically R+3 and R+6 of the nation...where else could they fit?

This leaves Georgia left to continue the swing left...y'know, like from 2012 to 2016! The only "not there yet" that would make any sense was Raffensberger rigging it like 2018...which he didn't.
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Mr. Third-Wayist
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« Reply #6 on: January 17, 2021, 10:32:40 PM »
Biden wins FL by 1.35 NC by 0.2 trump wins GA by 3.4
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Catalyst138
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« Reply #7 on: January 17, 2021, 10:38:34 PM »
I would say Biden wins NC by 3.4, FL by 1.35 and GA by 0.2. I never believed FL had the ability to vote for either candidate by more than 2 points.
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Neptunium
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« Reply #8 on: January 17, 2021, 10:40:12 PM »
Trump win all three state with Fl slightest margin and GA largest.

Trump lose the reelection by losing the up-midwest three state.
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bagelman
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« Reply #9 on: January 17, 2021, 11:01:15 PM »
Biden wins with NC largest, FL middle, GA smallest. I would be least confident about the order between FL and GA.
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MoreThanPolitics
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« Reply #10 on: January 17, 2021, 11:23:56 PM »
NC: Biden +0.24
FL: Trump +1.35
GA: Trump +3.4
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100% pro-life no matter what
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« Reply #11 on: January 18, 2021, 12:08:56 PM »
I had Biden winning with the 290-248 map, so I would have gone with all 3 going Republican.  I was going back and forth on the order of those 3 states, though, so I would have had no idea which would be which margin.
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Kuumo
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« Reply #12 on: January 18, 2021, 12:45:47 PM »
The +3.4 margin would be very perplexing since I would have been surprised to see any of these states decided by that wide of a margin for either candidate.

If Biden won with his real map -GA (and maybe +NC) as I was expecting:
NC: Trump +0.24
FL: Trump +1.35
GA: Trump +3.4

If the 413 NUT map believers were right:
NC: Biden +3.4
GA: Biden +1.35
FL: Biden +0.24

I definitely didn't realize how real the trends were in GA and underestimated Republicans' ceiling in FL.
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JoeInator
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« Reply #13 on: January 18, 2021, 12:53:51 PM »
FL: Biden +3.4
GA: Trump +0.24
NC: Biden +1.35

I would've been 3 for 3 for guessing the margins for each state but 0 for 3 for guessing who won what.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #14 on: January 18, 2021, 02:05:03 PM »
I would have assumed FL Biden +3.4, NC Biden +1.35 and GA Biden +0.24.  I would have expected Trump +2-3 in NC and GA and Trump +0.5 in FL if I knew only the NPV result. 
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Motorcity
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« Reply #15 on: January 21, 2021, 08:55:51 AM »
Quote from: JoeInator on January 18, 2021, 12:53:51 PM
FL: Biden +3.4
GA: Trump +0.24
NC: Biden +1.35

I would've been 3 for 3 for guessing the margins for each state but 0 for 3 for guessing who won what.
This is what I would have said, because that's basically what polls had

Interesting enough, the polls for Georgia was almost 100% exact while the rest of the country was off 2-4 points. Or 6 points in WI
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UncleSam
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« Reply #16 on: January 21, 2021, 12:29:11 PM »
I’d have said FL goes to Biden by .2, NC to Trump by 1.2, GA toTrump by 3.4

GA was where I was most wrong this election
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Chips
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« Reply #17 on: January 21, 2021, 02:27:20 PM »
Florida - Trump+0.2
North Carolina - Trump+1.3
Georgia - Trump+3.4

These were actually basically what I thought would happen in those states.
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Mr.Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #18 on: January 21, 2021, 04:38:59 PM »
More AA are moving to GA than NC and FL is influenced by the Cuban Embargo, the Cubans are Conservative just like AA in OH and IN are more socially Conservative than other Midwestern states due to gun ownership and live in more rural and suburban communicaties than urban
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