IL, MD and PA flip. No other changes.
Bush still very narrowly wins it I think.
It was very close in OTL, but in this scenario I still think that Bush would win it on the back of his appeal to suburbanites on the whole "tough on crime" schtick. For Dukakis to win, one would probably need to peel back one other layer of gaffe, probably the death penalty question given the suburban focus on justice issues in the campaign that Bush expertly tapped into with the Horton ad et al.
