India 2021 assembly elections - TN, Kerala, WB, Assam, and perhaps J&K

[omar04]

Back in the 1980s Indians voted in assembly elections as if they were LS elections.  In the 1990s to 2010s Indians voted in LS elections as if they were assembly elections. Now they clearly split their vote.

In 2019 Delhi was voting for PM so the anti-Modi vote went INC since Rahul Gandhi was the main alternative to Modi but when it came to assembly elections the voting was based on voting for CM.

What factors created such a large gap between the assembly and LS elections in Delhi? They're the exact opposite in terms of BJP results. I get the split ticket voting factor but such a see saw result seems pretty abnormal.

Also, thank you for your extensive coverage of Indian elections, I've personally learned a lot reading what you have posted on here and other threads.

[omar04]

https://indianexpress.com/article/india/bjp-gujarat-bhupendra-patel-cm-reactions-7504222/

"‘Bhupendra Patel will bring BJP back to power’, say party leaders; ‘remote-controlled’, alleges Congress"

In a surprise first time MLA Bhupendra Patel was made BJP CM of Gujarat.  Bhupendra Patel has deep roots in Ahmedabad local politics before becoming MLA in 2017.  His choice most mean that BJP internal polling shows erosion of its urban base as well as the Patel vote.  Bhupendra Patel is expected to try to shore up the BJP urban vote in the 2022 assembly elections.  It seems BJP is now forgoing a landslide sweep in 2022 and focusing on a narrow victory over the INC based on sweeping the the urban seats. 

Interesting choice. Him being a low key politician prior to his appointment may have been an attractive factor as well. They also might want to shore up the Patel vote after AAP inroads in the civil polls earlier this year and prior Patel dissatisfaciton with the BJP over quotas.

https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/five-reasons-why-bhupendra-patel-was-chosen-gujarat-cm-7506726/

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/aap-wins-27-seats-in-the-municipal-corporation-polls-kejriwal-holds-roadshow/articleshow/81234544.cms?from=mdr

[omar04]

https://www.outlookindia.com/website/story/india-news-himachal-cm-dismisses-rumours-of-leadership-change-as-delhi-visit-fuels-speculation/394603

[omar04]

https://www.outlookindia.com/website/story/india-news-himachal-cm-dismisses-rumours-of-leadership-change-as-delhi-visit-fuels-speculation/394603

Wow, other than UP the BJP might end up swapping out all its CMs for states that will have elections in 2022 or 2023.  I think the BJP might also end up changing its CM in Trupura  as well eventually.

I think the Himachal CM is decently situated since the state isn't doing too bad COVID wise so far and he hasn't alienated any major figures. The Tripura CM's successor will almost certainly be critical with the TMC and TIPRA expanding and IPFT being wiped out in the interim.

[omar04]

https://twitter.com/NewsArenaIndia/status/1446301853864509441