India 2021 assembly elections - TN, Kerala, WB, Assam, and perhaps J&K

[randomusername]

https://www.deccanherald.com/national/national-politics/ljp-implodes-five-mps-oust-chirag-paswan-as-leader-elect-pashupati-kumar-paras-997396.html

"LJP implodes, five MPs oust Chirag Paswan as leader, elect Pashupati Kumar Paras"

This is Nitish Kumar's payback to BJP for using LJP to cut JD(U) down to size in the 2020 assembly elections.  Now Nitish Kumar strikes back by forming an alliance with Pashupati Kumar Paras who is the uncle of LJP leader Chirag Paswan.  I assume all this are moves to eventually merge LJP into JD(U) and leave Chirag Paswan out in the cold with a rump LJP.

It seems by the next Bihar assembly elections BJP and JD(U) will not be on the same side and Nitish Kumar are cleaning out a potential BJP ally.

Any chance that the younger Paswan could defect to another party?

In a sense, this seems like a gift to Tejashwi Yadav. Now he seems to be the sole youth leader in a potential post-Nitish world.

I don't think Paswan would join the RJD since he'd be junior to Tejashwi. I think he could be a potential get for the INC, but that could hurt them with the upper-caste vote.

[randomusername]

https://www.deccanherald.com/national/national-politics/ljp-implodes-five-mps-oust-chirag-paswan-as-leader-elect-pashupati-kumar-paras-997396.html

"LJP implodes, five MPs oust Chirag Paswan as leader, elect Pashupati Kumar Paras"

This is Nitish Kumar's payback to BJP for using LJP to cut JD(U) down to size in the 2020 assembly elections.  Now Nitish Kumar strikes back by forming an alliance with Pashupati Kumar Paras who is the uncle of LJP leader Chirag Paswan.  I assume all this are moves to eventually merge LJP into JD(U) and leave Chirag Paswan out in the cold with a rump LJP.

It seems by the next Bihar assembly elections BJP and JD(U) will not be on the same side and Nitish Kumar are cleaning out a potential BJP ally.

Any chance that the younger Paswan could defect to another party?

In a sense, this seems like a gift to Tejashwi Yadav. Now he seems to be the sole youth leader in a potential post-Nitish world.

I don't think Paswan would join the RJD since he'd be junior to Tejashwi. I think he could be a potential get for the INC, but that could hurt them with the upper-caste vote.

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/isolated-in-ljp-chiras-paswan-sees-offer-from-congress-rjd-1814994-2021-06-15

"Isolated in LJP, Chirag Paswan sees offer from Congress, RJD"

It seems you are right that both RJD and INC seems to want Chirag Paswan. Still I think Chirag Paswan sees his future with BJP as part of a future anti-Nitish Kumar bloc.

I agree that he wants to be a part of a future anti-Nitish block, I think our difference of opinion is with who Nitish ultimately allies with. I'm going with the assumption that Nitish will stay with the BJP, despite not being comfortable with them.

It seems the BJP are blaming Chirag for the split in the LJP: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/patna/bjp-hints-at-berth-for-pashupati-kumar-paras-in-union-cabinet/articleshow/83520552.cms

I wonder if that motivates him further to jump ship. I think the Congress would be happy to have him, but I do wonder if that would hurt their perceived strength with upper-Castes.

[randomusername]

https://www.deccanherald.com/state/karnataka-politics/karnataka-bjp-meet-opens-a-can-of-worms-998560.html

"Karnataka BJP meet opens a can of worms"

The BJP Karnataka crisis continues to fester.   It seems Yeddyurappa want to push his son Raghavendra into a more senior role to prepare for the day he has to retire  while his enemies within the BJP want him out as CM now claiming his move toward nepotism and corruption (just like his enemies claimed 10 years ago.)   The BJP High Command have sent representatives to try to work out a solution.  If they do decided that Yeddyurappa  has to go they risk angering the Lingayats and repeat the events 10 years ago in 2011 when Yeddyurappa (then called Yediyurappa) was ousted as BJP CM and he was able to rally his Lingayats to follow him in a rebellion against the BJP.  So far everything is playing out exactly the same as 10 years ago.

If Yeddyurappa were to bolt, what do you think are the immediate consequences?