India 2021 assembly elections - TN, Kerala, WB, Assam, and perhaps J&K (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 02:43:20 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  India 2021 assembly elections - TN, Kerala, WB, Assam, and perhaps J&K (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: India 2021 assembly elections - TN, Kerala, WB, Assam, and perhaps J&K  (Read 31566 times)
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,350


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

« on: March 28, 2021, 06:51:03 PM »


Can Rahul Gandhi's brand really withstand another defeat in 2024? Or do you think the INC can do well enough for him to emerge stronger, even if UPA concedes the government to the NDA once again?

I personally think Rahul Gandhi needs to make himself the undisputed leader of INC. They can't keep going back to Sonia Gandhi the moment it looks his brand is threatened. INC also needs to get the old guard and palace politicians close to Sonia Gandhi to retire. Promote leaders like Sachin Pilot in Rajasthan before its too late. Jyoti Rao Scindia was another prominent young face, but he went over to the BJP because INC kept favouring old faces like Digvijay Singh and Kamal Nath.

In any normal party, no.  In case INC does well enough in this round of elections leading to the return of Rahul Gandhi back in charge and he manages to lose 2024 as it is likely most normal parties would kick him out for good.  Unfortunately  for INC, it is really a confederation of various factions all looking for a member of the Gandhi family to settle disputes and be the main vote getter.  Last decade or so the Gandhi family vote has dwindled so this system is breaking down.  Still I think there is still no alternative to the Gandhi family even after a likely 2024 LS election. 

I always felt the way out for INC is to run the party like a franchise.  Still have Rahul Gandhi at the top for branding purposes but delegate the main vote getting to local leaders who in turn get a start in politics with a clear political brand with name recognition.   The Gandhi family then is mostly about running this confederation and in alliance with other parties try to capture national party.  Given the leadership perception gap between Rahul Gandhi and Modi it still means defeat in the LS elections but does allow INC to live to fight another day when Modi retires and the population tires of BJP.

The INC strategy of trying to run out the clock could mean probably at least another 10 years before they have a chance of winning power again and after 18-20 years of BJP rule then even if congress gets back in, much of the changes implemented by the BJP will have long been cemented and almost impossible to roll back
Logged
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,350


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

« Reply #1 on: April 21, 2021, 11:57:58 PM »

Do you think the WB trend to the BJP is a long term trend
Logged
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,350


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

« Reply #2 on: April 30, 2021, 03:18:53 AM »
« Edited: April 30, 2021, 03:24:05 AM by Old School Republican »

Just to be clear, a history of BJP MLAs elected from past WB assembly elections

1991 : 0
1996 : 0
2001 : 0
2006 : 0
2011 : 0
2016 : 3

This time around they seem likely to get at least 100 seats if not a majority.  Incredible surge.

Wait they only got 3 seats in 2016 and now are expected to get over 100!


Logged
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,350


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

« Reply #3 on: May 01, 2021, 01:53:46 AM »

Too early to say if Modi will lose in 2024? My gut says he does if Trump did and Bolsonaro more than likely will, though politics is different in each of those 3 countries (or so it seems coming from an American).

The pandemic will almost certainly not be an issue in 2024 so I dont think that comparison really works. Also Trump almost won reelection during the pandemic itself against a far stronger candidate than anyone the Congress party is likely to nominate and the Democratic party itself is no where near as unpopular as Congress.

Logged
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,350


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

« Reply #4 on: May 01, 2021, 02:40:37 AM »
« Edited: May 01, 2021, 02:44:23 AM by Old School Republican »

The answer, as always, is "it remains to be seen". Certainly prevailing opinion is still that 2024 is Modi's to lose. But things can always change. Even if the pandemic doesn't sink Modi completely, it could make him more vulnerable + allow a potentially more coherent oppositon/alternative to him to emerge.

To counter OSR's point, "the Democratic Party" is not at all a popular institution either! If Biden was seen the way the electorate sees a 'standard Democratic politician', he would have lost. He won because he separated himself and presented himself as a uniquely stabilizing figure.

Similarly, any opposition to Modi/BJP at this point has to come with that first and foremost; a presentable alternative as a plausible Prime Minister. And right now, it's very difficult to point to one person who can emerge as that. Especially within INC. Rahul has been tried twice before and quite frankly is not an easy person to picture as PM. They may try to present him as "matured" or whatever but I think (hope?) at this point that even they realize this is too stupid to try again (though this is Congress, so you never know). Priyanka could be a slightly better choice, as she's more popular and not generally seen as a bumbling idiot kid, but still...I'm rather skeptical on her, as well. Would take a radical shift within Congress for them to pick someone other than those two right now, and so without some credible alternative emerging Modi may well just end up as the only man standing.

Yes Modi absolutely could be vulnerable but not with the INC as its constituted at the moment and it doesnt seem like they will make the major changes needed to win in 2024 and I dont think its a realistic goal as well .I think a more realistic expectation is for the INC is to have its Neil Kinnock moment in which they like the Labour party in the mid 80s are able to first stop the party's seemingly perpetual free fall and then begin the transition into making the party electable again .

The hard work Kinnock did help create the groundwork for the Tony Blair years




Logged
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,350


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

« Reply #5 on: May 02, 2021, 02:22:17 AM »

So how big of a loss is this result for the BJP
Logged
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,350


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

« Reply #6 on: October 08, 2021, 10:07:48 PM »

Is the farm protests kinda resembling for Modi what the coal miners were for Thatcher
Logged
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,350


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

« Reply #7 on: October 31, 2021, 12:16:41 PM »

Question do results of cricket tournaments increase or decrease politicians popularity in India like they apparently do in Europe with Soccer . Asking this given this disastrous performance by India at the T20 World Cup
Logged
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,350


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

« Reply #8 on: December 15, 2021, 03:48:28 AM »

How does the BJP look compared to this point in 2016(2.5 years in to that term)
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.035 seconds with 12 queries.