India 2021 assembly elections - TN, Kerala, WB, Assam, and perhaps J&K

[jaichind]

329 out of 334 seats is impressive even with that vote share......

It is.  Note this is only for urban Tripura.  A few months ago local elections for tribal parts of Tripura had a surprising defeat of BJP and allies at the hands of INC tribal splinter TIPRA.

[jaichind]

In the Tripura Municipal elections, AITC only contested half the wards and won 16.4% of the vote.   There are signs that the Left Front might be falling apart as they now lose control of local bodies with this election.  If 2018 was the collapse of INC with BJP taking over the role of the main anti-Left Front party and defeating the Left Front then 2023 might be the collapse of the Left Front with AITC taking over the role as the main anti-BJP party.  We would have gone from a Left Front vs INC state in 2013 to a BJP vs AITC state in 2023.

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/goa-forward-party-former-key-bjp-ally-pledges-support-to-congress-2631092

"Goa Forward Party, Former Key BJP Ally, To Join Congress In State Polls"

GFP to form an alliance with INC.   INC also working on roping in NCP and perhaps even MAG.  A significant anti-BJP front is being formed.  Potentially this can rope in anti-BJP tactical voting from AAP and AITC.

[jaichind]

Lok Poll polls for early 2022 assembly elections

UP
BJP+          183
SP+           159
INC             27 !!!
BSP             19
Others         15


Punjab
INC             72 !!!
SAD-BSP      21
AAP             18
Others           6


Uttarakhand
INC             34
BJP             31
BSP              1
Others          4


Manipur
BJP             24
INC             23
NPF               3
Others         10

Goa
UPA            19
  INC            15
  GFP             3
  NCP             1
BJP             14
MGP             3
AAP              1
Others          3

These numbers look believable for Uttarakhand, Manipur, and Goa, and in all 3 I can argue that they might be overestimating BJP.  But for Punjab and UP these numbers look too good for INC and seem unlikely.

[jaichind]

https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/mumbai/shiv-sena-snubs-mamata-banerjee-alliance-without-congress-7656029/

"Shiv Sena hits out at Mamata Banerjee, bats for Congress-led Oppn alliance"

This is a headline two years ago one would think is impossible.   Recently AITC has been hitting out against INC indicating that given INC's weak leadership there is no chance of beating BJP in 2024 if INC led the opposition.  SHS came out in defense of INC saying that there is no alternative to INC as the main national opposition party to the BJP.

[jaichind]

Back in 2017, the BJP was on a massive recruiting drive in UP to round up quality candidates.  It paid off.


The BJP in 2017 recruited 21 sitting MLAs from other parties.  19 of them won


The BJP in 2017 recruited 69 non-MLA members from other parties (usually former candidates).  58 of them won

 


2017 was a BJP wave election but part of the BJP victory was getting good political talent to join BJP.

[jaichind]

Latest ABP C-Voter Survey

UP
             Seats     Vote share
BJP+       218          40.4%
SP+        157           33.6%
BSP          18           13.2%
INC            6             7.3%
Others        4             5.5%


Goa
            Seat         Vote share
BJP         19            30.0%
AAP          7             24.4%
INC+        6            19.7%
Others      8            25.9% (includes MGP)


Punjab
            Seat          Vote Share
AAP        53             38.4%             
INC        42             34.1%
SAD-BSP 20             20.4%
BJP           1              2.6%
Others      1              4.5%


Uttarakhand
            Seat          Vote Share
BJP         36              39.8%
INC         32              35.7%
AAP          2               12.6%


Manipur
           Seat           Vote Share
BJP         31              37.9%
INC         25              34.3%
NPF           4               8.6%

INC is for sure out in Punjab.  BJP holds narrow leads in the other states where it is the ruling party and there is a good chance in all of them BJP will be defeated.

[jaichind]

https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/goa/mgp-announces-alliance-with-tmc-ahead-of-goa-assembly-polls-7659083/

"TMC, MGP to contest Goa polls in alliance"

In Goa, MGP forms an alliance with AITC.  AITC has attracted a few INC defectors in Goa but does not have a real base here.  All things equal MGP is trying to ride on the potential national appeal of AITC while AITC is trying to ride on the MGP base in Goa. 

The logic of anti-BJP tactical voting will still be on the side of INC-GFP.  I do think if this new MGP-AITC alliance forms an alliance with AAP then that will be a threat to INC-GFP and I can see a 3 way split of the vote with the BJP winning in a landslide.  AAP tends to be over polled in urban areas outside of Delhi so unless MGP AAP and AITC all get together the Goa election will still be a BJP vs INC-GFP batttle.

[jaichind]

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/former-goa-cm-ravi-naik-join-bjp-today-congress-1884983-2021-12-07

"Former Goa CM and Congress MLA Ravi Naik likely to join BJP today"

With this defection, out of the INC 17 MLAs elected in 2017, 13 have defected to BJP, 1 defected to AITC, and 3 are still with INC. 

[OSR stands with Israel]

How does the BJP look compared to this point in 2016(2.5 years in to that term)

[jaichind]

CSDS poll of Youth.  55% prefer a government job which is at least lower than 65% 10 years ago.  This is why caste politics is so powerful at the assembly level since the state government has a lot of power over the caste structure of caste nature of government job caste quotas.

[jaichind]

How does the BJP look compared to this point in 2016(2.5 years in to that term)

well, in Punjab the SAD-BJP alliance is over so BJP will be zero in Punjab in 2022.  At least in 2017 there is a prospect of the BJP winning a handful of seats in Hindu areas of Punjab.

In 2016 BJP was viewed as a lock on Goa and Manipur.  Polls in 2016 showed that AAP will split the anti-BJP vote and the BJP will win in a landslide.  This time some polls also have AAP splitting the anti-BJP vote but BJP should have a narrow victory.  In Manipur, this time around the poll shows a narrow BJP lead over INC whereas in 2016 I believe the BJP lead was greater.

In  UP the SP civil war in late 2016 ate up all the political oxygen so the BJP was not polling that great and was neck-to-neck with SP.  This time the BJP has a significant but not large lead over SP

For Uttarakhand clearly, this time around the polling for BJP is not as positive as 2016 as the 2016 Uttarakhand ruling INC was falling apart with a good section of the INC leadership split and moving to BJP. 

So all things equal the polls now, other than UP, are not as positive for BJP as in late 2016.

[jaichind]

https://www.thequint.com/news/india/bjp-punjab-lok-congress-confirm-thier-alliance-ahead-of-2022-assembly-polls?utm_source=moengage&utm_medium=push-notification

"BJP, Amarinder Singh Confirm Alliance Ahead of 2022 Punjab Assembly Polls"

In Punjab former INC CM Amarinder's INC splinter PLC will form an alliance with BJP.  Most likely this will not go well for both sides and if anything could help INC by splitting the anti-INC vote in Sikh areas.

[jaichind]

http://www.uniindia.com/~/congress-offers-support-to-npp-led-government-in-meghalaya/States/news/2596217.html

"Congress offers to support NPP-led government in Meghalaya"

A couple of weeks after the majority of the INC caucus in Meghalaya split and the majority faction joining the AITC what remains of INC had decided to join the NPP-led government which in theory includes the BJP.  Politics in Meghalaya has been INC vs NPP over the last decade.  NPP is the anti-INC splinter of NCP which itself was a splinter of INC.  This move seems to indicaete the latest INC split has moved the core INC vote over to AITC and in order to survive the INC seems to want to ally with NPP.  This move also means that NPP might be looking for ways to move away from BJP and toward INC.

[jaichind]

The poverty rate in India by state.  High correlation with Hindi. Note that UP is very diverse.  East UP is like Bihar and West UP is like Haryana.

[jaichind]

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/delimitation-panel-proposes-6-additional-seats-for-jammu-1-for-kashmir-1889899-2021-12-20

"Delimitation Panel proposes 6 additional seats for Jammu, 1 for Kashmir"

J&K delimitation exercises making progress.  If so then we can expect J&K assembly elections in 2022.  In 2019 J&K assembly was suspended and Ladakh detached to become a Union territory.

If they add 6 seats to Jammu and 1 to Kashmir it will be Kashmir 47 Jammu 43.  In an assembly election BJP most likely can sweep 36-38 of the Jammu seats but unless there is a boycott of voting Kashmir there is no way the BJP can win any seats in Kashmir.  In Jammu there are several Muslim majority enclaves ergo the cap for BJP in Jammu is most likely 36-38.  The most likely result of a J&K election would be a JKN-PDP government with outside support of INC if necessary to get to majority.

[jaichind]

2021 Kolkata Municipal Corporation election

Massive landslide for AITC
       
             Seats     Vote share
AITC       134          72%
BJP            3             9%
Left Front   2           12%
INC            2            4%
Others       3             3%

Turnout was well over 60% so the massive AITC vote share seems more about the fact that the BJP has given up and did not even try to mobilize its vote while the AITC vote base plus independents came out in force to vote AITC.

Left Front vote share beating BJP does not mean that Left Front is coming back as the main opposition to AITC.  Left Front outperformance over BJP seems to be located in the Upper Middle wards.  These days the Left Front is a de facto Upper Middle-class party in urban areas.  The old lower class Left Front vote has mostly gone over to the BJP.  So outside of Kolkata where there is no Upper Middle class vote the BJP is still the main opposition to AITC.

[jaichind]

Jan Ki Baat- India News Opinion Poll for UP

         Seats   Vote Share
BJP      243      39%
SP       142       35%
BSP       12       14%
INC         4         5%
OTH        2         7%

Polarization between BJP and SP

Vote share breakdown indicates that BJP holds non-Yadav OBC gains from SP since 2014, INC and BSP lose more of their Muslim base to SP while part of the non-Jatav Dalit vote that has gone over to BJP from BSP since 2014 has mostly stayed with BJP.

[jaichind]

Jan Ki Baat- India News Opinion Poll for Uttarakhand

           Seats    Vote share
BJP       37            39.0%
INC       29            38.2%
AAP        3             11.7%
Others    1             11.1%

If these were the last poll before the election I think INC would win with something like a 3% gap.  For it to be this close a few months before the election is not good for BJP.

[jaichind]

Jan Ki Baat- India News Opinion Poll for Punjab

               Seats     Vote share
AAP            54            37.8%
INC            43            34.7%
SAD           18            20.5%
BJP              2              5.0%

I assume SAD is really SAD-BSP. 

I wonder if the poll takes into account the former INC CM Amarinder's INC splinter PLC alliance with BJP.

I suspect INC will do worse than this and AAP will win a clear majority.

[jaichind]

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/uttarakhand-cabinet-minister-harak-singh-rawat-resigns-1891926-2021-12-24

"Uttarakhand minister Harak Singh Rawat resigns from cabinet"

Harak Singh Rawat was with INC until 2017 when he defected to BJP just in time to win on the BJP ticket in the 2017 BJP landslide.   A few other BJP MLAs that seem to be allied with Harak Singh Rawat are also going to resign. 

There was a mass exodus and defection of INC MLA ranks in 2017 right before the election.  It was so massive that the Uttarakhand BJP elected in 2017 was called "Modi's INC."  Now it seems a smaller version of the same thing might be taking place in reverse.  I assume most of these BJP MLAs will defect to INC although some might jump to AAP.

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/goa-news/goa-assembly-election-5-leaders-quit-trinamool-congress-say-mamata-banerjeels-party-has-not-understood-goa-2670786#pfrom=home-ndtv_topscroll

"'Trinamool Hasn't Understood Goa': 5 Leaders Quit Ahead Of State Polls"

Some INC defectors to AITC have left AITC claiming that AITC is "communal".  These leaders claim that the recent AITC-MAG alliance is meant to push Christian votes toward AITC and Hindu votes to MAG. 

The right way to read these complaints is: The seats these defectors were hoping to run in are likely to be allocated by AITC to MAG so as a result, these recent defectors to AITC are out.

[jaichind]

Chandigarh Municipal Corporation

Surprise plurality for AAP in close 3 way battle between INC BJP and AAP where the vote share and seat count a completely inverted

           Seats        Vote
AAP        14        27.08%
BJP         12        29.30%
INC           8       29.79%
SAD          1         6.26%





Back in 2016 it was BJP 20 INC 4 SAD 1 and IND 1.

Overall bad news for INC as far as implications for Punjab next year given the AAP surge this time.

[jaichind]

A poll from the summer on Indian youth assessment of employment situation.  The feedback for Punjab is especially poor (despite the fact that Punjab is one of the richest Indian states) and bodes ill for INC.  Punjab's wealth is in agriculture and if Punjab youth have a bias for looking for non-agriculture employment I can see why the numbers are what they are.


Other states
The Southern states are viewed as having better employment situations for the youth than the North although higher-income industrial states like Gujarat and Maharashtra are also doing better.

[jaichind]

https://www.republicworld.com/elections/punjab/bjp-sads-and-amarinders-party-to-form-panel-to-decide-seat-sharing-joint-manifesto-soon.html

"BJP, SAD(S) & Amarinder's Party To Form Panel To Decide Seat-sharing; Joint Manifesto Soon"

In Punjab BJP also ropes in SAD splinter SAD(S) in addition to former INC CM Amarinder INC splinter PLC.  All things equal this is just more bad news for SAD and INC in Sikh areas and good news for AAP.  SAD is in big trouble in Punjab and SAD-BSP will most likely be pushed to a weak 3rd place.  When a party like SAD loses 2 elections in a row there is a risk of it falling apart.