India 2021 assembly elections - TN, Kerala, WB, Assam, and perhaps J&K
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
November 26, 2021, 06:39:31 PM

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, afleitch, Hash)
  India 2021 assembly elections - TN, Kerala, WB, Assam, and perhaps J&K
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 29 30 31 32 33 [34]
Author Topic: India 2021 assembly elections - TN, Kerala, WB, Assam, and perhaps J&K  (Read 23456 times)
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,222
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #825 on: October 20, 2021, 06:24:19 AM »

https://www.siasat.com/rajbhar-meets-akhilesh-says-will-go-with-sp-2211470/

"Rajbhar meets Akhilesh, says will go with SP"

Big development in UP.  It seems SBSP will ally with SP.  SBSP is really an OBC BSP splinter that has gone with BJP in the past.  This time around it will go with SP.  SBSP is pretty strong in Purvanchal so this is a significant development. 
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,222
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #826 on: October 20, 2021, 06:30:02 AM »

https://www.livemint.com/politics/news/captain-amarinder-singh-to-launch-a-new-party-ahead-of-punjab-polls-11634661739985.html

"Captain Amarinder Singh to launch new party, says open for a 'seat-sharing pact with BJP in 2022 Punjab polls"

Former Punjab INC CM will launch his own party.   Amarinder Singh has a military background was a friend of Rajiv Gandhi who talked in into joining INC in the early 1980s.  After Operation Bluestar in 1984 he left INC to join SAD.  In 1992 he broke away from SAD to form a SAD splinter SAD(P) which he merged into INC after a poor showing in the 1997 assembly elections.   He was not really in the INC top leadership until 2015 after INC lost 2007 and 2012 election and turned to him to lead the INC back to victory which he did in 2017. 

Now he will lead his own INC splinter party in Punjab.  For INC it is much better his party allies with BJP than AAP.  Given BJP's brand in Punjab his party will do far more damage by joining forces with AAP.  But because AAP expects to win in 2022 by itself the AAP has no incentives to share power with Amarinder Singh so I guess he will have to go it alone or ally with BJP.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,222
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #827 on: October 22, 2021, 10:14:52 AM »

https://www.timesnownews.com/india/bihar/article/bihar-congress-snaps-ties-with-rjd-to-contest-all-40-lok-sabha-seats-in/825777

"Bihar: Congress snaps ties with RJD, to contest all 40 Lok Sabha seats in 2024"

In Bihar INC snaps ties with RJD.  Part of the reason might be that on the long run Rahul Gandhi seems to prefer JD(U) as an ally to RJD in Bihar.  Sooner or later JD(U) and BJP will go their separate ways and INC want to be ready.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,222
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #828 on: October 25, 2021, 05:53:03 PM »

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/chennai/aiadmk-leadership-will-decide-on-sasikala-reinduction-ops/articleshow/87255707.cms

"AIADMK leadership will decide on Sasikala reinduction: OPS"

3 way battle between EPS OPS and Sasikala for control for AIADMK heating up.

History of this battle.

2016 Dec - AIADMK CM Jayaliatha passes away.  OPS becomes CM but Sasikala is the real power of AIADMK and controls the party.

2017 Feb - With corruption investigations catchup up to her Sasikala forces OPS to resign to make room for her to be CM to add to her immunity from these investigations.  OPS resigns as CM but then raises the banner of rebellion against Sasikala.  The pro-BJP governor delays Sasikala becoming CM for the procecution to indite Sasikala.  Sasikala then appoints her loyalist EPS as CM as she is arrest and locked up.

2017 Aug - EPS takes control of AIADMK, makes a deal with OPS and ousts pro-Sasikala forces from AIADMK.  OPS becomes DCM.  Pro-Sasikala forces form AIADMK spliter AMMK.

2017-2021 EPS-OPS conflict continues at a low-intensity Cold War level

2021 Jan - Sasikala let out of jail and starts her campaign to recapture control of AIADMK

2021 May - AIADMK defeated in assembly elections.  OPS starts is offensive to capture control of AIADMK from EPS which is made easier as EPS is no longer CM.  Signs that OPS might form an alliance with Sasikala  to take on EPS   

2021 Nov - OPS openly calls for Sasikala to return to AIADMK in a clear move to cut EPS down to size
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,222
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #829 on: October 30, 2021, 05:35:06 AM »

https://www.financialexpress.com/india-news/bypolls-to-three-lok-sabha-30-assembly-constituencies-tomorrow-voting-time-key-candidates-result-date-all-you-need-to-know/2359469/

Voting today in by-elections for 3 MP and 30 MLAs.  It seems over the last few months 3 MPs and 23 MLAs have died of COVD-19.  Another 7 MLAs defected from one party to another leading to this large number of by-elections taking place at once.

Logged
Old School Republican
Computer89
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,878


Political Matrix
E: 3.23, S: 0.35

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #830 on: October 31, 2021, 12:16:41 PM »

Question do results of cricket tournaments increase or decrease politicians popularity in India like they apparently do in Europe with Soccer . Asking this given this disastrous performance by India at the T20 World Cup
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,222
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #831 on: November 02, 2021, 05:23:31 AM »
« Edited: November 02, 2021, 07:11:13 AM by jaichind »

Mega by-election results out.  Mixed but more positive for INC than for BJP

For the 3 LS seats

Dadra And Nagar Haveli - Was won in 2019 by INC rebel over BJP.  He then passed away.  SHS ran his son who won by a landslide over BJP.  In both 2019 and 2021 INC was driven to low single digits.

HP's Mandi - INC beats BJP  49.2 to 48.1 in a seat where BJP won 68.7 to INC 25.7 in 2019

MP's KHANDWA - BJP beats INC 48.9 to 44.4 in a seat where BJP won 57.1 to INC 38.5


In Assembly by-elections

Assam and WB have the pattern of ruling party sweep in by-elections which takes place right after the assembly election.  Assam had 5 by-elections mostly due to defections to NDA.  NDA swept them all.  WB had 4 by-elections mostly due to BJP defections to AITC.  AITC swept them all.  In Assam AIUDF BPF and RD running separately from INC lead to easy BJP-UPPL wins.  In WB the AITC vote share wins were massive as BJP in many cases were driven to vote shares of 10%-20%.   These results do not reflect real ground strength.

In Bihar JD(U) had to defend 2 seats and despite the RJD-INC vote split, RJD took a seat from JD(U). Not positive to JD(U).

In Haryana INLD successfully defended one of the few seats it ended up winning in 2019.  Not a positive sign for BJP there

In HP INC won all 3 by-elections partly based on BJP rebels in the fray.  Along with the HP MP by-election, this spells big trouble for BJP in the 2022 HP assembly elections which INC now looks likely to win.

In Karnataka, INC took a seat from BJP while BJP took a seat from JD(S).  Somewhat negative signal for BJP for its 2023 assembly election defense of its majority

In MP it is BJP 2 INC 1.  Since these are mostly INC to BJP defections which the BJP were expected to sweep these results again are a somewhat negative signal for BJP in the 2023 assembly election

In Maharastra, INC defended with NCP and SHS not running winning by an almost 20% margin over BJP. This shows a possible SHS-NCP-INC alliance is possible in the 2024 assembly election.  SHS-NCP-INC government gains strength from this result

In Meghalaya UPA allies NPP and UDP contested separately and still beat back INC in all 3 seats.  Positive for NPP in 2023 assembly elections.

Rajasthan - INC wins both seats mostly due to BJP rebels and BJP splinter RLP.  I guess INC might avoid a meltdown in 2023 assembly elections like in 2013 although it is likely to lose 2023 assembly elections.

Telengana - BJP captures seat from TRS with INC driven to single digits.  This shows that in 2023 it will be BJP vs TRS in urban areas and INC vs TRS in rural areas.  INC is at risk of losing its status as the main challenger to TRS to BJP.  TRS losing is also not a good sign for TRS in the 2023 assembly elections.
Logged
eos
Rookie
**
Posts: 123
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #832 on: November 03, 2021, 05:32:22 AM »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o8qAVTnSSVA

Opinion poll for Punjab published 16 October predicting a huge majority for INC. Complete outlier, and I don't know what to make of it really. Suppose Amarinder Singh's party is cutting into the anti-INC vote more so than taking it from them?
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,222
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #833 on: November 03, 2021, 06:34:57 AM »

PAI 2021 governance rankings.   Of the larger states, Kerala is at the top by a large margin with Bihar and UP way at the bottom.  Overall speaking Hindi is an anti-correlation to good governeance. 
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,222
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #834 on: November 05, 2021, 07:11:30 AM »

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/priyanka-gandhi-s-women-centric-promises-only-meant-for-up-polls-say-insiders-101636084691424.html

Priyanka Gandhi announced (this was actually a while ago) that 40% of INC tickets in UP will go to women.  It is not clear if Priyanka Gandhi will be the UP INC CM face.  If so they INC could be a factor in the UP race.  If not then most of the old INC anti-BJP vote will drift to SP while its Upper Caste vote would drift to BJP.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,222
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #835 on: November 09, 2021, 03:45:03 PM »



I agree that he wants to be a part of a future anti-Nitish block, I think our difference of opinion is with who Nitish ultimately allies with. I'm going with the assumption that Nitish will stay with the BJP, despite not being comfortable with them.

It seems the BJP are blaming Chirag for the split in the LJP: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/patna/bjp-hints-at-berth-for-pashupati-kumar-paras-in-union-cabinet/articleshow/83520552.cms

I wonder if that motivates him further to jump ship. I think the Congress would be happy to have him, but I do wonder if that would hurt their perceived strength with upper-Castes.

 https://indianexpress.com/article/india/ljp-chirag-paswan-rjd-tejashwi-yadav-lalu-prasad-7496303/

With LJP split into a pro-JD(U) and anti-JD(U) factions it seems the anti-JD(U) faction Chirag Paswan is meeting with RJD which is most likely a precursor to a Chirag Paswan faction LJP forming an alliance with RJD.  If true it does signal that for now JD(U) and RJD forming an anti-BJP alliance is out for now.  Everything depends on how the 2022 UP assembly election goes which would give a signal how strong BJP is in the Hindi belt.

LJP split is complete.  LJP election symbol is frozen The pro-JD(U) faction will be called RLJP led by    Ram Vilas Paswan's brother Pashupati Kumar Paras while the anti-JD(U) (but in theory still part of NDA) faction will be called LJP(RS) led by Chirag Paswan.

This is sort of similar to when Ram Vilas Paswan first formed LJP in 2000 as part of a split from JD(U).  LJP split from JD(U) but stayed as part of NDA.  Only after the 2002 Gujarat riots did LJP use that as an excuse to exit NDA and join up with UPA.

I suspect on the long run RLJP will just merge into JD(U) while LJP(RS) will end up forming an alliance with RJD.  If JD(U) forms an alliance with RJD in the future LJP(RS) will run back to BJP.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,222
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #836 on: November 11, 2021, 09:21:31 AM »
« Edited: November 11, 2021, 09:35:39 AM by jaichind »

Lok Poll did their survey of 2024 LS elections by surveying state by state for the medium and larger states

 

I made some educated guess for the small states they did not poll and looking over their result state by state with a breakdown of parties within each alliance state by state I get

NDA           255
 BJP             219
 JD(U)           13  (Bihar)
 AIADMK         9  (TN)
 RLJP              2  (Bihar)
 AD                2  (UP)
 PMK              1  (TN)
 AJSU             1  (Jharkhand)
 AGP               1  (Assam)
 UPPL             1   (Assam)
 AINRC           1   (Pondicherry)
 NPF               1  (Manipur)
 NDPP             1  (Nagaland)
 NPP              1  (Meghalaya)
 MNF              1 (Mizoram)
 SKM             1  (Sikkim)

pro-BJP      32
  YSRCP        19 (AP)
  BJD            13 (Odisha)

UPA          152
  INC            94
  SHS           19 (Maharashtra, D&N H)
  DMK          16 (TN)
  NCP           10 (Maharashtra, Lakshadweep)
  JMM            4 (Jharkhand)
  IUML           3 (TN, Kerala)
  VCK            2 (TN)
  JKN            2 (J&K)
  MDMK         1 (TN)
  RSP             1 (Kerala)

Anti-BJP  104
  AITC         34 (WB)
  SP            18 (UP)
  TRS            9 (Telangana)
  RJD            7 (Bihar)
  CPM           7 (Kerala, TN)
  TDP            6 (AP)
  BSP            5 (UP)
  RLD            3 (UP)
  JD(S)         3 (Karnataka)
  CPI            2 (Kerala, TN)
  AIMIM        2 (Telangana, Maharashtra)
  AAP           2 (Delhi, Punjab)
  SAD           2 (Punjab)
  LJP(RV)      1 (Bihar)
  KEC(M)       1 (Kerala)
  AIUDF        1 (Assam)
  
This survey seems to match what the most recent assembly election would suggest with an addition of a Modi bonus for BJP in Hindi areas plus Gujarat.

I am suspicious that in Maharashtra this grand anti-BJP alliance of SHS NCP and INC can be formed and actually work on the ground.  In Bihar, there is a good chance that RJD and INC come together again and RJD join UPA again.  If RJD INC and LJP(RV) form an alliance they could put up a better fight against BJP-JD(U) than these polls would suggest.

Note that many anti-BJP parties are also anti-INC or are hostile to other anti-BJP parties.

In a post-election scenario after a result like this poll, the BJP will form a government with support from  YSRCP and BJD plus some other anti-BJP parties or even SHS.  SHS is in UPA only because they are threatened by BJP growing too big in Maharashtra.  If the BJP is cut down to size, they will be glad to go back to an alliance with BJP.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,222
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #837 on: November 12, 2021, 07:01:01 AM »
« Edited: November 12, 2021, 08:32:02 AM by jaichind »

ABP C-Voter poll on Punjab (Change from Sept version of the same poll)

AAP       50  (-4)        36%
INC       46  (+4)       35%
SAD      20                21% (I have to assume SAD-BSP)
BJP         1                  2%



Pretty good numbers for INC given the circumstances.  Using my rule of thumb that polls at this stage tend to overestimate the incumbent INC is clearly behind and AAP is likely to win a narrow majority. Still INC seems will avoid a total meltdown.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,222
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #838 on: November 12, 2021, 08:10:44 AM »

ABP C-Voter poll for Uttrakhand

BJP       38    41%
INC       31    36%
AAP        1     11%

Narrow BJP lead with AAP cutting into the anti-BJP vote.  Still, I think this sort of poll result at this time seems to indicate that the BJP will be narrowly defeated.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,222
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #839 on: November 12, 2021, 08:16:50 AM »

ABP C-Voter poll for Goa

BJP        21    36%
AAP         5    24%
INC         4    19%
Others   10    21% (I assume NCP MAG GFP)       

AAP and INC split the anti-BJP handing the BJP a narrow victory. There is a chance that a INC-NCP-GFP alliance which I do not think the poll is taking into account.  While I think this poll overstates the BJP edge if AAP and INC do split the vote like this poll suggests then the BJP should be headed toward a solid plurality of seats.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,222
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #840 on: November 12, 2021, 08:25:07 AM »

ABP C-Voter  poll for Manipur

BJP       27       39%
INC       22       33%
NPF        6         9% (on paper ally of BJP)
Others    5       19%

Here despite my rule that polls overstate the incumbent, in the NE where they are very dependent on federal subsidies, I think polls might understate the strength of the party in power at the federal level.  It seems BJP has a good shot at winning a majority on its own.  NPF will run separately from BJP but most likely will join with BJP post-election to form a government.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,222
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #841 on: November 12, 2021, 08:30:19 AM »

And the big one.  ABP C-Voter  poll for UP

BJP+        217   41%
SP+         156   31%
BSP+         18   15%
INC             8     9%
Others         4

My comments are
a) I think if the BJP+ SP+ vote share gap is 10% the BJP+ will win more than 217 seats
b) I also think if a poll at this stage has BJP at 217 seats then most likely BJP will fail to win a majority although it is not likely SP can win a majority either.
c) On the flip side if it seems the state is headed toward a hung assembly there tends to be momentum for one of the larger parties (in this case BJP or SP) with marginal votes to win a majority.  If I had to guess based on this poll I would say it is more likely to be SP than BJP as 217 seats at this stage is not a strong polling result.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,222
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #842 on: November 17, 2021, 06:40:27 AM »

Times Now-Polstrat poll on UP

BJP+  242
SP+   122
BSP     30
INC       7


At this stage, a poll like that seems to imply BJP as the biggest party but has a good chance it will not win a majority.  At the campaign gets on the way the anti-incumbency energy will start to build.
Logged
xelas81
Rookie
**
Posts: 119
Falkland Islands (Islas Malvinas)


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #843 on: November 17, 2021, 01:14:44 PM »

Are non-Yadav OBC still most important swing voting block in UP?
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,222
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #844 on: November 17, 2021, 02:16:36 PM »

Are non-Yadav OBC still most important swing voting block in UP?

Yes.  That and non-Jatav Dalits. In theory Brahmin could swing from BJP to INC due to anger toward an OBC BJP CM.  but every time there is talk of that taking place they just come out to vote BJP. Last time the INC actually got a good chunk of Brahmin votes was 1999 LS elections.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,222
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #845 on: November 19, 2021, 08:46:22 AM »

https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indias-modi-repeal-controversial-farm-laws-2021-11-19/

"India's Modi backs down on farm reforms in surprise victory for protesters"

BJP internals for UP most have shown a surge for SP among farmers
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,222
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #846 on: November 22, 2021, 02:54:30 PM »

There are rumors that Modi will also delay the labor market reforms that he came out with last year until at least when the 2022 assembly elections are over.  One thing is for sure, Modi is no Thatcher.  Of course, that might speak to his political longevity and his ability to sacrifice principles in order to survive politically.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,222
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #847 on: November 25, 2021, 11:39:12 AM »

https://indianexpress.com/article/india/meghalaya-congress-mlas-defection-tmc-mukul-sangma-7639994/

"Ex-CM Mukul Sangma among 12 of 17 Cong MLAs set to join TMC in Meghalaya
Meghalaya is set to hold Assembly polls in 2023."
 
12 out of 17 INC MLA in Meghalaya defect to AITC.  AITC is on a tear recently with all sorts of INC and JD(U) politicians joining AITC outside of WB.  A former Goa INC CM also recently joined AITC.  AITC is already trying to become the leader of the anti-BJP front in Tripura and is now trying to muscle its way in Meghalaya.  I do view places like Meghalaya and Goa differently from Tripura.  The non-tribal population of Tripur is Bengali which is not the case for Meghalaya and Goa.  It is not clear at all if AITC can get a good part of the vote share in these two states and displace INC as the main opposition party.  Most likely they are just going to split the anti-NDA vote.  Of course, what they say about elections is "first you run to lose, then you run to make others lose and then you run to win."  If AITC can cut into the INC vote in Meghalaya and Goa they are already at phase II.  In Meghalaya, this is possible while in Goa it is clear that the AAP is the party running to make INC lose. 

Logged
Pages: 1 ... 29 30 31 32 33 [34]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.063 seconds with 11 queries.