India 2021 assembly elections - TN, Kerala, WB, Assam, and perhaps J&K
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  India 2021 assembly elections - TN, Kerala, WB, Assam, and perhaps J&K
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Author Topic: India 2021 assembly elections - TN, Kerala, WB, Assam, and perhaps J&K  (Read 31564 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #775 on: August 07, 2021, 08:07:58 AM »

Democracy Times poll on 2022 Punjab elections

INC           59
SAD-BSP   23
AAP          28
BJP            2


Mostly fits the other polls with INC sweeping BJP and BSP in Hindu areas while it is a 3 way split between INC AAP and SAD in Sikh areas.   I think this poll overrates INC too much.
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jaichind
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« Reply #776 on: August 07, 2021, 08:14:57 AM »

DB Live poll for 2022 assembly elections.  Fairly negative for BJP

Uttarakhand
INC            41
BJP            27
Others         2

Goa
INC           22
BJP           12
Others        6

Manipur
BJP          34
INC          21
Others       5

Punjab
INC           64
SAD-BSP   39
AAP          11
BJP            1
Others       2

UP
SP-RLD    182
BJP-AD    147
BSP          48
INC          16
Others      10
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jaichind
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« Reply #777 on: August 08, 2021, 08:31:59 AM »

Democracy Times poll for 2022 UP assembly election has BJP losing a bunch of seats from 2017 but still holding majority

BJP-AD          249
SP-RLD         124
BSP                14
INC                  3
Others            13


INC at 3 seats seems to mean what is left of the INC Muslim base have shifted to SP while what is left of the INC Upper caste base have shifted to BJP.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #778 on: August 08, 2021, 09:34:58 AM »

Just 3 out of 403 seats is still pretty "impressive" though.

Is there any other big state where Congress are *that* marginalised?
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jaichind
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« Reply #779 on: August 08, 2021, 09:51:22 AM »

Just 3 out of 403 seats is still pretty "impressive" though.

Is there any other big state where Congress are *that* marginalised?

Whole bunch of them.  Namely

a) Tripura - INC base mostly went over to BJP for BJP to fight Left Front
b) AP - INC base mostly went over to INC splinter YSRCP which is viewed as the real INC in AP anyway
c) Delhi - INC base mostly went over to AAP for AAP to fight BJP
d) WB - INC base mostly went over to INC splinter AITC which is viewed as the real INC in WB anyway

If UP goes the way of Delhi then that should send sirens off in INC high command.  It shows that even in the Hindi heartland where it is mostly BJP vs INC that the INC base could fall apart and converge to zero. 
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #780 on: August 09, 2021, 04:28:57 AM »

Tripura and Delhi aren't "big" states tbf Wink

And the other two you mention have de facto Congress parties.
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jaichind
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« Reply #781 on: August 09, 2021, 06:21:34 AM »

Tripura and Delhi aren't "big" states tbf Wink

And the other two you mention have de facto Congress parties.

That's fair.  I would say that TN and Bihar are big states where the INC in UP is converging toward.  In both TN and Bihar INC vote share strength are in the high single digits and no longer about to wins seats on their own.  This decline has mostly taken place in the 1990s.  In both cases the INC has accepted this fate and are able to wins seats as the junior partner of a larger regional party.  INC in both states are helped by the perceptions that their vote are still fairly loyal and are transferable making it worth the regional party ally worth its while to form an alliance with INC. 

In many ways the UP INC is converging toward this norm but in  some ways it is worse.  INC was never that strong in TN and Bihar even it the INC heyday of 1970s-1980s while INC historically have been stronger in UP.   This makes it harder for the UP INC to accept being a junior partner.  Also the UP INC can point to their alliance with BSP in 1993 and with SP in 2017 was turning points in the decline of the INC vote.  The 1991 BJP surge took most of the INC Upper caste base but the 1993 alliance with BSP made the INC Dalit base shift to BSP permanent while the same seems to be taking place with the INC Muslim base and SP after the 2017 INC alliance with SP.  And that takes us to the other factor which makes the UP INC situation worse than Bihar and TN: namely SP views what remains of the INC base as not loyal to INC and that it can be lured to vote SP without an alliance with INC.
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jaichind
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« Reply #782 on: August 09, 2021, 08:25:49 AM »

Democracy Now poll on 2022 Uttarakhand assembly elections.

BJP       36
INC       29
AAP        0
BSP        0
Others    5


I guess their projection has AAP cutting into the anti-BJP vote to let in BJP but not winning any seats.  I sort of doubt this.  The level of INC infighting is bad, but the chaos on the BJP side most likely wins the state swings back to INC in 2022.
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jaichind
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« Reply #783 on: August 11, 2021, 05:53:45 AM »

https://indianexpress.com/article/india/yrscp-govt-anti-people-not-seeking-an-alliance-bjp-7448009/

"YRSCP govt anti-people, not seeking an alliance: BJP"

BJP's current ally in AP is JS but I guess BJP figured that JS-BJP in 2024 cannot expect to win any seats.  So it seems what took place was the BJP was working on an alliance with YSRCP (with an eye on 2024 LS elections where BJP can win some seats in AP if it has an alliance with YSRCP) but YSRCP backed out last minute provoking a backlash from BJP.

This might trigger an outreach by BJP to TDP for a possible third TDP-BJP alliance.  There were an alliance between TDP and BJP in 1998-2004 and 2014-2018.  Given BJP's determination to wins seats everywhere a new TDP-BJP alliance in 2024 cannot be ruled out if the doors are shut between YSRCP and BJP.  

As for why YSRCP backed out last minute.  Most likely has to do with the the fact that BJP did not offer enough goodies.  YSRCP vote base has a large number of Christians (mostly from Dalits and tribal) and Muslims who are hostile to BJP.  For YSRCP to pull of such an alliance and take this risk they have to be able to show they got their pound of flesh from BJP.  What BJP offered most likely was not enough.
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jaichind
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« Reply #784 on: August 12, 2021, 10:12:18 AM »

Lok Poll poll for UP 2022 assembly elections

BJP-AD       225
SP-RLD       125
BSP             25
INC             14
Others         14

Narrow majority for BJP.  SP make a rebound from 2017 while BSP and INC both well below where they used to be in the early 2000s.
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jaichind
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« Reply #785 on: August 17, 2021, 04:59:01 AM »

India Today Mood of the Nation poll

               Seat       Vote share
NDA         298           40%
  BJP          269           24%
UPA         105           28%
 INC           59            20%

The pro-Modi surge on early 2020 COVID-19 lockdown gone. Situation now around the same as Jan 2020 which means if election is today it would be  a repeat of 2014 election.



CM approval within state has TN's Stalin being the highest (honeymoon effect.) UP BJP CM Yogi Adityanath at 29% is not great but not bad either.



Best PM.  Modi falls to 24% with Yogi Adityanath rising to 11%.  Gandhi clan adds up to 18% which would be the core INC vote.  Modi+Adityanath+Shah adds up to 42% which would be the NDA vote.
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jaichind
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« Reply #786 on: August 21, 2021, 07:23:28 PM »

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/former-uttar-pradesh-chief-minister-kalyan-singh-dies-at-89-2515782

"Kalyan Singh, Former Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister, Dies At 89"

Former BJP CM of UP Kalyan Singh passes away.  He was key to attracting OBC vote to the BJP in the early 1990s but was responsible for BJP's decline in the 2000s as he defected from the BJP, twice, and aligned with the SP as the OBC vote moved away.  The UP OBC vote only came back to the BJP with the Modi wave of 2014 which was the year Kalyan Singh came back to the BJP for the last time and was made governor of Rajasthan.

Kalyan Singh and LK Advani are most likely most responsible for the building of the Ram Temple in Ayodhya.  This is because it was Advani that organized the kar sevaks  that destroyed the mosque in 1992 while BJP CM Kalyan Singh did not mobilize state security to stop them.  Once the mosque was destroyed was it possible for the courts decades later to say "well it got destroyed so lets just approve a one time construction of a temple there."
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jaichind
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« Reply #787 on: September 03, 2021, 08:06:21 AM »

C-Voter Opinion Poll on UP(Seats & Vote Share)

BJP+ : 259-267 (42%)
SP+ :  109-117 (30%)
BSP :  12-16 (16%)
INC : 3-7 (5%)
OTH : 6-10 (7%)
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jaichind
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« Reply #788 on: September 04, 2021, 10:31:06 AM »

C-Voter poll for Punjab assembly elections in 2022

           Seats   Vote share
AAP        54          35.1%
INC        44          28.8%
SAD       20           21.8%



This poll shows AAP with clear edge in Sikh areas while INC still dominate Hindu areas.  INC now looks like it is headed to defeat at the hands of AAP.
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jaichind
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« Reply #789 on: September 05, 2021, 08:14:59 AM »

3 by-elections in WB for end of Sept.  2 seats are for 2 seats that did not vote in the 2021 May assembly elections due to death of candidate.  The third one is the AITC MLA from Mamata Banerjee's old seat stepping down so she can run and get elected from her old seat.

AITC should win all 3 with ease.
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jaichind
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« Reply #790 on: September 10, 2021, 06:54:14 PM »



I agree that he wants to be a part of a future anti-Nitish block, I think our difference of opinion is with who Nitish ultimately allies with. I'm going with the assumption that Nitish will stay with the BJP, despite not being comfortable with them.

It seems the BJP are blaming Chirag for the split in the LJP: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/patna/bjp-hints-at-berth-for-pashupati-kumar-paras-in-union-cabinet/articleshow/83520552.cms

I wonder if that motivates him further to jump ship. I think the Congress would be happy to have him, but I do wonder if that would hurt their perceived strength with upper-Castes.

 https://indianexpress.com/article/india/ljp-chirag-paswan-rjd-tejashwi-yadav-lalu-prasad-7496303/

With LJP split into a pro-JD(U) and anti-JD(U) factions it seems the anti-JD(U) faction Chirag Paswan is meeting with RJD which is most likely a precursor to a Chirag Paswan faction LJP forming an alliance with RJD.  If true it does signal that for now JD(U) and RJD forming an anti-BJP alliance is out for now.  Everything depends on how the 2022 UP assembly election goes which would give a signal how strong BJP is in the Hindi belt.
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jaichind
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« Reply #791 on: September 11, 2021, 05:20:23 AM »

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/gujarat-chief-minister-vijay-rupani-submits-resignation/articleshow/86115260.cms

Gujarat BJP CM Vijay Rupani resigns.  Not clear why.  Perhaps BJP want to go for early election which at this stage they are certain to win.
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jaichind
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« Reply #792 on: September 11, 2021, 07:19:07 AM »

Rumors are that the new Gujarat BJP CM will be from the Patel community.   Vijay Rupani is a Jain so I guess what took place was the BJP high command saw a risk of losing the Patel vote in the 2022 assembly elections and moved in to put in a Patel to be the face of the BJP to ensure the Patel vote for 2022.
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jaichind
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« Reply #793 on: September 12, 2021, 10:49:07 AM »

https://www.thenewsminute.com/article/karnataka-bjp-leader-confirms-horsetrading-says-he-was-offered-money-join-bjp-155195

"Karnataka BJP leader confirms horsetrading, says he was offered money to join BJP"

One of the INC MLAs in Karnataka that jumped ship to BJP in 2019 bring down the JD(S)-INC government confirmed what everyone already knew "he was offered money to join BJP."  As it is he said that he turned down the money but joined to become a minister in the Yediyurappa BJP government.    Now that Yediyurappa is gone he lost his minister position in the  Bommai cabinet so he is coming out to admit that there were money involved in the collapse of the JD(S)-INC government in 2019.
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jaichind
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« Reply #794 on: September 12, 2021, 11:06:52 AM »

https://indianexpress.com/article/india/bjp-gujarat-bhupendra-patel-cm-reactions-7504222/

"‘Bhupendra Patel will bring BJP back to power’, say party leaders; ‘remote-controlled’, alleges Congress"

In a surprise first time MLA Bhupendra Patel was made BJP CM of Gujarat.  Bhupendra Patel has deep roots in Ahmedabad local politics before becoming MLA in 2017.  His choice most mean that BJP internal polling shows erosion of its urban base as well as the Patel vote.  Bhupendra Patel is expected to try to shore up the BJP urban vote in the 2022 assembly elections.  It seems BJP is now forgoing a landslide sweep in 2022 and focusing on a narrow victory over the INC based on sweeping the the urban seats. 
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omar04
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« Reply #795 on: September 14, 2021, 01:41:16 AM »

https://indianexpress.com/article/india/bjp-gujarat-bhupendra-patel-cm-reactions-7504222/

"‘Bhupendra Patel will bring BJP back to power’, say party leaders; ‘remote-controlled’, alleges Congress"

In a surprise first time MLA Bhupendra Patel was made BJP CM of Gujarat.  Bhupendra Patel has deep roots in Ahmedabad local politics before becoming MLA in 2017.  His choice most mean that BJP internal polling shows erosion of its urban base as well as the Patel vote.  Bhupendra Patel is expected to try to shore up the BJP urban vote in the 2022 assembly elections.  It seems BJP is now forgoing a landslide sweep in 2022 and focusing on a narrow victory over the INC based on sweeping the the urban seats. 

Interesting choice. Him being a low key politician prior to his appointment may have been an attractive factor as well. They also might want to shore up the Patel vote after AAP inroads in the civil polls earlier this year and prior Patel dissatisfaciton with the BJP over quotas.

https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/five-reasons-why-bhupendra-patel-was-chosen-gujarat-cm-7506726/

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/aap-wins-27-seats-in-the-municipal-corporation-polls-kejriwal-holds-roadshow/articleshow/81234544.cms?from=mdr
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omar04
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« Reply #796 on: September 14, 2021, 03:34:43 PM »

https://www.outlookindia.com/website/story/india-news-himachal-cm-dismisses-rumours-of-leadership-change-as-delhi-visit-fuels-speculation/394603

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jaichind
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« Reply #797 on: September 14, 2021, 03:41:31 PM »


Wow, other than UP the BJP might end up swapping out all its CMs for states that will have elections in 2022 or 2023.  I think the BJP might also end up changing its CM in Trupura  as well eventually.
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eos
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« Reply #798 on: September 17, 2021, 03:53:55 PM »

C-Voter Opinion Poll on UP(Seats & Vote Share)

BJP+ : 259-267 (42%)
SP+ :  109-117 (30%)
BSP :  12-16 (16%)
INC : 3-7 (5%)
OTH : 6-10 (7%)

What's the game-plan for SP? Do they think they can beat NDA on their own?
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jaichind
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« Reply #799 on: September 17, 2021, 04:11:52 PM »

C-Voter Opinion Poll on UP(Seats & Vote Share)

BJP+ : 259-267 (42%)
SP+ :  109-117 (30%)
BSP :  12-16 (16%)
INC : 3-7 (5%)
OTH : 6-10 (7%)

What's the game-plan for SP? Do they think they can beat NDA on their own?

It seems so.  They gamble is that the anti-BJP vote will consolidate around SP.  I think SP also thinks it is possible an alliance with the Bhim Army based ASP can claw a bunch of Dalit votes.   This is riskly.  I suspect the Jatav Dalit vote will still go with BSP which would mean SP would come close but would not defeat BJP.
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