India 2021 assembly elections - TN, Kerala, WB, Assam, and perhaps J&K

[jaichind]

https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/lucknow/expelled-bsp-mlas-meet-akhilesh-yadav-likely-to-join-sp-2022-up-elections-7360326/

"Expelled BSP MLAs meet Akhilesh Yadav, likely to join SP ahead of 2022 UP elections"

This pretty much means a SP-BSP alliance if not possible for the 2022 UP assembly elections.  With INC trying to project Priyanka Gandhi as the INC leader in UP it is unlikely INC will join an alliance with SP.  So for 2022 most likely it will be a 4 way battle.  The main struggle for alliances with be who smaller caste parties like AD(S) SBSP NISHAD and the new Dalit based ASP will align with.  Here SP most likely have an edge over BJP in roping in these smaller parties.  In fact in order for SP to get these allies and not alienate its core base a SP-INC alliance will most likely not work for SP anyway.

[jaichind]

https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/why-sad-is-counting-on-its-alliance-with-bsp-for-a-comeback-7356346/

"Explained: Why SAD is counting on its alliance with BSP for a comeback"

In Punjab with SAD having broken off its alliance with BJP over the farmer protest issue, SAD now forms an alliance with BSP to contest 2022 Punjab assembly elections.  It seems SAD will contest 97 seats and BSP will contest 20 seats.  This revives the old 1996 LS SAD-BSP alliance.  After the 1996 LS elections SAD tied up with BJP.  Basically SAD does not have much strength in the Hindu parts of Punjab so will need a partner like BJP or BSP to bring in Hindu votes.  SAD is also looking to overcome views that it is a Jat party by forming an alliance with Dalit based BSP given the traditional social hostility between Jats and Dalits.

So in 2022 it will mostly be INC vs BJP vs BSP in Hindu areas and INC vs SAD vs AAP in Sikh areas.  In Hindu areas it will be advantage INC but in Sikh areas INC SAD and AAP will evenly matched so it will be hard to say who will come out ahead.

[randomusername]

https://www.deccanherald.com/national/national-politics/ljp-implodes-five-mps-oust-chirag-paswan-as-leader-elect-pashupati-kumar-paras-997396.html

"LJP implodes, five MPs oust Chirag Paswan as leader, elect Pashupati Kumar Paras"

This is Nitish Kumar's payback to BJP for using LJP to cut JD(U) down to size in the 2020 assembly elections.  Now Nitish Kumar strikes back by forming an alliance with Pashupati Kumar Paras who is the uncle of LJP leader Chirag Paswan.  I assume all this are moves to eventually merge LJP into JD(U) and leave Chirag Paswan out in the cold with a rump LJP.

It seems by the next Bihar assembly elections BJP and JD(U) will not be on the same side and Nitish Kumar are cleaning out a potential BJP ally.

Any chance that the younger Paswan could defect to another party?

In a sense, this seems like a gift to Tejashwi Yadav. Now he seems to be the sole youth leader in a potential post-Nitish world.

I don't think Paswan would join the RJD since he'd be junior to Tejashwi. I think he could be a potential get for the INC, but that could hurt them with the upper-caste vote.

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/isolated-in-ljp-chiras-paswan-sees-offer-from-congress-rjd-1814994-2021-06-15

"Isolated in LJP, Chirag Paswan sees offer from Congress, RJD"

It seems you are right that both RJD and INC seems to want Chirag Paswan. Still I think Chirag Paswan sees his future with BJP as part of a future anti-Nitish Kumar bloc.

I agree that he wants to be a part of a future anti-Nitish block, I think our difference of opinion is with who Nitish ultimately allies with. I'm going with the assumption that Nitish will stay with the BJP, despite not being comfortable with them.

It seems the BJP are blaming Chirag for the split in the LJP: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/patna/bjp-hints-at-berth-for-pashupati-kumar-paras-in-union-cabinet/articleshow/83520552.cms

I wonder if that motivates him further to jump ship. I think the Congress would be happy to have him, but I do wonder if that would hurt their perceived strength with upper-Castes.

[jaichind]

https://theprint.in/politics/vasundhara-raje-stops-attending-rajasthan-bjp-meetings-and-events-as-rift-with-party-widens/678690/

"Vasundhara Raje stops attending Rajasthan BJP meetings and events as rift with party widens"

INC is not the only party with rebellions in Rajasthan with the on again off again Sachin Pilot rebellions. It seems the rift between former BJP CM Raje is growing wider with BJP high command.  Raje was always aligned with Advani and makes her "non-mainstream" within the context of the Modi-Shah dominated BJP high command.  I suspect after the BJP wins the 2023 Rajasthan assembly elections Raje will be a significant rebel to deal with.  She might even split from BJP by 2023 to float her own party in the assembly elections.

It seems the BJP has a hard time keeping all the Scindia clan in its tent.  The House of Scindia has roots in the Maratha confederacy has since independence have aligned with BJS/BJP given the INC position of removing privileges of former royals in the 1950s-1960s.   Vasundhara Raje is from the House of Scindia and has been aligned with BJS/BJP due to her mother Vijaya Raje Scindia being aligned with BJS.    Vasundhara Raje's sister Yashodhara Raje Scindia is a BJP MP MLA and part of the BJP MP government.    Vasundhara Raje's brother Madhavrao Scindia broke with the family and went over to INC in the early 1970s and after his premature death his son Jyotiraditya Scindia became a top INC leader in MP and known to be close to Rahul Gandhi.  After not getting the top job of MP CM in 2018 Jyotiraditya Scindia eventually broke with INC, joined BJP and brought down the INC government in 2020 which once again unified the  Scindia clan under the BJP.  Now with a possible  Vasundhara Raje rebellion against the BJP the  Scindia clan might split politically again.  It just seems hard for the BJP to keep all the  Scindias under its tent all at once.

[jaichind]

Posting this run-of-the-mill BJP press conference with Punjab BJP leaders.   I posted this before but thought I do it again for the reason is a picture is worth a thousand words to understand the mindset of the BJP Modi-Shah high command.



The 4 faces in the background are: Modi and current BJP President Nadda on the left and Syama Prasad Mukherjee and Deendayal Upadhyaya on the right.  Syama Prasad Mukherjee is the founder of BJS but died under mysterious circumstances in Kashmir in 1953 so his impact on BJS is limited.  Deendayal Upadhyaya is the chief BJS (proto-BJP) ideologue of the BJS in the 1960s.

What is missing from this pantheon of is of course BJP PM Atal Bihari Vajpayee and BJP DCM Lal Krishna Advani who between them lead the BJS/BJP from 1968 to 2013.  It seems Modi-Shah are threatened by the legacy of Vajpayee and Advani (who is still alive) and do not want them names mentioned as a way to cement the message Modi is BJP and BJP is Modi.

You see this dynamic in other Indian political dynasties  and as well as other dynasties in the rest of the world but it is just interesting to see it in action through a picture.

[eos]

Congress MLA from Assam, Rupjyoti Kurmi, joins BJP. He was from the Tea tribe community, and his seat, Mariani, was one of Congress' last strongholds among that community.

Kurmi's defection to the BJP was followed by that of Jury Sharma Bordoloi, the president of the Guwahati city District Congress Committee.

[jaichind]

https://www.deccanherald.com/state/karnataka-politics/karnataka-bjp-meet-opens-a-can-of-worms-998560.html

"Karnataka BJP meet opens a can of worms"

The BJP Karnataka crisis continues to fester.   It seems Yeddyurappa want to push his son Raghavendra into a more senior role to prepare for the day he has to retire  while his enemies within the BJP want him out as CM now claiming his move toward nepotism and corruption (just like his enemies claimed 10 years ago.)   The BJP High Command have sent representatives to try to work out a solution.  If they do decided that Yeddyurappa  has to go they risk angering the Lingayats and repeat the events 10 years ago in 2011 when Yeddyurappa (then called Yediyurappa) was ousted as BJP CM and he was able to rally his Lingayats to follow him in a rebellion against the BJP.  So far everything is playing out exactly the same as 10 years ago.

[randomusername]

https://www.deccanherald.com/state/karnataka-politics/karnataka-bjp-meet-opens-a-can-of-worms-998560.html

"Karnataka BJP meet opens a can of worms"

The BJP Karnataka crisis continues to fester.   It seems Yeddyurappa want to push his son Raghavendra into a more senior role to prepare for the day he has to retire  while his enemies within the BJP want him out as CM now claiming his move toward nepotism and corruption (just like his enemies claimed 10 years ago.)   The BJP High Command have sent representatives to try to work out a solution.  If they do decided that Yeddyurappa  has to go they risk angering the Lingayats and repeat the events 10 years ago in 2011 when Yeddyurappa (then called Yediyurappa) was ousted as BJP CM and he was able to rally his Lingayats to follow him in a rebellion against the BJP.  So far everything is playing out exactly the same as 10 years ago.

If Yeddyurappa were to bolt, what do you think are the immediate consequences?

[jaichind]

https://www.deccanherald.com/state/karnataka-politics/karnataka-bjp-meet-opens-a-can-of-worms-998560.html

"Karnataka BJP meet opens a can of worms"

The BJP Karnataka crisis continues to fester.   It seems Yeddyurappa want to push his son Raghavendra into a more senior role to prepare for the day he has to retire  while his enemies within the BJP want him out as CM now claiming his move toward nepotism and corruption (just like his enemies claimed 10 years ago.)   The BJP High Command have sent representatives to try to work out a solution.  If they do decided that Yeddyurappa  has to go they risk angering the Lingayats and repeat the events 10 years ago in 2011 when Yeddyurappa (then called Yediyurappa) was ousted as BJP CM and he was able to rally his Lingayats to follow him in a rebellion against the BJP.  So far everything is playing out exactly the same as 10 years ago.

If Yeddyurappa were to bolt, what do you think are the immediate consequences?

For one thing it seems BJP high command has backed Yediyurappa for now

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/nation/bjp-backs-yediyurappa-change-unlikely-270469

"BJP backs Yediyurappa, change unlikely"

I really doubt Yediyurappa will bolt since he is looking for his son to take a key role in the Karnataka BJP after he retires.  Of course if he does bolt and that would be a disaster for the BJP in the 2023 assembly elections just like 2013.

[jaichind]

With the defection game clearly starting in UP ahead of the 2022 UP assembly election I post what I posted years ago as the generic template news article about defections that are found in the print media.  Most of these news articles about some defection mostly write themselves.

--------------------------------------------------------

<Politician A> has left <Party X> to join <Party Y> along with his/her followers.  Speaking in the presence of <Leader M> of <Party Y> with his/her followers, <Politician A> indicated that he/she was being sidelined in <Party X> and frustrated by the increasing autocratic nature of the way <Party X> was run and led by <Leader N who is most likely a rival of Leader M>.   <Politician A> also said that he/she was disturbed by the anti-People policies of <Party X> and decided that the only way he/she can fight for pro-People policies is to join <Party Y>.  <Politician A> concluded by saying that he/she does not seek any nomination for any office and only wishes to fight as a regular party worker for <Party Y> under the leadership of <Leader M> in the upcoming elections.

----------------------------------------------------------

[jaichind]

https://indianexpress.com/article/north-east-india/tripura/amid-rumours-that-party-mlas-might-join-tmc-bjp-gen-secy-in-tripura-for-discussions-7362251/

"Tripura: Rumours rife of BJP MLAs joining TMC; senior leaders gather for ‘talks’"

With WB won, AITC now seems to be going on the offensive to try to create trouble and perhaps even topple the BJP government in Bengali speaking Tripura.  I can see a situation where now AITC moves into Tripura and forms an alliance with INC tribal splinter TIPRA and INPT to take on BJP-IPFT.

Historically Tripura has been Left Front vs INC-INPT. 

In 2013 BJP got 1.5% of the vote and tribal IPFT got 0.5% of the vote.  In 2018 BJP and IPFT took over the INC and INPT vote entirely and won 43.4% and 7.5% of the vote respectively to capture power in Tripura.

In 2023 AITC-TIPRA could repeat this amazing feat.  In 2018 AITC won 0.3% of the vote but with the new INC tribal splinter TIPRA in 2023 could take over the Left Front vote and gain a swing from BJP to win the 2023 Tripura assembly elections.

In WB it used to be Left Front vs INC in 1996.  Then AITC became the new INC and then BJP became the new Left Front to become BJP (as the new Left Front) vs AITC (as the new INC.)

In Tripura it could end up being the opposite.  It used to be Left Front vs INC, just like WB, then the BJP became the new INC (and IPFT became the new INPT) and then AITC became the new Left front to become AITC (as the new Left Front) vs BJP (as the new INC).

The Bengali speaking world is shifted from a Left Front vs INC paradigm to AITC vs BJP paradigm.

[jaichind]

https://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/2021/jun/20/better-to-reconcile-with-bjp-before-its-too-late-sena-mla-under-ed-scanner-writes-to-uddhav-2319012.html

"'Better to reconcile with BJP before it's too late': Sena MLA under ED scanner writes to Uddhav"

SHS MLA Pratap Sarnaik writes an open letter to SHS CM Uddhav urging him to end alliance with INC-NCP and form an alliance with the BJP.  He is under instigation for corruption and his letter literally said SHS should form an alliance with the BJP "‘to save its leaders from harassment from central agencies’!"

Wow, this is saying the quite part out loud.  He literally killed any short term chances of a BJP-SHS alliance since if SHS goes over the BJP it will be said that is because SHS is corrupt and BJP will pull back investigations of SHS politicians if SHS goes over to the BJP. 

[jaichind]

https://www.news18.com/news/india/exclusive-centre-to-restore-jk-statehood-pm-modi-to-discuss-blueprint-in-june-24-meet-3869942.html

"EXCLUSIVE: Centre to Clear Path to J&K Statehood, PM Modi to Discuss Blueprint in June 24 Meet"

J&K to get back statehood soon after delineation exercise its seems.  If so J&K assembly elections might be as early as 2021 as opposed to 2022 which means one more assembly election in 2021.

[jaichind]

https://www.indiatoday.in/india-today-insight/story/are-bjp-and-shiv-sena-heading-for-a-reunion-1817634-2021-06-21

"Are BJP and Shiv Sena heading for a reunion?"

Given the hit the COVID-19 second wave had on the Modi/BJP brand (which there are signs they are recovering from) it seems Modi/BJP are leaving nothing to chance for 2024 LS elections.  As a result there are rumors that BJP is offering to support SHS CM Uddhav Bal Thackeray as CM for another year as CM  (to make his term 2.5 years) to get SHS back into the NDA.  It as over the issue of a SHS CM that lead to the breakup of BJP and SHS in late 2019 and the formation of SHS-INC-NCP government.  If true then the BJP must be getting concerned about its chances in 2024 if they are willing to swallow their words of late 2019.

[jaichind]

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/siddaramaiah-vs-shivakumar-karnataka-congress-divided-over-cm-face-as-elections-approach-1817097-2021-06-20

"Siddaramaiah vs Shivakumar: Karnataka Congress divided over CM face as elections approach"

In parallel to the Karnataka BJP civil war over BJP CM Yediyurappaji there is a Karnataka INC civil war over the CM face to project in the 2023 assembly elections.  DK Shivakumar was just elected Karnataka INC Prez and is eager to lead the INC in 2023 but former INC CM Siddaramaiah still has ambitions to lead the INC. 

It really comes down to does the INC think it can win an absolute majority in 2023.  Former INC CM Siddaramaiah has a JD(S) background and broke with JD(S) to join INC when it was clear JD(S) patriarch Deve Gowda was going to pass the reigns to his son  Kumaraswamy passing him by along the way.  JD(S) is very hostile to Siddaramaiah and there is no way JD(S) would back a Siddaramaiah administration.  So if the INC thinks it can win an absolute majority then Siddaramaiah  can be considered.   If JD(S) support is needed post 2023 assembly elections  DK Shivakumar is a better pick.  Either way neither side seems to want to back down so INC will be in a civil war in Karnataka for a while.

The good news for both INC and BJP is that with the other engaged in their own civil war the cost of their civil war will be limited.

[eos]

https://twitter.com/PTI_News/status/1406930350014484480

Uttar Pradesh's next chief minister will be finalised by the BJP's central leadership after the state assembly elections next year, says senior party leader and UP minister Swami Prasad Maurya

Modi/Shah vs Yogi? Things might get interesting soon.

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/PTI_News/status/1406930350014484480

Uttar Pradesh's next chief minister will be finalised by the BJP's central leadership after the state assembly elections next year, says senior party leader and UP minister Swami Prasad Maurya

Modi/Shah vs Yogi? Things might get interesting soon.

Just to be clear, this is a biased source.  DCM Keshav Maurya is looking to oust Adityanath from being the BJP CM candidate in 2022 so he can be the BJP CM candidate himself.    But yes, this conflict has been brewing for a while and will continue to fester.  It seems Adityanath has plans to lead the BJP to victory in 2022 UP assembly elections and then take on Shah as the successor to Modi.  Modi/Shah clearly are afraid of this and are looking for ways to prevent this from taking place.  I suspect neither side can openly come out against each other Modi/Shah will have find workarounds for this problem like: maybe split UP, maybe hope for BJP not getting a majority but is the biggest party in 2022 UP assembly elections etc etc to find a way to diplomatically get rid of Adityanath.

[jaichind]

Punjab 2022 poll

AAP          51
INC          47
SAD-BSP  15
BJP            3



Pretty bad news for INC.  For AAP to be way ahead of SAD-BSP means that the anti-INC vote in the Sikh areas are consolidating against INC even as INC sweeps BJP and BSP in Hindu areas.  Anti-INC tactical voting in Sikh areas could make these results even worse for INC and SAS.   Also if these are the trends  then Punjab will have INC as the Hindu party and AAP as Sikh party with both BJP and SAD marginalized.

[jaichind]

Lok Poll on Goa assembly elections in 2022

         Vote share   Seats
BJP       30%           16
INC       26%           12
MGP      13%            4
AAP         7%           1
GFP        4%            4 (INC splinter)
NCP        3%            2
Others                     1

It seems this poll assumes that GFP and NCP will be in some sort of alliance with INC.  If this is a poll one year out then the BJP is clearly in trouble.  The only way out is for the BJP to form an alliance with MGP but with BJP trying to break MGP back in 2018-2019 this seems unlikely.  BJP will Cleary underperform these poll results and their only hope is that INC does not gain a majority own its own so BJP can buy off the smaller parties to form a majority just like in 2017.

[jaichind]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/uttarakhand-abuzz-as-bjp-brass-summons-tirath-singh-rawat-to-delhi/articleshow/84006575.cms

"Uttarakhand abuzz as BJP brass summons Tirath Singh Rawat to Delhi"

Uttarakhand might be headed to early assembly elections because the current BJP is not a MLA but a by-election cannot be held within 1 year of expected assembly elections so for Rawat  to continue as CM there might need to be early assembly elections.

[jaichind]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/uttarakhand-abuzz-as-bjp-brass-summons-tirath-singh-rawat-to-delhi/articleshow/84006575.cms

"Uttarakhand abuzz as BJP brass summons Tirath Singh Rawat to Delhi"

Uttarakhand might be headed to early assembly elections because the current BJP is not a MLA but a by-election cannot be held within 1 year of expected assembly elections so for Rawat  to continue as CM there might need to be early assembly elections.

https://zeenews.india.com/india/will-uttarakhand-get-a-new-chief-minister-2373466.html

"Leadership crisis in Uttarakhand? Tirath Singh Rawat offers to resign as CM, say sources"

It seems Uttarakhand BJP CM Rawat to make way for a third BJP CM ?  Wow, this is not good.  It seems more and more likely that BJP will be swept of power next year when Uttarakhand assembly election comes around.

[jaichind]

These events in Uttarakhand could at least put to bed the opposition claim that ECI is being controlled by the BJP.  I am sure ECI can come up with some justification to hold by-elections so  Rawat  can be elected as a MLA within the 6 month period of becoming CM.  They did not and now the BJP is a in a bind.  Of course INC will claim that BJP is playing 4D chess and that they wanted a technical excuse to get rid of Rawat but I really doubt this is the case.

[jaichind]

Pew survey on religion in India.  Among many other findings I found this result quite instructive.  51% of Hindus feel that one has to be a Hindi speaking Hindu to be an true Indian.  That works out to around 41% of the Indian population.  This the BJP bloc.  BJP's path to victory is to win a super majority of this 41% and if they do that should be enough to win any national election.

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/cabinet-expansion-as-36-new-ministers-take-oath-pm-modis-council-to-have-77-members-2481443

"43 Ministers Take Oath In PM's Mega Overhaul, 7 Cabinet Ministers Sacked"

Big cabinet expansion. A bunch of minister got dropped including health, labor, education, IT, Law etc etc.  In many ways this is partly about political payoffs but also an admission that this government had not done well since 2019.

[jaichind]

The % of the cabinet members which are Dalit or OBC surged.  It is clear that the BJP plan for 2024 is to try to lock up the Upper Caste, OBC and Dalit vote and go for a complete Hindi-Hindu consolidation to try to win a 3rd election in a row.