India 2021 assembly elections - TN, Kerala, WB, Assam, and perhaps J&K
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Author Topic: India 2021 assembly elections - TN, Kerala, WB, Assam, and perhaps J&K  (Read 31568 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #800 on: September 18, 2021, 04:04:47 AM »

https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/chandigarh/punjab-cm-amarinder-resignation-7517270/

"Punjab Congress crisis: Capt Amarinder asked to resign, he threatens to quit party"

More trouble in faction ridden Punjab INC.  There seems to be a fresh move to remove INC CM Capt Amarinder from the CM position.  It seems Capt Amarinder has threatened to bolt from INC if he is removed as CM.
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jaichind
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« Reply #801 on: September 18, 2021, 06:09:09 AM »

https://www.deccanherald.com/national/national-politics/amarinder-singh-decides-to-quit-as-punjab-cm-1031751.html

'Amarinder Singh decides to quit as Punjab CM'

The INC is going to have a meltdown in the 2022 Punjab assembly elections.  Most likely AAP will be the main beneficiary.   2022 most likely will see a second AAP CM in addition to Delhi.
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jaichind
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« Reply #802 on: September 18, 2021, 06:42:23 AM »

The gap in level of political management between BJP and INC is clear to see in how they handled the changing of CMs in BJP states like Karnataka, Uttarakhand, and Gujarat on the one hand and INC state of Punjab.  In the BJP states the outgoing CM thanked the BJP high command on giving them the opportunity  to serve and vowed to continue to work for the re-election of the BJP government in the next election regardless of what role they take.  In Punjab outgoing INC CM  Capt Amarinder Singh indicated he was humiliated by INC high command and INC rivals and threatened to bolt from INC.

Of course part of it is just that the Modi brand is much stronger than the Rahul Gandhi brand.  Outgoing BJP CMs who still want a political career know that Modi can bring votes which keeps the BJP cadres loyal to Modi so they better not cross Modi.  In INC Rahul Gandhi does not have the same ability to pull in votes so INC leaders have no fear of crossing INC high command.
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eos
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« Reply #803 on: September 18, 2021, 05:45:19 PM »

https://www.deccanherald.com/national/national-politics/amarinder-singh-decides-to-quit-as-punjab-cm-1031751.html

'Amarinder Singh decides to quit as Punjab CM'

The INC is going to have a meltdown in the 2022 Punjab assembly elections.  Most likely AAP will be the main beneficiary.   2022 most likely will see a second AAP CM in addition to Delhi.

INC looked headed for defeat anyway. I guess they decided they had nothing to lose by going for a radical change.
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eos
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« Reply #804 on: September 18, 2021, 05:47:30 PM »


It seems so.  They gamble is that the anti-BJP vote will consolidate around SP.  I think SP also thinks it is possible an alliance with the Bhim Army based ASP can claw a bunch of Dalit votes.   This is riskly.  I suspect the Jatav Dalit vote will still go with BSP which would mean SP would come close but would not defeat BJP.

I see. Come to think of it, I now remember that their solo win in 2012 came as a major surprise. Everyone expected a hung assembly and maybe a SP-INC coalition.
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omar04
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« Reply #805 on: September 18, 2021, 11:56:27 PM »


Wow, other than UP the BJP might end up swapping out all its CMs for states that will have elections in 2022 or 2023.  I think the BJP might also end up changing its CM in Trupura  as well eventually.


I think the Himachal CM is decently situated since the state isn't doing too bad COVID wise so far and he hasn't alienated any major figures. The Tripura CM's successor will almost certainly be critical with the TMC and TIPRA expanding and IPFT being wiped out in the interim.
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jaichind
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« Reply #806 on: September 19, 2021, 06:44:05 AM »

https://www.deccanherald.com/national/national-politics/amarinder-singh-decides-to-quit-as-punjab-cm-1031751.html

'Amarinder Singh decides to quit as Punjab CM'

The INC is going to have a meltdown in the 2022 Punjab assembly elections.  Most likely AAP will be the main beneficiary.   2022 most likely will see a second AAP CM in addition to Delhi.

INC looked headed for defeat anyway. I guess they decided they had nothing to lose by going for a radical change.


You are most likely right. Still had the INC not had a civil war there was a path for INC to win in 2022 by sweeping the Hindu areas and getting a 3 way INC-AAP-SAD split in Sikh areas and win just enough seats to be able to win.  That is clearly out the window.  I wonder if this also means both BJP and BSP would stand to gain in Hindu areas as well.
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jaichind
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« Reply #807 on: September 19, 2021, 06:49:22 AM »


It seems so.  They gamble is that the anti-BJP vote will consolidate around SP.  I think SP also thinks it is possible an alliance with the Bhim Army based ASP can claw a bunch of Dalit votes.   This is riskly.  I suspect the Jatav Dalit vote will still go with BSP which would mean SP would come close but would not defeat BJP.

I see. Come to think of it, I now remember that their solo win in 2012 came as a major surprise. Everyone expected a hung assembly and maybe a SP-INC coalition.

In theory 2012 was suppose to the BJP's year but it did not have good CM face so it was expected to be a 3 way split between SP BSP and BJP with a fairly strong INC performance.   But BJP clearly underperformed as did INC (despite INC doing its best since 1996) and it was SP that unexpectedly won a majority.  The 2012 UP assembly elections was the nadir of BJP fortunes.  If was be cause of that election the BJP grassroots decided that a big change was needed and jumped on the Modi bandwagon.
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jaichind
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« Reply #808 on: September 19, 2021, 06:53:30 AM »


Wow, other than UP the BJP might end up swapping out all its CMs for states that will have elections in 2022 or 2023.  I think the BJP might also end up changing its CM in Trupura  as well eventually.


I think the Himachal CM is decently situated since the state isn't doing too bad COVID wise so far and he hasn't alienated any major figures. The Tripura CM's successor will almost certainly be critical with the TMC and TIPRA expanding and IPFT being wiped out in the interim.

Yeah. I am surprised there is talk of changing HP CM.  My impression is that Jai Ram Thakur is doing OK.  If there are going to be some churn most likely it will be due to caste equations problems.  Tripura BJP CM Biplab Kumar Deb is clearly in trouble with enemies within the BJP as well as rising AITC/TIPRA all circling.  BJP high command will have to make call soon if they are going to just go down to defeat in 2023 or try to make a move knowing that swapping out Biplab Kumar Deb could lead to a potentially bigger civil war in the BJP.
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jaichind
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« Reply #809 on: September 19, 2021, 08:50:31 AM »

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/charanjit-singh-channi-elected-as-clp-leader-to-be-new-punjab-cm-101632054028706.html

"Charanjit Singh Channi to be Punjab chief minister, first Dalit CM of the state"

In a surprise Charanjit Singh Channi takes over as INC CM of Punjab.  He is a Sikh Dalit and will become the first Dalit CM of Punjab.  This move is pretty clever as it immobilizes any Amarinder Singh countermove to try to topple the new INC CM as it would not look go to try to topple the first Dalit CM of Punjab.  It could undercut the SAS-BSP move toward getting the Dalit vote in the 2022 assembly election by promising a Dalit DCM.  Punjab actually has the largest Dalit population in percentage terms of all states in India.  This is not well known because of the large Sikh population but there are large number of Dalit Sikh as well as Dalit Hindus.

He seems to have good relationships with both Punjab INC Prez Navjot Sidhu and former INC CM Amarinder Singh.  With this move INC will still lose in 2022 assembly elections but might avoid a meltdown like SAD did in 2017.
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jaichind
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« Reply #810 on: September 22, 2021, 11:19:57 AM »

https://www.deccanherald.com/national/north-and-central/rahul-priyanka-inexperienced-will-field-candidate-against-sidhu-in-assembly-polls-amarinder-1033174.html

"Rahul, Priyanka inexperienced; will field candidate against Sidhu in Assembly polls: Amarinder"

Signs that former Punjab INC CM Amarinder Singh might split the INC in Punjab.  He is threatening to run a candidate against Punjab INC Prez Sidhu which  he see as the person being him being ousted.
 
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jaichind
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« Reply #811 on: September 23, 2021, 10:34:50 AM »

It shows why BJP had to let Yediyurappa go and put in Bommai back in late July.  Yediyurappa had disapproval above 50% since the spring mostly due to COVID-19 response.  Modi has mostly been able to deflect blame for poor COVID-19 response to CMs.  But this does mean that BJP CMs has to go or BJP will smashed in the next election.  This is what took place here.  It seems the jury is still out on new BJP CM Bommai.

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eos
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« Reply #812 on: September 28, 2021, 11:11:31 AM »

https://www.deccanherald.com/national/north-and-central/rahul-priyanka-inexperienced-will-field-candidate-against-sidhu-in-assembly-polls-amarinder-1033174.html

"Rahul, Priyanka inexperienced; will field candidate against Sidhu in Assembly polls: Amarinder"

Signs that former Punjab INC CM Amarinder Singh might split the INC in Punjab.  He is threatening to run a candidate against Punjab INC Prez Sidhu which  he see as the person being him being ousted.
 

Navjhot Singh Sidhu has just resigned. INC is apparently asking him to reconsider.
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jaichind
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« Reply #813 on: September 28, 2021, 11:17:45 AM »

https://www.deccanherald.com/national/north-and-central/rahul-priyanka-inexperienced-will-field-candidate-against-sidhu-in-assembly-polls-amarinder-1033174.html

"Rahul, Priyanka inexperienced; will field candidate against Sidhu in Assembly polls: Amarinder"

Signs that former Punjab INC CM Amarinder Singh might split the INC in Punjab.  He is threatening to run a candidate against Punjab INC Prez Sidhu which  he see as the person being him being ousted.
 

Navjhot Singh Sidhu has just resigned. INC is apparently asking him to reconsider.

Yeah.  The whole point of Sidhu joining INC from BJP was to become CM.  After his maneuver to oust Amarinder Singh failed to achieve that goal I guess he is going to start from scratch.  Main problem for him is I d not see why any other party will take him.  There are rumors that Amarinder Singh might join BJP.
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jaichind
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« Reply #814 on: September 29, 2021, 07:51:26 AM »

https://theprint.in/politics/the-decline-of-congress-in-goa-from-single-largest-party-in-2017-to-divided-house-of-4-now/741308/

"The decline of Congress in Goa — from single-largest party in 2017 to divided house of 4 now"

Former Goa INC CM Luizinho Faleiro quits INC and most likely will join AITC as part of AITC attempt to break into Goa.  In 2017 INC won 17 out of 40 seats and was the largest party.  But internal bickering allowed the BJP to form a government.  After that the 17 INC MLA continue to bicker and over time 13 of them have left the party with INC down to 4 MLAs. 

Despite being against CW, I actually do not thing that really hurts INC chances in 2022 that much.  I think given anti-incumbency INC have a real shot at beating BJP although it is unlikely to win a majority by itself.
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jaichind
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« Reply #815 on: September 30, 2021, 12:24:20 PM »

https://www.deccanherald.com/national/national-politics/cant-handle-insult-amarinder-singh-to-leave-congress-says-not-joining-bjp-1035778.html

"'Can't handle insult': Amarinder Singh to leave Congress, says not joining BJP"

Former Punjab INC CM Amarinder Singh to leave INC but not join BJP.  His wife is actually an INC MP and for now she will stay in INC.
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« Reply #816 on: October 01, 2021, 05:56:18 AM »

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/navjot-sidhu-to-stay-agreement-with-chief-minister-on-sticking-points-2559843

Sidhu will stay on as INC Punjab chief after meeting with the CM Charanjit Singh Channi.
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eos
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« Reply #817 on: October 01, 2021, 05:57:38 AM »

https://www.deccanherald.com/national/north-and-central/rahul-priyanka-inexperienced-will-field-candidate-against-sidhu-in-assembly-polls-amarinder-1033174.html

"Rahul, Priyanka inexperienced; will field candidate against Sidhu in Assembly polls: Amarinder"

Signs that former Punjab INC CM Amarinder Singh might split the INC in Punjab.  He is threatening to run a candidate against Punjab INC Prez Sidhu which  he see as the person being him being ousted.
 

Navjhot Singh Sidhu has just resigned. INC is apparently asking him to reconsider.

Yeah.  The whole point of Sidhu joining INC from BJP was to become CM.  After his maneuver to oust Amarinder Singh failed to achieve that goal I guess he is going to start from scratch.  Main problem for him is I d not see why any other party will take him.  There are rumors that Amarinder Singh might join BJP.

I think the BJP brand is too toxic in Punjab. He made the wise choice not to affiliate himself with them.
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jaichind
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« Reply #818 on: October 03, 2021, 05:19:17 AM »

3 by-elections in WB counting takes place today.  2 seat where elections did not take place in May 2021 due to death of candidates (COVD-19) and 1 by-election for Mamata Banerjee to get back into as a MLA before the 6 month expiration hits for her to stay CM.

With more than half the votes AITC winning all 3 with ease. 

Mamata Banerjee winning around 72% of the vote versus around 58% for the AITC candidate back in May 2021.

In the 2 seats one is a heavy Muslim seat where it is AITC vs INC vs CPM just like 2016 (where INC backed an IUML candidate) and unlike 2016 where it was a 3 way race, the CPM vote collapsed and shifted to AITC and INC with AITC beating out INC.  BJP gets 4% which is less than 2015.  In the other one which is AITC vs BJP with the AITC candidate winning over 66% of the vote eating up most of the 2015 INC and 2015 CPM vote from 2015 leaving BJP around 24% versus 13% back in 2015.  INC-Left Front backed RSP only gets around 5%.
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jaichind
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« Reply #819 on: October 08, 2021, 09:08:23 AM »

ABP polls out for 2022 assembly elections

As usual I tend to view polls at this stage as having a pro-incumbent skew


UP
BJP      245     41%
SP       134     32%
BSP       17     15%
INC        5        6%
OTH       2        6%

Looks like it is still BJP edge but consolidation of anti-BJP forces behind SP will most likely make it close with a solid shot of BJP falling below majority



Uttarakhand
BJP        44        45%
INC        23       34%
AAP         2        15%
OTH         1         7%

I still think BJP will end up losing but this poll shows that AAP splitting the anti-BJP vote could make it very close


Manipur
BJP         28      36%
INC        23      35%
NPF         6         7%
OTH         3      21%

If it is this close this far out then INC most likely has the edge to win


Goa
BJP        27     38%
INC         4      18%
AAP         5      23%
OTH         6     21%

Looks like AAP is really cutting into the INC vote.  But for 2017 we saw a similar large pre-election AAP vote share polls and in the end most of that went to INC.  If INC is not viewed as viable opponent to BJP this time then I can see BJP with a landslide victory over the split of the anti-BJP vote although I doubt it would be on the scale indicated by this poll.


Punjab
INC         43      32%
AAP         52      36%
SAD        21       23%   (I have to assume that this is SAD-BSP)
BJP          1         4%
OTH         0         6%

INC doing surprising well.  Again I think this poll overestimates the incumbent INC  and AAP should be cruising to a solid victory.
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omar04
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« Reply #820 on: October 08, 2021, 01:34:42 PM »

https://twitter.com/NewsArenaIndia/status/1446301853864509441
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jaichind
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« Reply #821 on: October 08, 2021, 01:58:30 PM »

https://www.livemint.com/opinion/columns/the-farmer-agitation-has-gone-beyond-controversial-farm-laws-11633627129076.html

The rift between the BJP and the farmer protests deepens with the death of a bunch of farm protesters a few days back, some at the hands of a vehicle owned by a  BJP MP.   Looks like this conflict will drag out for a while with likely impact on BJP in next years elections.
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« Reply #822 on: October 08, 2021, 10:07:48 PM »

Is the farm protests kinda resembling for Modi what the coal miners were for Thatcher
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jaichind
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« Reply #823 on: October 09, 2021, 12:54:23 PM »

Lok Poll for 2022 assembly elections.  Just like the ABP polls seems to negative on INC except Punjab this set of polls seems too positive for INC including Punjab

UP
BJP      211     36.5%
SP       147     28.3%
BSP      18      18.2%
INC      13        7.4%
OTH     14        9.6%

Given this vote share gap between BJP and SP I would think the BJP seat lead would be greater.  BSP at 18.2% vote share should yield more than 18 seats.


Uttarakhand
BJP        31        37.2%
INC        24       38.4%
AAP         1         6.5%
BSP         1         5.8%
UKD        0         1.2%
OTH        3        10.5%

I think this poll overestimates INC but most likely INC would end up winning here.


Manipur
BJP        20      35.2%
INC        27     36.5%
NPF         3        6.7%
OTH       10      21.6%

This poll is very close to the ABP poll and indicates that INC is more likely to win


Goa
BJP        14       31.6%
INC        15      30.7%
AAP         1         8.2%
OTH       10       29.2%

This poll seems to indicate that INC would edge out BJP for largest party.  This poll does not assume a possible MAG-AAP alliance which could change the result in a bunch of seats.


Punjab
INC         59      37.9%
AAP         28      23.9%
SAD+      24      27.4%   (this is SAD-BSP)
BJP          0         4.1%
OTH         6         6.7%

This is surpassingly good for INC including SAD-BSP ahead of AAP.  INC's salvation would be a even split of the AAP and SAD vote in Sikh areas.  I doubt INC will get away with anything this good.
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jaichind
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« Reply #824 on: October 09, 2021, 05:45:29 PM »

Is the farm protests kinda resembling for Modi what the coal miners were for Thatcher

I think this is a bigger deal in Western media than it really is.   It will hurt BJP in Punjab and Jats parts of UP but other then that the impact will last a while but is not enough by itself to hurt the BJP. 
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