India 2021 assembly elections - TN, Kerala, WB, Assam, and perhaps J&K
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  India 2021 assembly elections - TN, Kerala, WB, Assam, and perhaps J&K
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Author Topic: India 2021 assembly elections - TN, Kerala, WB, Assam, and perhaps J&K  (Read 31567 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #750 on: July 09, 2021, 05:23:28 AM »

A large number of the new Dalit and OBC ministers are from UP which clearly shows the BJP strategy in UP next year.  There are also a record number of ministers for NE India which shows BJP's hope to hold on to its new NE India victories last few years.

Also, former Maharashtra SHS Narayan Rane was also made a minister.  Narayan Rane broke with SHS after his SHS-BJP government was defeated in the 1999 assembly elections and eventually joined INC.  He then later broke with INC when it was clear he was not going to be made INC CM of Maharashtra  and formed his own party allied with BJP which was merged into BJP in 2019.   Narayan Rane is viewed by SHS as its top traitor and enemy.   Narayan Rane being made a minister means that rumors of a BJP-SHS patch-up are not true and now BJP is working on a future in  Maharashtra  without an alliance with SHS.  Narayan Rane does have some influence with the Maratha vote and it seems the BJP want to us him as it Maratha face as former  BJP CM Devendra Fadnavis is a Brahmin.
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jaichind
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« Reply #751 on: July 10, 2021, 10:25:57 AM »
« Edited: July 10, 2021, 12:07:31 PM by jaichind »

Lok poll for 2022 Manipur assembly elections

BJP         25
INC         23
NPF          3
NPP          3
AITC         3
Others      3



All things equal not so great for BJP,  AITC and NPF will be anti-BJP while NPP could go either way but in the end will go with BJP.  In theory this poll has a narrow path for a NDA government.  But for BJP to be ahead by 2 seats over INC is not good and it is very likely INC will emerge as the largest party, potentially a majority based on polls results at this time.
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jaichind
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« Reply #752 on: July 10, 2021, 10:51:51 AM »

NDA cabinet a lot less Upper Caste heavy relative to 2014.  It is also a lot less RSS heavy.  After 7 years in power the BJP is finally putting caste equations over ideological purity as they expect a tough 2024 election to retain their majority.  NDA majority in 2024 is most likely unavoidable but BJP returning with a majority by itself is now shaky.
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jaichind
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« Reply #753 on: July 11, 2021, 10:44:52 AM »

https://indianexpress.com/article/north-east-india/tripura/amid-rumours-that-party-mlas-might-join-tmc-bjp-gen-secy-in-tripura-for-discussions-7362251/

"Tripura: Rumours rife of BJP MLAs joining TMC; senior leaders gather for ‘talks’"

With WB won, AITC now seems to be going on the offensive to try to create trouble and perhaps even topple the BJP government in Bengali speaking Tripura.  I can see a situation where now AITC moves into Tripura and forms an alliance with INC tribal splinter TIPRA and INPT to take on BJP-IPFT.

Historically Tripura has been Left Front vs INC-INPT. 

In 2013 BJP got 1.5% of the vote and tribal IPFT got 0.5% of the vote.  In 2018 BJP and IPFT took over the INC and INPT vote entirely and won 43.4% and 7.5% of the vote respectively to capture power in Tripura.

In 2023 AITC-TIPRA could repeat this amazing feat.  In 2018 AITC won 0.3% of the vote but with the new INC tribal splinter TIPRA in 2023 could take over the Left Front vote and gain a swing from BJP to win the 2023 Tripura assembly elections.

In WB it used to be Left Front vs INC in 1996.  Then AITC became the new INC and then BJP became the new Left Front to become BJP (as the new Left Front) vs AITC (as the new INC.)

In Tripura it could end up being the opposite.  It used to be Left Front vs INC, just like WB, then the BJP became the new INC (and IPFT became the new INPT) and then AITC became the new Left front to become AITC (as the new Left Front) vs BJP (as the new INC).

The Bengali speaking world is shifted from a Left Front vs INC paradigm to AITC vs BJP paradigm.

It seems BJP has for now managed to stabilize its caucus in Tripura but IPFT seems to be imploding with a MLA already defecting to TIPRA and more to come.

A unknown pollster just did a poll for Tripura for 2023 assembly election and has

                     Seat          Vote share
BJP-IPFT           24            38.4%
Left Front           8             22.3%
TIPRA-AITC       28            33.3%

If so the BJP-IPFA will most likely be defected by a good margin in 2023 by TIPRA-AITC.  It is not clear if tribal based and anti-CAA (and implicitly anti-Bengali) INC splinter TIPRA can form an alliance with Bengali based AITC but if they do then they seems likely to take over in 2023.
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jaichind
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« Reply #754 on: July 11, 2021, 02:52:12 PM »

time for an AITC member to resign to let Mamata to run in a by-election?

Mamata Banerjee will be sworn in Wed in her 3rd term as CM.  I checked, WB does not have a Legislative Council which means the only route is for an AITC MLA to resign and for Mamata Banerjee to re-enter via by-election.  This has to take place within 6 months of her being sworn in. 

Shibu Soren, who is the father of current Jharkhand CM Hemant Soren became CM twice, in 2008 and 2010, but had to resign both times after 6 months after he lost a by-election in both cases.  In Mamata Banerjee's case I am sure this would not be a problem.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/bengal-government-passes-resolution-to-set-up-vidhan-parishad/articleshow/84176134.cms

"Bengal government passes resolution to set up Vidhan Parishad"

Wow.  It seems with no by-elections soon due to COVID-19 and Mamata Banerjee 6 month deadline coming up she is actually going the route of re-creating a State Council (or Upper House) in WB.
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jaichind
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« Reply #755 on: July 12, 2021, 01:35:43 PM »

https://www.deccanherald.com/national/national-politics/uttar-pradesh-draft-population-bill-congress-cautious-nitish-kumar-unimpressed-1007851.html

"Uttar Pradesh draft population Bill: Congress cautious, Nitish Kumar unimpressed"

It seems UP will propose a law that will pretty much take away all sorts of subsidies to families with more than 2 children and extra subsidies for families that have only one child.  This feels like a mild version of what the PRC "One Child Policy" have turned into by the mid 1990s.  The entire PRC "One Child Policy" was a disaster in my view and hopefully UP avoids the same mistake.

That said this law seems like a trap for SP and INC.  The Muslim community are more likely to oppose such a law so if SP or INC came out to oppose this law the BJP can label them as a Muslim party.  And if SP and INC does nothing AIMIM which is looking to move into UP will undercut their Muslim vote.    The Hindu nationalist VHP also came out against the law on religious ground though.
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jaichind
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« Reply #756 on: July 16, 2021, 04:29:11 PM »

Times Now poll on UP 2022 assembly elections

Who will win

BJP    43.1
SP     29.6
BSP   10.1
INC     8.1


Best CM

BJP Yogi Adityanath       42.2
SP Akhilesh Yadav         32.2
BSP Mayawati               17.0
INC Priyanka Gandhi       2.9
RLD Jayant Chaudhary    1.2

BJP and Yogi Adityanath  will outpoll given their incumbency advantage.   Still the size of their leads seems to indicate a narrow BJP win over SP.

Mayawati clearly outmatch her party's prospects.  Surprising that 8.1% think INC will win but only 2.9% back Priyanka Gandhi.  The fact that she does not commit to leading the INC effort in 2022 not projecting herself as the INC CM candidate ls leading to the reluctance for potential INC voters to come out to back her.   

Other re-elect indicators so so great for BJP

BJP CM Yogi Adityanath performance
Good       37.1
Average   23.4
Poor        39.5

These are not great re-elect numbers

BJP PM Modi performance
Good      44.7
Average  19.7
Poor        35.6

Good but not great re-elect numbers of Modi.  I guess as long as SP-BSP are split in 2024 LS elections these numbers should be good enough for BJP to win in UP.   


Do you want a change in state government
Angry and want change                  48.7
Angry but do not want change         27.9 
Not angry and do now want change 23.4

over 75% of the voter "angry" is not good for BJP



Overall of SP can project itself as the only alternative to BJP they have a shot at winning.
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jaichind
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« Reply #757 on: July 17, 2021, 04:22:03 PM »

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/priyanka-gandhi-vadra-ducks-queries-on-being-congs-cm-face-for-up-polls/articleshow/84501973.cms

"Priyanka Gandhi Vadra ducks queries on being Cong's CM face for UP polls"

If this is going to be the attitude of the Gandhi clan then INC is not going to win.  The attitude of the Gandhi clan seems to assume that INC of 2021 is the INC of 1980s where they can stay in the background, take no risk, the INC organization can win on its own, and then they swoop in to take credit for the victory and reap the rewards or disassociate from the rare defeat and then just wait for the next victory to take credit for.

INC actually did better than expected in the 2009 UP LS elections mostly due to the Muslim vote shifted from SP to INC (on SP alliance with former BJP CM and now rebel Kalyan Singh) plus a swing of the urban Hindu vote due to  the Manmohan Singh factor.  But INC  after the fact gave Rahul Gandhi credit for INC overperformance even though Rahul Gandhi never put his credibility on the line for INC by leading openly the INC UP campaign.

As INC's fortunes have waned since 2009 INC can no longer afford this sort of model.  The Gandhi clan cannot fetch votes for the INC just by their name.  They have to get into the trenches.

The rule in Indian politics to contesting election are
1) You first run to make someone else lose
2) Then you run to lose
3) Then you run to win

It will take several election cycles for INC to be become a relevant force in UP again.  For that to take place Priyanka Gandhi has to show she is willing to lose in order to win next time.
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jaichind
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« Reply #758 on: July 18, 2021, 11:15:38 AM »

INC high command appoints flamboyant on and off Punjab INC rebel Navjot Singh Sidhu  as Punjab INC Prez.


Navjot Singh Sidhu and INC CM Amarinder Singh have been at odds for over a year.  Navjot Singh Sidhu was a BJP MP before he rebelled against BJP in 2016 with talks of him joining AAP before he finally joined INC.  He has been maneuvering to become CM ever since much to the anger of INC CM Amarinder Singh. 

It seems INC high command have decided to work out a power sharing measure by having Navjot Singh Sidhu being made Punjab INC Prez much to the alarm of INC CM Amarinder Singh.  INC will now fight the 2022 Punjab assembly elections with two factions sniping at each other.  Only good news is that in Sikh areas of Punjab INC will still face AAP and SAD splitting the anti-INC vote and due to the farmer protest issue INC is still in ok shape to take on BJP and BSP in Hindu areas.  Still, all things equal INC will most likely lose to AAP in the 2022 Punjab assembly election.
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jaichind
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« Reply #759 on: July 18, 2021, 12:12:45 PM »

Social equation of new team of Punjab INC

Prez - Navjot Singh Sidhu: Jat Sikh
4 Working Prez:
1) Sangat Singh: OBC Sikh
2) Kuljeet Nagra: Jat Sikh
3) Sukhwinder Singh Danny: Dalit Sikh
4) Pawan Goyal: Hindu
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« Reply #760 on: July 18, 2021, 12:19:30 PM »

What party do you prefer to do well in Uttar Pradesh if the BJP doesn't do well, the SP or the BSP or the INC?
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jaichind
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« Reply #761 on: July 18, 2021, 02:04:30 PM »

What party do you prefer to do well in Uttar Pradesh if the BJP doesn't do well, the SP or the BSP or the INC?

These parties are mostly different in terms of social groups and really have no fundamental ideological differences so it would he hard for me to choose.  I think even including BJP which has drifted toward populist I would say I would prefer SP in UP.  SP's core are Yadavs which tend to be higher income small landowners and are more likely to be for free market policies.  BJP in many ways are still the party of economic reform but in UP it is now purely a populist party based on a coalition of Upper Caste and Thakars.   BSP and INC are both very opportunist as well.   But again, in practice all of them are about competitive populism and mostly there are not much a difference between them.
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« Reply #762 on: July 19, 2021, 11:09:32 AM »

That would be NSS the ex-cricketer, I assume?

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jaichind
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« Reply #763 on: July 19, 2021, 11:48:01 AM »

That would be NSS the ex-cricketer, I assume?



Correct.  I forgot to mention Navjot Singh Sidhu main claim to fame.  He was also a media personality mostly as a cricket commenter before getting into politics by joining the BJP.  He also have been involved in several cases where he has been charged with homicide.  Overall a very colorful personality. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #764 on: July 21, 2021, 04:35:02 AM »

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/indias-excess-deaths-during-covid-19-pandemic-up-to-4-9-million-study-101626785505459.html

"India's excess deaths during Covid-19 pandemic up to 4.9 million: Study"

To be fair there are several studies, excess deaths are anywhere from 3 million to 4.9 million.

I sort of also, using very limited data on death of UP MLA, also indicate that the level of deaths in India from COVID-19 must be a lot higher than official estimates

https://www.news18.com/news/india/up-minister-and-charthawal-mla-vijay-kashyap-succumbs-to-covid-19-3751640.html

"UP Minister Vijay Kashyap Succumbs to Covid-19, Fifth BJP MLA to Lose Battle to Virus"

In UP it seems 5 MLAs already have died from this most recent COVID-19 surge.  UP has 403 MLAs.  If look at the % of India's population above 50 (which I assume is the cast for the large majority of UP MLAs) which would be around 300 million this sort of death rate would be if 3 million Indians died from the latest wave.  Granted the typical MLA lifestyle would make him or her especially vulnerable to catching COVID-19 but this death rate is quite amazing and implies the official death rate in India is vastly underreported due to lack of medical infrastructure in rural areas to test and report COVID-19 deaths.
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jaichind
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« Reply #765 on: July 21, 2021, 05:15:53 AM »

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/nagaland-to-have-no-opposition-party-as-naga-people-front-joins-ruling-people-democratic-alliance-2491031

"Nagaland To Have No Opposition Party As NPF Joins Ruling PDA"

This one is interesting.   In Nagaland it used to be NPF-BJP vs INC with NPF having the upper hand and BJP being a minor ally of the dominate NPF.  The with the rise of the BJP the BJP wanted a better deal and worked to split NPF with NDPP splitting and and forming an alliance with BJP with BJP getting a better deal.  NDPP-BJP narrowly defeated NPF in 2018 assembly elections with INC being pushed to a poor third.  Ever since then there have been maneuvers within the ruling alliance for both NDPP and BJP to get the upper hand over each other.  In 2019 LS elections NPF actually backed INC and nearly defeated NDPP candidate backed by BJP  There has been talks that BJP was going to dump NDPP and bring back NPF as its ally.  It seems NDPP struck first by forming and alliance with NPF and getting them into the ruling alliance.  It seems NDPP's plans is for NDPP-NPF to squeeze out BJP in terms of influence within the ruling alliance.  In the meantime there are no more opposition MLA in Nagaland.
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jaichind
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« Reply #766 on: July 24, 2021, 08:14:54 PM »

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/appoint-non-lingayat-as-next-chief-minister-of-karnataka-suggests-bs-yediyurappa-1832159-2021-07-24

"Appoint non-Lingayat as next chief minister of Karnataka, suggests BS Yediyurappa"

Rumors of Yexit or removal of Karnataka BJP CM Yediyurappa are swirling again and it seems it might take place any minute.  It seems BJP high command will want to replace Yediyurappa with another Lingayat so it will not face massive Lingayat  defections in the 2023 Karnataka assembly elections.  Yediyurappa  is openly calling for the opposite knowing that such a move will leave him in control of the  Lingayat vote and trying to stare down the BJP high command from removing him.  It seems things will come to a head soon.
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jaichind
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« Reply #767 on: July 26, 2021, 05:20:48 AM »

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/bs-yediyurappa-says-will-resign-as-karnataka-chief-minister-ending-days-of-speculation-2494885

"BS Yediyurappa Breaks Down, Resigns As Karnataka Chief Minister"

End of an era.  BJP CM Yediyurappa resigns.  He claims it was of its own accord but it is clear he was pressured by BJP high command fearing a splint in the BJP by factions opposed to Yediyurappa  trying to groom his son BY Raghavendra as his successor.  Yediyurappa has ruled out any role in the center or as a governor.  He seems determined to stay a key player behind the scenes for the Karnataka BJP. 

The BJP now faces a dilemma of how to pick his successor.  Not picking a Lingayat would risk the anger of the Lingayat community but picking a Lingayat would provoke Yediyurappa  who would see that as a threat to himself as the top dog as the leader of the Lingayat in Karnataka.
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jaichind
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« Reply #768 on: July 26, 2021, 05:38:47 AM »

Yediyurappa ran in every assembly election in Karnataka since the founding of the BJP.  He ran in 1983 1985 1989 1994 1999 2004 2008 2013 and 2018.  He ran as BJP every election except for 2013 when he ran for KJP which was a BJP splinter founded by Yediyurappa.  He won every time except for 1999.  In 1985 he was one of only 2 BJP MLA elected.
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« Reply #769 on: July 26, 2021, 11:34:16 PM »

I heard that the INC chose Priyanka to be their spokesperson in Uttar Pradesh because she looks like Indira Gandhi or something to that nature. Is this anywhere near true?
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jaichind
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« Reply #770 on: July 27, 2021, 03:41:03 PM »

I heard that the INC chose Priyanka to be their spokesperson in Uttar Pradesh because she looks like Indira Gandhi or something to that nature. Is this anywhere near true?

This was done in 2019.  Priyanka Gandhi was put in charge of Eastern UP in the 2019 LS elections.  She did not run herself so INC totally flopped.  In 2022 UP assembly elections it seems Priyanka Gandhi's mandate is the entire UP although uncertainty on if she will run herself and be the INC CM candidate will again most likely sap any goodwill she has. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #771 on: July 28, 2021, 05:50:58 AM »

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/karnataka-new-chief-minister-bjp-legislature-party-meeting-lingayat-mla-basavaraj-bommai-1833286-2021-07-27

"Basavaraj Bommai to take oath as 23rd chief minister of Karnataka at 11 am today"

Basavaraj Bommai has been selected to become the next BJP CM of Karnataka.  He is a Lingayat but does not have a RSS background and was close to Yediyurappa.   His father SR Bommai was JD CM of Karnataka in 1989-1989 and led JD into a disastrous election defeat at the hands of INC due to the split of the old JNP vote where a faction of the JNP refused to merge into JD.   SR Bommai remained a kingpin of JD and went with the pro-BJP JD(U) when JD split in 1999 and then formed AIPJD in 2002 before merging it back into JD(U) in 2004.  Basavaraj Bommai  only joined the BJP after his father SR Bommai died in 2007 as a protégé of Yediyurappa.

With Yediyurappa moving on Yogi Adityanath is the only BJP CM left that really have his own base and could win an election without Modi.  All other BJP CM either are not from the dominate caste of the state or does not have influence over the BJP cadre/base and will be dependent on Modi to win any election.
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jaichind
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« Reply #772 on: July 30, 2021, 10:16:14 AM »

https://indianexpress.com/article/india/congress-holds-meetings-over-prashant-kishor-revival-plan-strategist-wants-in-7429295/

"Congress holds meetings over Prashant Kishor ‘revival plan’; strategist wants in"

There are talks that Prashant Kishor might join INC.  Prashant Kishor was part of the 2014 BJP campaign but soon after that shifted against the BJP.  The was with JD(U) for a while before falling out with Nitish Kumar.  He then worked for AITC and DMK to help them with their election victories.  Him joining INC should be seen as WB AITC CM Mamata Banerjee's agent to help INC be part of a grand anti-BJP alliance in 2024.
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jaichind
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« Reply #773 on: July 31, 2021, 06:25:06 AM »

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/explained-decades-old-assam-mizoram-border-row-behind-fresh-violence-2499295

"Explained: Decades-Old Assam-Mizoram Border Row Behind Fresh Violence"

A state of psudo-war has broken out between Assam and Mizoram over a border dispute that goes back over 100 years.  This is despite the fact that Assam is under BJP rule and Mizoram is under pro-NDA MNF rule.  There already have been exchange of fire between the police forces of both states leading to  multiple deaths in the police forces of both states.  Mizoram has put out an warrant of arrest for the Assam CM while various Assam BJP MLAs are calling for a blockade of Mizoram to cut of energy supplies into Mizoram.  It seems BJP Interior  Minister and likely Modi successor Amit Shah will have a lot on his hands to try to deescalate this. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #774 on: August 03, 2021, 05:07:37 PM »

Latest Lok Poll for Punjab 2020 assembly elections

INC       60
AAP       31
SAD      20
BJP         1
Others    5

This poll results fits my narrative that INC will sweep BJP and BSP in Hindu areas while in Sikh areas AAP and SAD will split the anti-INC vote to lead to a 3 way split of seats in Sikh areas.  I suspect these numbers are too positive for INC as the ruling party.
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