India 2021 assembly elections - TN, Kerala, WB, Assam, and perhaps J&K
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eos
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« Reply #700 on: May 25, 2021, 03:25:47 PM »

The government is cracking down on social media

https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/india-twitter-ban-whatsapp-instagram-b1853613.html

There are also some reports that the BJP leadership is worried about the fallout of the pandemic in the coming polls.

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/coronavirus-prime-minister-narendra-modi-at-bjp-rss-meet-to-discuss-covid-fallout-on-image-polls-sources-2448145
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« Reply #701 on: May 25, 2021, 03:32:06 PM »

If the general election for the Lok Sabha was held today, how would it go?

There are some signs of trouble for the NDA, but the opposition is in no position to form a government. I think the NDA will probably have enough seats for a majority, and failing that, they will have enough seats to rope in a few regional parties to form the government.
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« Reply #702 on: May 25, 2021, 03:33:45 PM »

https://www.indiatoday.in/magazine/up-front/story/20210531-congress-the-imminent-return-of-rahul-1805676-2021-05-22

"Congress: The imminent return of Rahul"

INC indicates the long awaited election for INC Prez will take place June 23rd which means that Rahul Gandhi is ready to come back as INC Prez.  I guess even though the assembly election was a flop for INC the Gandhi clan is able to still consolidate their control of INC due to the impact of Modi's falling popularity as a result of the COVID-19 surge.  It seems the anti-Gandhi bloc in the INC have accepted the return of Rahul Gandhi and are now only fighting to a larger say for them in deciding making once Rahul Gandhi comes back.

INC's factional troubles will continue to cost them. There are now reports of a conflict in the Punjab INC between the CM Amarinder Singh, and popular leader Navjhot Singh Sidhu.
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jaichind
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« Reply #703 on: May 25, 2021, 05:07:47 PM »

If the general election for the Lok Sabha was held today, how would it go?

If Modi is leading the BJP into battle I think BJP will win although they will lose some seats.  Critical is that right now in UP it will be a 4 way battle between BJP SP BSP and INC a reduced BJP still should be able to win a majority of seats.  In other BJP vs INC battlegrounds Modi still outmatches Rahul Gandhi in a Presidential like election.  I think the government handling of  COVID-19 surge will clearly hurt the BJP in urban areas but in rural areas Modi's image is reduced but still viewed as someone that is doing his best even of the execution is not great.
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jaichind
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« Reply #704 on: May 25, 2021, 05:11:59 PM »

https://www.indiatoday.in/magazine/up-front/story/20210531-congress-the-imminent-return-of-rahul-1805676-2021-05-22

"Congress: The imminent return of Rahul"

INC indicates the long awaited election for INC Prez will take place June 23rd which means that Rahul Gandhi is ready to come back as INC Prez.  I guess even though the assembly election was a flop for INC the Gandhi clan is able to still consolidate their control of INC due to the impact of Modi's falling popularity as a result of the COVID-19 surge.  It seems the anti-Gandhi bloc in the INC have accepted the return of Rahul Gandhi and are now only fighting to a larger say for them in deciding making once Rahul Gandhi comes back.

INC's factional troubles will continue to cost them. There are now reports of a conflict in the Punjab INC between the CM Amarinder Singh, and popular leader Navjhot Singh Sidhu.

It seems INC is also having rebellion issues in Chhattisgarh (TS Singh Deo) and Rajasthan (Sachin Pilot.)  The core issue is still INC High Command culture where an INC faction has to convince the Gandhi's that they might bolt for the Gandhi clan to shower them with "candies" and a share of power at the expense of the ruling CM.  Of course that creates problems with INC High Command and the local INC CM.  Of often the best way for the INC to operate is to be in the opposition but that just mean they die a slow death of political talent going over to the BJP over time.
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eos
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« Reply #705 on: May 27, 2021, 09:41:15 AM »

https://www.indiatoday.in/magazine/up-front/story/20210531-congress-the-imminent-return-of-rahul-1805676-2021-05-22

"Congress: The imminent return of Rahul"

INC indicates the long awaited election for INC Prez will take place June 23rd which means that Rahul Gandhi is ready to come back as INC Prez.  I guess even though the assembly election was a flop for INC the Gandhi clan is able to still consolidate their control of INC due to the impact of Modi's falling popularity as a result of the COVID-19 surge.  It seems the anti-Gandhi bloc in the INC have accepted the return of Rahul Gandhi and are now only fighting to a larger say for them in deciding making once Rahul Gandhi comes back.

INC's factional troubles will continue to cost them. There are now reports of a conflict in the Punjab INC between the CM Amarinder Singh, and popular leader Navjhot Singh Sidhu.

It seems INC is also having rebellion issues in Chhattisgarh (TS Singh Deo) and Rajasthan (Sachin Pilot.)  The core issue is still INC High Command culture where an INC faction has to convince the Gandhi's that they might bolt for the Gandhi clan to shower them with "candies" and a share of power at the expense of the ruling CM.  Of course that creates problems with INC High Command and the local INC CM.  Of often the best way for the INC to operate is to be in the opposition but that just mean they die a slow death of political talent going over to the BJP over time.

There is still 2 years until the Chattisgarh and Rajasthan elections. However, Punjab is going to elections next year. INC have less than a year to solve the issues in Punjab.

Congress MLA and ally of Navjhot Singh Siddhu openly questioning the CM Amarinder Singh.

https://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/2021/may/24/party-might-suffer-if-2022-punjab-polls-are-fought-under-leadership-of-amarinder-singh-congress-mla-2307036.html
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jaichind
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« Reply #706 on: May 27, 2021, 11:35:46 AM »

I computed the state level assembly vote share index (looking backward) by 6 different blocs. 

INC
BJP Splinters (BJS of 2006-2013, JVM 2009-2020, RLP, LSP etc etc)
INC
INC splinters (AITC, NCP, YSRCP and many more)
Janata Parivar (various JNP LKD and JD and their splinters, RJD JD(U) JD(S) SP BJD INLD RLD JJP LJP and many more)
Left (various Left parties, CPM CPI CPI(ML) RSP AIFB PWPI and many more)

In many cases these parties are running against each other and/or are in alliance with INC or BJP.  Still adding them up gives you a sense of strength of these blocs.

Takeaways are
1) INC's decline is more about just losing major splinters (AITC NCP YSRCP).  The sum of INC and INC splinters in 2021 is only slightly lower than the same sum in mid 2000s. 
2) The decline of Janata Parviar and Left are secular and have been going on for decades with the fall of the Left being especially fast last few years.
3) BJP seems to be more gaining from Janata Parviar and Left and less INC and INC splinters.  BJP splinter are going nowhere which means the pro-BJP vote are consolidated to deliver it victory after victory over this last decade.


            BJP        BJP       INC       INC      Janata      Left
                       Splinter             Splinter
2021   29.10%  0.29%  19.52%  9.37%  10.69%   3.04%
2020   26.56%  0.30%  20.68%  8.83%  10.94%   4.81%
2019   26.82%  0.30%  20.67%  8.91%   9.99%   4.74%
2018   26.44%  0.37%  21.17%  8.68%  10.10%   4.83%
2017   25.80%  0.90%  19.99%  9.04%  10.27%   4.98%
2016   21.87%  1.27%  20.68%  9.43%  11.29%   5.14%
2015   21.06%  1.32%  21.03%  8.65%  11.66%   6.32%
2014   20.54%  1.35%  21.56%  8.86%  11.23%   6.40%
2013   18.30%  1.32%  24.52%  6.37%  11.26%   6.77%
2012   17.16%  0.87%  23.98%  6.43%  11.72%   7.10%
2011   17.23%  0.58%  23.93%  6.71%  10.63%   7.57%
2010   17.43%  0.59%  24.40%  5.18%  10.94%   7.71%
2009   17.40%  0.60%  24.47%  5.17%  10.89%   7.81%
2008   17.80%  0.43%  24.76%  5.08%  11.06%   8.11%
2007   17.83%  0.13%  24.58%  5.40%  11.70%   8.16%
2006   18.03%  0.04%  24.34%  5.68%  11.87%   8.25%
2005   18.68%  0.03%  24.05%  6.47%  12.27%   7.69%
2004   18.37%  0.00%  23.93%  6.64%  12.63%   7.86%
2003   18.28%  0.00%  24.68%  6.89%  12.68%   8.15%
2002   17.10%  0.00%  25.32%  6.75%  12.90%   8.42%
2001   18.38%  0.50%  24.49%  6.83%  12.82%   8.73%
2000   18.57%  0.51%  27.49%  4.05%  12.90%   8.76%
1999   17.98%  0.51%  28.15%  4.07%  12.06%   8.88%
1998   17.60%  0.51%  27.08%  2.45%  12.97%   9.23%
1997   17.57%  0.00%  26.42%  2.41%  13.34%   9.34%
1996   17.82%  0.00%  26.56%  2.45%  13.61%   9.44%
1995   17.65%  0.00%  29.12%  1.27%  14.02%   9.27%
1994   17.30%  0.00%  29.25%  1.42%  15.71%   9.67%
1993   16.47%  0.00%  31.38%  0.98%  15.99%   9.66%
1992   14.18%  0.00%  31.34%  1.06%  16.84%  10.36%
1991   13.94%  0.00%  31.37%  1.05%  16.63%  10.31%
1990   10.36%  0.00%  32.94%  0.75%  17.10%   9.96%
1989     7.62%  0.00%  37.79%  2.18%  13.90%  10.76%
1988     7.47%  0.00%  37.96%  2.82%  13.22%  11.80%
1987     7.48%  0.00%  37.93%  2.82%  13.24%  11.78%
1986     7.44%  0.00%  37.28%  3.53%  13.35%  10.70%
1985     7.44%  0.00%  37.28%  3.53%  13.35%  10.70%
1984     7.78%  0.00%  35.83%  5.62%  13.43%  11.81%
1983     7.87%  0.00%  36.44%  5.81%  13.71%  12.00%
 
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jaichind
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« Reply #707 on: May 27, 2021, 02:26:43 PM »

If the general election for the Lok Sabha was held today, how would it go?

I do not know much about them but Asia Elects claimed they did a poll in April where they had NDA with a bare majority

NDA  269
UPA  139



They also have BJP retaining a reduced majority in Uttarakhand which I find hard to believe.  BJP will most likely sweep Uttarakhand in the next LS election but they state government will most likely be defeated in 2022.  This poll seems to indicate an AAP surge that cut into the anti-BJP vote.
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jaichind
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« Reply #708 on: May 31, 2021, 08:10:56 PM »

https://www.hindustantimes.com/cities/kolkata-news/mamata-banerjee-writes-to-pm-modi-says-won-t-release-bengal-chief-secretary-101622443647419.html

"‘Shocked, stunned’ Mamata writes to PM Modi, says can’t release chief secretary"

Every since the dust settled in the WB assembly elections and Mamata Banerjee sworn in for her third term as CM there has been snipping back and forth between Mamata Banerjee and Modi/BJP.  In a series of clashes over issues that seems like it belongs in elementary school over who showed up late to to a Modi-Banerjee meeting to BJP intentionally inviting WB BJP Leader of Opposition and ex-Mamata Banerjee confident Suvendu Adhikari to a meeting on COVID-19 to BJP, it seems, pulling the centrally appointed WB chief secretary from WB last minute makes it clear that the bittiness between Modi/BJP and  Mamata Banerjee runs deep and will only get worse as the 2024 LS elections approaches.
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jaichind
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« Reply #709 on: June 02, 2021, 09:44:56 AM »
« Edited: June 02, 2021, 12:22:43 PM by jaichind »

https://news.abplive.com/news/india/abp-news-c-voter-survey-pm-narendra-modi-government-2-years-corona-crisis-india-management-who-better-leader-people-survey-2021-1460814

C-Voter poll on job approval of key leaders

BJP
Satisfied                                31
Satisfied  to some extent        28
Not Satisfied                          37

Modi
Satisfied                               37
Satisfied  to some extent        25
Not Satisfied                         36

Rahul Gandhi
Satisfied                               18
Satisfied  to some extent        22
Not Satisfied                          41

Amit Shah
Satisfied                               28
Satisfied  to some extent        22
Not Satisfied                         37

Overall while there has been some decline in approval of BJP, Modi, and Amit Shah, they are still higher than Rahul Gandhi.   Although post-Modi, Amit Shah approval/disapprove of 50/37 vs Rahul Gandhi of 40/41 does mean that the gap is not massive and that Rahul Gandhi could be somewhat competitive in a post-Modi world.
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jaichind
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« Reply #710 on: June 02, 2021, 07:31:51 PM »



AINRC leader Rangaswamy is still CM but 3 independents have announced support to BJP while 1 independent has joined AINRC.  BJP also has control of the 3 nominated MLAs.  So now the  Puducherry assembly is

BJP: 6+3+3 = 12
AINRC : 10 +1 = 11
DMK : 6
INC : 2
Independents : 2

On paper it is an AINRC-BJP government but if the BJP gets the other 2 independents on board they might be ready to act to take over by going after INC and AINRC MLAs.  I can see Rangaswamy potentially preventively trying to dump BJP and try to get DMK and INC to join his government to prevent a possible BJP offensive to take over.

A month after elections the entire government formation is in a deadlock.  Only AINRC leader Rangaswamy has been sworn in as CM.  Neither his cabinet nor the speaker of the assembly have been selected.  At this stage AINRC has 11 MLA (10 AINRC + 1 independent) while BJP has 12 MLAs (6 BJP + 3 independents + 3 appointed by the federal government).  BJP is demanding the speakership, DCM and at least half of the ministers while AINRC refuses these conditions completely.  The most critical role is assembly speaker.  Even if BJP and AINRC forms a government it is clear both will be out to backstab either other pretty soon in a battle for supremacy with spy vs spy battles and buying of MLAs.  The speaker will get to decide which defections are legal and which ones are not.  It seems the deadlock will go on for a while and in the meantime there is no real government in Puducherry.
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jaichind
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« Reply #711 on: June 03, 2021, 09:19:44 PM »

https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/chandigarh/punjab-congress-feud-three-aap-mlas-leave-for-delhi-with-cm-7342332/

"Punjab Congress feud: Three AAP MLAs join Congress"

Despite a civil war going on in the Punjab INC, 3 AAP rebel MLA join INC.  This includes Sukhpal Khaira, former leader of the opposition, and founder of AAP splinter PEP.  As a result PEP has merged into INC.
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jaichind
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« Reply #712 on: June 04, 2021, 02:21:32 PM »

https://indianexpress.com/article/india/bsp-shrinks-even-more-as-mayawati-expels-two-senior-leaders-7343207/

"BSP shrinks even more as Mayawati expels two senior leaders"

Things are heating up in UP a year ahead of assembly elections in 2022.  I disagree with the headline.  The two leaders Mayawati expelled from BSP are of Kurmi caste (Lalji Verma) and Rajbhar caste (Ram Achal Rajbhar).  It seems both have been in touch with SP and BJP.  Mayawati expelled them is more of a show of force to her Dalit base that BSP is about Dalits and will not bend backwards to placate non-Dalits that want to rid the coattails of BSP.  The SP-BSP alliance in 2019 LS clearly show that SP was able to transfer its Yadav and Muslim base to BSP candidates but BSP was not able to shift its Dalit base to SP.   For Mayawati the key focus has now to be survival and consolidate its Dalit vote in 2022.
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jaichind
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« Reply #713 on: June 05, 2021, 07:33:22 AM »

https://www.thenewsminute.com/article/sasikala-s-calls-cadres-leak-plan-set-motion-her-comeback-150014

"As Sasikala’s calls to cadres ‘leak’, a plan is set in motion for her comeback"

It seems 3 months after "retiring" from politics, most likely under pressure from the BJP,  fromer AIADMK leader Sasikala is looking to come back to active politics and take over the AIADMK.

It seems she is taking advantage of renewed battles between EPS and OPS for control of AIADMK

OPS on the left, EPS on the right


After the death of Jayalalithaa in late 2016, perennial puppet CM OPS was made CM but control of the party went to Jayalalithaa aide Sasikala had control of AIADMK.  As corruption charges became to close in on Sasikala (most likely BJP is behind this), Sasikala needed to become CM to avoid prosecution and pushed OPS to step down for her to take over.  OPS stepped down but then bolted and AIADMK split into Sasikala and OPS factions.  The pro-BJP governor refused to invite Sasikala to become CM and she was arrested for corruption and put in jail.  Before she was put away she put in EPS in charge of the Sasikala faction and EPS was installed as CM.  EPS then reconciled with OPS and kicked the jailed Sasikala  out of AIADMK with hardcare pro-Sasikala elements forming AMMK under the leadership of Sasikala nephew TTV Dhinakaran.  EPS and OPS most likely did this to make sure the they controlled the AIADMK party symbol without which both factions will be wiped out in the 2021 TN assembly elections.  EPS-OPS dual leadership of AIADMK sort of worked from 2017 to 2021 and overall avoided a complete meltdown of AIADMK in the 2021 assembly elections.

Then Sasikala was let out of prison in early 2021 and it seems under pressure from BJP, "retired" from politics.  Under EPS's leadership AIADMK did better than expected in the 2021 TN assembly elections mostly by pushing his Gounder identity and focusing on Kongu Nadu where  Gounder are more numerous.  AIADMK did well in Kongu Nadu but did poorly elsewhere but for EPS this was a victory since the AIADMK MLAs will have a Kongu Nadu lean.  After the elections OPS, it seems has made moves to recapture control of AIADMK.  It seems that OPS is making common cause with Sasikala to try to take on EPS.  Note both OPS and Sasikala  are Thevars which are more numerous in Pandya Nadu.  Thevars  traditionally dominated AIADMK but now part of the reason OPS is forming a clandestine alliance with his old nemeses  Sasikala is Thevars pressure to retake control of AIADMK from the Gounders led by EPS. 

The great balancer in this upcoming battle will be BJP.  If BJP sees that a Sasikala led AIADMK with AMMK merged into it could recapture the Thevars  vote for AIADMK and help the BJP in the 2024 LS elections they might shift their bets from EPS to Sasikala.
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« Reply #714 on: June 09, 2021, 06:29:31 PM »

Ahead of the 2022 UP elections, INC leader Jitin Prasada joins BJP.

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/congress-leader-jitin-prasada-to-join-bjp-today-sources-2459751
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jaichind
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« Reply #715 on: June 09, 2021, 07:18:59 PM »


I was about to write about this.  Big blow for INC as his father was a key INC Brahmin leader in UP.  INC tends to do better in UP when they can get their old Brahmin vote (BJP-INC swing voters) and Muslim vote (SP-INC swing voters) to come back.  But it becomes a chicken and egg thing.  If one of the two clearly is not voting for INC then the other bloc will also stay away as to not waste their vote.  Not sure this will benefit BJP that much but I guess they benefit implicitly by making INC getting the Brahmin vote in 2022 less likely.
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jaichind
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« Reply #716 on: June 11, 2021, 06:25:57 AM »

https://www.hindustantimes.com/cities/kolkata-news/mukul-roy-prepares-to-return-to-tmc-bengal-bjp-shows-indifference-101623402746874.html

"BJP national vice-president Mukul Roy set to make his return to Trinamool Congress"

After BJP went with once close Mamata Banerjee confidant turned AITC defector Suvendu Adhikari leader of WB BJP, the other once close Mamata Banerjee confidant turned AITC defector Mukul Roy (who defected from AITC to BJP in 2017) seems to be defecting back to AITC.
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jaichind
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« Reply #717 on: June 12, 2021, 06:38:37 PM »

Lok Poll for Uttarakhand has

          Vote Share     Seats
INC        35%             39
BJP        33%             26
AAP       11%              3
BSP        3.5%            1
Others                        1

Poll seem to show that new BJP CM Tirath Singh Rawat is not that popular and that AAP's projection of Colonel Ajay Kothiyal is eating into the BJP vote.  Modi still very popular so BJP still has a chance but it is clear that in 2022 will be an uphill battle for BJP.
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jaichind
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« Reply #718 on: June 14, 2021, 07:58:07 AM »

https://www.deccanherald.com/national/national-politics/ljp-implodes-five-mps-oust-chirag-paswan-as-leader-elect-pashupati-kumar-paras-997396.html

"LJP implodes, five MPs oust Chirag Paswan as leader, elect Pashupati Kumar Paras"

This is Nitish Kumar's payback to BJP for using LJP to cut JD(U) down to size in the 2020 assembly elections.  Now Nitish Kumar strikes back by forming an alliance with Pashupati Kumar Paras who is the uncle of LJP leader Chirag Paswan.  I assume all this are moves to eventually merge LJP into JD(U) and leave Chirag Paswan out in the cold with a rump LJP.

It seems by the next Bihar assembly elections BJP and JD(U) will not be on the same side and Nitish Kumar are cleaning out a potential BJP ally.
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« Reply #719 on: June 14, 2021, 09:15:13 AM »
« Edited: June 14, 2021, 09:22:00 AM by randomusername »

https://www.deccanherald.com/national/national-politics/ljp-implodes-five-mps-oust-chirag-paswan-as-leader-elect-pashupati-kumar-paras-997396.html

"LJP implodes, five MPs oust Chirag Paswan as leader, elect Pashupati Kumar Paras"

This is Nitish Kumar's payback to BJP for using LJP to cut JD(U) down to size in the 2020 assembly elections.  Now Nitish Kumar strikes back by forming an alliance with Pashupati Kumar Paras who is the uncle of LJP leader Chirag Paswan.  I assume all this are moves to eventually merge LJP into JD(U) and leave Chirag Paswan out in the cold with a rump LJP.

It seems by the next Bihar assembly elections BJP and JD(U) will not be on the same side and Nitish Kumar are cleaning out a potential BJP ally.

Any chance that the younger Paswan could defect to another party?

In a sense, this seems like a gift to Tejashwi Yadav. Now he seems to be the sole youth leader in a potential post-Nitish world.

I don't think Paswan would join the RJD since he'd be junior to Tejashwi. I think he could be a potential get for the INC, but that could hurt them with the upper-caste vote.
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jaichind
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« Reply #720 on: June 14, 2021, 10:59:54 AM »

https://www.deccanherald.com/national/national-politics/ljp-implodes-five-mps-oust-chirag-paswan-as-leader-elect-pashupati-kumar-paras-997396.html

"LJP implodes, five MPs oust Chirag Paswan as leader, elect Pashupati Kumar Paras"

This is Nitish Kumar's payback to BJP for using LJP to cut JD(U) down to size in the 2020 assembly elections.  Now Nitish Kumar strikes back by forming an alliance with Pashupati Kumar Paras who is the uncle of LJP leader Chirag Paswan.  I assume all this are moves to eventually merge LJP into JD(U) and leave Chirag Paswan out in the cold with a rump LJP.

It seems by the next Bihar assembly elections BJP and JD(U) will not be on the same side and Nitish Kumar are cleaning out a potential BJP ally.

Any chance that the younger Paswan could defect to another party?

In a sense, this seems like a gift to Tejashwi Yadav. Now he seems to be the sole youth leader in a potential post-Nitish world.

I don't think Paswan would join the RJD since he'd be junior to Tejashwi. I think he could be a potential get for the INC, but that could hurt them with the upper-caste vote.

I doubt it.  On the long run after Nitish Kumar retires from active politics JD(U) will split into pro-BJP and pro-RJD factions if not earlier. Nitish Kumar will for sure be favoring the pro-RJD faction. 

Ram Vilas Paswan and Chirag Paswan are both very hostile to Nitish Kumar and the feeling is mutual.  Ram Vilas Paswan sabotaged  Nitish Kumar chance to be CM of united Bihar in 2000 and then split off from JD(U) to form LJP.    LJP did not show up in an alliance with JD(U) again since with the exception of 2019 LS election.  LJP was aligned with RJD and INC after that and LJP only joined NDA in 2014 only after JD(U) and BJP split. 

Given this Chirag Paswan will see his future as being part of the BJP bloc in opposition to RJD-INC and the pro-Nitish Kumar JD(U).  As a result he is likely to form a rump LJP and ally with BJP or just join BJP and not seek his future with RJD.
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jaichind
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« Reply #721 on: June 14, 2021, 11:04:49 AM »

BTW, it will not surprise me at all if Modi/BJP stock goes down by doing badly in the 2017 UP assembly elections that Nitish Kumar will break its alliance with BJP and form a government with RJD.

If so we will get

2015: Bihar voted for JD(U)-RJD government but then get JD(U)-BJP government
2020: Bihar voted for JD(U)-BJP government but then get JD(U)-RJD government

It is just like

2007: Australia voted for Rudd as PM but then gets Gillard as PM
2010: Australia voted for Gillard  as PM but then gets Rudd as PM
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jaichind
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« Reply #722 on: June 14, 2021, 11:11:17 AM »

https://scroll.in/latest/997507/aiadmk-expels-16-party-members-for-speaking-with-vk-sasikala-passes-resolution-warning-cadres

"AIADMK expels 16 party members for speaking with VK Sasikala, passes resolution warning cadres"

So now just talked to former AIADMK leader Sasikala gets you expelled from the AIADMK.  The AIADMK crisis must be getting worse to lead them to do this.  The EPS-OPS battle continues with AIADMK with EPS controlling party machinery so this order came from EPS.  OPS seems to be rallying anti-RPS forces mostly along caste pointing out the the Gondars are getting disproportionate size of the power under EPS's leadership.  There will be a coming war with EPS vs Sasikala-OPS for control of AIADMK.  AIADMK most likely will not breakup.  AIADMK's most prized asset is its election symbol with the faction losing it becoming irrelevant.  So a split is not an option, it will be a battle to the death with on side with total control of AIADMK.
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jaichind
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« Reply #723 on: June 14, 2021, 09:21:23 PM »

Despite the well known infighting in the Punjab and Rajasthan INC the BJP is also having problems with leadership issues in UP and Karnataka.  Since these problems are not out in the open they are less covered but are equally problematic.

The core issue is most BJP CMs do not have a base of their own and are fairly docile when it comes to obeying BJP Modi-Shah high command.   The main exception to this are UP CM Adityanath  and Karnataka CM Yediyurappa. 

Due to the setback in WB and the COVID-19 surge the image of the BJP high command of Modi-Shah has taken a hit but the popularity of UP CM  Adityanath did not seem to have taken a large hit in the core BJP vote.  As a result if Adityanath  lead the BJP to a landslide victory in 2022 UP assembly it is likely he will make a move to capture control of the BJP after Modi retires from Amit Shah just like Modi as a popular Gujarat CM captured control of the BJP in 2013 from Advani.  There were talks of Adityanath being replace a couple of weeks ago but that seems not likely due to the support of the Hindi belt core BJP vote.  At this stage I bet Modi-Shah rather BJP fall just short of majority in 2022 UP than a landslide victory since the former would mean that they would have an excuse to remove Adityanath.

The latest rumor is

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/nation/now-rumours-of-ups-division-to-limit-yogi-adityanath-to-purvanchal-268349

"Now, rumours of UP's division to ‘limit Yogi Adityanath to Purvanchal’"

Where it is said that BJP Modi-Shah high command might act on an old demand to divide up UP into 4 smaller states and make Adityanath CM of the much smaller Purvanchal in Eastern UP


It is not clear if this is true but what is true is that tensions are rising between Modi-Shah and Adityanath even as they will continue to act cordially to each other.

In Karnataka it was BJP CM Yediyurappa that have his own vote base of megacaste Lingayats that managed to get BJP to the largest party status in 2004 2008 and 2018.  Otherwise the BJP would have lost those elections.  Both the BJP high command and Yediyurappa  knows this and fearful of Yediyurappa's base the BJP most likely will try to swap him out before the 2023 assembly elections using the excuse that Yediyurappa's age is well past the BJP age limit for leadership roles.  There is also a BJP fear that Yediyurappa will try to pass leadership of the BJP to his son Raghavendra.  As a result there are constant rumors that the BJP will remove Yediyurappa  which is constantly being denied by both BJP and Yediyurappa.  But these rumors refuse to die and will have to take place soon to give the new BJP non-Raghavendra CM time to build a brand and try to win in 2023.

As a result you keep on seeing articles like.

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/karnataka/story/karnataka-lingayat-seers-support-cm-yediyurappa-1814721-2021-06-14

"Karnataka: Lingayat seers express support for CM Yediyurappa amid speculation over change in leadership"

In 2012 after the BJP forced Yediyurappa out of the CM role he split from the BJP formed KJP and helped to hand the 2013 election to INC in a landslide by splitting the BJP vote.  Yediyurappa  came back to BJP in 2014 after Modi-Shah intervened and allowed him to lead the BJP in 2018 despite his record of betraying the BJP.   It seems another such 2012 type break might take place soon.
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jaichind
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« Reply #724 on: June 15, 2021, 06:37:28 AM »

https://www.deccanherald.com/national/national-politics/ljp-implodes-five-mps-oust-chirag-paswan-as-leader-elect-pashupati-kumar-paras-997396.html

"LJP implodes, five MPs oust Chirag Paswan as leader, elect Pashupati Kumar Paras"

This is Nitish Kumar's payback to BJP for using LJP to cut JD(U) down to size in the 2020 assembly elections.  Now Nitish Kumar strikes back by forming an alliance with Pashupati Kumar Paras who is the uncle of LJP leader Chirag Paswan.  I assume all this are moves to eventually merge LJP into JD(U) and leave Chirag Paswan out in the cold with a rump LJP.

It seems by the next Bihar assembly elections BJP and JD(U) will not be on the same side and Nitish Kumar are cleaning out a potential BJP ally.

Any chance that the younger Paswan could defect to another party?

In a sense, this seems like a gift to Tejashwi Yadav. Now he seems to be the sole youth leader in a potential post-Nitish world.

I don't think Paswan would join the RJD since he'd be junior to Tejashwi. I think he could be a potential get for the INC, but that could hurt them with the upper-caste vote.


https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/isolated-in-ljp-chiras-paswan-sees-offer-from-congress-rjd-1814994-2021-06-15

"Isolated in LJP, Chirag Paswan sees offer from Congress, RJD"

It seems you are right that both RJD and INC seems to want Chirag Paswan. Still I think Chirag Paswan sees his future with BJP as part of a future anti-Nitish Kumar bloc.
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