Was there any one mistake by Trump that cost him a second term?

[Pericles]

Clearly, Donald trump made a lot of mistakes over the last four years. And yet he was just 0.6% away from winning a second term. Usually when an election is that close, it is credible to say that one thing going differently would have changed the outcome. It's a bit less clear because the 2020 election was so polarized and the polling was so stable. Anyway, I'm not looking at things that are vague like 'govern as an actual populist' or 'respond well to Covid', but a specific mistake-ideally one gaffe, campaign decision or policy. Ideally it's something with a direct impact. Something like saying there were "very fine people" marching at Charlottesville cost him the presidency because it helped make Biden decide to run is not ideal. I see a few possibilities-if Trump had done an ok first debate performance like the second debate he may have won, if he had been stricter with social distancing protocols and so not caught Covid he may have won. I wonder whether his decline in military support was enough to cost him the election, I doubt it but the "losers and suckers" gaffe could have been damaging. On the other hand, Trump's loss overall was more of a 'death by a thousand cuts' thing where all his mistakes accumulated, so maybe there's a lot of stuff that he would have needed to do differently (even with such a tiny margin of defeat).

[The '90s' Last Champion]

Not taking COVID seriously, had he worn a mask and tried to handle the issue, i.e. implement lockdowns, contact tracing, etc., he would have had 60%+ approvals like literally every other world leader


Also praising the white supremacists at Charlottesville and trying to pass the AHCA are two other good ones.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Not taking COVID seriously, had he worn a mask and tried to handle the issue, i.e. implement lockdowns, contact tracing, etc., he would have had 60%+ approvals like literally every other world leader


Also praising the white supremacists at Charlottesville and trying to pass the AHCA are two other good ones.

The first one above.  If he'd shown some leadership on COVID instead of viewing it as a plot against him personally, he'd have won.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Not taking COVID seriously, had he worn a mask and tried to handle the issue, i.e. implement lockdowns, contact tracing, etc., he would have had 60%+ approvals like literally every other world leader


Also praising the white supremacists at Charlottesville and trying to pass the AHCA are two other good ones.

The first one above.  If he'd shown some leadership on COVID instead of viewing it as a plot against him personally, he'd have won.

If he had rallied the troops (so to speak) and handled COVID as a leader, I may have voted for him. 

[Podgy the Bear]

Not getting the stimulus package through in October.    If he had stayed focused and pushed harder on it, the Democrats would have been thrown clearly on the defensive.  And Trump would have picked up enough votes to win AZ, GA, and WI--possibly MI and PA as well.

[Mr. Third-Wayist]

Being born

[The Night Owlditor]

I'd like to nominate telling people to drink bleach and incessantly promoting Hydroxychloroquine as a treatment/cure. 

[Pericles]

I'd like to nominate telling people to drink bleach and incessantly promoting Hydroxychloroquine as a treatment/cure. 

That was damaging but I wonder if it was just symbolic of his lack of leadership, did it cost him 0.6% in margin on it's own? Another contender is the Bible photo op, but that might also have just been a very minor factor.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

As I have said many times, he was gonna lose anyways, income inequality was a problem before Covid, and Covid exacerbated income inequality. Trump did find the govt, but he only passed 1 reform bill and that was Tax cuts for the wealthy. He started a wall that Mexico never paid for and the minimum wage he said was open to never was raised. To 15.00.

All themes championed by Bernie, Booker and Biden, whom could have all won the nomination

[Mr. Smith]

COVID response, or lack thereof.

It certainly cost him my protest vote anyway.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I think people here are underestimating the "shy anti-lockdown/restriction" vote.  In 2020, especially, there were trends of people moving from more locked down states to less locked down ones, and almost none of the reverse.  Certainly, some parts of his covid response (like the drinking bleach comment) hurt him, but I don't know that he would have benefitted significantly from imposing major nationwide restrictions.

[TwinGeeks99]

All he needed to do to win the landslide re-election that he continues to baselessly claim happened was to act earlier when COVID hit, let the scientists do their jobs, pass stimulus checks, and just give generic speeches every day from the White House telling people to wear masks while calling for unity in getting through this together.

[Skill and Chance]

I think people here are underestimating the "shy anti-lockdown/restriction" vote.  In 2020, especially, there were trends of people moving from more locked down states to less locked down ones, and almost none of the reverse.  Certainly, some parts of his covid response (like the drinking bleach comment) hurt him, but I don't know that he would have benefitted significantly from imposing major nationwide restrictions.

This is all true, but what if they had just shut down travel between states for 2-4 weeks starting in late February/early March and required negative COVID tests at airports and at state borders on all major highways for the rest of the year? It seems like an obvious win that could have been framed as saving small business too?   

[Wrong about 2024 Ghost]

One specific thing?

Firing John Kelly as his Chief of Staff.

[Chips]

All he needed to do to win the landslide re-election that he continues to baselessly claim happened was to act earlier when COVID hit, let the scientists do their jobs, pass stimulus checks, and just give generic speeches every day from the White House telling people to wear masks while calling for unity in getting through this together.

Exactly this.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Being lazy and farming out the legislative agenda of his first 100 days to Paul Ryan and Congressional Republicans.

There was bipartisan support for a big infrastructure bill that along with not touching healthcare would have virtually guaranteed retaining the House in 2018.

[Tokugawa Sexgod Ieyasu]

I'd like to nominate telling people to drink bleach and incessantly promoting Hydroxychloroquine as a treatment/cure. 

That was damaging but I wonder if it was just symbolic of his lack of leadership, did it cost him 0.6% in margin on it's own? Another contender is the Bible photo op, but that might also have just been a very minor factor.

The Bible photo op galvanized a lot of moderate Catholic normies against him, and that's still an important swing group in the Rust Belt.

[BaldEagle1991]

I think him catching COVID may have had an impact near the last minute too, your average swing voter probably thought, "if he couldn't prevent it to himself, why would he prevent it throughout the nation?".

[Illini Moderate]

No. It was general lack of competence and arrogance. The man was unfit to be President in every aspect imaginable.

Politically, he was dumb to double down on his base without so much as a single significant attempt to expand it.

Personally, he was far too arrogant and stubborn to make changes to his behavior that would have made him more popular, or at least more palatable.

On policy, he was completely illiterate, had no idea what he was talking about when he brought up major issues (see his comments on healthcare in 2017) and only reinforced the idea that he was an idiot.

The idea that "handling COVID better" would have won him more votes is sad actually. That idea requires overlooking so much incompetence and evil. Here is a man who tear gassed peaceful protestors and purposely enflamed racial tensions in the country for political profit. A man who fired an FBI director solely because he was being investigated. A man who, at every chance he got, looked to divide, rather than unite our country by insulting and threatening any and all dissenters. Who LIED CONSTANTLY to the people he was supposed to be working to help.

Trump's actions directly led to an attempted coup on 1/06. He pushed conspiracies for YEARS, nonstop. He attempted to overturn a free and fair election and telegraphed that he would do exactly that since the day he was elected in 2016. Anyone who looks at an attempted f***ing coup in the United f***ing states and shrugs their shoulders or overlooks it is brainwashed. None of this was normal or justifiable and he should have never had the privilege of stepping foot in the Oval Office.

So no, there was no "one mistake" that cost him the Presidency. He cost himself the presidency by simply being Donald Trump.

[mpbond]

I think people here are underestimating the "shy anti-lockdown/restriction" vote.  In 2020, especially, there were trends of people moving from more locked down states to less locked down ones, and almost none of the reverse.  Certainly, some parts of his covid response (like the drinking bleach comment) hurt him, but I don't know that he would have benefitted significantly from imposing major nationwide restrictions.

But what if he hadn't made lockdowns a political issue? If he would have taken leadership back in March and encouraged lockdowns, as every scientist and doctor was urging, there would have been a lot less anti-lockdown votes. Sure there would have been some libertarian-esque resistance to any government measures, but it would not have been as significant as it ended up being. The thing about Trump is that his supporters listen to him. If he supported lockdowns, most of his base would have complied without significant pushback, with the added benefit of looking competent to Trump skeptics.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I think people here are underestimating the "shy anti-lockdown/restriction" vote.  In 2020, especially, there were trends of people moving from more locked down states to less locked down ones, and almost none of the reverse.  Certainly, some parts of his covid response (like the drinking bleach comment) hurt him, but I don't know that he would have benefitted significantly from imposing major nationwide restrictions.

But what if he hadn't made lockdowns a political issue? If he would have taken leadership back in March and encouraged lockdowns, as every scientist and doctor was urging, there would have been a lot less anti-lockdown votes. Sure there would have been some libertarian-esque resistance to any government measures, but it would not have been as significant as it ended up being. The thing about Trump is that his supporters listen to him. If he supported lockdowns, most of his base would have complied without significant pushback, with the added benefit of looking competent to Trump skeptics.

I disagree.  I don't think 95% of the opposition to lockdowns is ideological, but, rather, more along the lines of "I just want to live my life again and accept any risk that comes with that".

[It's Time.]

I don't think there was, because there was not 1 mistake that ruined Trump's COVID response or his BLM response.

[It's Time.]

Clearly, Donald trump made a lot of mistakes over the last four years. And yet he was just 0.6% away from winning a second term. Usually when an election is that close, it is credible to say that one thing going differently would have changed the outcome. It's a bit less clear because the 2020 election was so polarized and the polling was so stable. Anyway, I'm not looking at things that are vague like 'govern as an actual populist' or 'respond well to Covid', but a specific mistake-ideally one gaffe, campaign decision or policy. Ideally it's something with a direct impact. Something like saying there were "very fine people" marching at Charlottesville cost him the presidency because it helped make Biden decide to run is not ideal. I see a few possibilities-if Trump had done an ok first debate performance like the second debate he may have won, if he had been stricter with social distancing protocols and so not caught Covid he may have won. I wonder whether his decline in military support was enough to cost him the election, I doubt it but the "losers and suckers" gaffe could have been damaging. On the other hand, Trump's loss overall was more of a 'death by a thousand cuts' thing where all his mistakes accumulated, so maybe there's a lot of stuff that he would have needed to do differently (even with such a tiny margin of defeat).

Not necessarily. If he won WI, GA, and AZ, he still would only have 269, and there could be enough never Trump republican to deny him the whitehouse in the house. He would need PA to ensure his victory.

[Mr.Phips]

Being incompetent.

[vitoNova]

Not displaying the calming empathy that the electorate desires during a time of crisis.