Was 2020 a good or bad election for the GOP?

[Progressive Pessimist]

A bad outcome that was just 0.6% away from being a great one for them. If Trump could get 74 million votes after everything he's done, the Republican Party may have a very strong floor going forward so stuff like the Capitol Riot could be pretty minor going forward.

But the question is whether Trump's performance in 2020 was a Trump exclusive thing or a Republican Party thing. That's pretty unclear as of right now but Democratic over-performance in off-year and special elections may suggest that is indeed the case where Trump being on the ballot was actually a boon to them. So if it was indeed all a Trump thing, the GOP might not be as strongly situated as they seem. Without him they may not get the enthusiasm that they need to win. Of course, that also assumes that voter coalitions remain the same. That's up in the air too.

What can be said for sure is that the GOP; losing the Senate, Presidency and all; still benefits more from our outdated Democratic institutions, unless those are changed in some significant way by the incoming Democratic trifecta.

[Pericles]

A bad outcome that was just 0.6% away from being a great one for them. If Trump could get 74 million votes after everything he's done, the Republican Party may have a very strong floor going forward so stuff like the Capitol Riot could be pretty minor going forward.

But the question is whether Trump's performance in 2020 was a Trump exclusive thing or a Republican Party thing. That's pretty unclear as of right now but Democratic over-performance in off-year and special elections may suggest that is indeed the case where Trump being on the ballot was actually a boon to them. So if it was indeed all a Trump thing, the GOP might not be as strongly situated as they seem. Without him they may not get the enthusiasm that they need to win. Of course, that also assumes that voter coalitions remain the same. That's up in the air too.

What can be said for sure is that the GOP; losing the Senate, Presidency and all; still benefits more from our outdated Democratic institutions, unless those are changed in some significant way by the incoming Democratic trifecta.

Trump did underperform the down ballot both times so maybe in a presidential year with a more appealing nominee (Trumpism without Trump might actually work if done well) there could be great potential for the Republican Party.

[Progressive Pessimist]

A bad outcome that was just 0.6% away from being a great one for them. If Trump could get 74 million votes after everything he's done, the Republican Party may have a very strong floor going forward so stuff like the Capitol Riot could be pretty minor going forward.

But the question is whether Trump's performance in 2020 was a Trump exclusive thing or a Republican Party thing. That's pretty unclear as of right now but Democratic over-performance in off-year and special elections may suggest that is indeed the case where Trump being on the ballot was actually a boon to them. So if it was indeed all a Trump thing, the GOP might not be as strongly situated as they seem. Without him they may not get the enthusiasm that they need to win. Of course, that also assumes that voter coalitions remain the same. That's up in the air too.

What can be said for sure is that the GOP; losing the Senate, Presidency and all; still benefits more from our outdated Democratic institutions, unless those are changed in some significant way by the incoming Democratic trifecta.

Trump did underperform the down ballot both times so maybe in a presidential year with a more appealing nominee (Trumpism without Trump might actually work if done well) there could be great potential for the Republican Party.

The variable is turnout though. That's what seems to determine elections more than anything nowadays. Contrary to what was thought during the Obama years, presidential turnout when Trump was on the ballot, especially among Republicans, seemed to be what always kept him in contention. Would a more conventional, mainstream Republican be able to replicate that?

[Pericles]

A bad outcome that was just 0.6% away from being a great one for them. If Trump could get 74 million votes after everything he's done, the Republican Party may have a very strong floor going forward so stuff like the Capitol Riot could be pretty minor going forward.

But the question is whether Trump's performance in 2020 was a Trump exclusive thing or a Republican Party thing. That's pretty unclear as of right now but Democratic over-performance in off-year and special elections may suggest that is indeed the case where Trump being on the ballot was actually a boon to them. So if it was indeed all a Trump thing, the GOP might not be as strongly situated as they seem. Without him they may not get the enthusiasm that they need to win. Of course, that also assumes that voter coalitions remain the same. That's up in the air too.

What can be said for sure is that the GOP; losing the Senate, Presidency and all; still benefits more from our outdated Democratic institutions, unless those are changed in some significant way by the incoming Democratic trifecta.

Trump did underperform the down ballot both times so maybe in a presidential year with a more appealing nominee (Trumpism without Trump might actually work if done well) there could be great potential for the Republican Party.

The variable is turnout though. That's what seems to determine elections more than anything nowadays. Contrary to what was thought during the Obama years, presidential turnout when Trump was on the ballot, especially among Republicans, seemed to be what always kept him in contention. Would a more conventional, mainstream Republican be able to replicate that?

Probably not, but they also wouldn't energise the same scale of opposition turnout that in 2020 probably outmatched pro-Trump turnout. So the path would be lower turnout overall but they could be lucky and have that hurt Democrats on net, while getting a better performance among swing voters. Biden may have also stopped the bottom falling out even further for Democrats among WWC voters, with actual economic populism against someone like Harris the Republicans could truly maximize their share among that demographic. Indeed, I think if the Republican Party moderates on economic issues that is better electorally than them moderating on social issues. Both college-educated and non college-educated whites would prefer a less rabidly trickle-down Republican Party,. Moderating on social issues on the other hand could lose as many non college-educated voters as it gains in educated voters.

[Progressive Pessimist]

A bad outcome that was just 0.6% away from being a great one for them. If Trump could get 74 million votes after everything he's done, the Republican Party may have a very strong floor going forward so stuff like the Capitol Riot could be pretty minor going forward.

But the question is whether Trump's performance in 2020 was a Trump exclusive thing or a Republican Party thing. That's pretty unclear as of right now but Democratic over-performance in off-year and special elections may suggest that is indeed the case where Trump being on the ballot was actually a boon to them. So if it was indeed all a Trump thing, the GOP might not be as strongly situated as they seem. Without him they may not get the enthusiasm that they need to win. Of course, that also assumes that voter coalitions remain the same. That's up in the air too.

What can be said for sure is that the GOP; losing the Senate, Presidency and all; still benefits more from our outdated Democratic institutions, unless those are changed in some significant way by the incoming Democratic trifecta.

Trump did underperform the down ballot both times so maybe in a presidential year with a more appealing nominee (Trumpism without Trump might actually work if done well) there could be great potential for the Republican Party.

The variable is turnout though. That's what seems to determine elections more than anything nowadays. Contrary to what was thought during the Obama years, presidential turnout when Trump was on the ballot, especially among Republicans, seemed to be what always kept him in contention. Would a more conventional, mainstream Republican be able to replicate that?

Probably not, but they also wouldn't energise the same scale of opposition turnout that in 2020 probably outmatched pro-Trump turnout. So the path would be lower turnout overall but they could be lucky and have that hurt Democrats on net, while getting a better performance among swing voters. Biden may have also stopped the bottom falling out even further for Democrats among WWC voters, with actual economic populism against someone like Harris the Republicans could truly maximize their share among that demographic. Indeed, I think if the Republican Party moderates on economic issues that is better electorally than them moderating on social issues. Both college-educated and non college-educated whites would prefer a less rabidly trickle-down Republican Party,. Moderating on social issues on the other hand could lose as many non college-educated voters as it gains in educated voters.

That is also definitely a possibility. There are many variables though and I think it all fits into the theme of our country's future still being very uncertain without Trump as President. We're just going to have to wait and see in 2022. We probably won't get much of an idea from 2021, the two gubernatorial races definitely favor Democrats and those are going to be after two very favorable Georgia runoffs to the party too.

[It's Time.]

A bad outcome that was just 0.6% away from being a great one for them. If Trump could get 74 million votes after everything he's done, the Republican Party may have a very strong floor going forward so stuff like the Capitol Riot could be pretty minor going forward.

But the question is whether Trump's performance in 2020 was a Trump exclusive thing or a Republican Party thing. That's pretty unclear as of right now but Democratic over-performance in off-year and special elections may suggest that is indeed the case where Trump being on the ballot was actually a boon to them. So if it was indeed all a Trump thing, the GOP might not be as strongly situated as they seem. Without him they may not get the enthusiasm that they need to win. Of course, that also assumes that voter coalitions remain the same. That's up in the air too.

What can be said for sure is that the GOP; losing the Senate, Presidency and all; still benefits more from our outdated Democratic institutions, unless those are changed in some significant way by the incoming Democratic trifecta.

Trump did underperform the down ballot both times so maybe in a presidential year with a more appealing nominee (Trumpism without Trump might actually work if done well) there could be great potential for the Republican Party.

Trump didn't really underperform downballot in 2020.

House Tipping Point: PA-17 (D+2.2)
Senate Tipping Point: Georgia Regular (D+1.2)
Presidential Tipping Point: Pennsylvania/Wisconsin (D+1.2) (D+0.6)

[Chips]

Bad.

[Skill and Chance]

Bad, but Dem expectations got way out of hand so it felt like something of a GOP overperformance, especially before the Georgia runoffs.   

[Mr. Smith]

A bad outcome that was just 0.6% away from being a great one for them. If Trump could get 74 million votes after everything he's done, the Republican Party may have a very strong floor going forward so stuff like the Capitol Riot could be pretty minor going forward.

But the question is whether Trump's performance in 2020 was a Trump exclusive thing or a Republican Party thing. That's pretty unclear as of right now but Democratic over-performance in off-year and special elections may suggest that is indeed the case where Trump being on the ballot was actually a boon to them. So if it was indeed all a Trump thing, the GOP might not be as strongly situated as they seem. Without him they may not get the enthusiasm that they need to win. Of course, that also assumes that voter coalitions remain the same. That's up in the air too.

What can be said for sure is that the GOP; losing the Senate, Presidency and all; still benefits more from our outdated Democratic institutions, unless those are changed in some significant way by the incoming Democratic trifecta.

Trump did underperform the down ballot both times so maybe in a presidential year with a more appealing nominee (Trumpism without Trump might actually work if done well) there could be great potential for the Republican Party.

Trump didn't really underperform downballot in 2020.

House Tipping Point: PA-17 (D+2.2)
Senate Tipping Point: Georgia Regular (D+1.2)
Presidential Tipping Point: Pennsylvania/Wisconsin (D+1.2) (D+0.6)

Not sure about the House PV, but the tippin point in the Senate was left of the vote by three points...meanwhile Wisconsin was 4 points riht of the nation.

Very peculiar.

[here2view]

Any election in which you lose the White House and Senate is a bad election.

[bee33]

Bad, though not terrible.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Lol Atlas is being hysterical. Republicans losing both the Senate and the Presidency, and therefore handing Democrats a trifecta, is a great election? Sure, it wasn't a Democratic landslide, but it's not like the only way an election can be good for Democrats is if they win a large landslide.

[Interlocutor]

Lol Atlas is being hysterical. Republicans losing both the Senate and the Presidency, and therefore handing Democrats a trifecta, is a great election? Sure, it wasn't a Democratic landslide, but it's not like the only way an election can be good for Democrats is if they win a large landslide.

If you told Dems in 2016 that they'd win a trifecta + 4 Senate seats in Arizona & Georgia during the next presidential election, they'd be over the moon. Instead, it's considered 'underwhelming'