2012 Electoral Vote Changes (user search)
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Author Topic: 2012 Electoral Vote Changes  (Read 21536 times)
jerusalemcar5
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,731
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -4.26, S: -8.35

« on: July 26, 2006, 12:15:26 AM »

You muon, check out my 2030 map in the Poltical Demographics board.  I'd like to see what you think.
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jerusalemcar5
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,731
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -4.26, S: -8.35

« Reply #1 on: July 28, 2006, 08:11:10 PM »

I decided to draw up a map for this too...

Blue=gain/Red=loss

+-3=90%
+-2=70%
+-1=50%

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jerusalemcar5
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,731
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -4.26, S: -8.35

« Reply #2 on: July 29, 2006, 09:52:08 PM »

OK is very unlikely to gain a seat back in 2010. The average growth rate in the US is about 1.0% per year. OK is estimated to have an overall growth rate of 0.5% per year. OK would need about 275,000 additional people beyond the current estimates to get close to another seat. Okla City may be growing well, but the rest of the state is way behind the nation in growth.

OR is growing at 1.2% per year, slightly faster than the national average. That puts it in line to get a seat after 2020, not after 2010. OR needs about 60,000 more people than expected to show up in the next five years to get a seat sooner.

The states closest to an extra seat are all projected losers that would avoid the loss: MN, MI, NY (lose 1 instead of 2), IL.  The states most at risk to come up short: FL (gain 2 instead of 3), AZ (gain 1 instead of 2), CA, PA (losing 2 instead of 1), and AL (depending on the long term effects of Katrina).

I just hope no single person in this entire country considers Oklahoma to be secondary or inferior to "the big states" such as California, Texas, New York, Florida, etc.  We may only have 7 EV's, but, especially in a closely divided electorate, all 7 EVs are just as important than California's 55 EVs or Texas' 34, etc.  The same goes for really small states such as Wyoming, the Dakotas, Montana, etc.  They only have 3, but all 3 are extremely vital to each candidate.

The issue is that those states for the most part DON'T have closely divided electorates.  On top of that they contain a fairly insignificant number of electors.

Going after states that can swing huge portions of the College is much more important.

However, if electors were given out proportionally then the story would be MUCH different.
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jerusalemcar5
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,731
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -4.26, S: -8.35

« Reply #3 on: July 31, 2006, 02:32:13 PM »

What about GA and NC they? Are they right on the line of gaining one more seat?

If you look, Georgia is getting one, I doubt they are close to second.

North Carolina hopefully isn't that close.  Bad state-doesn't deserve that many electors.
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jerusalemcar5
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,731
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -4.26, S: -8.35

« Reply #4 on: July 31, 2006, 05:00:09 PM »

What about GA and NC they? Are they right on the line of gaining one more seat?

If you look, Georgia is getting one, I doubt they are close to second.

North Carolina hopefully isn't that close.  Bad state-doesn't deserve that many electors.

Bad state?

He's a far left liberal crazy who thinks anybody in Southern states is evil. Ignore the evil.

That is not my view in the slightest and you know that.  I don't think the states are "evil" let alone the people.  I didn't even mention the people.

Simply, I don't like the politics, history, or current society of North Carolina.  I believe Georgia has made more strides in entering the mainstream of America, while North Carolina has not.
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