IN-GOV 2016: Mike Pence vs. John Gregg rematch

[Suburbia]

Gov. Mike Pence does not get picked by Donald Trump as his running mate in 2016, and stays in Indiana to deal with the backlash of his antigay record, etc.

He faces off against Democrat John Gregg in a rematch.

Who wins?

[Left Wing]

Gregg narrowly but he would win by high single digits if like Ted Cruz or Jeb Bush was the Republican nominee.

[Suburbia]

Gregg narrowly but he would win by high single digits if like Ted Cruz or Jeb Bush was the Republican nominee.

Cruz's evangelical appeal to the Midwest and South would not pull Pence to a win?

[Chips]

Pence still wins.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Pence wins by 8.

[Sir Mohamed]

Pence wins 51-46%, similar to the actual result. IN is just too red for a flip, even though Pence was not very popular.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Pence still wins. Starting in 2016, ticket-splitting began to decline sharply. Gregg's opportunity was 2012, unfortunately.

[Left Wing]

Pence wins by 8.

Pence wins 51-46%, similar to the actual result. IN is just too red for a flip, even though Pence was not very popular.

There is just no way Pence wins by more than or about the same as Holcomb. Pence's favorability was several points worse than Holcomb's for one. The Howey poll between Pence and Gregg showed a slight Pence lead in the margin of error with less undecideds than their Holcomb v. Gregg polls. These undecideds would likely break heavily for Gregg as people who are undecided when there is an incumbent running usually dislike that incumbent. Furthermore, without Pence on the ticket, Trump's second choice would have been Chris Christie or Newt Gringrich. If Trump picked Christie, the ticket would't have gotten strong evangelical turnout and would appeal more elitist than real life, dampening rural turnout. It's for sure a tossup, but Pence had a 40% approval rating in a state that voted 59% Rin 2016, that's enough of a divergence for a flip.

[Alcibiades]

I think Pence would have lost, even with Trump at the top of the ticket. His approvals were pretty poor, and there was much more ticket-splitting in 2016 than 2020, with Dems winning the governorships in WV and MT (and gubernatorial races tend to be much less nationalised and thus easy for the smaller statewide party to win anyway).