Which of these states will trend D in 2024?

[Alcibiades]

Tennessee maybe? It has the potential to be the next Georgia.

I don't see how you get this. Please explain.

As Nashville grows and attracts more college educated whites and minorities the vote share for Democrats will increase. A lot of the rural areas are close to maxed out for the GOP. And Knoxville and Chattanooga could easily be Democratic stronghold if Democrats bring out more voters from these cities. So to recap, rural areas are close to maxed out for the GOP, Nashville continues to grow and the surrounding suburbs are getting bluer, Chattanooga and Knoxville are getting bluer so if the GOP doesn’t find new voters outside of the rural areas and they keep bleeding support among the college educated, yes TN could very well be competitive one day.

Tennessee is nowhere near as black as Georgia, despite whites being pretty much as Republican. I think that’s a big barrier. Nashville makes up a smaller proportion of the state than Atlanta, and its suburbs are primarily white and Evangelical, unlike the ‘black Mecca’ reputation of Atlanta. Yes, there’s nowhere for the Dems to go but up in Tennessee, but don’t expect it to become anywhere near competitive any time soon.